Prediction Changed
6:30 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Chatwin, Justin
James, Andrew
Oliver, Joe
Volpe, Joseph

Hon. Joe Volpe

2006 Result:
Joe Volpe **
Peter Coy
Maurganne Mooney
Patrick Metzger
John Brian Steele

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 23 T Ball
As perfect an example of all that is wrong with politics as he is, Joe Volpe is bulletproof in this riding, believe me.
08 09 22 Initials
While some Conservatives keep talking about ‘the Jewish vote’ as if it was monolithic, I can say based on my own preferences and those of fellow Jews that there is support for different candidates - certainly a lot residual Liberal support in the circles I frequent which includes more reform and conservative Jews, the more liberal branches of Judaism. West of Bathurst, which is the largest part of the riding, Joe Volpe looks safe. East of Bathurst, any census of lawn signs is poor way to judge anything because signs are less evident. In the last provincial election, there were more Tory signs than Liberal, and that applied to the adjacent provincial riding East of Yonge all the way to Bayview. And one can't ignore the fact that Volpe has always had a very deep, very loyal, very effective organization.
08 09 22 JLS
Metroland's David Nickel seems to be the only journalist who has picked up on what is going on in this riding. There has been a fundamental shift within the Jewish community. Volpe's traditional Jewish support has all but disappeared. This riding is one to watch. Either way, it will be VERY close.
08 09 22 MH
I happened to drive along Glencairn today from Caledonia to Avenue Road. West of Bathurst there was a flood of Joe Volpe signs, with a very occasional Joe Oliver sign and nothing for the NDP or Greens. East of Bathurst there were few signs, evenly divided between Volpe and Oliver. Again: nothing for the NDP (no surprise) or Greens. There was nothing to suggest that Volpe will go down to defeat at Oliver's hands. The Conservative Party is well advised to concentrate its efforts in ridings like Don Valley West and Etobicoke Lakeshore, where it has a chance of winning.
08 09 21
I think this is a riding to watch -
Firstly, if the PC candidate from the provincial election, who I presume is Jewish, came within 2000 votes in the disastrous provincial election, and with Peter Shurman's surprise victory in Thornhill, I think that the strength of the Jewish community needs to be examined more closely.
I have family in the area, and they report seeing the most blue signs ever - not to mention West of Dufferin and even in shop windows on Dufferin as well!
If there is one suprise in a few weeks, it will be this riding.
08 09 18 MH
If only the voters clustered around the Cricket Club and in the blocks south of it could vote, Mr. Oliver would probably win E-L in a walk. But further west Mr. Volpe has a huge edge. He won handily in 2006, and although the contest should be a bit closer this time, it would take a Conservative landslide in Ontario to defeat him. There are no signs of that (yet). So as things stand, E-L is a safe Liberal hold.
08 09 17 King of Kensington
I agree with ‘Redistribution’ that federal and provincial elections often take on a different cast, though the more significant redistributions of Eg-Law occurred in 1996 when it took in North Toronto - prior to that it was entirely contained within York and North York and stretched further west. Then in 2003, Eg-Law ‘traded’ Oakwood/Vaughan for upper Forest Hill with St. Paul's. But interestingly enough - the areas actually won by the Conservatives last time were in Eg-Law all along - the Yonge Blvd./Cricket Club area and the Orthodox Jewish pocket around Bathurst and Glencairn where the ‘Asper Tory’ phenomenon took off. The Forest Hill polls in fact went solidly Liberal in the last federal election, as did North Toronto, Ledbury Park, Lawrence Manor and of course everything west of the Allen.
