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2:37 PM 08/10/2008

Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

Bloc Québécois
Beaudin, Josée
Clune, Patrick
Joubert, Diane
New Democratic
Marois, Richard
Stanners, Roxane

Maka Kotto

2006 Résultats:
Maka Kotto **
Jean-Jacques Hermans
Patrick Clune
Ronaldo Garcia
Sonia Ziadé
Normand Fournier

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 10 14
Selon moi, le Bloc ayant gagné par 10 000 voix à la dernière élection avec Maka Kotto, il faudrait une catastrophe pour faire tomber Josée Beaudin de son piédestal.
Seule surprise possible : les Conservateurs pourraient très bien, à mon avis, déloger les Libéraux de leur seconde position, Patrick Clune ayant fait une campagne très visible. Mais cette «lutte secondaire» ne se joue qu'à Saint-Lambert même, très fédéraliste. La couronne longueuilloise du comté, qui grandit à chaque réforme de la carte électorale, restera bloquiste sans aucun doute.
08 10 07 Charles
Can't believe this one has not been called yet. The Bloc is the incumbent. With redistricting, this is a Bloc riding. The only chance the Tory had was winning the byelection under a low voter turnout scenario. But the byelection was folded into the general. Strategic voting can't help defeat the Bloc. I'm voting Green again. It's a Bloc win.
08 10 05 R.O.
Updating my prediction and surprised this one has not been called for the bloc yet as with polls the way they are I unfortunately do not see how any of the federalist parties could catch the bloc here and close such a big gap. The conservatives seem to have more strength in the areas near quebec city over this area. I have to be realistic but the liberals are far too low in the polls to possibly take this seat back. And very unlikely the ndp win this one either. Leaving the bloc as most likely winner here especially considering the seat already is a bloc riding.
08 09 26 paulalexdij
I have lived in this riding for 22 years. Well actually only 12 because the riding was only created in 1996 and was before that part of the La Prairie riding which included Brossard and not any part of Longueuil. In 1996 a large chunk of Longueuil (and in 2003 an even bigger chunk) were tacked on to Saint Lambert - Greenfield Park - Lemoyne even though the Longueuil - Saint Lambert border has historically had the same importance as Saint Laurent boulevard downtown (of which it is a natural extension). At the last election 53% of the votes cast in tne polls of this riding were cast in Vieux-Longueuil, 22% were cast in Greenfield Park (which is now an arrondissement of Longueuil), and only 25% were actually cast in Saint-Lambert. At the very least this riding should be renamed (perhaps as Saint-Lambert--Lemoyne) in order to better reflect the reality of its composition, and hopefully at the next realignment some parts of Saint-Hubert that are a more natural extension of Saint-Lambert, such as LaFleche, will be added in lieu of some of the huge parts of Longueuil.
Longueuil is of course historically strongly nationalist and remains so. The Liberal candidate is highly over-rated but Saint-Lambert is the closest suburb of Montreal (closer even than NDG) and retains many Montreal characteristics. Consequently the Libs will not do as badly here as in most off-island ridings. The CPC candidate here is not bad but has not managed to capture the voters' imagination as much as some of the CPC candidates in the more distant suburbs. The BQ candidate by contrast has proven to be an attractive choice. The NDP has also made significant advances in Longueuil but they are still in a battle for third place.
The BQ will get 17,000 votes, the CPC 13,000, the LPC 6,000, and the NDP 5,000. Not really as much of a contest as one might like.
08 09 15 Charles
Even if all non-Bloc voters supported one candidate, it appears that the Conservative would have the best chance this time, that would be enough to defeat the separatist. But that will not happen, because there are enough hard-core Liberal supporters in the riding that will not change their vote. And other voters will want to vote NDP and Green, as they should if that's the message that resonates with them. Redistricting a few years ago added a lot of Bloc voters to this riding. So Bloc it shall stay.
08 09 13 J.P.
J'ai habité 20 ans dans cette circonscription.
À la dernière élection, le Bloc a gagné par plus de 10 000 votes.
Je ne vois pas comment autant de personnes puissent changer leur vote 2 ans plus tard et changer de parti pour cette circonscription.
Les Libéraux sont surrévalué ici.
