Prediction Changed
3:16 PM 27/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Oak Ridges-Markham
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Arifin, Andy
Calandra, Paul
Taylor, Richard
Temelkovski, Lui

Lui Temelkovski

2006 Result:
Lui Temelkovski **
Bob Callow
Pamela Courtot
Steve Armes

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 12 King of Kensington
This riding is on the border between the Liberal-leaning inner-905 and exurbia so it could go either way. I'll give a narrow advantage to the Tories given that the Liberals got less than 50% here last time and they have lost ground in the 905 belt.
08 10 07 Jason C
Considering the competition that Lui is facing, I am sure that he is a shoe in again for this red riding. The other candidates that are running are very low profile people that either have very little life experience ( NDP candidate) or are not well known (Cons). This riding will remain red.
08 10 06 R.O.
Not a lot has been said about this riding in the media or on here really but still an interesting race. And a riding which could go either way I suspect even though it has been liberal for a number of years. But conservatives are doing better in the 905 area this election over previous years. So Paul Calandra could have more of a chance here than originally though but liberals will be tough to beat here I admit. A lot depends on the final week of the campaign I feel.
08 10 06 K.S.
This riding will remain Liberal. Remember last election when the 'winds of change' were supposedly going to turn this and other GTA ridings blue? Didn't materialize. Same thing this time around. Not to mention the national Liberal campaign is gathering some momentum as E-day approaches. Oak Ridges-Markham will stay red.
08 10 01 ystrad
I agree with Seesaw that this riding has the possibility of going Conserative, I too notice more Calandra signs, and have never seen a Liberal canvass my area in the 5 years I have lived in Markham. They the Liberals have relied on the Party Reputation to get the vote which is dissapearing with weak leadership, and the incumbent has not been vocal in obtaining Ontario's fair share under Confederation even when he was part of the Governing Party.
08 09 29 Johnny Quest
Was canvassing this past weekend in the riding and there is a definite change from when Bob Callow was running. Cons usually did well in rural , stouffville and King, and lost in urban, north markham and richmond hill, areas. This time Calandra has more visibility in Richmond Hill but the election in won in Markham. If he can pickup say 5 or more percent in the Markham part then last time, he will win by 1-2% on eday
08 09 26 Initial
There is a noticable difference in this riding this year with many more Conservative lawn signs, especially in some of the ethnic areas of Markham that in prior years were painted Liberal red. In the last two elections the Conservatives lost with an ever smaller difference. A further marginal shift could push the Conservatives over the top here. This weekend will see the first big name Conservative visiting the riding. Watch this riding as a bell weather on election night.
08 09 17 Raffi
Liberal MP Lui Temelkovski was at the Olympic homecoming ceremony last week in Stouffville and people seem happy with him and no one seems to know who the other candidates are in this election, Bob Calandra, I think will lose since Lui Temelkovski is everywhere and is quite popular with town folks.
08 04 08 R.O.
This riding is somewhat different than the others in york region its much bigger in size also has a large rural area. But I imagine population has grown even more as new subdivisions pop up in places like stouffvile and southern parts of the riding. Politically this riding has only existed in current form since 2004 when Lui Temelkovski first won it. The conservatives former candidate Bob Callow is not running here next election after several runs in this riding. A new candidate Paul Calandra was selected last year and I’m not sure if having that much time has helped him here or made much difference. But the real race will not start in these ridings until an actual election as its clear the mps are holding there own for now. A riding like this leans liberal but its not a guarantee it will stay there depending on the campaign so I’m still undecided here.
