Prediction Changed
12:18 PM 19/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Canadian
Baxter, Dorian
Brown, Lois
Hubbers, Glenn
Jones, Tim
Christian Heritage
Luff, Ray
New Democratic
Seaward, Mike

Hon. Belinda Stronach

2006 Result:
Belinda Stronach **
Lois Brown
Ed Chudak
Glenn Hubbers
Dorian Baxter
Peter Maloney

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 11 CPC Supporter
Dion came to the riding and spoke to a crowd of 50 people in Newmarket today. There were lots of Conservative signs and it generated no media coverage. Harper has momentum and I think this will be one of the first gains in the GTA.
08 10 10 Barbie's Ex
Stronach's personal popularity stole this riding for the CPC in 2004; in 2006 she won it for the Libs by a larger majority (5000+) due to the significantly larger base Lib support here. These last few days have seen Ontario as a whole swing (back) to the Libs, and shy away from the Sweater-man. As well, Tim Jones (former Aurora Mayor) has much more name recognition than Lois Brown (who?). Libs will win by at least 2000. (Although back in Sept it did look like a CPC victory.)
08 10 10 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Going with the heard on this one. There's name recognition for both major candidates, however there is a more favorable recognition with Lois Brown. Couple that with the recent Dion gaffe that has haulted Liberal momentum and this will go CPC.
08 10 10 CPC Supporter
Things were looking like they might get close after national polls started falling, but today it looks like the bleeding has stopped and Harper has regained the momentum after Dion's interview gaffe. This riding will go Conservative this time without question. Lois Brown won all the debates.
08 10 10 Predi Pro
It is interesting to note that the Election Prediction Project in the last federal election correctly predicted the outcome in Ontario 92.5% of the time. They only had 8 ridings called incorrectly. Newmarket Aurora was one of the ridings that they incorrectly predicted. It was predicted as going Conservative and the Liberals won. knowing this, I am suprised that the prediction at this point is not ‘To close to call’.
This riding will be a very tight race.
08 10 09 Dave
MH, you said... ‘In recent elections this riding and the two it was carved out of, Vaughan-Aurora and York North, have usually gone Liberal’.
Just a point of clarification... that's a little misleading. I would agree with you on the part of the riding that consumed Aurora, but not Newmarket. In the elections through the 1990s when the right of the political spectrum was split between PC and Reform/CA, the Liberals were winning nearly all seats in Ontario. In York North (which consisted of Newmarket, East Gwillimbury and parts of Georgina and King), it was this vote-splitting that put the Liberals into power, not that the area voted predominately Liberal--because they didn't.
In the 2000 and 1997 elections, the combined vote of PC and CA/Reform was greater than the Liberal vote. Add in the NDP, and 30% was all it took to win this riding back then.
We can't really go back prior to that, because in 1993 and earlier the York North riding actually consisted of Vaughan, Richmond Hill and Aurora, so it's really a completely different riding with the same name. Prior to that, Newmarket was part of the predominatly conservative York-Simcoe riding.
08 10 09 Joshua Zuckerman
I agree with those who say that this riding may lean more Liberal than Conservative. The reason Stronach won it in 2004 as a Conservative was because she was a red tory (people knew she was pro-choice and pro-gay because she said so in the press)- if another Conservative had run here in 2004 they would have lost. The reason it went Liberal by a larger margin in 2006 than it had gone in 2004 even though the Liberals lost power is because voters saw her change to the party they most wanted to vote for.
However, because the Conservatives have the better-known candidate this time around, they may have the edge since they started with more momentum. If Stonrach was running here again she would win. Nevertheless, the Liberals now have a chance to win this seat since their numbers have overtaken the Conservatives in Ontario. This seat may need to be re-evaluated in a few days depending on the final election polls.
08 10 08 Dave
T.V., you're not considering that Belinda was more personally popular with Liberals than she was with Conservatives. It was very messy when she won the Conservative nomination. Many in the party didn't think she was a true conservative, especially given her families ties to the Liberal party.
