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11:46 AM 10/10/2008

Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

New Democratic
Sansoucy, Brigitte
Tétreault, Jacques
Bloc Québécois
Thi Lac, Ève-Mary Thaï
Tremblay, Denise
Vincelette, René

Eve-Mary Thai Thi Lac

2006 Résultats:
Yvan Loubier **
Huguette Guilhaumon
Stéphane Deschênes
Joëlle Chevrier
Jacques Tétreault

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 10 10 MH
This one is no longer TCTC (if it ever was) and can safely be assigned to the Bloc. The Conservatives are bombing in Quebec: read Chantal Hébert in the Toronto Star today (Oct. 10), and the Bloc and NDP are the chief beneficiaries. The NDP will do well to keep the seat they have, but the Bloc will take seats, chiefly at the expense of the CPC. The only question now is how many of the seats the CPC took in 2006 will return to the Bloc fold. My guess is that the Conservatives will hold no more than five Quebec seats at most when the smoke clears next Tuesday. I won't try to guess which ones. But given that the Bloc had a 15,000-vote win in S-H-B two years ago, it is safe as houses here, as, indeed, the Bloc is in most Quebec seats. I'm far from happy about this, but we've got to face the facts.
08 10 10 Stéphane Gaudet
Changement d'opinion: demeurera bloquiste. Pas de vague conservatrice à signaler, et un sondage local place la députée sortante Thi Lac en tête.
Victoire bloquiste.
08 10 09 binriso
I highly see why this is one of the last ridings to be TCTC. The CPC came close but still lost in the byelection and dumped their candidate(who I thought had good profile) and the BQ are probably going to win this by a comfortable margin now.
08 10 08 J.F. Breton
Sondage (400 entrevues téléphoniques) effectué du 2 au 5 octobre 2008. La marge d'erreur est de 5%, 19 fois sur 20. La candidate bloquiste de Saint-Hyacinthe l'emporterait haut la main avec 45% des intentions de vote. René Vincelette du Parti Conservateur suit loin derrière avec 17%.
08 09 25 J.P.
Victoire du Bloc assurée maintenant.
Avec le Bloc à 39% et les Conservateurs à 23%, peu de chance pour le PCC ici.
De plus, La Presse vient de publier un article sur 4 candidats au passé douteux et le pire cas (fraude et abus de pouvoir à plusieurs reprises)était celui de l'organisateur du candidat conservateur dans St-Hyacinthe.
Case close here. Bloc victory.
Bloc @ 39% and CPC @ 23% now gives only few chances for the CPC here.
Also, La Presse just printed that the campaign organisator for the CPC in St-Hyacinhte have a really bad past (fraud and power abuse has a MP).
Seems obvious the Bloc will win.
08 09 15 Stéphane Gaudet
Vu la victoire relativement courte du Bloc à la partielle, je m'attends à ce que le comté soit gagné par les conservateurs vu les sondages actuels qui montrent une chute du Bloc et une croissance du PCC. C'est un comté en grande partie rural.
St-Hyacinthe, c'est probablement le plus près de Montréal que les conservateurs s'approcheront (hormis une possible victoire de Fortier dans Vaudreuil-Soulanges). Je doute que le PCC fasse élire des députés dans la proche banlieue de Montréal et réitère l'exploit adéquiste. Ne présumons pas trop vite une équation comtés ADQ = comtés PCC.
08 09 13 J.P.
Victoire du Bloc ici.
Si St-Hyacinthe voulait d'un député Conservateur, ils l'auraient élu en 2007 lors des partielles.
Il y a une forte tradition bleue à St-Hyacinthe, mais la tradition nationaliste est plus forte.
Les résultats serré de la partielle de 2007 avantageront aussi le Bloc. En effet, plusieurs votes allés aux NPD (qui a fini 3e lors de la partielle) iront au Bloc pour contrer les Conservateurs.
Ce ne sera une marge très forte, mais cette circonscription demeurera au Bloc.
Bloc victory here.
If St-Hyacinthe wanted a Conservative, they wuold elect him in 2007.
There is a strong Blue tradition in St-Hyacinthe, mais the Nationalist tradition is stronger.