08 03 19 david gates
Too difficult to call right now. If the CPC under Mr. Harper get alot of momentum during a national campaign it might be enough to carry Paul Calandra to victory. However, Mr. Calandra has a huge hill to climb in that Lui has exceeded expectations as an MP. Initially written off as a bit of a dimwit, Lui has worked hard at giving himself a high profile in the riding. People who are not Liberals find it hard to dislike Lui once they have met him. Mr. Calandra got some nasty local coverage awhile ago but I don't think Lui or his minions need to bother flooging it. It might almost create sympathy for Mr. Calandra to bring up his difficulties in that when one thinks about it, one can often think of a person they know or heard about who is or has been involved in nasty wrangling with members of his/her own family - usually over money, estates and such things. Mr. Calandra would be far from unique in that regard. It's too bad Mr. Calandra did not win the CPC nomination back in 2004. He might have lost that election but would have then run and won in 2006. It will be difficult but not impossible for Mr. Calandra to win the upcoming election.
08 02 08 Koby
Lui will easily take this riding Liberal again.
The big news will be to see the (currently un-nominated) Green candidate take a bite out of all three big parties with the NDP bleeding the most. I didn't see one Green Party sign anywhere during the last provincial election, and they still managed to take 6% of the votes here. See current news coverage regarding how Green support is growing fast in the 905. The 905 area is now filled with young socially progressive families too rich and fiscally conservative to vote NDP, Liberal or Conservative. Expect the NDP to be bumped to fourth by the Greens.
08 01 21 seasaw
Too early to call this one, but this is one of those bellweather ridings that could go either way. The last time the Libs took it because Paul Martin was perceived to be the stronger and he was of course the more experienced leader, and fear factor, the fear of Harper being PM, now the leadership edge belongs to Harper, and fear factor's non existent. Lui's not been a particularly strong or effective MP. We have to wait and see how Harper and Dion do, between now and the next election.
08 01 07 TRL
A little early for a real prediction but I think this seat is perhaps the best chance the Conservatives have in York region (with the exception of existing York-Simcoe seat). This one will come down to two things 1. Leader’s performance on the Campaign 2. Candidates campaign before and during the election. Now obviously Lui ran two great campaigns in 2004 and 2006 and Callow maybe not so much. If the Conservatives can pick it up and run a great local campaign matched with a strong performance by Harper and a less than inspiring performance by Dion than this goes Conservative. Now that means there are a lot of pieces that need to fall in place but it can be done. If there is one thing that has been a characteristic of the last Conservative Campaign in Oak Ridges at both the provincial and Federal levels it is that the Candidates ran bad campaigns, you need a strong campaign to gain those extra couple of points or forget it.
By the way the Conservative Candidate was at our Legions Remembrance Day celebrations and was a guest speaker at my Rotary and Lions club - granted there are only 20 people or so at each event but the fact is he was there. I met him and his daughter at our Christmas Parade also, though he was not campaigning.
It is one of the biggest ridings it strikes me you might not run into a Candidate or a MP for that matter if you are at a different event on the same day.
07 12 18 AJ
Interesting messages here, and yes the Conservates did get 28,000 votes in the last election but with a candidate that has ran campaigns consecutively in 3 elections and lost. You always gain votes and momentum the longer your name is out there with better name recognition and Bob was out there trying to sponosor as many community events all the time. This new candidate Paul, not sure who he is and I have never heard about him, and have never seen him anywhere, not even at party's, town meetings, parades, vets events.
I agree the conservatives will get their share of votes but I don't think he will match Bob Callows vote count. When you compare the recent Ontario elections in this riding, the Liberals won and Dr. Helena received almost 50% of total votes bringing total Liberal votes back upto 2004 Federal votes for Lui Temelkovski's Liberals. I think the Liberals will maintain 50% or more votes and clearly will be way upfront of any newbie Conservative candidate. Liberals wins here again, and again.
07 11 22 R.O.
Not sure how the controversy surrounding the newspaper article will affect this race, but its not the biggest problem for conservatives here. One riding includes more liberal friendly areas like markham and maple, and these areas are growing in population. But I still think Paul Calandra has a chance here since previous conservative vote was over 28,000 unlike some other gta ridings. Admit liberal mp Lui Temelkovski has an advantage for now, will see how race unfolds province wide as this area can at times swing.