08 09 16 Redistribution
This is a Federal Election with Federal issues, If anyone thinks the liberal base is diminishing, they are correct, but it has No Thing to do with Mike Colle. It has to do with the Riding redistribution, Mike Colle lost 5000 Liberal votes from south of Eglinton ave. and only inherited 1000 Liberal votes through the redistribution, he inherited an area that is very Conservative for the most part, lets do the math, If Mike Colle had 19340 votes in 2003, after the distribution he lost 5000 Liberal votes, that brings him to 14000, then he inherits 1000 votes which brings him to 15000, Then he was re-elected with 16500 votes in 2007, which means that Mike Colle has actually gained support, I won't even get into the bad weather and low voter turn out factors, I'm just saying Mike Colle is well liked in his neck of the woods. So the Conservatives Gained 3000 votes, partly from the redistribution, because the Conservatives clearly didn't really lose many votes in the redistribution, and mostly because of the private school stand by the conservatives, lets face it the thats a big issue in the area, and Volpe was supporting that issue. will the 3000 go Conservative or will they support Volpe who was very supportive of the private school issue. and I bet you can't say this all in one breath.
08 09 16 grab your lunch box and go home
This Riding has been Liberal ever since Peter Parker picked a pack of pickled ripe red peppers, back when Liberal Star Mike Colle won the riding redistribution in the 90's. everyone knows that Volpe's camp isn't well liked by the Provincial Liberal camp mainly because of Volpes stand on Private school funding, Volpe Kicked Colle when Colle was down, Now the Question is, will the provincial Liberals come to Volpe's aid? we have to see, Also will Volpe's stand on private school funding hurt him or benefit him? we just have to see. Volpe and Colle are household names in the Eglinton- Lawrence area, the more these two scrap it out the more popular they become, they are way too popular for some no name nobody to take out. So grab your lunch box and go home.
08 09 15 Elizabeth Finneron-BUrns
Unfortunately I think this riding will go Liberal again. The riding is an interesting mix of groups that, whether we like it or not, do tend to vote as a block. Volpe doesn't even bother coming over to the east side of the riding - what's the point? He's already locked the election in the west. Even between campaigns he has most of his events in the west at Villa Colombo and the like. With good reason - he keeps his core Italian vote happy and onto the Hill he goes.
In the October, 2007 provincial election Mike Colle won by only a small number of votes after having been recently disgraced. Volpe disgrace happened long enough ago that voters have forgotten completely. Those who do remember will say ‘hmm didn't he do something as Immigration minister? I can't quite remember.’ Point is, if Colle can win, Volpe will too.
08 09 14 PY
The funny thing about Joe Oliver is that I have heard of him as a former president and CEO of the Investment Dealers Association (IDA) and as a former chairman of the Canadian Securities Institute (CSI, which is the institution that offers the Canadian Securities Course, or CSC, amongst others). It certainly gives him a certain cachet with Bay Streeters and corporate Canada, but that's otherwise lost on the everyday voter in this riding.
In the end, Volpe's name will still carry him well enough for the win.
08 09 12 bruce lee round house
I recall a Prime minister Brian Mulroney visiting St.Clair ave west many years ago, Corso Italia, but I don't recall ever seeing a Conservative MP there, Unless they were just visiting for an espresso.
08 09 11 senators09
If the leaders' tours say anything about confidence levels and expectations of their parties, then the Prime Minister's visit to Villa Columbo here in Eglinton-Lawrence should speak volumes.
08 09 08 Stevo
I don't think Marco realizes that Joe Volpe is probably a drain on the Liberal tally, rather than the reverse. This will probably be the Conservatives' strongest 416 riding outside of Etobicoke. They won't win, but they may surprise many observers with a strong second-place finish - perhaps within 5 points if the Tories win the election as a whole with a majority.
08 09 04 Mel Patraglia
Joe Volpe, love him or hate him, As Immigration minister, he did not hear any appeal from Holocaust denier Ernest Zundel, The next day Ernest goes to Jail in Germany. ?Zundels' lawyer Peter Lindsay said he did not expect the deportation to happen for at least another week or two, to enable him to appeal the court's decision? Imagine that, an Italian Member of Parliament sent the Holocaust denier packing...
08 08 29 Marco
It looks like Spunky gets his information from the Department of Huh?
First of all, he doesn't know what he is talking about regarding the Jewish community. Except for some altacockers who are grumpy about taxes and the kids with their music and long hair, the Jewish community is not a lock for the Tories.