The 2007 elections were tight between the Bloc and the PCC. This should help the Bloc getting reelected. Indeed, Liberal and NDP are not in the race and some of their votes will go to the Bloc to ensure the PCC don't pass.
Won't be a blow out victory, but the Bloc will keep St-Hyacinthe this time.
08 09 12 Paul Tremblay
Voters had a chance to vote for a government MP in last year's by-election and they declined to do so. This was an important theme in the by-election and while it is still relevant to some extent now it is not as important in a general election.
Incumbents tend to have a strong ballot box bonus in this riding and while the riding was Conservative in the 1960s and 1970s frankly this was more due to the local popularity of the Conservative candidates at the time, who received support that would normally have gone for Social Credit.
I expect a moderately easy Bloc win here.
08 03 10 A.S.
Relative to the Tories, the Claude Wagner legacy means less here than the *ahem* Duplessiste legacy means in Chaudiere-Appalaches. So, the StHyB byelection result was, well, just that--a byelection result; and, if I may say with regret, who knows how much race played (and still might play) a part in said result. Is *this* a harbinger, or a blip? Because it was so close in the byelection, I'm reluctant to offer anything; but it'll be unusual if this seat goes Tory while none of its neighbours follow suit...
07 10 08 binriso
Another possible good omen for the CPC is that St Hyacinthe has gone PC several times in the last 50 years. This was Claude Wagner's seat in the 70s and went PC from 1957-1978 and again in 1984-1993 in the Mulroney years. Very few (and I mean VERY VERY FEW) Quebec seats have this kind of conservative/PC history(ie won in several different elections in good and bad times like even surviving 1968 Trudeaumania and 1972 and 1974 where the PC seat count in Quebec was 4 or below each time) And of course pretty much every non-Montreal seat went PC in the 80s. Something to think about maybe...
07 09 18 binriso
A close call....Only a 4.6% win for the BQ here. They are not safe here in the coming general election. With the numbers last night, the CPC could double their Quebec seats next election(or maybe even a bit more).
07 09 18 Nick J Boragina
I was hesitant to put in any prediction before seeing how well the Tories would do in the by-election. The argument that people from rural Quebec are socially conservative is *partly* true. While they might be pro-SSM and maybe even pro-choice, what makes them Conservative is their priorities. Many in the NDP want lower taxes, but feel that a number of things have to come first, it’s their priorities that put them on the left. The priorities of many in rural Quebec, put them on the right wing of the spectrum. An example would be a voter who disagrees with Afghanistan, but votes Harper for other reasons. While all of this holds true, we also must remember what the Bloc represents. It’s not only a separatist party, but as a Quebec-only party, it represents Quebec, by definition, better then the other parties ever could. It can take a right or left wing stand on any particular issue so long as a large majority of people in Quebec agree with them. I’d also note that of the predictors so far, one predicted the CPC by a hair, and only Bettle Bailey predicted a wide margin. Not to say anything bad about him as I don’t know him, but I have seen him predicting CPC wins in some of the most un-winnable ridings. I’m halfway surprised he has not offered comment on Mount Royal. Either way, the by-election victory, with a margin that matched the poll, shows that CPC support here is just not strong enough to overcome the hump. While I wont say there is no way the CPC can win this election in this riding, right now with the circumstances we face, it wont happen. If, however, the CPC jumps to first in the polls in Quebec, this riding might turn a different shade of blue; Until then, it’s a BQ lock.

