Prediction Changed
11:48 AM 03/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Durrant, Chris
LeBlanc, Dominic
Leger, Omer
Milligan, Michael

Hon. Dominic LeBlanc

2006 Result:
Dominic LeBlanc **
Omer Leger
Neil Gardner
Anna Girouard
J. Frank Comeau

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 05 BC
This is a no-brainer. Dominic LeBlanc will win easily against aging Tory veteran Omer Léger, aged 77. Dominic's high national profile and potential leadership aspirations will bode well in his re-election. One of the safest Liberal seats in Canada by far!
08 09 29 Moriarty
All nominations are in. Given the NDP's candidate problems (losing Neil Gardner to replace him with a new comer in Durrant) I'm officially changing my prediction. Leger holds his support, the strong national NDP campaign will increase Durrant's take over Gardner's in the last election...but LeBlanc will hold with a healthy margin. Liberal Hold.
08 09 09 Moriarty
TCTC - According to the Conservative website they are fielding Omer Leger again. The NDP is holding its nomination meeting soon. Given Leger's strength in the last election and the anomaly of a potential strong NDP candidate I would move this riding to TCTC.
08 02 24 A.S.
There could be NDP strength here if Yvon Godin had coattails; but I feel that Angela Vautour's party switch did muss up the non/anti-Liberal Acadian apple cart a little--and all the more so for her making the move from PC to CPC rather than David Orcharding herself out of the party. And toss in Omer Leger + Harper's Quebec breakthrough in '06, and...hey, solid Tory second place maintained, Dom LeB plurality rather than majority. So Beausejour still isn't the hypersafe Liberal bastion it used to be, though it's safe enough to be safe...however, if Dion sinks to John Turner levels, it won't survive the way it did in 1984, I'll tell you that.
07 11 18 binriso
Another thing about this riding, the NDP actually came reasonably close to beating Chretien in 1990, despite it being then the safest Liberal seat in the province and the only one to resist the 1984 election. It was kinda close (well 4700 votes or so) and that was without a PC candidate who probably wouldve made it a bit closer. Although I guess it was in the NDP popular days of 1989-1990 at the end of Broadbent and beginning of Mclaughlin and its just a curiousity today.. only something big like EI cuts will bring this back to the NDP and Harper has to be leading the Liberals in NB by about 10-15% to win this and it seems both wont happen this election.
07 11 10 Jeff
The only time this riding didn't vote Liberal, it voted NDP. It was even Chretien's riding for a short time after he won the Liberal leadership. I haven't heard this riding talked about as an NDP taget since the 90s, and I think Angela Vautour's floorcrossing did heavy damage to them in the area (look at their 2000 results compared to 1997). Dominic Leblanc will win this easily.
07 09 09 Nick J Boragina
This riding was created a long while ago from the Kent and Westmorland ridings, in terms of population, Westmorland had, and still has a majority of the population in this riding. Why is that important? Simple, since 1935 there has only been one (1) time when the Liberals lost that part of the riding, and that was in 1997 when a very special set of circumstances allowed the NDP to win. Those circumstances do not exist this time, and so history will repeat itself, and the Liberals will win yet again.
07 06 06 binriso
Dominic will definitely win again, maybe by a smaller margin. Some NDP votes will probably come back to the center and 8000 will be quite alot for any conservative to overcome, even a star candidate.
LIB 44
CON 34
NDP 19
07 04 26 Pierre
No one ever sees Dominic Leblanc in Beausjour and never with ordinary people. I hear he lives in Moncton or Ottawa and summers in the riding. Now that his father is sick he cannot count on that influence anymore. He is not trusted by anyone in Ottawa...Chretien disowned him after he played footsie with the Martin crowd and now no one trusts him. If the tories can find a candidate like Claude Williams the popular Lord Minister he can be beat .No one ever heard of Angela Vautour and she beat him as an NDP then crossed to the PCs. This riding is in play.
07 04 01 tducey
Dominic Leblanc is a Liberal with a bright future in Canadian politics, add to that the fact that this has been Liberal for much of the past few years leads me to think that the Liberals hold on here.
07 03 28 M. Lunn
Asides from 1997, this is a very safe Liberal seat. It went Liberal in 1984 and this was the seat Chretien ran in to get a seat in the House of Commons in 1990. Even though New Brunswick is the province the Tories have the best chance for gains in Atlantic Canada as it is the most conservative and also they didn't shaft it like they did with Newfoundland & Labrador and Nova Scotia. However, this and Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe as well as Acadie-Bathurst for the NDP are three ridings the Tories definitely won't win.
07 03 26 Daniel
Dominic LeBlanc will we re-elected in a landslide; this riding was the only one that didn't go PC in the Mulroney sweep of '84, was the temporary riding of Jean Chretien when he became Liberal leader, and has only voted against the Liberals once in its history - and that was in 1997, when the riding went NDP. The NDP finished 3rd here last time, and Dominic LeBlanc has won handily in the last two elections; this riding's race is over before it began.

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