07 10 01 T.V.
Even without a scandal, there's no way that this riding will be going Conservative. The Markham section is solidly Liberal (John McCallum's riding next door is one of the safest in the country) and growing quickly. Temelkovski won by almost 8,000 votes last time despite the swing against the Liberals. There's no way that he's going to lose without a landslide for the Tories. This should be moved back into the Liberal column.
07 09 27 Election Prediction Project
Two submissions below has been edited after Mr. Francesco A. Calandra, lawyer for Conservative candidate Paul Calandra, raised objection to the submissions’ interpretation of the news report from York Region Media Group and threatened legal action against this project. We are not in a position to judge whether the passages in questions are indeed “slanderous material and defamatory statements”. However, as a volunteer-ran project, we have decided to edit those submissions. Instead, in the spirit of full disclosure, the news report regarding the law suits that Mr. Calandra is/was involved in and the questions about his academic credentials can be found in the following link to York Region Media Group.
07 09 16 john w
I agree with other comments and latest local polls or editorials that the Liberals have this riding locked. The Conservative candidate is a long time PC organizer in Ontario but is also a long time loser running many times for City Council in Toronto and lost, he ran twice for MP and lost in Toronto and has currently moved to York Region. [passage edited, see note above]Local press in York Region have run multiple stories on this Conservative embarrassment and this has totally killed their chances in Oak Ridges-Markham. I do disagree with the other writer here that the Liberal 2 time incumbant MP Lui Temelkovski is unknown in York Region. Lui is actually the most visible MP in York Region attending events every week. I used to think that he was a no one knew him, but Lui has worked hard to be a local MP and is very popular everywhere in the riding. No contest here in Oak Ridges-Markham, Lui Temelkovski will keep winning here for the next few years. Conservatives really need to work hard and find a real candidate, not someone from Toronto.
07 08 05 A.S.
This seat ought to be a Tory natural; trouble is, it was created a decade too late for that reality to come to pass. The Markham part, especially, has stubbornly refused to cooperate according to its pre-Y2K Tory pattern. Maybe the best CPC hopes (aside from Lui T.'s Commons-wallpaperness) currently lie--at least symbolically--in OR-M being so dominated by rapid-growth sprawldom, i.e. it's one heck of a litmus for Harper/Flaherty budget goodies...
07 06 28 Bob
There was a chance this riding could have swung to the CPC column in the next election with a new candidate and some extra attention in the Markham area. That chance quickly disappeared when it was revealed in local papers that Calandra, the CPC candidate, is [passage edited, see note above]. The Liberals will definitely make hay with these issues and the Conservatives will have no hope.
07 04 18 Steve L.
the 905 belt. home to so many backbenchers, uninspiring candidates, and yet so many swing ridings. analyzing this region eventually becomes a bit dull. (pre-emptive apology to you 905-ers who take offence to my sweeping generalizations of the region - haha) but i will say that among the ridings that has placed in the too-close column, this one seems to be a bit of a stretch. the Conservatives will probably take half of Mississauga before they take this riding.
07 03 31
This is my home riding and this one should stay liberal, only if the liberal campaign goes well. But the problem with a conservative win is that they can only win if they win in the populated urban regions of Richmond Hill and Markham. These regions always give the Liberals superfluous majorities. Last times awful Liberal National Campaign still returned the Liberal incumbent with over 45% of the vote. This will definitely stay Liberal.
07 03 27 JL
This will be a real test of the Harper teams popularity in the 905. This riding does however have enough rural elements to decide who makes it to Ottawa. The Conservatives have finally nominated a new candidate (I do not remember his name but he was at my door last weekend) he is young spoke very well and brought a team with him. Having said that the battle is Markham do well there and the rest is a bonus. Harper has done enough to push this in to the win column. The Liberal incumbent is virtually unknown so he/she will not have name recognition to help their cause. Look for the Conservatives to win here but by a close margin and only if they run a great campaign

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