I don't have to look any further than my own family, where my brothers, who are traditionally Liberal, voted for Belinda as a Conservative (first time ever voting Conservative for them), and I, who have normally voted Conservative, just stayed home that year on voting day. After Belinda switched to the Liberals, I believe that jump in votes for the Conservatives was a lot of traditional conservatives coming back into the fold.
Essentially, Belinda was not universally popular in the riding. She was one of those polarizing people who was loved by many and loathed by many. In each election, I believe she caused many non-voters to vote, and many voters to stay home, depending on your perspective.
As far as determining whether the riding is traditionally red or blue, I don't think one can really say. The riding only came into existence in 2004, so it's only ever had 2 elections in it's current form. You also can't ignore that people here just elected a provincial Tory in an election where the leader was a dud and the province-wide popularity of the party was in the toilet.
I think it's going to come down to which party can best motivate their supporters to show up on voting day. There is no 'star power' candidate for either party to either attract or repel voters this time.
I also suspect you will see Aurora vote Liberal and Newmarket more Conservative. In both towns, the newer areas will show heavier Liberal tendancies than the older areas. If you look at poll by poll results from the last 2 elections, you will see those tendancies.
08 10 08 MH
In recent elections this riding and the two it was carved out of, Vaughan-Aurora and York North, have usually gone Liberal. The exception was Belinda Stronach's election (by fewer than 700 votes) as a Conservative in 2004. When she ran as a Liberal in 2006 she won by almost 5,000 votes, and this even though the Liberals did worse in the 905 area than in 2004. Some of her increased plurality may have been because of name recognition, of course.
Until a week ago it made sense to call this for the Conservatives because of the party's increased support in the 905 area. The most recent polls suggest, however, that this support is now in decline, and as a result this riding is now TCTC. A Liberal victory is possible and perhaps even likely unless the CPC manages to turn the tide in the few days that remain until the election.
08 10 08 T.V.
Dave, that makes no sense. Belinda ran twice. Once as a Conservative, and then as a Liberal. As a Conservative, she won by 500 votes. As a Liberal, she won by 5,000 votes. Same person with the same personal popularity (or less because of her controversial switch). Different party. When the same person gains thousands of votes because she switched to the Liberals, it's pretty clear that the seat is naturally Liberal and only went Conservative because of Stronach. The site called this one way too early, and with the Liberals climbing steadily in the Ontario polls, they should hold the seat without much trouble.
08 10 06 the Stonster
I have to agree with election observer, Belinda won by 500 votes or so when she was a Conservative, When she crossed the floor to the liberals, she won by thousands of votes. Belinda with her great name, all the money she spent on her campaign as a Conservative, and ‘only wins by 500 votes’... I would cross the floor too. sorry Conservatives just calling it like I see it...
08 10 03 Dave
Election Observer: you're kidding, right? Doesn't Belinda's vote increase after she moved to the Liberals support, not detract from, the argument that she won because of who she is? The national Liberal vote for the Liberals did drop (as you said), but it increased in Newmarket-Aurora when Belinda switched to the Liberals because many people voted for her personal, and not the Liberal party.
There's another factor to consider... voter turnout. If you look at the numbers, all 4 major parties increased their vote count here in 2006 over 2004. There was roughly a 13% increase (about 58K vs 51K votes) in the number of votes cast in 2006. I suspect there were many people who did not vote in previous election(s) that voted for Belinda because of who she was. Time will tell if those voters bother to show up at the polls in 2008.
GOTV efforts will be key here, as the winning margin will likely be tight, and voter turnout could very well make the difference.
08 10 02 Election Observer
If Belinda only won because she's Belinda, then how can you explain her vote soaring after she switched to the Liberals, even though the national Liberal vote went way down? This is obviously an instinctively Liberal seat. It's a likely Tory pickup the way the election is going right now, but it's far from safe for them.