St-Lambert a déjà voté Libéral il y a moins de 10 ans, mais c'était avant le redécoupage de la circonscription en 2003 qui a ajouté plus de gens de Longueuil. Depuis, le Bloc a toujours largement gagné.
Cette circonscription ne compte plus que 14% d'Anglophones et on connait le côté souverainiste de Longueuil qui a élu entres autres René Lévesque et Pauline Marois.
Ce ne sera peut-être pas par 10000 voix, mais je crois que St-Lambert sera assez facilement gardé par le Bloc.
1- Bloc
2- Conservateurs
3- Libéraux
I lived 20 years in this division.
At the last election, the Bloc won by 10 000 votes.
I don't see how that many people change their vote whitin 2 years.
The Liberals are overrated here.
St-Lambert voted Liberal not a long time ago, but that was before 2003, when more of Longueuil was added to the division.
Since, the Bloc won easily. Saint-Lambert is now only 14% Anglophones and Longueuil is strongly Nationalist (Rene Levesque, Pauline Marois, etc.)
The Liberals will even finish 3rd in this election.
This will not be won by 10 000 votes, but I think it's a fairly easy keep for the Bloc.
1- Bloc
2- Conservatives
3- Liberals

By-election Prediction

08 09 05 DAS
Roxane Stanners is terrific! I was door-to-dooring with her several weeks ago and she was getting great response -- just a couple of bloc voters encountered in a heavily french speaking areas.
Much improved response over last time!
08 08 27 Paul Tremblay
I'd like to make it clear that my earlier prediction of a Bloc win is not influenced by the ethnicity of the Conservative candidate. I believe that in this riding it is a non-factor.
I suspect that much of the francophone Conservative support is mostly rural in nature and by definition this would not be very useful for the CPC in winning this riding.
This being said I would like to specify that my prediction was based on the idea that a by-election would actually be held. As we are now 99 % sure that we will have a general election instead I will change my call here and say that in a general election the riding will be a three-way race between the Bloc, the Conservatives and the Liberals. If one of the federalist parties is well ahead of the other one in national polls about one week before the election that party will become the one clear federalist alternative to the Bloc in Quebec and that party will have a very good chance of winning this seat. If both parties are tied the Bloc will win again here thanks to vote-splitting.
08 08 26 David P.
The city of St.Lambert is very affluent and is considered the 'Westmount of the South Shore'. It is definitely not a low-income town. If the St.Lambert riding did not include parts of the cities of Longueuil, Ville LeMoyne and Saint-Hubert (which are mostly low-income & Bloc-Q supporters), the riding would go to the Conservatives or even the Liberals.
08 08 24 R.O.
The bloc remain the clear favourites here although its not a total lock yet but with a good candidate and large margin of victory last election they will be hard to beat. Even though this seat was liberal before it does not appear there making a strong push here or realistically expect to win it back this by-election. Although Stephane Dion did visit the riding to proclaim that he did not want a general election which is the exact opposite of what he was saying a month ago when he said that he wanted one and Canadians were ready for one. Patrick Clune is a good candidate for the conservatives and ran here several times before unlike others which are new. There is a strong possibility he could come in second here but a win might not be in the cards yet as this is a riding where the bloc and liberals have done better historically.
08 08 23 Brian
I resent the generalization that people have of this riding. I used to live in Saint Lambert and it's a very nice area, not all that low-income. And it's not a Bloc fortress. In 1997, it was strongly Liberal. But that was then, and I guess this is now. I hate to admit it, but the Bloc will win here. The Liberals aren't strong enough in Quebec to win this seat, and this is not even in the same timezone as the Conservatives.
08 08 18 david m.
the bloc is going to hold this one.
for those of you who've never been to the south shore wasteland represented in our federal parliament as ‘st lambert’, here are the three things you need to know:
1. it's comprised of three ghastly, car-dominated, and relatively low income suburbs: longueuil, st lambert and greenfield park. the first is staunchly separatist, the second two, more federalist (but not necessarily liberal).
2. the candidates are unknown: the liberal is a montreal lawyer; the bloquiste is a community organizer; the conservative is a lawyer; the new democrat is an environmental activist. this election will be about the parties.
