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Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

New Democratic
Boivin, Françoise
Inglis, David
Bloc Québécois
Nadeau, Richard
Simard, Michel
Tassé, Denis

Richard Nadeau

2006 Résultats:
Richard Nadeau
Françoise Boivin **
Patrick Robert
Anne Levesque
Gail Walker

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 10 11 thecynical1
Le Droit appuie Françoise Boivin. Le Droit endorses Françoise Boivin.
08 10 10 Full Name
A four-way fight.
The conservatives, the liberals and the NDP will each get around 20-25% of the vote, Richard Nadeau will get above 30% if not 35%.
The conservative candidate, Denis Tassé and the liberal candidate, Michel Simard are invisible.
Francoise Boivin is highly controversial. Many people of the NDP will join the bloc, because of Boivin's liberal past and her harsh language. Unfortunately for her, she won't get her revenge on Richard Nadeau even with Mulcair's help. The non-separatists nationalists hate her and so do the separatists.
Bloc hold.
08 10 10 Joshua Zuckerman
BQ MP Richard Nadeau was endorsed today by PSAC (Public Service Alliance of Canada). This could allow him to maintain his small advantage in this riding.
08 10 08 Joshua Zuckerman
This was a seat the Liberals may have had a chance at re-taking, but with former Liberal MP Francoise Boivin running for the NDP, she may split the vote between the Liberals and the NDP and help the Bloc get elected. A poll earlier this month showed the BQ with a small lead here, but that does not guarantee they will win. The Liberals could still have a shot here since their poll numbers in Quebec have risen since the French debate.
On CTV's Question Period this week, Quebec analysts Antonia Maioni and Jean Lapierre predicted that the NDP is unlikely to win any seats in Quebec other than Outremont, so the NDP predictions here may be overconfident.
We will know on October 14th.
08 10 03 C.L.
Gatineau is going to break the tradition again... it's between the Bloc and the NDP and Boivin will win by 2 or 3% from what I heard at the Promenades. Forget about the Liberals though.
08 10 03 saar
Boivin is likely to beat the odds here, and I don't think the poll of a few days ago is quite representative as thecynical1 said. Expect her to get a lot of last minute switch votes and the NDP to win Gatineau.
08 09 29 thecynical1
Il reste encore 20% d'indécis dans ce sondage et 43% des gens pensent changer d'opinion. Simple mention.
Françoise Boivin peut récolter 17% des indécis à ce moment.
08 09 29
Belle division du vote fédéraliste entre libéraux NPD et conservateurs. Le Bloc va garder le compté. Sondage du compté commandé par Gesca confirme.
08 09 29 Stéphane Gaudet
Oubliez une victoire du NPD ici, Françoise Boivin est troisième selon le sondage Segma. Si au moins elle était deuxième dans une lutte serrée, je pourrais y croire, mais pour le moment, la réélection de Richard Nadeau sur division du vote fédéraliste demeure le scénario le plus probable. En somme, ce ne serait que la répétition de 2006.
08 09 29 J.F. Breton
Malheureusement pour le NPD, division du vote fédéraliste. Sondage CROP - LeDroit - Groupe Gesca entre le 23 et 27 septembre, avec marge d'erreur de 5%, 19 fois sur 20.
Richard Nadeau, BQ 32%
Denis Tassé, PCC 22%
Françoise Boivin, NPD 21%
Michel Simard, PLC 20%
David Inglis, VERT 5%
Plusieurs diront que nous sommes dans la limite de la marge d'erreur, mais la tendance générale semble bien être à la division du vote fédéraliste.
08 09 29 DS
Seems like the people here know and trust Boivin, and the NDP is a much more natural fit for her than the Liberals were. This isn't a sovereignist riding - it just happened to go BQ last time out of frustration with the Liberals. Boivin felt that frustration too, and found a party she can stand up for.
08 09 25 david m.
i recently spent a few days in ottawa/gatineau and i've changed my mind about this one. despite being generally pessimistic about the ndp's chances, talking to people, the riding feels like it's going to go ndp. almost everyone i talked with was voting ndp for the first time. as an aside, i'd like to note that, in general, the francophone media in quebec have been far more positive on the ndp than their anglophone corollaries. this is especially the case in montreal-based publications, and i imagine it owes to a general sense of novelty about the ndp here, as well as a genuine alignment of ideology. a spectacular performance by layton in the french language debate could really shake things up, opening up some races (jeanne-le ber), dooming others (trudeau in papineau), putting the fear of god into people like pablo rodriguez and christiane gagnon, and putting duceppe into an even more difficult position as he tries to tack nationalistic/anti-government on the one hand, and quebec voice of the urban left on the other. a further aside: two ndp seats in quebec, wow.