08 09 26 CPC Supporter
I agree with Aurora Dad. The Greens have put on a strong campaign. I am not sure if they will finish second, that might be a stretch; but I think the Greens are having an impact on what would normally be support for Liberal Tim Jones. If they double their vote from the last time (and Hubbers is a strong enough candidate - a great Green candidate in fact) than I think that could be the difference maker in itself. If any Liberal support bleeds to either the Greens or the NDP, Lois Brown will have this riding for sure.
08 09 25 Aurora Dad
Dave - you say the NDP unknown could help the Liberals. I do not see it that way. Glenn Hubbers as the Green Candidate is the only candidate that has run in the last 3 federal elections. There is significant public and private green signage (including keep up with Libs and Cons big signs).
Greens are the big story nationally and are even bigger locally. Glenn will do well in the local debates, he is campaigning full time and I believe will be challenging for second as the Dion factor is just too much to overcome.
Yes the NDP is non existent but the Greens are coming up strong. What ever left of centre vote is here will be split between Liberals and Green.
08 09 23 R.O.
This was the most interesting riding I was in by far when I passed thru this area. Still considered it to be too close to call but leaning conservative. This riding is loaded with election signs for Lois Brown and Tim Jones on seemingly every public street corner. But on private property Lois Brown was ahead in Newmarket area for sure only area where liberal was doing well appeared to be in more urban part of aurora. Not any sign of ndp here yet and not even sure they have a candidate yet but think in the end there not a big factor here. Also noticed a few signs for the singing elvis candidate Dorian Baxter at a few major intersections and was unaware his party even still exists but guess it does as he had signs up. Another interesting part of my visit here was when I accidentally drove by the Stronach property in aurora and for those who wonder who there voting for I couldn’t say as there was no signs at all there.
08 09 23 Lois Brown Supporter
The Liberals here are not factoring Dion. Belinda won only because she was Belinda and the national race was much closer. Paul Martin may have turned out to be a weak leader, but nothing compared to the disaster Dion is right now. The majority of voters here commute every day and have no interest in a carbon tax. Klees won this riding as did Belinda as a Conservative. Looking at Tim Jone's website it looks like Dion could only draw about 40 people in this riding. Belinda is not on the campaign trail and it is unclear if she even supports Dion or the carbon tax.
Tim Jones and Lois Brown are both candidates that do not bring many personal votes with them. With Belinda gone this race will come down to Dion vs. Harper. On those terms this will be no contest, especially if Harper visits this riding as expected.
08 09 22 Dave
I just don't see this riding staying Liberal. Some here have said they don't feel that Lois is a strong canadidate, but when compared to the competition, she's quite a star! People may know the Tim Jones name, but many not in a good way. The people of Aurora threw Jones out of the Mayoral office.
Also consider the provincial elections last year. At a time when John Tory was driving away voters--including traditional Tory supporters, conservatives still won here. In the current election, with a strong party leader (Harper) up against the weakest Liberal leader Canada has ever seen (Dion), the chances are good for Lois.
I think the big unknown may be the NDP. They seem to be very slow out of the gate in this election (I still haven't seen a single NDP sign), and if they continue to be weak, it could benefit the Liberals if traditional NDP types decide to switch their votes because they don't see much happening with their party locally.
08 09 22 prediction pro
This will be a close race. in 2006 the Conservatives won nationally by about a 6% margin, but Stronach won by approx. 9%. Now that the Cons are up by 11% that cuts into the lead by 4% so now down to 4% in Newmarket Aurora. Now the question would be, did Stronach bring in more than 4% of the vote based on name recognition? Hmmm, considering that she won by less than 1% when she ran as a Conservative, I dont think so.
With all the mistakes the Conservatives are making in addition to Lois Brown being a terrible candidate, I cannot see this riding going with the Conservatives. My prediction is Liberals by 4 points.