3. the conservatives are making a serious run at this one, committing serious resources. this will inevitably split the federalist vote.
pretty straight-forward stuff, the bloc wins on the unenthusiastic support of the longueuil voters.
08 08 17 T,V,
I think the Bloc will hold this one by default. The Tories haven't really moved up in Quebec since last election. Certainly not enough to make up for a third place finish last time. The Liberals will likely be done in by their candidate who doesn't seem ideally suited to the area..
08 08 14
It's interesting to see that Libs still believe that they are a national party. Though recent polls indicate that they are rising (1000 people across Canada) a simple walk through of Montreal off-island numbers clearly indicate that Dion will never get more than 10% of the francophone vote. Case and point the Repentigny and St-Hyacinthe by-elections where the Fed Libs finished 4th with less than 10% of the vote. The NDP finished 3rd ! I would even venture to say the Dion is more popular in Alberta than francophone Quebec.
Several prominent former liberals have publicly crossed over to support CPC candidate Clune to avoid splitting the federalist vote and permit another Bloc win. Liberals also seem to forget that a biggest chunk of the riding is in pro-PQ Longueuil... Not a liberal natural feeding ground to troll for votes.

The Libs should concentrate on Westmount-VM and hope the Bloc drop this riding. That would then soften the Bloc for the upcoming general election.
08 08 13 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
I expect this riding to look very much like St Hyacinthe-Bagot did last year. The BQ winning but with a small enough margin to cast doubt in everyone's minds. It remains to be seen whether or not Quebec flips to the CPC (a la Diefenbaker or Mulroney)as some have been suggesting or if issues such as the environment, Afghanistan, etc stifle CPC chances. As well, this riding is too much of a Montreal riding to compare it to the ADQ bastions that the CPC won last election. The liberals are just not resonating with francophones in Quebec to garnish a win. I expect this to be interesting, but a BQ vicotory in the end.
08 08 13 binriso
I dont think anyones close enough here to beat the Bloc. The Liberals will probably come 2nd a hair ahead of the CPC and the NDP further back. Lets not forget the ADQ are polling in the low 10s now in Quebec and thats a bad omen for the CPC. Probably something like
BQ 33
LIB 24
CPC 22
NDP 15
Id be more surprised with a CPC victory than a Liberal one in this riding.
08 08 12 Pierre
The NPD is performing an extraordinary campaign in this ridding. Anyway they don't have any chance here.
The Dippers are putting all the efforts and resources in Westmount-Ville-Marie with Anne Lagace Dowson. If the NPD wins in Westmount, the Liberals are not going to be the official opposition much longer.
My prediction: BQ- 39% Liberal- 25% NPD- 20% Conservatives- 16%
08 08 11 MadCaper
This race is not a sure win for the Bloc as the Liberals seem to have picked up some support in the last few weeks to close the gap between the two front runners. This support appears to be coming from both the Bloc and the P.C. Parties. The New Democrats have also picked up a chunk of support from across the board and this will put them in a strong position to take third place from the Tories, whose candidate seems to be stuck in neutral. The Green Party will increase it's vote, but it will be probably be by less than a 1000 votes when the dust settles. This race will go down to the wire with the Liberals winning by 1000 to 1500 votes.
08 08 11 JKY
I was visiting in Montreal on the weekend and was very impressed by the showing the NDP are making here. They clearly have beefed up their organization on the ground, and to have such a strong appearance in a francophone riding is quite surprising. I don't think they have a chance of winning, but will certainly not be embarrassed. They are likely to pick up over 20% of the vote, enough to spoil the chances for someone. Only question is whose votes they will siphon off?
08 08 10 DL
This riding could be a real sleeper. At this stage, i have to think that the BQ is still favoured, but i have to take issue with the comment that a stronger NDP showing would help the BQ to hang on. On the contrary, I think that is the NDP does really well and takes - say - 20% of the vote, it could actually make a BQ LOSS possible. All available evidence indicates that the NDP rise in Quebec is largely coming at the expense of the BQ. Look at Outremont, the Liberals vote only dropped by 8% in the byelection compared to the 2006 election. The BQ vote dropped over 20%!! In all the province wide polls in Quebec, NDP support has doubled from 8% to 16% or so, while BQ support is down by a similar amount. While the Tories maybe picking up some BQ support in rural Quebec, in Montreal it seems that there is a straight tradeoff between the BQ and the NDP. On top of that I believe that NDP candidate Richard Marois is quite nationalistic and was once in the BQ himself. He seems like exactly the kind of NDP candidate that the BQ needs to worry about. In contrast the Liberals are running an anglophone from Alberta in a heavily francophone and very nationalist riding.
