Profil de circonscription
| ||New Democratic|
| ||Bloc Québécois|
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| ||08 10 11
|Les Conservateurs ont des vrais problèmes dans la province du Québec à ce moment. Comme Stépahne a remarqué l'advance de Label était 12 points à la fin de septembre et maintenant c'est le Bloc qui mène par 2 points. La tendance de cette conscription et partout au Québec suggère que cette conscription va retourner au Bloc mardi.|
| ||08 10 10
|Sondage Segma mené du 4 au 8 octobre (marge d'erreur: 4,4%):|
Denis Lebel serait à égalité statistique avec la candidate bloquiste. Je continue cependant de croire que le député sortant a l'avantage et qu'il gardera son siège par une faible majorité, probablement le seul que les conservateurs auront au SagueLac.
| ||08 09 29
|Selon le sondage Segma réalisé pour le groupe Gesca, Denis Lebel serait largement en avance ici avec 48%. |
Le PCC conservera ce siège. Probablement davantage un appui pour l'homme, un ancien maire populaire, que pour le parti et ses politiques.
| ||08 09 29
|Pas de crainte, semble-t-il, pour l'ancien maire de Roberval. Sondage LeQuotidien - Groupe Gesca, du 23 au 27 septembre, marge d'erreur de 4,9%, 19 fois sur 20. Aurait-on un futur ministre dans le cabinet Harper?|
Denis Lebel, PCC 48,1%
Claude Pilote, BQ 38,3%
Bernard Garneau, PLC 8,1%
Jocelyn Tremblay, VERT 2,9%
Catherine Forbes, NPD 2,6%
| ||08 03 12
|As Tories had their highest losing numbers in Quebec here, it was a paint-by-numbers finishing of business on Denis Lebel's part--though had it been a general rather than by-election, I'm not sure whether it would have come so easily, perhaps even with a setback on CPC's part (at least, relative to other more ADQ-amenable seats out there). Well, ‘would have’. But now with Lebel in place, what's the use of a setback?|
| ||07 09 18
|Well like many of you no doubt, I'm pretty shocked how easy of a victory this was for the CPC. I expected them to win, but only by about 7-10% not 33. Weirdly, the Liberals went up 2% in the byelection, I figured they would get lower than 06 because of strategic voting for the CPC to defeat the BQ. I think we can safely say this will be a hold for the CPC in the next election, probably by a similar margin perhaps slightly reduced but over 50% for sure.|
| ||07 09 16
|I am predicting that this riding will be a conservative win now that Mr.Gouther is down. This riding was a old Social Credit seat for years and the people here are looking for a change and the Conservative Party has recognized the Quebec Nation which was a big play here. I feel that the Conservative has the old Social Credit vote in the West and in this riding and other's in Quebec that was old Socred grounds, we will see a change to the Conservative Party.|
| ||07 09 15
|I really think the conservatives have this one. One has to take into consideration the margin in which they lost the last election and the popularity of the current candidate. As for the issue of the PQ winning all 5 Saguenay--Lac-St-Jean ridings in the recent provincial election, one must remember that there was at one point talk of the Quebec Liberals winning all five seats. So why did the PQ end up winning all 5 of them? I think it has a lot to do with would be Liberal votes choosing the ADQ after its surge in popularity the couple weeks before the election. |
| ||07 09 15
|My ‘mathematics’ for this riding: Provincially ADQ territory + recent disenchantment with the PQ/Bloc + CPC momentum in this riding, and leading the polls = Conservative win by a 5-10% margin.|
| ||07 09 15
||Nick J Boragina|
|To clarify, by election prediction of a tory victory, stands for the by-election as well. Polls agree with me.|
| ||07 09 14
|Sondage Unimarketing - La Presse du 14 septembre: PCC 43%, BQ 37%, PLC 12%, NPD 4%, Verts 4%. Ce sera très serré. Je crois que l'avantage ira au maire de Roberval, le candidat conservateur, par peu. Cinq mandats dans l'opposition, ça use... les citoyens voudront aussi récolter ce que leurs voisins récoltent avec Blackburn.|
| ||07 09 03
|I was leaning bloc for this one, purely because of the results from the last election, however a new poll displayed in the toronto star has the conservatives and bloc in a two way race both here and in St.haicine, with the two essentially neck and neck. I'm gonna say CPC by a hair here.|
| ||07 08 27
|For the conservative to win here, they will need a very quiet period in Afghanistan. Unfortunately for the Conservatives, the Talibans are in a very busy period. After the opium crop has been harvested and before the winter, they will be very active. And as only the most motivated people will go vote on a by-election, those against the war in Afghanistan are more likely to go vote. And they will vote for the Bloc.|
| ||07 08 13
|- Situé dans l'une des région les plus souverainistes au Québec...|
- Un seul parti souverainiste contre 4 partis fédéralistes (Bloc Québécois versus PLC, PC, NPD et PV)...
- Le Parti Conservateur qui a perdu plus de 5 points dans la moyenne des sondages depuis l'élection de janvier 2006...