08 09 22 Prediction Pro
Reasons why I think Liberals will win. Lois Brown is a weak candidate for one. Second, when a national figure Belinda stronach ran as a Conservative against an unknown at the time, Martha Hall Findlay, Stronach only won by just over 600 votes. Now with a weak Conservative candidate, i cannot see the riding going Conservative, no matter what the national polls say.
Even after the defection of Stronach last time and all the resentment around that, the Liberals still won handily.
08 09 21 Newmarket's finest
With national numbers where they are and with Dion's campaign falling apart quickly, there is no way Liberals will hold on to this riding without Stronach. Signs and people I talk to in the riding show this riding is going Conservative. I think some of the ridings South of us will also come into play. Lois Brown will be elected to Ottawa on the 14th.
08 09 19 Gone Fishing
I see that this has been called Conservative.
Though a ways from the CN tower, this is a chink in the armour of the Liberal brand. The Liberals and Stronach money made this a hold-out so much longer than it really should be and the grits know it.
They will be ignoring the riding now trying to shore up the base so they don't get blown away nationally.
08 09 15 Aurora Dad
I think Lois has an early lead by all accounts locally and nationally. She has continued to work hard in the riding during the non election time. I agree the fickle Belinda voters should drift back to her. I will wait until I see some Debates action to update my opinion further.
What is also interesting is that I think that the Local Green Party Candidate - Glenn Hubbers has a good chance of a strong third place. He has also been a continued presence between elections and the NDP have not announced any one yet as of today at least.
08 09 14 CPC Supporter
This riding will go Conservative. Frank Klees won despite faith based schools a year ago. Belinda Stronach is gone from the scene and so is the vote that came with her. Stephane Dion is a major liability to Tim Jones. As the national Liberal campaign falls apart, this swing riding will go with the Conservative tide. There is already a huge sign advantage right now for the Conservatives. Lois Brown will take this riding by less than 3000 votes.
08 09 09 Paul
Many of us Aurorans remember the zoo Tim Jones ran when he was Mayor. I especially remembered the annual property tax increases that hovered around 10%. We threw him out of office because of that.
There are quite a few of us that will not vote Liberal because of him.
08 09 08 DK in NWMKT
I'll start off by saying that I wouldn't vote Conservative but this riding isn't really a true liberal riding and voted Conservative in the past. Without Belinda, I think that the CONs have a chance to get in here. Anyone who thinks that the majority of people will remember that Mr. Jones was the former mayor of Aurora are mistaken, as the population in this riding has exploded and recent residents have no idea who he is so they'll be voting for two ‘unknowns’ in their own eyes and given Dion's really dismal leadership, they'll probably vote CON and CONs will win by a thousand votes or so.
08 09 08 R.O.
Had been to this riding not that long ago and came to the conclusion it was more suburban than urban but very connected to Toronto. It’s the type of the seat the conservatives could win and did win back in 04 as well provincially last election. But at the same time it has a strong liberal base and a growing population/ changing demographics. But I think after Belinda Stronachs disappearing act as mp voters here will be looking for a new mp who actually plans to do things for the riding and can deliver results. The riding for the time being remains too close to call. In a couple more weeks it might not be depending on the overall race.
08 09 04 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
All right, I made my previous comments a day too early. Latest polling info has the CPC up to 38% and the Libs down to 29% and the CPC now leading in Ontario. TCTC but things can and will change in a heatbeat (whether it goes towards the blue or towards the red, that remains to be seen).