By-election Prediction

07 09 14 J.F. Breton
Sondage Unimarketing - La Presse du 14 septembre: BQ 49%, PCC 32%, NPD 7%, Verts 6%, PLC 5%. Victoire assez nette du Bloc.
07 09 03 C.Parsons
I was leaning bloc for this one, purely because of the results from the last election, however a new poll displayed in the toronto star has the conservatives and bloc in a two way race both here and in roberval, with the two essentially neck and neck. I'm gonna say CPC by a hair here.
07 08 27 P.P.
The Afghanistan mission is VERY unpopular in Quebec. I believe that this mission will save the seat for the Bloc.
07 08 22 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
Foodora hit the nail on the head when he/she commented on social conservatism in Quebec. Being originally from Quebec I know quite well that no other place in Canada better embodies Trudeau's comment, ?The state has no place in the bedroom of the nation?. If the Cheryl Gallant's of the CPC were running the show all the Quebec conservative members would be turfed very quickly. I also find it quite amusing to references of ?elites?. I think the CPC could be called elitist (as would be the Liberals), something that doesn't sit too well with the average Jean-Guy Labatt. Parties like the BQ and ADQ are (at least precieved to be) far less elitist. I recall a headline in the Montreal Gazette, ?Grandmother running in Laval area riding for BQ? as well as ?Grocery Bagger wins riding for ADQ?. So the down-homey feel of the BQ does help them. Having said that, I would be only mildly surprised if the CPC did win this riding. That is, in the byelection. Low turn out, strong push by smaller/fring parties may allow a CPC squeeker. I wouldn't bet on it but I am not saying it's outside of the realm of probablity. I would also like to comment on Foodora's comment about the ADQ results being media hype. No way buddy! We are talking about a party that never had official party status, held about 4 seats and the real battle for government was between the PQ and the PLQ. For the ADQ to sweep all the ?soft? ridings as well as many of the PQ's ?hard? ridings (north shore of Montreal for instance) is big news! The Liberals held onto government only because they held their core areas (Montreal, Ottawa Valley and the Eastern Townships). To put it in prespective, it would be like the NDP suddenly surging to 100+ seats in the next federal election, while the CPC only wins a handful more than them (and Liberals tumbling below 80 seats). That would be very big news indeed.
07 08 17 GFW
I don't know. I think that it's still quite a leap for the Tories to win this one, no matter who the Bloc is running, and especially when the gap between them is more than 10,000 votes. Rural Québécois may have a conservative streak to them, but they are not necessarily idealogical conservatives, and may be very anti-war. Still, it will be an interesting race.
07 08 12 Foodora
Our Conservative friend has developed a very odd interpretation of Quebec society. The claim that Quebecers from outside Montreal are very conservative (even more so than Albertans) is ridiculous and demonstrates a complete lack of knowledge about Quebec. Francophone Quebecers are generally recognized by sociologists, political scientists and economists as the most socially liberal (small ‘l’ liberal) people in North America. This is reflected in many ways: voting patterns, the highest % of people in common law relationships and children born out-of-wedlock in N. America, opposition to war, and in strong support for left-wing social policies such as same-sex marriage. The religious right is virtually absent as a political or social force in Quebec, a fact which has even been noted by ADQ leader Mario Dumont, who has stated that there is no room for right-wing social politics in Quebec. Obviously, Bettele Baily hasn’t spent much time in La Belle Province.
Incidentally, I think it’s wroth pointing out (since so many people keep referring to it) that the ADQ’s results in the provincial election have largely been overblown by the media. In fact, they were unable to win government against a very unpopular party, were only 2 percentage points above the PQ, and made no gains in Montreal. Hardly a sweep. Quebecers have voted for left-leaning parties for decades and now, because of one election, everyone is stating that they were conservative all long. Many realize that any success the ADQ did have was a protest vote and was in fact despite, not because of their policies.
Sorry for the long post, but it is important to put things in perspective here. As for the riding in question: Bloc win.
07 07 30 M. Lunn
This is a pretty safe Bloc Quebecois and the Tories would need a huge surge in Quebec before this would come into play, so the Bloc Quebecois should easily hold this. The only reason Yvan Loubier got clobbered by the ADQ provincially is he ran in a provincial riding located in Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere, which went solidly conservative last election. He did not run in this riding.