08 09 25 Porter
Today's Ottawa Citizen predicts the NDP will take this riding:
‘Gatineau is held by the Bloc's Richard Nadeau; he owes his seat to the sponsorship scandal when he upset Liberal Françoise Boivin, but he hasn't consolidated his hold. Ms. Boivin is back with a vengeance as one of Layton's ‘Quebec stars,’ and she will likely take the riding.’
08 09 24 Bob
Vincent Marissal prédit une victoire de l'NPD! (La Presse du 23 septembre)
08 09 23 Joey Joe Joe
NDP you've got to be kidding me. They would need a 200% increase in their vote to match what the Bloc candidate needed to win last time!
With the Bloc down badly this will fall back to the Liberals as it did in for most of its recent history.
08 09 17
The NDP is deploying a lot of efforts here and unlike last time Duceppe is hardly around Gatineau. Same goes with Harper. Surprisingly Dion has not even made an appearance in this traditional Liberal stronghold. It seems this one has been conceeded to the NDP.
08 09 16 J. M.
The NDP is polling high in Quebec, and Gatineau won't be a 4-way but 3-way race. The Liberals just aren't in the race, they will scrape a few votes but they are almost ruled out which is scary for that party in this once Liberal stronghold. As many have said, Boivin is likely to profit from that shortcoming and win the seat for the NDP.
08 09 15 Pierre from Québec
I predict a big NPD victory here. Jack Layton campaigned this Sunday in Gatineau while all other national leaders were resting. This is the second time Jack Layton visited the ridding (he started the campaign trail from here).
François Boivin has a strong support among workers, women, youth and pensioners, and this is enough to assure her a big win. Recent polls show the BQ as low as 6%. A lot of BQ votes are migrating to the NPD. Pierre DuCasse is running in Hull-Aymer and his high-profile is also helping the NDP in Gatineau.
08 09 13 S. Caron
Gatineau can replicate the Outremont effect and get a lot of Bloc people going NDP. That's why I don't agree with M. Tremblay. I think the Bloc will be close but this one is very likely going orange with Françoise Boivin.
08 09 12 Paul Tremblay
Francoise Boivin will steal many votes from the Liberals, on account mainly of name recognition, but I can't see how she could steal enough votes to win the riding. A good proportion of the 2006 Liberal voters are diehard Liberals who will vote Liberal no matter what. Then there are those who are Liberals and who are pissed off by her defection... they can't be expected to vote for the NDP.
Bloc voters have no reason to vote NDP in order to block the Liberals and/or the Conservatives when they have an incumbent MP of their party.
The end result will be that Boivin's candidacy will contribute to split the vote and allow the Bloc to keep the seat.
As ironic as this may sound I believe that a sizeable proportion of the Bloc MPs after this election will be from strongly federalist ridings, and will have been re-elected solely due to vote-splitting.
08 09 10 Richard Provenceau
Richard Nadeau et le Bloc devront se battre très fort pour conserver Gatineau. L'Outaouais n'est pas une région traditionellement souvrainiste et la tendance s'est confirmée à l'élection provinciale de 2007 lorsque les candidats du Parti Québécois (dont l'épouse de M. Nadeau, Édith Gendron dans Chapleau) ont perdu par une marge de 5000 à 11 000 voix en Outaouais, ce qui confirme sans doute - comme plusieurs observateurs l'ont mentionné - que la victoire de M. Nadeau en 2006 pouvait s'expliquer par un refus de la population de réélire une députée libérale après le scandale des commandites et la comission Gomery, et cela n'était pas en lien avec la qualité de Françoise Boivin comme députée lors de son mandat.
Ceci étant dit, étant donné le fait que les Libéraux ont un candidat inconnu qui n'a ni site web, ni pancarte, ils auront maille à partir dans le comté car ils sont pratiquement invisibles. Il est tout à fait raisonnable de croire qu'un bon nombre de gens qui votent tradtionellement Libéral tenteront un terrain nouveau avec le NPD, car ils ont une candidate bien connue. Le défi serait plus difficle pour les néo-démocrates si Boivin ne se présentait pas pour eux car le parti n'est pas très connu au Québec. Si elle n'aurait pas choisi de se présenter pour eux, je crois que le comté aurait pu passer aux Conservateurs. Boivin a des chances raisonnables de l'emporter.
