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11:03 AM 28/03/2007

Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

New Democratic
Darwish, Amy
Guay-Pepper, Béatrice
Bloc Québécois
Isaya, Frédéric
Kaluzny, Antoine
Le Seigle, Yves
Vitelli, Kristina
Zarac, Lise

Rt. Hon. Paul Martin

2006 Résultats:
Paul Martin **
May Chiu
Georges-Alexandre Bastien
Russ Johnson
Serge Bellemare
Jean-Philippe Lebleu
Jean-Paul Bédard

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 10 02 Frank Hanley
Liberal candidate Lise Zarac is not known in the Émard part of the riding like Paul Martin was. And in the part where she is known, in LaSalle as a borough councillor, she voted in favour of a borough budget in 2006 that infuriated many property owners to the point where people were throwing chairs. And she is being supported by a predecessor who has been invisible since he was re-elected in early '06. If she wins this one, it will be out of sentiment for the Liberal Party, and nothing else.
08 09 30 Tikki Barber
Don't be too quick to call this for the liberals. Martin was invisible in the last parliament and that will be on the minds of voters here. there is also that trend of PM's seats changing party hands after they leave office. that being said, there is no alternative here that stands out. the bloc is probably at their ceiling, its on the island of montreal so the cpc is probably out and the ndp isn't targeting this one to much. probably liberal win but the cpc may surprise.
08 09 27 binriso
You do realize that in that election the PCs polled something like 55% in Quebec(I doubt anyone will poll over 35% in this election and the only party that has a chance is the BQ). The Liberals should win pretty easily by at least 6000 votes. The BQ candidate is also not as strong as last time.
08 09 19 Frank Hanley
The only reason this riding went Liberal (and by a whisker, too) back in 1988 was because of Paul Martin. If the Liberals hold on to this riding in 2008, it will show that the Liberal brand is alive and well. But without Paul Martin in the running, that vote could go back to the Tories or even bleed to the Bloc. One has to remember that Paul Martin was popular enough among soft-nationalist voters because he supported the Meech Lake Accord and also because he wasn't Jean Chretien. I'll go out on a limb here and say that it's TCTC (too close to call).
08 09 13 Let's go expos
If the NDP had its act together in this riding with a big-time candidate, they could have made a big splash -either winning, or splitting the federalist vote to allow a bloquiste in.
But the yawner of Montreal will be this race of nobodys. Liberals will take it out of habit.
08 09 08 W Knapp
curiosity demands this - who will be the shoo-in Liberal candidate in this riding ?
I think that no one else other than a Liberal has a chance here, no matter who gets the nomination...
08 02 15 A.S.
Funnily enough, even without PMPM and with Dion in the doldrums, I suspect this makes for a *more* confident Liberal prediction than last time--maybe the clincher is that even if PMPM lost ground in '06, so did the Bloc (even though wouldbe-upsetter May Chiu became, through her campaign pregnancy and opponent's profile, a bit of a sentimental media fixation). Thus, BQ's plateau has been proven to be around 30%; NDP'll only get in if the Mulcair effect goes like gangbusters (i.e. at least 10 or so Montreal seats); CPC will only get in if Harper manages to magically reassemble a Mulroney-coalition mandate; etc. At worst, Liberal-by-default-and-by-elimination.
07 10 27 binriso
Hmm well i thought that Marc Garneau was going to run here but i guess not. I dont know if any of the candidates have been nominated yet, except i think the CPC is the same one as last time. Well I have to say Liberal hold and probably by a fair margin, but depending on the candidate it could be closer than expected. Id be slightly worried if I were the Liberals, even in Montreal and these supposed safe seats.
07 04 09 Brian Appel
The last Prime Minister or former Prime Minister to step down and have his seat remain with his party in the following election was John Turner. Think about it. Chretien's riding went Bloc in 2004, Campbell lost her seat to a Liberal in 1993 who got re-elected there in 1997, and Mulroney's seat went Bloc in 1993. Will Martin break the tradition? It's neighbouring two Liberal ridings and three Bloc ridings, but two of those Bloc ridings are likely to go Liberal next time. I think the Liberals will hold on here. LaSalle-Emard is quite francophone, but not very nationalist. If the Bloc's numbers were higher, I'd say it's TCTC, but for right now, it'll be a Liberal hold.
07 03 27 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
This is very much Liberal territory, as evident to Paul Martin's win here by a safe 8000 vote margin (okay, that's bad for this riding but it is still a safe margin). With the stars aligning for Dion in the Montreal area, this will be an easy keep.
07 03 24 M. Lunn
Even though Paul Martin is not seeking re-election here, this is a pretty safe Liberal riding and considering how disliked he became in Quebec by 2006, I suspect the Liberals will do just as well as he did last time whoever they run.

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