Prediction Changed
4:24 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

New Brunswick Southwest
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Boucher, Robert Wayne
New Democratic
Graham, Andrew
MacIntosh, Nancy
Thompson, Greg

Hon. Greg Thompson

2006 Result:
Greg Thompson **
Stan Smith
Andrew Graham
Erik Millett

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 02 16 A.S.
There's a curious old-school PC propriety to Greg Thompson. After all, he hasn't ‘misbehaved’ himself out of caucus a la fellow Maritime 1993 near-survivor Bill Casey; he isn't prone to outrageous statements a la Elsie Wayne; he's clean of the ReformAllianceCoR thing; etc. He's just...very dutifully Maritime-electable, as if it were the Stanfield days forever, and Harper was just an incidental current condition. Unless a Maritime backlash to Harper sinks to catastrophic wipeout levels, no reason for things to be different this time, zzzzzz...
08 02 06 A. Lewis
There's no way a Veterans Affairs Minister of any stripe could be defeated in the Maritimes. There are too many veterans and relatives of veterans who want the access that having the local MP be the Minister always brings.
The Conservatives however have behaved fully as badly as the Liberals with respect to Gagetown and the Atomic Veterans exposed to A-bomb test blasts in the US while serving for Canada. There's nothing to be proud of in Thompson's performance, even the US managed to recognize and compensate the veterans of those bomb tests. It's appalling, shameful and typical of Harper's cabinet. But those veterans don't vote here, and many others do.
Even if Thompson steps down, the Conservatives will still likely win due to the strong organization a Cabinet Minister can build with the money he can raise just by showing up.
07 10 01 Nick J Boragina
Thompson nearly won this riding in 1993, despite the PCs being nearly destroyed, if he can do that well in the worst election in tory history, he certainly can do better in this election, where some expect the tories to actually win a majority. Easy win, one of the safest tory ridings in the atlantic.
07 08 08 R.D.
The Toronto Star reports speculation that three cabinet ministers may not run for reelection: Trade Minister David Emerson in Vancouver Kingsway, Immigration Minister Diane Finley in Haldimand-Norfolk, and Veteran's Affairs Minister Greg Thompson in New Brunswick Southwest.
While this riding still skews Conservative, I think if Thompson steps down the Liberals at least have a chance.
07 05 21 Binriso
Thompson is bullet-proof. Unlike most MP's he actually wins more than 50% of the votes routinely.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
This almost went PC in 1993 so a very safe conservative riding and add to the fact Greg Thompson is very popular here, so Conservatives in a landslide once again.
07 03 23 Daniel
Thompson has easily won this riding in every election since 1997. There would be almost no chance of him losing this riding, even if he WASN'T the Veteran Affairs minister. I expect an even bigger margin of victory this time around.

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