- Il y a déjà un ministre dans la région et le remaniement va déjà avoir eu lieu alors c'est un argument de moins pour cette élection...
- Une victoire parfaite (5 sur 5) du Parti Québécois dans la région lors des dernières provinciales alors que ce parti faisait son pire score depuis les années ‘70’...
Ceux qui sont trop convaincu de la victoire du conservateur sont soit membre de son organisation soit aveuglément partisans!
Rien ne laisse croire à l'heure actuelle que le Bloc Québécois pourrait être défait lors de la partielle!
| ||07 08 03
|1. In 2006 they were only 3,000 votes back of one of the highest-profile BQ caucus members, making it the Conservatives 11th best showing in Quebec, after winning 10 seats.|
2. High-profile Conservative candidate in an experienced local politician.
3. Quebec by-elections have a far greater tendency to go with the government than anywhere else in Canada.
The Tories may have a shot in Saskatchewan, a shot in Saint-Hyacinthe Bagot, and possibly a long, long shot in Vancouver Quadra (carpetbagger replaces three-term incumbent with a family name of Vancouver lore)...but nowhere do they have a better chance than in this riding.
Gauthier has seen the writing on the wall. Conservative pick-up.
| ||07 07 30
|A lot will depend on when the by-election is called. If called in the Early fall, then the Bloc Quebecois will hold this as the Tories usually drop in Quebec in the summer when the Afghanistan issue is front page news, while do better in the winter when the issue is not as prominent. Still if the Tories gain any seats in Quebec, this is the one, so if they cannot win this (and I don't suspect they will) they can forget about a big breakthrough in Quebec.|
| ||07 07 28
|Roberval Mayor Denis Lebel will taking up the Tory banner against C?line Houde of the Bloc, likely on September 17. C?line Houde does not seem not have any government or public policy background beyond involvement in her nurses' union. With the Bloc polling close to historic lows and Harper's recent comments that imply a stand-down from Afghanistan within 2 years, Lebel has the inside track here.|
| ||07 06 07
|Well it seems that this is no longer a safe bet for the BQ. Longtime Social Credit riding, which probably bodes well for the Conservatives also. Gauthier is gone and he wasnt really putting up the big landslides that occured in other parts of the North. With the CPC putting up a star candidate to run against a no doubt much lower profile BQ candidate than Gauthier this is one riding that will move away from the seperatists and Canada will all be happy:). Expect a 2000+ vote win.|
| ||07 04 14
||Nick J Boragina|
|This was the closest riding in the province that the Tories did NOT win last time. Most people expected it to stay that way as Gauthier would be hard to knock off. now that he's announced he's nor running, this riding stands to swing in the tories favour. A strong candidate for them, coupled with bad poll numbers for the bloc, means an almost certain victory. I'd not be surprised if they took this riding while losing others in the province.|
| ||07 04 10
|Même sans M. Gauthier, c'est un comté bloc. Le P.Q. a reconquis la région le 26 mars. Ils ont battu des candidats vedettes tant libéraux qu'adéquistes. Avec un chef bien plus populaire qu'André Boisclair, ce comté restera Bloc.|
| ||07 04 08
|It was announced today that the mayor of Roberval will be running for the Conservatives in this riding. This came amid news that the CPC was in a statistical tie with the Bloc, and was ahead in francophone Quebec.|
This is clearly going to be a CPC pickup.
| ||07 03 31
|Michel Gauthier isn't even running this time, which could make this one interesting. The CPC didn't do too badly in the Saguenay last time, and without this prominent incumbent, Jean-Pierre Blackburn might just find himself with a ‘bleu’ neighbor.|
| ||07 03 29
|Michel Gauthier is not running again and this was the Tories best showing amongst the 65 Quebec ridings they failed to win, so if they do make gains in Quebec, this will probably be one of the first to fall. That being said even with the current polls, the Bloc Quebecois would probably still hold this riding by a razor thin margin.|
| ||07 03 28
|This was the best 2nd place showing for the Conservatives last time, and it was against Michel Gauthier, the high profile former Bloc leader. Now that he's just announced his retirement, the Conservatives have to be targeting this heavily. I'd say it's too close to call this far from the election, but if the Conservatives' Quebec strategy has worked at all, this riding will go their way.|
| ||07 03 28
||Dr Bear & Prof Ape|
|We know this should be a hard core BQ riding but Gauthier announced today that he is not running again. Add the strong second place the CPC scored in 2006 and a recently unelected former Liberal MNA Karl Blackburn (any relation to the guy in Jonquiere?) who may suddenly find interest in federal conservative politics....shouldn't this be TCTC until we know the players and situation a litle better?|
| ||07 03 28
|Better mark this one as too close to call. Michel Gauthier has announced that he will not seek re-election. gauthier, a former BQ leader, narrowly hung onto this riding in the last federal election, with a Tory nipping at his heels.|
he sees the writing on the wall.
| ||07 03 26
|The Conservatives have been edging up on Michel Gauthier, and the provincial Liberals have done well here too. Gauthier is no slam dunk anymore. This one is a contest.|