08 09 03 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
There's been a whole lot of silence about this riding for some time. What I'm about to write will probably change that as I'm sure it's going to be controversial. I think the Liberals are going to take it with a small yet comfortable margin (1000 - 2000 votes). Belinda is what made this riding interesting compared to other York region ridings. As was said in previous electionprediction-go-rounds, there are three types of voters here: Liberal voters, Conservative voters and Belinda voters. Giving the margin of victory for Belinda in 2006 vs 2004, it would appear that the Liberal voters out number the Conservative voters (Belinda narrowly won in 2004 as a Conservative yet did very well as a Liberal in 2006 Liberal disaster). I'm sure that Conservative partisans are going to squawk about how the GTA isn't a Liberal monolith and how the CPC will take this (and many other ridings)for this reason or that reason, but the truth is the Liberals are still polling like they did last election, the CPC is down a little and Liberal numbers are still solid in urban Ontario. What I will concede is that if these numbers start to shift during the campaign (and they very well could), the Liberals could (and probably would) lose this riding. Till I start seeing evidence of this, I'm calling this as a Liberal hold.
08 06 13 R.O.
Well going to update my prediction for this riding. I am starting to think Belinda Stronachs performance as mp or lack of it is going to hurt the liberals here. Some might even wonder if she returned to magna a longtime ago and forgot she was still mp for Newmarket Aurora. She has become so invisible as mp that when dion visited this riding a month ago the local newspaper had to make a note in the article that she was still mp just to remind people since some had likely though she had left already. Here is the exact quote ‘The riding is still represented by MP Belinda Stronach despite signalling a year ago she would not seek re-election’.
08 02 14 R.O.
This one is too close to call, very competitive riding now that Belinda Stronach has announced she is not running again. New liberal candidate has been selected Tom Jones who will be running against Lois Brown previous conservative candidate. Wouldn’t say Belinda’s re-electon here was a surprise considering she knew so many people in this area and was so high profile at the time. But whenever the next vote here happens it will be much different than the last one. In the last provincial election neither party got nearly as many votes as federal election, Ontario liberals got thousands less votes than Belinda did and pc’s didn’t get as much as cpc did last federal vote. More or less an unpredictable riding that hasn’t been following province wide trends anymore by electing high profile candidates over the party with regional momentum.
08 02 12 T,V,
There's a lot of wishful thinking here from Tories. Belinda Stronach barely won here, against someone who didn't live in the riding, despite as high name recognition as you could possibly have. As a Liberal, she won a much larger mandate despite a terrible year for the party nationally and an intense Tory campaign against her. This is obviously a Liberal riding, and there's pretty much no way the Tories will take it without a candidate as high-profile as Stronach. Klees might have been able to do it in a good year. I can't think of anyone else.
07 12 03 seasaw
This one'll go Tory by a nose. When Belinda won the first time, she was a Tory, she took it by a bigger margin as a Liberal, now she's gone and this should be a very close race but with Harper as Tory leader and Dion as Liberal leader, the advantage goes to the Tories.
07 11 07 Rebel
I think the longer Belinda is an absentee MP, the stronger will be the impetus to punish the Liberals (and her nominated successor) in this riding. The PC victory in the Ontario election is suggestive that this is a marginal on the ‘frontier’ between Liberal dominated Toronto/905 and Conservative dominated central Ontario and the Simcoes.
07 10 27 Stevo
I'm skeptical about the Conservatives' ability to finally bring Newmarket ‘home’ (Belinda's win in 2004 as a Tory doesn't really count since the she only barely won based on her name recognition). Many of us expected Lois Brown to defeat Belinda in 2006 but she ended up losing by a pretty significant margin of 5,000 votes. Was this due to Brown's past affiliation with the Canadian Alliance? or is it just that Newmarket has slowly become a more sheepishly autopilot-Liberal riding like many others in the 905? The race here will certainly be close but it's hard to say if the Tories can win over those few thousand swing voter holdouts. Interesting to compare Newmarket to Oakville, a demographically very similar riding. I expect the two seats will likely go to the same party in the next election.
07 10 15 The Outsider
If a local boy like Frank Klees could barely hold this riding by a thousand votes on October 10, it doesn't mean that this seat will immediately go to the CPC once Belinda retires. The Liberals should run whoever ran here in the provincial election to make this seat a horse race.