08 08 09 JEB
I would like to remind MC that the CPC got 20% at the last election and that they are going everywhere but down in this byelection! I don't know how you come up with such an idea that the NDP won't affect the BQ, but it's wrong. Very naturally, sorry ex-Duceppe fans will land in the NDP camp, make no mistake. I was there when Mr.Harper came to St-Lambert and Mayor Gladu gave CPC's Patrick Clune his total support for the next election. And yes, this will translate in additional votes for Clune, not fewer. It's his 3rd time around, people know him and like him, therfore he should win.
08 08 09 MC
The NDP will play spoiler, allowing the Bloc to keep Saint-Lambert in their grasp. The NDP seem to be putting a massive amount of effort here, which will make things extremely difficult for the Liberals.
The Greens are running Diane Joubert who may stunt the NDP efforts.
My Prediction: BQ- 35% LIB- 24% NDP- 17% CON- 16% GRN- 7% OTH- 1%
08 08 08 R.O.
Well the riding presents some opportunity for the liberals as it was one that they held before. Unlike the other 3 by-elections that were held in bloc quebecois ridings In Roberval , Saint Hyacinthe and Repentigny all of which had not even been liberal at all in recent years. But at the same time this is an area where the bloc did fairly well last election and the party seems to be doing better in the montreal area now. So I’m not expecting this riding to come running back to the liberals. More this by-election is likely to be a missed opportunity for them and rookie candidate Roxanne Stanners. As for the conservatives the riding is not an area where they did that well in previous elections but still an area where they have some potential although the riding is an unlikely win. But this will be the 3rd time Patrick Clune has ran in this riding as he was conservative candidate in previous 2 elections. So even though Maka Kotto first won this seat over longtime liberal mp Yolande Thibeault due to sponsorship scandal and his personal popularity its likely new bloc candidate Josee Beaudin will be able to hold it.
08 08 08 Neal
Paul, Patrick Clune is the son of former PC Cabmin Andree Champagne, and is therefore a francophone. The Conservatives have made sufficient inroads in Quebec among Francophones that they could conceivably take this. I agree with you that the Libs are out of this one.
I believe the federalist vote will coalesce around Clune, and the third time will be the charm.
The Bloc is starting to ```look like an irrelevant spent force.
08 08 05 Paul Tremblay
I expect a Bloc win for the following reasons :
-1- There is no evidence that Maka Kotto won votes other than those which his party would have received anyway. As such Kotto's absence from the ballot will not lower the Bloc vote.
-2- If Non-Francophones would vote massively Conservative in the same way that they voted Liberal before 2006, a Conservative win could happen here. Patrick Clune is sufficiently well known to win a majority of the Non-Francophone vote. The problem is that there are still too many Non-Francophones who continue to support the Liberals... and his majority among Non-Francophones won't be big enough to allow him to win.
-3- The Liberal Party is so unpopular among Francophones currently that one cannot reasonbly expect them to win any Quebec seat other than those where Non-Francophones form a majority -- Saint-Lambert is 77 % Francophone.
08 07 28 seasaw
up until '04, this riding and the old riding had voted Liberal in all but three elections, 1930, 1958 and 1988; the Bloc won in '04 and '06 because of the sponsorship scandal and Makko Kotto, neither one is a factor this time around; PM Harper visited the riding and got a good reception, the CPC will likely do better than they did in '06 but not well enough to come close to winning, Mr Dion and his carbon tax are fairly popular in this neck of the woods at least and this is traditionally a federalist riding, so Liberals by a comfy margin over Bloc with CPC closely behind the Bloc.
08 06 25 PJ
PM Harper visited the riding for St-Jean Batiste Day. Great turnout in Greenfield Park. A bunch of local elected officials attended. Longueuil Mayor Claude Gladu surprised everyone with an open support for Conservative candidate Patrick Clune.