Second and most importantly, where is the proof that Volpe may not run again? That is total garbage and a Tory smear to make Volpe's supporters think twice before voting for him. This is libellous and totally out of bounds. It's a disrespect to this forum that he would even post that sort of trashy lie.
Finally, I don't know what he trying to suggest about the percentage of Italians in the riding. Forget the fact that his stats are wrong; is he suggesting that just because someone is Italian, they would automatically vote for the Liberals? This sort of ethnic-vote profiling shows an extreme degree of prejudice and immaturity.
Luckily most people in our riding are not like Spunky and for that reason, Joe Volpe will win this election.
08 08 14 Spunky
There are some interesting dynamics in play in this riding. Joe Volpe has lost much of his lustre and credibility in the post-Chretien, post Liberal leadership period. Speculation abounds that he may not run again. With the Harper Government's unequivocal support of Israel and his winning of the Bnai Brith award, this riding's 23% Jewish population could make a huge difference in the outcome of the election. The once dominant Italian population is now only about 12% of the electorate, with many making the migration to Woodbridge. In addition, the Tories have a strong, credible candidate in Joe Oliver. It would be a mistake to assume that this riding is a Liberal lock.
08 04 05 The Jackal
Let's face it this is a solid Liberal riding. This riding went red in the 1984 Mulroney sweep of the country and survived the 1988 ficaso where Volpe unseated De Cornielle for the nomination and was challenged by ex-Liberal cabinet minister turned Tory Tony Abbott. This will go Liberal for a long time to come.
08 03 28 St. Paul's Progressive
As unethical as Joe Volpe may be, I don't think we'll be seeing a result anything close to that of the provincial election where Mike Colle only won by 2,500 votes. Provincial turnout is lower than federal turnout and this last provincial election I believe had the lowest turnout in Ontario history. It turned out to be a referendum on religious schools and many people refused to vote because they felt other issues were being ignored. There is a large Orthodox Jewish community in Eglinton-Lawrence and they turned out in large numbers to vote for school funding while many others sat it out. This scenario won't be occurring in the next federal election.
08 03 14 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
IF Harper is in majority territory, he has a shot here and only IF Volpe tries to screw over Dion and quit at the last minute (we wouldn't put much stock in rumors and mutterings in coffee shops), then the conservatives MAY have a shot at this one. Here's the news flash the conservatives ARE NOT in majority territory and this IS NOT an open riding. Let's stop the nonsense and try to base our predictions on some solid facts and not rumors, whispers and wishful thinking.
08 03 01 Initial
What happened to Colle was that his Italian base abandoned him in the West end. Oliver has been getting similar results, as people are whispering in the Legion Halls and cafes that maybe Volpe's time is done. In fact, many believe Volpe won't run again anyways, and that he's only delaying the announcement because of his hatred of Dion. Oliver has this working for him, a strong base of support in the Jewish community, and the bay street pedigree to win over the upper-middle class Lytton Park voters. If Harper is in majority territory, this will be the first riding in the 416 to go CPC.
07 12 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
CPC prediction? Nonsense! You can not compare provincial and federal elections results. Different campaigns, different issues. And don't look too much into candidates, urban voters vote for parties, not individuals (or else how could Volpe have stayed in for so long?). Bottom line, the most solid bit of evidence that can be used in electionpredicting, the polls, say the CPC is in a statistical dead heat with the Liberals (at 30 and 32% respectively) with the Liberals dominating the major urban centers. With numbers like that the CPC don't have a hope in hell over coming an 11K+ lead that the Liberals have. To believe otherwise is just plain nieve.
07 12 16 King of Kensington
It's nice to see Fraser Macdonald is back to repeat Conservative talking points, though I doubt even Tory strategists seriously think they'll be taking Eglinton-Lawrence. Again the fact that a crook like Mike Colle *won* demonstrates how safe this riding is for the Liberals.
