Prediction Changed
3:15 PM 27/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Saint John
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Moffat, Michael
New Democratic
Mowery, Tony
Richardson, Mike
Weston, Rodney
Zed, Paul

Paul Zed

2006 Result:
Paul Zed **
John Wallace
Terry Albright
Vern M. Garnett

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 09 JaneyC
Paul Zed will win here. He is a good MP regardless of what one thinks of him. The previous NDP candidate , Terr Albright, is working for him this tim around and they are not a threat. Neither is the Conservative candidate who comes from a community outside of the city which will not st well with Saint Johners. And while yes, I know that Mr. Zed lived in the burbs, he grew up in Sain John and his family is there. Mr. Weston just does not have the ability and natural political retail politics that Paul Z has. It is why he did not win re-election provincially.
I suspect if he had an excellent chance, Mr. Lord would be campaigning for him as much as h works for Mr. Allain in Moncton who also has an uphill battle.
08 09 18 len
Mr Watters cannot be living in Saint John, perhaps he is living in St. Martins NB where Rodney Weston lives. Weston was the one term MLA and Lord crony who was soundly defeated like his boss Bernard Lord who is still detested by most Saint Johners. Like him or not, Paul has worked extremely hard for his community, and has delivered great things for the city. He is respected as a hard worker by everyone. Zed will win this one handily.
08 09 17 David Watters
This will be a close one. Zed can be defeated, as he was in Fundy-Royal in 1997. Saint John, like Fundy-Royal, is a Tory haven. If Zed could loose, and by a significant margin, in Fundy-Royal to then first time candidate John Herron - then I suspect he could be in trouble with the likable, and experienced, Rodney Weston.
08 09 15 Maritimer
I believe this will be a closer race than many have predicted below. I do believe that Zed will hang onto the seat, with a fight. If Zed wasn't a good constituency MP, the Conservatives could pick this one up. Zed has proven himself to be a tireless worker, campaigner in the riding, and I think it will be just enough once again. Zed by less than 1,000.
08 09 15 nbpolitico
This riding is going to be close. Paul Zed was elected by only 3% last time around and the Green Shift is very unpopular in a riding where most jobs come from an oil refinery with many more jobs pinned on a proposed second, larger refinery. The Conservative candidate is former Agriculture Minister and Bernard Lord chief of staff Rodney Weston who will be much formidable than the candidates presented by the Tories in 2004 and 2006.
08 09 09 TLeBlanc
I gotta say - I'm shocked at how tight Zed has this one. I was passing through the riding on my way to work for the Conservatives in South-West and snook into the Zed rally. A medium sized office filled to the walls with eager supporters and a sophisticated online presence.
08 09 04 Wes Alward
I used to work for the Progressive Conservatives . My friends who are still there say that the sacrificial lamb against Paul Zed will be the one term MLA who was badly beaten in his rural riding near Saint John, Rodney Weston. He has never held a job outside of politics. He doesn't live in the riding and was almost as disliked by both the unions and the business community of Saint John as Lord was, so unfortunately for the party, watch for Zed to make a big gain in voter share here.This is a natural Tory seat but Zed is starting to own this town,both the seniors groups and the youth like his team approach.
08 09 01 mrs mary h kupkee
Paul Zed by a country mile. The Tory candidate Deputy Mayor Stephen Chase will get chased out of the job like his first cousin Michelle Hooton was last year when she ran provincially. Watch for Zed to be elected early Oct 14.
08 08 28 Political Junkie
While my gut tells me that Paul Zed should hang on to Saint John, maybe even by a substantial margin, the new wild card in this race will be the reaction to Dion's Carbon Tax proposals, which may find a cool reception in a city that is about to enjoy an economic boom as a result of making itself into an ?energy hub,? and one based largely on fossil fuels. Of course, the number of voters who may fear that a carbon tax could hurt their own economic prospects may be small enough to be insignificant.