08 09 11 Acajack
As people have pointed out, this riding features two former Liberals (Denis Tass? of the Tories and Fran?oise Boivin now of the NDP) in addition to the official Liberal candidate Michel Simard against incumbent Bloquiste Richard Nadeau. So three Liberals vs. one BQ guy. A few days ago, the Ottawa Citizen wondered if (hoped that?) the federalist vote might ?coalesce? around one candidate (likely Boivin). The other very real possibility is that the federalist vote will be split three ways, while Nadeau comes up the middle since all the ?seppies? are going to vote for him in a block (no pun intended).
A lot is being made of Boivin?s popularity these days but don?t forget that 2006 was basically a one-on-one between Nadeau and Boivin (the Tory and NDP candidates were weak) and he beat her squarely by several thousand votes. He gave her a run for her money in the previous election as well, but Boivin won that close one by about 800 votes. Of course, both of these elections were in the Gomery fallout period.
This time is different. Nadeau can?t surf on the post-Gomery anti-Liberal sentiment anymore, and both the Tories and NDP are stronger forces in Quebec than they were in the two previous elections. But both the Liberal and the Tory candidates appear relatively weak so far (but it?s still early). Also, keep in mind that as popular as she is, Fran?oise Boivin won?t have the huge local Liberal machine behind her this time (which still couldn?t help her beat Nadeau in 2006), but rather an NDP skeleton crew which is still taking baby steps in the riding of Gatineau.
08 09 10 LF
The fact that the newly named Liberal candidate Michel Simard is not known combined with the low numbers of the Liberal party in Quebec will create a transfer of traditional red votes to the NDP and Conservatives who will split the federalist vote, probably ruling out the possibility of a Liberal victory here.
The person who can benefit the most of the situation is Françoise Boivin, since the NDP had a fairly good showing last election considering it had a University student as a candidate. Boivin will also be able to get the soft-sovereignist and people who voted Bloc out of prostest in 2006, as well as Liberals who do not feel the party represents them anymore. Therefore she has a huge pool of potential support, something other candidates do not necessarily have.
Interestingly enough I predict an substantial increase in Conservative vote, considering local businessman and councillor Denis Tassé is the highest profile Conservative in Gatineau for quite a long time, who will get Quebec nationalist votes, traditional Conservatives and also former Liberals, given his family's ties and his involvement in the community. The Conservatives will land 2nd or 3rd but within a few hundred votes of whoever is above them.
08 09 09 mep
There is something about Boivin’s dedication and genuine nature that inspires me. I don’t usually get involved in watching politics, but after talking with her for a few moments at our front door her experience shone through, I am looking forward to this campaign.
08 09 04 david m.
whilst i'd love it if the ndp were to take this one, i'm not at all convinced. frankly, i think that the vote is going to split along 4 lines:
1. the quebec nationalist types, anti-ontario types, and some of the young people will vote bloc. this should account for near 20% of the vote.
2. the liberals should get a good portion of the public sector types, older voters, and woment, this should also be around 20% of the vote.
3. the conservatives should get loads of men, the small business types (there are lots in gatineau) and a majority of the suburban types. this should mean about 40% of the vote.
4. the dippers will get a good number of public sector types, some women, some young people, etc. about 20%.
hull-aylmer is a better bet for the ndp, but there too, the demographics and party id issues (as well as the relatively high level of small business ownership) should leave the ndp in a three way tie for third.
08 09 02 thecynical1
This is an interesting riding where you will see a real 4-way race between the incumbent Bloc, the traditional Liberal voters, a known Conservative councillor and businessman and a former Liberal turned NDP candidate.
Françoise Boivin is a likely winner here. Given her former Liberal background in a former traditional Liberal riding, she might split the federalist vote giving her a slight margin's advantage, likely in the low 30%'s.
Other candidates might score close too. Definitely keep an eye on this riding.
08 08 31 VincentL.
Likely gain for NDP in this federalist Outaouais riding. With the current unpopularity of Stephane Dion and the general Liberal meltdown in Quebec, it seems like the NDP is gradually eroding the Liberal vote in many of its Quebec strongholds (Outremont, Westmount, Hull-Aylmer etc). Gatineau is no exception.