Also I don't see any difference between Dion on Israel from that of Chretien and Martin so I don't see Jewish support for the Conservatives breaking out of the Orthodox enclaves in any significant numbers. Besides as hard as it is for Mr. Macdonald to believe, most Jews aren't single-issue voters.
07 12 12 F Macdonald
Joe Oliver, the Conservative candidate, has the best set of credentials any Toronto Tory candidate has had in a long time. While Colle was hurt by scandal, that election was close for a variety of reasons. Jewish voters have shifted to the Tories and should remain there because of Dion's weak stance on Israel. Furthermore, Colle proved that Italians could become detached from their own kind, and many of them voted Conservative, or stayed home. Another factor is that the demographics of the riding are actually shifting in favour of the Tories. For instance, a huge Filipino population that are socially conservative and have zero attachment to the Liberals have become a larger demographic group than Italians in the riding in the past few years. Tanz capitalized on this in the Ontario election, and Oliver has already been seen at more Filipino events than I ever knew existed. Volpe doesn't have the advantage of being in government and cabinet, and will be in for the fight of his life this time around.
07 11 17 Stevo
Joe Volpe is a revolting person, but this is Eglinton-Lawrence, home of the diehard old-money Grits (along with St. Paul's) and young hip professionals around Yonge & Eglinton. Alas, somebody who isn't fit to be dog-catcher gets a free ride to Parliament for as long as he wants it. Not that the Conservatives don't their share of those - Rob Anders, anyone?
07 10 23 binriso
There is no way Joe Volpe will lose. The only reason the provincial result was so close was because of the problems Mike Colle got himself into with his supposed scandal (not to mention faith-based schools was actually somewhat popular in the riding). Otherwise it will go Liberal in lopsided margins and most likely with over half the votes cast.
07 10 15 King of Kensington
Eglinton-Lawrence is the Mount Royal of Toronto. The fact that Mike Colle could be re-elected in this riding speaks volumes about how safe a Liberal riding this is. Even though few people may want to have a ‘Joe Volpe’ sign on their lawn he should have no trouble being re-elected.
07 10 12 gos
This riding has been on an upward trend over the last few years, getting stronger both provincially and federally. The provincial election result had only a 2,000 vote margin, about 5.6%, the strongest Conservative riding in Toronto.
Joe Volpe must be looking over his shoulder and seeing a strong challenger in Joe Oliver - why else would Volpe have come out in favour of PC policy and against the provincial Liberals?
07 04 06 A.S.
It's sobering to consider that in spite of what ought to have been a throwaway candidate and campaign, the Conservatives scored one of only 4 1/2 (the 1/2 being Pickering-Scarborough East) 30% finishes in Toronto in '06 *here*, of all places--and that was *before* all of Joe Volpe's leadership-race shenanigans. Doubly sobering in that the margin was only a few points less than Volpe's first winning margin, back in '88--however, that was under different boundaries (i.e. sans North Toronto). Blame that cornerstone ?Stockbrokers'n'Semites? demo E of the Allen Road; but even with all allegations against Volpe, it would be out of Mulroneyite left field if CPC went that extra step and pulled off a victory here. A less than 10% margin, though, is within the realm of possibility...
07 04 03 St. Paul's Progressive
Like neighbouring York Centre, Eglinton-Lawrence is a very, very safe Liberal riding represented by a person who ran for the Liberal leadership. However Joe Volpe is much less appealing a candidate than Ken Dryden, and was harmed by his leadership run so I suspect that while both will easily coast to victory, Dryden should win by an even larger margin than Volpe due to personal popularity. Still, the most I can see the Conservatives getting here is in the low 30s which is roughly equivalent to the PC-Reform ?united right? vote and what the Harris Tories received here.
07 03 21 M. Lunn
Joe Volpe may be a complete slimeball, but this is a safe Liberal riding and pretty much anybody could win as a Liberal. In fact I doubt the Conservatives would have cracked the 30% last election if the Liberals had a more ethical candidate. Most people I know from this riding vote Liberal because of the party, not Joe Volpe.

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