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11:03 AM 28/03/2007

Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

New Democratic
Deslauriers, Peter
Gal, Jessica
Hoffman, Rachel
Jennings, Marlene
Pontillo, Carmine
Bloc Québécois
Taillefer, Eric

L'hon. Marlene Jennings

2006 Résultats:
Marlene Jennings **
Alexandre Lambert
Allen F. Mackenzie
Peter Deslauriers
Pierre-Albert Sévigny
Earl Wertheimer
Rachel Hoffman

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 09 20 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
Segacs where do you come up with this? Ms Jenning is neither personally popular nor has local root. I have lived here for 28 years, and I remember her being parachuted in back in 97 because they wanted more female candidates. I know some people didn't care for that move (my father being one of those people). As for her being popular, ask people in the riding about her and you'd get a response something like this, ‘Marlene Jenkins? Who's that?...Oh Jennings!...Umm...Isn't she like our MP or soemthing? Would I vote for her?...Umm...She's Liberal right?...Yeah, she's Liberal I guess so.’ People here really don't care WHO the candidate is so long as he/she is Liberal. Personally, I'm not a big fan of her's for reasons that are totally irrelevant to this posting. However, to give credit where credit is due, I have watched her over the decade she's been in office and she's worked extremely hard, has grown into the position very nicely and provided she stays around, she'll make an excellent cabinet minister in a future Liberal government. That doesn't mean the people in the riding see this (how many actually read the MP literature mailed to their houses or watch CPAC?). They will elect a Liberal candidate and get a very good MP by default in Ms Jennings.
08 09 16 segacs
As much as the Liberals have become unpopular in Quebec, this seat is solid for them. Marlene Jennings is a very popular and high-profile MP with local roots. Her winning percentage may slip a bit, but she's pretty much a shoo-in.
08 04 28 Neal Ford
Normally I would consider this seat one of the ones the Grits could count on come hell or high water, but if we have a spring election, and the NDP come up with a strong , well known viable candidate, it becomes something of a contest, though, I would still give the Liberals the edge.
I, grew up in Dorval, went to High school in Lachine, and in '88 I ran here as a Libertarian when it was part of Lachine-Lac-St Louis, and since that time, both Dorval & Lachine have become more Francophone, which doesn't bode well for the Liberals in times like these. East of 32nd is still very blue collar, lending itself to Bloc/NDP tendencies, while western Dorval may be tempted to flirt with the Tories.
I am less familiar with NDG on the ground, but I suspect that Liberal support will remain strong. It's an uphill battle for any challenger.
So, I reluctantly leave this in Liberal hands, albeit by a more humble margin.
08 03 08 A.S.
A parenthetical and perhaps sentimental tidbit about Lachine's potential NDP compatibility: in Mulroney days, the riding it was part of was represented by none other than Jack's dad Bob Layton.
08 02 17 A.S.
As a matter of fact, Lachine is exceptional within the West Island; it's what gave the Bloc its seemingly outsize numbers and, really, operates (or ought to operate, if it were part of a larger critical political mass) more like a slab of East Island that landed Westward. In fact, Lachine could hypothetically *boost* NDP hopes, maybe not on a bohemian-bourgeois-intelligentsia basis, but on the basis (somewhat affirmed by Mulcair) of blue-collar/left-leaning PQ/BQ types potentially defaulting onto a viable Dipper option, esp. if it's deemed more locally ‘electable’ than PQ/BQ--less of a Layton-Chow thing than a Comartin-Masse thing, IOW. All in all, though, NDP-in-NDG would be far more likely if it were an open seat, and if a representative like Marlene Jennings didn't render the option a little redundant. And *especially* if one were to seance Nick Auf der Maur back to life as their standard-bearer. (Sure, he ran for the PCs here in 1984; but hey, so would've Mulcair in his present frame of mind.)
07 11 27 GFW
First of all, while ‘Julius’ Grey has talked of running in NDG, and he lives in Westmount, you may be looking at the wrong riding here. Half of NDG, the half more likely to vote NDP in the event of Liberal antipathy, is in Westmount--Ville-Marie. This is the riding Grey is more likely to run in. NDG--Lachine consists mostly former 'burbs Lachine, Ville St-Pierre, and a good chunk of Dorval. Doc & Prof were right: It is a suburban riding. Grey's attitude won't fly that far out. And the only people saying he'll run in NDG--Lachine are those in the media. The NDP seems to have already chosen their candidate there, and his name is Peter Deslauriers, same as in 2006.
07 09 29 Mark
The NDP is drawing lots more attention in Quebec media ever since Mulcair's win in Outremont. And with a strong candidate in NDG, this could be the next big breakthrough for the NDP... and it just so happens that, according to La Presse, Julian Grey is strongly considering seeking the NDP nomination in this riding. If he succeeds, this race will be very interesting to watch.... but without star candidate in this riding, Marlene Jennings is a shoe-in.
07 09 27 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Not so fast! This riding is more Lachine than NDG, giving it a greater West Island flavour to it than Montreal urban central. This is a strongly federalist riding, so the stronger than normal BQ vote was just a protest vote of the sponsorship scandal. NDG does have some of those intelligentsia and bohemian types you mentioned, but they are not that big of a demographic when compared with the Italians and other ethnic communities that still vote Liberal by default. A strong NDP candidate (under the assumption that Muclairès victory is not a fluke and is actually a start of something new for the NDP in Quebec) could see a closer race, but it would be a race akin to Davenport. We suspect there are better NDP targets than in Montreal than this one (Westmount-Ville Marie being one).
07 09 24 King of Kensington
This has gone Liberal by default, but with Mulcair's byelection in Outremont this will be a top-tier target for the NDP in Montreal. NDG is the type of area that would be natural NDP territory in other cities. And the decline in the BQ in Montreal could also benefit the NDP. A strong NDP candidate who could take both Liberal and BQ votes could make things very interesting.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
Marlene Jennings should easily take this. She did get under 50% so this isn't a strong Liberal riding as some say, but the other parties pretty much split the vote evenly as the Conservatives are too right wing for this riding, the NDP has no base in Quebec, the Green Party is still a fringe party, and this riding is too federalist for the BQ, so that pretty much means Marlene Jennings will win regardless of what the Liberals get here.
07 03 27 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Bear's old stomping ground, and though he has a personal beef with Marlene, she has worked long and hard to get where she is. If the Liberals form a government watch it become ‘Minister Jennings’
07 03 19 Brian Appel
Marlene Jennings is a popular MP in the riding, and has done a lot for it. She is also becoming quite a mouthpiece in Parliament. Easy Liberal hold.

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