07 07 24 binriso
Conservatives should have this now with Belinda's departure. Really can’t see the Liberals holding on.
07 04 19 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
We're flip-flopping again. So CPC numbers are not as rosey and previously thought and they are not in majority territory in the polls. We feel that there CPC have a much better chance now that Belinda isn't running but it is not a sure-fire win for them unless their numbers rebound again. Way too close to call.
07 04 13
With Belinda still in the race, she had a good chance of taking this one back. With her leaving politics, Lois Brown has a really good shot at this, and I am sure the CPC HQ will spend lots of resources trying to win this one (Brown is quite close to Harper, I think). She will also have the name recognition from last election. Still, it is too close to call. And how knows? The Liberals could drop a star candidate here. That would make it interesting.
07 04 12 Brian Appel
Hehehe...can I call it or what? Anyway, with Belinda gone, this centre-right riding is going to be swept up by the blue tide. Conservative gain, easy.
07 04 12 Stevo
Okay, my first comment was made the day before Belinda announced her retirement from politics. Although this certainly opens up the race, I'm still cautiously predicting a very narrow Liberal win. Every adjacent riding save York-Simcoe went Liberal in a big way and it will take more than a minor shift to topple the Liberals here. One thing is for sure: the Liberal Party has got to be a little bit peeved that Belinda waited until now to announce her retirement. If they had run Martha Hall-Findlay here, the Libs would have undoubtedly retained it fairly easily. Instead, they've already wasted Hall-Findaly's talent in a safe 416 seat and will now be looking for a candidate who can't possibly match her high profile (is it possible for Willowdale to now ‘take back’ it's acclimation to allow her to run in Newmarket instead? has that ever been done?). Nod to the Liberals, but if the Tories surge in the 905, this seat could indeed fall.
07 04 11 King of Kensington
Brian Appel's question ‘what's up with Belinda these days?’ has been answered. With Belinda quitting politics this is an open seat. Given that it's exurban and WASP enough, I'll give the Tories the edge here. Maybe MHF should run here instead of Willowdale.
07 04 11 M. Lunn
With Belinda Stronach now retiring from politics, I would move this to too close to call. Considering how narrow her win was in 2004, this probably would have gone Liberal if Belinda Stronach weren't the candidate. By the same token this is one of the outerlying suburbs, predominately WASP, so in many ways not too dissimilar to Burlington, Halton, and Whitby-Oshawa, which went Conservative. I suspect a lot will depend on whether the Conservatives make gains in the 905 belt or fall.
07 04 11 R.D.
Now that Stronach has announced she won't run again, I am changing my prediction from Liberal to TCTC.
07 04 11 JC
Huge loss for the Liberals here, unless they find a strong cnadidate, the conservatives have this.
07 04 11 Initial
With the retirement of Belinda Stronach from politics I expect that the Conservatives will mount a serious challenge to the Liberals in this urban area of the 905. This is an area which the Conservatives will be heavily focusing (i.e. in time and resources) on in the next election.
07 04 11 G. Kennedy (not that one)
With Belinda not running, things open up. This is naturally a relatively conservative riding and while Belinda probably won it on her own terms in both '04 and '06, I'm sure it would have been close without her. In '06, in particular, with the Tories taking the government, I'm reasonably confident the Tories would have won.
I think Stronach's decision has taken the Liberals aback and they'll now be scrambling for a candidate. If it's not a notable one, I'm betting this goes Tory.
07 04 11 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
So Belinda is running back to Magna! The liberals can kiss this riding goodbye. Without her star-power the Tory's will take this with ease. It also helps that CPC numbers are still up in the 905 and the Liberals are down in Ontario. Nobody with any sense of objectivity can claim that this riding is not at least to close to call.
