Prediction Changed
11:47 AM 03/04/2007

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Miramichi
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
New Democratic
Doucet, Donald A.
Liberal
Hubbard, Charles
Conservative
O'Neill-Gordon, Tilly
Green
Smith, Todd

Incumbent:
Hon. Charles Isaac Hubbard

2006 Result:
Charles Isaac Hubbard **
13960
Mike Morrison
11250
Jeannette Manuel-Allain
5587
Danny Gay
1640
John Welsford Bethell
587

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 10 09 binriso
156.34.218.25
Pretty much the only times throughout history that the Liberals have lost this riding (cept the 84 landslide) is when they got torpedoed by Independent Liberals and lost because of vote-splitting(almost happenend last time too or at least it made it much closer). Liberals should win with no problem this time by an increased margin.
08 10 09 JaneyC
156.34.209.220
I think the Conservatives have an excellent candidate in Tilley Gordon and if the party was not losing its magic momentum, sh might cut into Hubbard's support but he is a long time fixture on the Hill and is a polite, kind, decent honest man - a rare thing in politics, alas, and h will be returning to Ottawa. Even if he gets most of the students he taught over the years he will do well, lol Seriously, Mr. Hubbard is a good MP and while Tilly gave him an excellent debate on Rogers and will put up a superb campaign, he will win. (and that TJ article is just so wrong!) They were marching on way when every other poll was saying something else and I am curious as to why? It made no sense to me.
08 10 07 Al
24.79.92.104
Too close to call. According to the most recent polls for New Brunswick (see: http://telegraphjournal.canadaeast.com/front/article/439340 ) The CPC is 10% points ahead of the Liberals. That means Miramichi is definitely too close to call.
08 10 07 Al
24.79.92.104
Too close to call. According to the most recent polls for New Brunswick (see: http://telegraphjournal.canadaeast.com/front/article/439340 ) The CPC is 10% points ahead of the Liberals. That means Miramichi is definitely too close to call.
08 02 12 A.S.
99.233.96.153
Historically mostly Liberal, Miramichi's an odd patchwork seat to read--it's the old home base for CoR leader Arch Pafford, yet too much that's Acadian (or residually McKenna-populist) gets in the way of ToryReformAllianceCoR strength. Charles Hubbard serves as a good enough proxy for it all, anyway--who needs Tories. (Then again, fellow New Brunswick Liberal Andy Savoy wasn't saved by his own conservatism in '06...)
07 09 26 Daniel
156.34.69.138
Having spent the first 18 years of my life in the riding, here's some extra insight:
If the right Conservative and the wrong Liberal were the candidates in this riding, it could flip CPC. However, in the past few elections, the opposite seems to have been true: Hubbard is very well-liked; his opponents, not so much. Not to mention the fact that this area *does* tend to go with the Liberals more often than not. The statement that this area is a bellweather provincially isn't all that accurate, either - in fact, it often wildly bucks the trend. Northumberland County ridings were among the few Anglophone ridings that consistently voted against the Hatfield Tories during their 17-year reign; the anti-bilingual COR party elected a member in this area in 1991, despite the fact that Premier Frank McKenna's riding was in Miramichi as well; most provincial seats in the area went heavily Liberal in 2003, despite the fact that Lord's Tories were re-elected.
So what am I getting at? Well, despite this area's small-c conservative nature, it usually takes a political shift of epic proportions for it to vote anything but Liberal. (The only time a Tory was elected federally here in the past 60 years was in the Mulroney landslide of 1984). Of course, with the death of Liberal strongholds in rural Eastern Ontario (benefitting the Conservatives exclusively), the weakening of Liberal strongholds in Montreal, and the Conservatives making inroads among francophones (who, let's not forget, make up a significant minority in this riding), could it all add up to a Conservative win in Miramichi? Chances are....no, it won't. Being a Liberal or Conservative here is more akin to being a Leafs fan or a Canadiens fan, rather than being for or against anything to do with policy.
07 09 18 Nick J Boragina
74.13.125.185
This would normally be a riding that should go CPC, or at least possibly go CPC due to right-wing tendencies here. Its the local candidate who defuses the threat. Hubbard has been called the most right-wing Liberal in caucus due to his social views. In this English-but-catholic area of New Brunswick, there has always been confusion as to who they would vote for? The Liberals in the province have traditionally won in Catholic areas, while the Tories have won in English areas. Id have to double check to be sure, but as far as I know, provincially this a bellwether, tipping in favour of the winner. Without Hubbard, it could do the same Federally, but so long as Hubbard remains, it will likely remain Liberal.
07 06 13 binriso
156.34.220.155
Well NB is the only province in the Atlantic where the CPC could actually make gains. However this seat is going back to the Liberals as Charles Hubbard survived last time by about 3000 votes with essentially an indepenedent Liberal candidate getting 1600. I doubt he will lose next election and will probably win by close to 4000 votes.
07 04 14 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
67.71.56.197
Ya know, we are not at all in agreement with everyone else it seems. We do not feel that Miramichi is a sure-Liberal win. 2500 votes or so separate the Liberals and the Conservatives last time. Mr. Hubbard is supposed to be popular but that is kinda close. The facts remain that the Conservatives are up, the Liberals are down and New Brunswick is the most conservative of the Atlantic provinces. We still say that the Liberals have the advantage, but they are definitely vulnerable.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
Unlike Fredericton, Madawaska-Restigouche, and Saint John which are all vulnerable, I think Charles Hubbard is reasonably safe. It is not an ultra safe riding like Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe or Beausejour, but unless the Tories get a star candidate, I suspect this will stay Liberal.
07 03 25 Daniel
156.34.85.213
Even with former provincial Liberal Danny Gay running in the last election, Hubbard still held on by a couple of thousand votes. Hubbard hasn't always won by landslides, but he's always won - something Liberals tend to do in this riding. Coupled with Hubbard's personal popularity, this riding will stay Liberal unless some sort of Mulroney-esque groundswell begins to bolster the Tories nationally.



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