The Conservatives however don't have a candidate nominated yet, which may hamper their chances. The NDP meanwhile are a non-entity here, the provincial party having been all but wiped out during the 2006 NB provincial election and suffering further with the defection of 2004-06 NDP candidate Terry Albright to the Liberals.
08 04 13 binriso
The CPC actually swung quite a few votes closer over in the last election, oddly though the NDP % dropped significantly and probably will continue to do so if it is a close race. Still its almost assuredly Liberal, the CPC were almost tied in NB last time, theyd have to be ahead by quite a bit to win here.
Interestingly in 1993, The Liberal candidate from 1988 ran as an independent and won 11% of the vote. Liberal+Independent Liberal votes added together wouldve beaten Elsie Wayne(who actually gained half a percent or so from 1988s PC results). The CPC definitely do have a chance with a good candidate, which might just put them over the top if they are polling strongly in NB.
07 11 17 Stevo
Surprised that so many here, even the usually astute A.S., can't tell the difference between the different Atlantic provinces. Atlantic Canada is not a monolith. I really don't think people in Saint John, NB, care about some dispouted oil contract off the coast of Newfoundland. I don't say this to imply that Saint Johners are indifferent, but they have their own issues to worry about and won't likely buy into the whole ‘Atlantic Canada solidarity’ nonsense. New Brunswick is one of the most small-c conservative provinces in the country, but the Liberals maintain a stronghold because of their brand. I predict that Paul Zed will indeed hang on because of his personal popularity and because, unlike Tobique-Mactaquac, this urban is far more likely to stay Liberal regardless of who is running.
07 11 10
The comment about Elsie Wayne is delusional, but I do think that the Liberals are getting a bit better established in the Port City (or Loyalist City or Fundy City, whatever they're calling it these days). Zed's winning over people with his constituency work, and the Conservatives have their eyes focused elsewhere in the province. I think Zed will probably get re-elected, unless the Conservatives are in majority territory - but the right Conservative candidate could change that.
07 11 06 FGW
The previous submission that compares urban Saint John to a northern rural seat like Tobique knows little about NB. I agree that they were both Progressive Conservative strongholds for years but Zed has recruited all those people to his team. The Saint John PC's intensely dislike the Tory leader Volpe and the word on the street is that Harpers crowd can't get a candidate to run against Zed and Harpers brand is not popular in Atlantic. If Zed runs this is a Liberal riding but I agree ....watchout if he retires.
07 11 06 Daniel Hambrook
Well, ye-of-the-same-name-as-me, Zed may enjoy personal popularity, but comparing him to Elsie Wayne? I disagree; if the Liberals were reduced to 2 seats nationally, Saint John would most definitely NOT be one of them. In fact, a 2000 vote margin of victory, for all of Zed's supposed popularity in a Liberal-friendly region of the country, seems a bit slim. Granted, as I've stated, Zed may have enough gravitas to rise above his party's national fortunes, but he certainly isn't immune from them.
07 11 05 daniel
Zed has become the new Elsie Wayne. I am a provincial PC and tell you that Harpers Conservatives even in majority territory do not stand a chance against him. Ask past candidates like McVicor and Wallace, even the NDP candidate in both 04 and 06 is now with Zed. He is unfortunately there for as long as he wants regardless of the Liberal leader or Conservative standing which in the Atlantic is pretty awful.
07 11 03 A.S.
This riding will only be easily won by the Conservatives if they're within majority territory ***and*** they overcome any accrued anti-CPC Maritime bad blood (cf. the Bob Casey affair, etc). In actuality, and given those potential obstacles, Saint John isn't small C conservative *enough*--that is, it's more traditionally *Progressive* Conservative, as opposed to the ReformAllianceConfederation-of-Regions leanings elsewhere within New Brunswick. (So Elsie Wayne was in the PC right wing, big deal; she was still PC, and more to the point, she was Elsie.)
07 10 31 C B
Make no mistake...if the Conservatives are within majority territory, this riding will quite easily be won by them. Zed is not above a Conservative majority, this riding is much too small C conservative for him to keep it, especially given the margin of victory last election.