07 04 11 Rob C
With the surprise announcement that Belinda is not running, it gives the CPC a fighting chance. It is my opinion Belinda originally won this riding because of name value and not because of her CPC identification. The Liberals will still be favoured to win the riding. Lois Brown will be the CPC candidate...again. This fact probably helps the Liberals too.
07 04 11 Angry Ontarian
CTV News is reporting Belinda Stronach is NOT seeking re-election, and returning to Magna. If Martha Hall-Findlay decided to run in her own riding, could have been a Grit hold, but without them this affluent riding could turn Tory blue.
07 04 11 Stevo
I think many - including this site's owner, based on the 2006 prediction for this riding - were surprised when Belinda not only held on to her seat, but did so quite easily. I haven't heard the rumours that Brian Appel refers to, but it wouldn't surprise me if Belinda is becoming utterly bored in Ottawa and wants to move on to other things. The fact that she isn't as visible anymore probably has to do simply with the fact that her party is no longer in power. After all, we don't hear much from Scott Brison either these days. I don't know much about Lois Brown's positions on most issues, but I suspect the ‘far-right’ label some are attributing to her has to do exclusively with her involvement with the former Reform and Alliance parties than with anything she has actually said or done. But there's no doubt that her Reform-affiliation hurts her and will probably continue to deny her this seat. Belinda or no Belinda, the stars just aren't yet aligned for a Conservative victory in Newmarket.
07 04 08 Brian Appel
What's Belinda up to these days? We don't hear much about her anymore, and it's fueling rumours of her calling it quits before the next election. Anyway, this riding is being held by the star power of Belinda Stronach. If she runs again, I predict another Stronach hold. If she doesn't run, though, then the Conservatives are going to gobble this riding up quite easily.
07 04 07 MichaelM
I don't agree with Dr Bear & Prof Ape on Newmarket-Aurora. No mater what the polls look. Belinda will win again. The Conservative Candidate is Lois Brown again and she is a hard far-right-wing Neoconservative. This is a 905 riding. Most people in this riding may make $95,000 a year. However this is a prograsive riding. And a strong hold for Belinda Stronach because she did a lot for Newmarket-Aurora.
07 04 06 RF
Adding to what Bear and Ape have said about the riding, please keep in mind that Magna employs thousands of people in Newmarket-Aurora, and that recently, hundreds of jobs are to be cut. Rumour around town has it that Frank Stronach is buying Chrysler and relocating to Mexico.
If this happens, Belinda will be in hot water.
07 04 05 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
What we feel a lot of people are forgetting, despite Belinda's star-power and personal appeal, this riding is an affluent, far-from-Toronto 905 belt riding that have a very strong conservative element. The race here was closer in '06 than ridings like Oak Ridges-Markham, which is listed as TCTC, and keep in mind this riding has gone conservative in the past few years! Now the CPC is creeping up to majority levels in the polls and they are doing well in the 905. This is by no means a safe riding, probably their weakest in the northern 905, and the CPC still have an axe to grind with Belinda. They will be targeting this one and it could get ugly. Belinda may need the help of an enforcer...
07 04 04 R.D.
Michael M. is right that Belinda Stronach's company, Magna, has dramatically improved its relationship with the big auto unions over the past few years. Some people have given Belinda credit for that from her stint as CEO, personally I think it was more to do with pressure from their largest customers, the unionized Big 3, to ?play nice.? Further, now that the tables have turned in the auto industry and Magna is actually looking to buy Chrysler for 4.6 billion, the CAW has been impressed enough with the turnaround that they've lent their support to Magna's bid. But what does this have to do with her chances of getting reelected? As Daniel points out, this is a fairly wealthy, suburban riding. I do believe that Magna actually does have a parts plant in the riding, but I am not sure how many people work there and of those how many actually live in the riding. It's certainly never been enough to make the NDP competitive. But they may be a good voting bloc for Belinda nonetheless, and I expect she also WILL get support from the CAW (Buzz encouraged her to run for the Liberal leadership last year). That being said, you have to ask whether she really even wants to run again, and maybe spend another few years in opposition if today's polls are to be believed, when she could be CEO of Magna-Chrysler?