As a twist, the Liberal candidate is getting the cold shoulder from local Anglos for publishing an ad featuring a FLEUR de LYS painted on her cheekbone and wishing Bonne Fete Nationale... Ouppssss...
08 06 13 Philly D.
Polling from the Greater Montreal area now has the Tories and Grits about equal and 10 points behind the Bloc, while the NDP is about 5 points behind both. Assuming Clune runs again, and the NDP taking the provincial average, this is just too close to call, although the Tory ceiling is probably limited and the Liberals have some base. Still, it wouldn't be a major shock if they came in fourth, as it will be the case in a LOT of ridings in Quebec next federal election.
08 04 05 PJ
While we must always remember that 6 months in politics is history, a quick look at the 2007 provincial election gives us an insight into voting trends. The St-Lambert federal riding includes the provincial ridings of Laporte (Lib), Marie-Victorin (PQ) and a small portion of Taillon (PQ).
Granted the PQ vote was divided with Quebec Solidaire and while soft nationalists voted ADQ, but it is interesting to see that the PQ only scored in Laporte (non-star candidate) 25%, in Marie-Victorin (Star candidate) 40% and Taillon (Star candidate) 35%. In turn the combined total of Prov libs + ADQ scores were 63% in Laporte, 50% in Marie-Victorin and 55% in Taillon. Conclusion, there is voter fatigue in this traditional PQ stronghold.
Another interesting point, is a post by a reporter on the blog of the local paper Longueuil Extra.
This paper, and sister paper Courrier du Sud, have always been pro-separation. Yet in this post ?Qui parle pour Longueuil?, the reporter clearly states that the greater South Shore has no MP in government or the Official Opposition, no one in influence to bring forward local projects.
So with the weakness of the Federal Libs in francophone voters, and the non-results of 18 years of Bloc MP's, is the time ripe for a conservative win.
08 04 02 Smok Wawelski
first off, St Lambert and Longueuil are two vastly different places, the former is affluent the latter is not.
Maka kotto won because of his celebrity status, combined with scandal surrounding Yolande Thibault and Adscam.
If Dion has gone ahead and parachuted ANOTHER candidate in would seem to seal the deal, and Federalists will rally around Patrick Clune who has worked hard to build a profile.
Minus Kotto's star power, the Bloc will be at a slight disadvantage viz 2004 & 2006.
08 03 29 PJ
In so far as the Liberal candidate, it should be pointed out that she was parachuted by Dion himself over the wishes of most members of the riding association. Local papers quoted the 2006 candidate as saying that they by-passed a local city councilor to appoint a Dion leadership campaign director. That alone is the kiss of death (Look to Outremont and Saskatchewan). She is formerly from western Canada and does not live riding. Just what you need to win over local votes.
It should also be noted the 60% of the riding is in Longueuil where Ren? Levesque, Pauline Marois and today Bernard Drainville (formely of Radio-Canada) have their provincial ridings. Longueuil will always a nationalist stronghold. St?phane Dion will NEVER win in Longueuil. So anybody that calls for a liberal win in Saint-Lambert is NUTS.
The Conservative candidate tripled his vote from 04 to 2006 and was 2nd in 60% of the Longueuil polls, but yes far behind the Bloc. He does live in the riding and is the son of Conservative Senator Andr?e Champagne.
Don't forget that the CPC came in within 1500 votes of winning St-Hyacinthe last September.
With recent polls from CROP indicating an even split in Quebec between the Bloc and CPC, Liberal voters will have a difficult choice of splitting the vote and giving away the riding to the separatist or voting conservative and have a shot at beating the Bloc.
08 03 24 binriso
Alright this is probably a BQ win by default but theres a chance for both the Liberals and the CPC. CPC arent strong enough here though it looks like, lets point out their sub-20% showing last time around. The Liberals beat the CPC here by about 2000 votes last time, but they were still less than 25% overall and about 20 points back of the BQ. NDP and Green predictions are nuts unless they get absolute super-star candidates. Itll probably just go back BQ again, but theres some hope for federalist parties(Liberals took it twice in 1997 and 2000), although theyll probably split the votes nicely like they will in several other Quebec ridings, which will allow several more BQ MPs to be elected, with likely less than 40% of the votes.
