La prévision a changé
3:09 PM 12/10/2008

Projet D'Élection Prévision

Brossard-La Prairie
élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

Brossard, Maurice
Chouinard, Normand
Bloc Québécois
Lussier, Marcel
New Democratic
Mai, Hoang
Mendes, Alexandra
Ziadé, Sonia

Marcel Lussier

2006 Résultats:
Marcel Lussier
Jacques Saada **
Tenzin D. Khangsar
Robert Nicolas
François Desgroseilliers
Normand Chouinard

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 10 12 JPC
I think the Bloc will keep this seat due to the important francophone population in Laprairie/Candiac but it will be a close Liberal for the second place...
Conservatives have no chance to win this seat.
08 09 21 Mike Berthold
This is going to be an interesting riding to watch. On the one hand you have the BQ incumbent in a mainly federalist riding that only flipped due to the sponsorship scandal. On the other you have the Liberal candidate, a local community organizer (and relative unknown outside the small Portuguese community on the south shore) instead of Denis Paradis, who seems to believe his chances are better back in Brome-M. On the third you have the Conservative candidate who is actually a Brossard from the founding family of the city of Brossard.
Any of these results would leave me unsurprised:
-Liberals take back traditional seat
-Conservative with name achieves breakthrough in Montreal's backyard
-BQ incumbent maintains seat due to fed. vote splitting
I'd say if the Tories are polling even or ahead of the Bloc on election day this will switch to Conservative, incredibly enough.
08 09 11 Bob
With no information on the Libs plus infighting, it is a race between the Tories and Bloc as it represent the titanic struggle between the two parties
08 09 07 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
I may take some heat for this posting but I think this will be one of the few three-way races in Quebec. Not that there is really much support for actual Tory policies in this riding but rather that there is enough soft nationalists in this riding who will switch to the CPC. This will raise CPC numbers at the expense of the BQ. There is still a fair amount of core Liberal support in this ethnically diverse riding, as well Paradis is a big name. If compelled to make a prediction, I'd say it'd be one of the few Liberal take backs in Quebec and probably the only one off the island of Montreal. Never the less, for now the best prediction is TCTC.
08 08 19 binriso
Isn’t Denis Paradis running for the Liberals here? if so they should win, he’s pretty popular for surviving until 06 and this is normally a strong federalist seat. Id say a tight win with the BQ vote falling below the Liberals with both at about 30-35% CPC around 20, NDP about 10-15 and Greens further back below 5%.
08 08 17 T.V.
If Saada were running, I'd say the Liberals will probably take it back. With a new candidate I think the Liberal vote will drop significantly. It just depends on whether the Bloc drops more.
08 02 16 A.S.
At this point in the game with Dion in the doldrums, how anyone can be so thoroughly confident about the Liberals taking this one back is beyond me--though they certainly won't be giving it up easily, either. In fact, a few ADQ-honeymoonish months ago there might have been greater *Tory* than Liberal likelihood here; or at least one of Quebec's strongest three-way prospects...
07 09 23 JP Caron
Le poids de la Ville de Brossard (qui est très multiculturel) n'est plus aussi important qu'auparavant avec la poussée démographique des autres villes (très homogène) de la circonscription (Laprairie, Candiac et Saint-Philippe). Je doute que les libéraux reprennent le siège aussi facilement.
07 06 07 binriso
No doubt this one will go back to the Liberals. Bloc barely won here in 06 anyways thanks to vote splitting. Although the Conservatives will probably do similarly well, the Bloc vote will definitely decline enough to put the Liberals over the top.
07 04 07 Stéphane Gaudet
Un des premiers sièges que les libéraux devraient reprendre au Québec. Un siège libéral, perdu de très peu à cause du scandale des commandites et des révélations de la Commission Gomery. Maintenant que c'est chose du passé, le siège devrait naturellement revenir aux libéraux, peu importent les candidats. Je ne vois pas du tout les électeurs fédéralistes de Brossard punir deux fois les libéraux pour cela, ils devraient revenir à leurs amours habituelles cette fois-ci.

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