07 04 02 A.S.
Judging from the incoherence of MichaelM's last post, no wonder the NDP polling trend in Newmarket-Aurora has been 10% or worse, federally *and* provincially. But if the trend is anti-Liberal (and, if unlike last time, the Tory candidate isn't too ReformAlliancey), Bubba's Blonde (when she isn't Brunette) is definitely riding high on the hit list--maybe backhanded just desserts from newly safe-seated Martha Hall Findlay? Peter McKay's dog gone? Roll over play dead? Might Condi move to Canada and run against her for the Conservatives? All cheesy low humour aside, Belinda *isn't* a slam dunk, certainly not in this kind of borderline suburb/exurb/satellite riding, no matter who she is, or what her family position on labour is. But, she *did* advance from surprise-supermarginal as a Tory to surprisingly-just-marginal as a Grit; and now that her darkest days of political (if not personal) controversy are behind her, she seems rather benign, maybe too benign to inspire the same degree of opponents' ire. It almost doesn't matter if Belinda wins, loses, or even runs anymore...
07 04 02 Daniel
I don't know why you guys are discussing the ‘union vote’ factor in a riding comprised mostly of affluent upper-middle class suburbs. Looking at the NDP numbers, it would appear that their vote comes from a rather hard-core group of supporters who wouldn't be caught dead voting for a Blue Liberal.
If Stronach runs again, I give her the edge, but she's far from invincible (especially when you look at the increasing Tory numbers in the 905 region). Additionally, her profile has decreased dramatically since the 2006 election, and since the ‘floor-crossing’ effect has worn off, she won't have the ‘it’ factor that will get her coverage on national news broadcasts.
Alas, all this analysis may be for naught, as word seems to be buzzing that she doesn't want to run again. If that's the case, I give the Conservatives the edge in this riding.
07 03 30 MichaelM
Frank Stronach and Don Walker has terrible records on labour not Belinda
Buzz Hargrove suppored Belinda Stronach in the 2006 Federal Election reasons: 1. win/win contract with the CAW in Windsor Ont.
2. 3 plants Unions under the UAW in the US (State of michigan) in the past Frank Stronach did voted No on the UAW and Don Walker did frow out union votes. However Belinda voted alow the union to go in the plants.
3. She did a great job in the riding.
4. Keep the Conservatives out.
As for the 1st one that post hear that was not me posted that. He does not know what way the riding will go in the Ontario Election. And its not the NDP its self supported Belinda it was the NDP voters
07 03 29 RF
To the person below, talking about how Belinda Stronach has the NDP onside:
Newmarket-Aurora is like all other 905 ridings - the NDP is lucky if they get above 7-8% support. Do you think their support matters? Not a bit. Plus, Belinda Stronach has a terrible record on labour - her father's company, Magna, is known for its conspicuous labour practises (no union, accusations of high turnover). No labour movement will coalesce around Stronach, that's for sure.
Nonetheless, Belinda Stronach does well in this riding, and will likely continue to. There are still rumours out there that she is displeased with playing second fiddle to Martha Hall Findlay, and she may retire. If she does not, expect the Liberals to win by about 5-10%. My prediction is Lib 46%, CPC 41%.
07 03 25 MichaelM
There is no way Belinda Stronach will be defeated in this riding. While the riding may go NDP provincially, I think a lot of her economic views are fairly Social Democratic and this will attract NDP votes to her. Harper is not well liked here, and Belinda who is seen as down to earth, and friendly will likely gain from the negative view of Harper. Belinda should pick up over 50% of the vote this time. If she doesn't, she will be close. With the NDP supporting Belinda, the Conservatives should finish 2nd. The Greens shouldn't be a factor here. I think you should put this one in the win column for Belinda now, as she is crusing back to Ottawa.

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