07 10 30 Daniel
If this were a riding located in any other Atlantic Province with Zed as Liberal MP, I'd predict a Liberal hold without question. But with the gap between the Tories and Liberals being consistently shown as 10 points or more in multiple national polls, I don't think this is a lock. Paul Zed's situation actually resembles that of a former Liberal MP in a nearby riding - Andy Savoy in Tobique-Mactaquac. Savoy was a much-beloved, humble constituency MP, but when push came to shove, those same constituents gave him the heave-ho when things started trending toward the Tories.
The same could easily happen to Zed - if support numbers remain stagnant compared to the last election or improve for the Liberals, Zed will be fine, but if there's any significant trend toward the Conservatives in the final stretch, he'll lose his seat. Slight advantage to the Liberals for now, though.
07 09 15 shirley
Zed’s efforts for the troops with the free mail issue and his push to get the Harbour clean put him on solid ground to get reelected. He is in this seat for as long as he wants to run.
07 06 27 Stevo
Easy hold for Paul Zed, I don't know why this is still listed as TCTC. He's a very good and humble constituency MP, and very popular in Saint John, almost as much so as his Progressive Conservative predecessor as MP, Elsie Wayne. Although I predict several pickups for the Tories in New Brunswick - the Atlantic Accord dispute, while deadly for Tory chances in the other three Atlantic provinces, will have virtually no impact in NB, by far the most conservative province in the region - Paul Zed can rest easy.
07 06 19 binriso
Well it seems Paul Zed has been a pretty good MP for Saint John and has worked hard for them. He'll be reelected again most likely by a slightly increased margin.
07 05 07 C Marlowe
Since becoming MP for Saint John, Zed has built a solid organization and reputation in the riding. The last election and its aftermath was a testament to that fact. In a Tory year, a riding with solid Tory potential stayed Liberal. A convincing victory for Zed. Furthermore, his NDP rival from 2006, Terry Albright, has signed on to be his policy chair for the next election.
Since then, he has been so visible and so active in the community that his re-election prospects are very strong. Regardless of the national outcomes, Zed should be re-elected in Saint John.
07 04 19
Paul Zed is doing a great job especially with this team Saint John concept. I voted Green last time and was not sure about Zed but he is positive, professional and has been very very active in every aspect of the community. The NDP candidate in the last 2 elections has left that party and become the policy chair for Mr Zed and that has helped Zeds credibility on the left. Zed is everywhere and is credited by the environmental movement with getting all of the parties on side with Harbour clean up and will be easily in the win column whenever the next election is called.
I have it on good authority that the Conservatives cannot find a candidate to run against Zed. The mla Margaret Ann Blaney was considering a run but barely hung on to her Rothesay seat by 20 votes and Zed is seen as very strong with both union leaders and business people and Blaney did nothing when she was a minister in the Lord government before she was dumped by Lord. Her silence over the very unpopular Harper budget has ended her campaign before it begins. Word in Tory headquarters is that she polls worse than John Wallace who tried to unseat Zed twice and now is popular in both Rothesay and across Saint John. Zed wins big this time even if Harper wins because he has delivered more in opposition in two years than the previous 2 MP's combined in the past 10 years.Seniors and young people like this Zed guy for his hard work in the community and they vote in Saint John.
07 04 10 John
This time around it look's as though Zed will win easily, he has no competition considering he has had his toughest challenge behind him in John Wallace. Zed has delivered on all of his campaign promises most importantly harbor clean up.
07 04 01 Daniel
The Tories thought that this would be the first Liberal NB riding to fall in the last election, but Zed proved to be harder to knock off that was initially thought. I don't think this riding is the Conservatives' best chance for a pickup in NB (that honour goes to Madawaska-Restigouche), but it's certainly in play. Zed has a decent chance of being re-elected, but look for Saint John to be heavily targeted by both parties in the federal campaign. If the Conservative numbers are even remotely higher in NB this time around than they were last time around, Zed will probably lose his seat.

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