07 07 30 Bettle Bailey
This will be a conservative pickup. If you listen to the elites in the media the CPC is struggling in Quebec because of Afghanistan/Environment. But what these elites/pollsters/pundits don't realized that in Quebec especially outside of Montreal is that the average Joe in Quebec is very Conservative, and I would argue even more than Albertans. Traditional values, families, and the preservation of their French identity is extremely important to Quebeckers. Also these elites do really well in Ontario in influencing votes, but it won't sell outside of Montreal. A perfect example is with the ADQ where Quebecers took on the elites. I'm sure everybody remembers what happen on election night in Quebec, the ADQ were suppose to be slipping in the polls, but on election night the experts were off by 6-10%
Stay tune everybody there are going to be surprises on Sept 17th
07 07 12 binriso
Alot of these Quebec rural/smaller city seats will be determined on what Quebecois deem more important, the national question or the left/right ideologies of the BQ and the CPC. The ADQ seem to have struck a chord with their autonomist vision more power for Quebec within Canada, moreso IMO than their policies, while the PQ/BQ were seen as divisive with their want of a referendum, which alienated many voters from their party. Although i believe their policies are somewhat more in line with the Quebec electorate since they are pretty liberal (not Liberal:D). Really the Liberals have very little chance in any riding thats any great distance east of Montreal unless they get some amazing star candidates.
Not to mention Harper dumped off a crapload of money onto Quebec which will help him greatly. I really dont think the BQ should lose this but as for a by-election the CPC could win it since they are looking pretty good in the polls.
07 04 11 P.P.
Bien que ce comté ait voté ADQ le 26 mars. Bien qu'il ait aussi voté conservateur sous Mulroney, je crois que le comté demeurera bloquiste. Le Québec est dans une zone de comfort avec Mario Dumont mais je crois que les Québécois s'accommodent fort bien d'un gouvernement Harper minoritaire. Ils ne seront pas ceux qui lui donneront une majorité
07 04 07 Stéphane Gaudet
Cette circonscription ne devrait pas être trop vite donnée au Bloc. Les deux circonscriptions provinciales qui la composent (Johnson et St-Hyacinthe) sont passées aux mains de l'ADQ le 26 mars, défaisant ainsi des députés péquistes pourtant appréciés et bien enracinés, comme Claude Boucher. Et Johnson n'avait pas été autre chose que PQ depuis 1976 !
Si les conservateurs devaient marcher dans les pas de l'ADQ et faire des gains aux dépens des souverainistes, cette circonscription pourrait être l'une des premières à basculer, selon moi. Et Loubier n'est plus là, ce qui facilite encore davantage une défaite bloquiste dans le comté.
07 04 06 Smok Wawelski
This one should not be in the BQ column at this stage either. Adequistes won handily and may well back a Tory candidate.
Without Loubier (who was overrated, IMHO, and it seems, in the opinion of the voters in Chutes de la Chaudiere) this riding is certainly in play.
Should be, at least at this stage, TCTC.
the landscape has changed greatly. the old separatist/federalist paradigm seems to be breaking down, and the old coalitions that would rally people of all political stripes around one party or another based on the ‘Question nationale’ seems to be rather unfashionable these days.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
Right at the moment I think it is pretty safe to say even though Yvan Loubier is not running again, this should stay BQ. Although he lost badly provincially, the riding he ran in provincially is located in the federal riding of Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere, not this one. If there is a dramatic shift towards the Conservatives like we saw towards the ADQ then this will need to be moved to the too close to call, but for now it is a safe BQ riding.
07 03 28 Pete G.
The Conservatives definitely have a shot at taking this, both because the incumbent Bloc MP has retired, and because the ADQ did quite well provincially here, indicating some strong small-c conservative sentiment in the riding. We won't know till the campaign is well underway.
Ste Hyacinthe was an easy win for the Adequistes in the provincial election, and with Yvan Loubier out of the picture, this one should be TCTC, not called for the Bloc.
With the right candidate, this one could go Tory. Liberals are out of the picture.
07 03 26 Smok Wawelski
This one is going to be a contest. With Yvan Loubier out of the picture, the Tories are poised to take this riding out of the Bloc column with a strong candidate.

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