The trend in this riding is particularly compelling considering the fact that Francoise Boivin is a former liberal MP...
08 08 31 Frédéric
La circonscription de Gatineau sera ardemment disputée lors de la prochaine campagne par les 4 partis acutellement représentés à la Chambre des communes. Toutefois, je donne l'avantage au NPD dans la circonscription à cause de le popularité personnelle de Françoise Boivin et le relatif bon score que le NPD a obtenu en 2006 avec une candidate beaucoup moins connue.
08 08 30 Tomas Andel
Boivin has the experience and support in the riding, she will likely take this one for the NDP. Expect Gatineau to be the next Outremont.
08 07 04 David Young
With Francoise Boivin's official nomination as NDP candidate in GATINEAU, and the polls showing increased NDP support in Quebec, this makes this riding (along with JEANNE LE BER and HULL-AYLMER) as one of the most-likely NDP pick-ups.
08 02 20 A.S.
Hard to tell about Françoise Boivin--as good a Liberal MP as she might have been, she was still in office less than two years on Marc Assad's coattails, with hardly sufficient opportunity for profile, so I don't know how much of a ‘Françoise Who?’ factor might obtrude. True, she'd be a genuine NDP ‘score’; but I'm also fearing an anticlimax akin to Alex Cullen's provincial fate in Ottawa West-Nepean in '99. (The paradox is: the fact of her candidacy could wind up helping Pierre Ducasse in Hull-Aylmer instead!) In fact, why just focus on the NDP--bearing in mind Lawrence Cannon's proximity, Tory strength across the Ottawa, and the strong PC second place in Gatineau under Jean Charest in '97, this'd have all the makings, still, now, of a sexy CPC target, too...
08 02 20 binriso
Well if that is true about Françoise Boivin, Gatineau is probably the only seat where all four parties have a legitimate chance to win (Maybe Hull-Aylmer too). Probably gives the advantage to the BQ because of widespread federalist vote splitting and I wouldnt be surprised if the winning candidate here gets less than 30% of the vote. But then again, there might be a coalescence of the federalist vote around someone, but as for now its very up in the air here. To be honest, the NDP probably have the advantage in terms of federalist parties if the election is called soon.
08 02 18 DL
Apparently Francoise Boivin the former Liberal MP for Gatineau who lost narrowly to the BQ in 2006 is about to announce that she will try to regain her seat - running for the NDP!! Expect the federalist vote to coalesce behind her and for the Liberals to wind up in single digits.
08 02 17 R.D.
Former Liberal MP Françoise Boivin has reportedly joined the NDP and is considering another run for office under that banner.
08 01 08 R.O.
Do the liberals even have a candidate here yet and if not how are liberals so sure they will win ? and previous results from 04 and 06 make me wonder. well it has been historically liberal it has not been solid recently , only held off the bloc by around 1000 votes in 04 and lost by over 4000 last election and the same candidate ran for bloc each time and he is now mp.. But this area isn’t a bloc stronghold either so I’m expecting a close 3 way race here but its not a guaranteed liberal pick up at current time , so at best too close to call .
07 12 11 binriso
Conservatives better have a damn good candidate to win here. Well they have a businessman and a local councillor so i guess theyll do better than last time. I still just dont see it. Gatineau was even won by the Liberals in 1988, when they won 12 seats in Quebec. Its been always solid for them and
07 12 08 Mark
With the Bloc vote beginning to collapse, it'll be a toss up between the Conservatives and the Liberals in this largely federalist riding. I would not be surprised to see the Conservatives come out on top with some votes from normal BQ voters strategically voting to prevent a liberal from being elected.
07 06 19 binriso
One of a number of seats the Liberals lost thats going to come back to them from the BQ. Probably not a big win but a few % above the BQ while the CPC will come a closer 3rd. Of course the fact it borders Ontario will help the federalists too.
07 04 08 Brian Appel
The only reason this riding went Bloc in '06 is due to a collapse in the Liberal vote. Now it's the Bloc that's collapsing, so I predict this race will be between the Conservatives and the Liberals with the Liberals coming out on top.
07 04 03 JC
This is coming back to the liberals who only lost this due to sponsorship, let's not forget this is just across the pond from ottawa.

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