On second look CPC have the same candidate as the last couple elections, not necessarily anyone high profile or having any great chance here. Liberals have a shot here now if they get someone good. Thatd be a huge win for Dion although unlikely.
One other thing the Tories didnt really improve in Willowdale either, they got pretty much the same as in the last election.
08 03 20 Smok Wawelski
Without Maka Kotto, this one becomes a race. The Bloc only took the seat in '04 because The heat was on over Adscam and they had celebrity Kotto on the ballot.
The Liberals may be damaged goods in Quebec right now, but there are enough educated Montreal types there who will not vote BQ.
This one will all be about turnout, so let's ask the following questions:
1) How fired up are Bloc voters in this suburban , and somewhat upscale riding?
2) Do the Liberals still have an organization to speak of there?
3) In light of the Tories improved fortunes in Vancouver Quadra and Willowdale, will they have a chance here?
4) Will the federalist vote coalesce around either the Liberal or the Tory?
IMHO, it is in the best interests of both the Liberals and tories to inflict as much damage on the Bloc as possible. As long as the Bloc remains a force strong enough to snap 20 + seats in QC, it will be very difficult for either of the two major parties to ever get a majority again. If the Bloc can hang on here, it gives them some momentum in the region for the next federal vote. If they are taken down, the reluctance of people to back a loser may cause enough Bloquistes to stay home or switch allegiances that this and neighbouring seats might flip to a federalist party.
In any case the federalist party who can find a quality, high profile candidate will be at a distinct advantage.
08 02 16 A.S.
No Maka, yet maybe the Liberals no maka the comeback--after all, were it not for St Lambert and Greenfield Park, CPC would've been in second. As something the Liberals lost in '04 rather than '06, it's accordingly lower on the pecking order--and remember, too, how ex-Grit MP Yolande Thibeault's own election to Parliament came under the Gomery cloud. Okay, ‘that was then’, and especially without Maka Kotto there's no BQ guarantee here either. Tories, maybe? (Yeah, right.)
07 11 14 Pharmboy
Mr. Kotto is switching to provincial politics and is running for the PQ in the upcoming yet-to-be called by-election. (See article in the Globe)
This riding has always been a federalist-sovereignist marginal. Won by the Liberals right up till the sponsorship scandal. If the federalist vote is not split (i.e. Liberal vote collapsing, strong Con numbers in Quebec), this will become a very competitive BQ-Con marginal, assuming Kotto is successful at the provincial level or no federal election happens before then.
07 10 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
The conservatives will do well in rural Quebec but St Lambert most certainly is not a rural riding. It is suburban and suburban Montreal is not fertile ground (yet?) for the CPC. Furthermore, St Lambert is a very close suburb to the city, you can see the downtown skyline from much of it. Much as with Toronto's suburbs, the outter burbs will fall first to the CPC before the inner ones. Look for north shore ridings or St Bruno to go CPC long before this one.
The Liberal vote has collapsed pretty much completely in rural Quebec, however the report we have heard said that they we're more or less holding their own in the Montreal region and were still ahead of the CPC.
07 10 19 C B
Another riding which should at the very least be too close to call. The Liberal vote has all but collapsed in the province and the Tories are almost at par with the Bloc. The Conservatives WILL do well in rural Quebec if they maintain their current numbers, and they will start to take some of these suburban Montreal ridings as well. This should be an interesting race, don't be surprised if the Tories take it.
07 04 06 J.F. Breton
Maka Kotto ne devrait pas être trop inquiété ici, parce qu'il s'agit de Maka Kotto. Victoire bloquiste avec une majorité réduite.
07 04 05 Brian Appel
This was my riding for a number of months, and it is not, by nature, a separatist riding. It was held by a Liberal for a number of years(who won quite handily in 1997), so the potential for the Bloc to lose here is there. The ADQ did quite well in the provincial ridings within Saint Lambert, so a Conservative victory isn't out of the question. I actually think that Maka Kotto's re-election here will be based on a vote-split between a resurgent Liberal Party and rising Conservative numbers in Quebec. In the end, after all, Marie-Victorin stayed PQ.

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