Prediction Changed
10:42 PM 20/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Carrie, Colin
Gershuny, David
Godfrey, Sean
Gostlin, Pat
Canadian Action
Kreider, Alex
New Democratic
Shields, Mike
Christian Heritage
Vogel, Peter

Colin Carrie

2006 Result:
Colin Carrie **
Sid Ryan
Louise Parkes
Adam Jobse
David Gershuny

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 12 King of Kensington
I agree with the Conservative call here...Oshawa has a tendency to just fall short for NDPers. But with the NDP polling well, an NDP upset isn't outside the realm of possibility.
08 10 10 ToryTattler
The Liberals definitely have the momentum. They've been campaigning a long time, and in the press regularly. The NDP started almost a week after writ was dropped, and Mike Shields is only well known to union people, whose numbers are dwinding.
Put it this way: If Sid Ryan couldn't do it for the NDP in four tries, with Jack's ‘borrowed’ vote and weaker Grit campaigns, the smart money is definitely not on the NDP in Oshawa now. It's been a long time since they held a seat here, and it'll be a long time still.
08 10 08 BigTruck
This one is definitely up in the air.
Carrie's plan to win this is to lay low and let the NDP and Liberals split the vote. Unfortunately, he had to show up to the debates and do the occasional interview with the local papers. All have been disasters.
Mr. Carrie's toast if progressive voters decide to get behind one of the other candidates. Mike Shield is a stand-up guy who has the CAW backing, and Sean Godfrey has a lot of momentum from excellent performances in the local debates and great rapport with a wide array of community stakeholders.
The sign war is non-existent in this city, so voters have yet to draw their line in the sand.
This one is going to the wire. It may be that two strong opposition candidates split the vote allowing Mr. Carrie to squeak this one out like in 2004.
Overall the sentiment on Carrie in Oshawa is extremely negative.
08 10 07 MH
This seat should have gone Conservative, though not by many votes. The recent decline in support for the CPC in Ontario means that seats like Oshawa are now up in the air. The NDP came within roughly 3,000 votes last time. With the auto industry in trouble and a recession on the doorstep, the Prime Minister's rather complacent view of the economy does not really cut it here. Colin Carrie may survive narrowly, but if even 1,000 people who voted Liberal in 2006 vote NDP this time, he will very likely lose. This one is now definitely TCTC.
08 09 30 Red Tory
I think the sign war is between the NDP and the Tories. However,signs dont vote people do.
Im beginning to believe this election will turn more on the central campaign than the local campaigns. The last four elections in Oshawa the Liberals had strong candidates but were still beaten into 3rd place. A lot of the Liberals believed that strategic voting was the best way to stop the Tory. This strategic voting nonsense was promoted by Buzz Hargrove who confused his members in Oshawa by suggesting they vote Liberal to stop the Tories.
Buzz Hargrove has now retired and his successor Ken Lewenza has come to Oshawa to support Mike Shields. This is very bad news for the Liberal and Tory candidates who rely upon vote splitting to win Oshawa. Colin Carrie has carried Oshawa in th epast two elections with an average of 37.5% of the vote.
With no strategic voting message from the CAW leadership this time around and with Mike Shields a popular Caw 222 past president running for the NDP the perfect scenario has been created.
Sid Ryan re-built the base and stepped aside in true NDP style to allow a strong candidate to push the party over the line.
08 09 28 Jon
I went running today in Oshawa, so went through a good chunk of this riding.
I was surprised at how few lawn signs there actually were for any of the parties! It's a far cry from 2006 where Syd Ryan had the place plastered orange. Even in the area near the GM plant, I saw very few NDP signs, or signs of any kind.
The NDP need an inspired and motivated push, and without it I believe this will be a Conservative hold.
08 09 26 Porter
The vast majority of the recent predictions have been bang-on but this one may be a bit premature. Even the National Post doubts the Conservatives in this riding.
‘The only trouble spot for the Conservatives seems to be Oshawa, the beleaguered auto manufacturing capital, where incumbent Colin Carrie is scrambling against popular New Democrat Mike Shields, who boasts deep Canadian Auto Workers' roots.’
08 09 25 AV
I don't pretend to be an expert on Oshawa, but it seems every election there a bunch of people calling this an NDP win and Conservatives end up winning anyway. The NDP are increasing support in Ontario, but the Conservatives are as well, so that is a wash. It will probably be close as usual, but I see this as a Conservative win.
08 09 25 johnm
This one is going to be tight, but i think Colin Carrie will still squeak it out. Manufacturing has been hit hard in this town and the NDP have a familiar face in Mike Shields and he will give Colin a good run.
I think that the Tories will still prevail though as i notice there are tons of blue signs in the northend of town comparatively.
The waterfront redevelopment is an issue in Oshawa and the recent release of the Crombie report and its recommendations will have voters scrutinizing candidates over their positions. The fact that the Tories are in power may bode well for Colin Carrie on this issue.
08 09 25 bza
Marco, I think you might be onto something here. Sid was really good at pumping up the NDP base to get the party back into a competitive position to take the riding.
I think he couldn't seal the deal because although he pumped up the base, he seemed to polarize a lot of voters somehow as well. He also seemed to be a victim of many whisper campaigns and unfair smears. One of them being that he was linked to the IRA! Which wasn't true in the slightest.
It was bizarre that this riding somehow still went Conservative in the last provincial election. The only thing I can think of is that perhaps Jerry Ouellet actually has some popularity as an MPP. And last time federally, the Conservatives were going to win government, so perhaps many voters wanted to keep Collin Carrie in there to see if he could deliver anything to Oshawa.
Thats why, I think this time, Mike Shields could take it. He is a well known union leader, so he can deliver the base. But perhaps not polarize people as much as Sid Ryan did. With the problems the shwa is facing many voters might turn the New Democrats as a choice that just won't let the free market decide what happens to the city. I don't think this is a write-off just yet.
08 09 22 Red Tory
Its quite astonishing to this site change its prediction with 3 weeks yet to go in the election. The polling trends on shows the NDP as the only party trending up over the past week.
However, before the Tories get all giddy about the change in prediction take a look at the prediction for Sid Ryan in the 2007 provincial election.... the site picked Sid as the winner and we all know that was not an accurate prediction.
Over the last 4 elections in Oshawa, the NDP averaged 35% and the Tories 37%. It defies logic to write off Mike Shields when the campaign really only begins following the leaders debate. Im disappointed that this site would ignore the potency of job losses in Oshawa and Conservative indifference to that crisis.
The real issue in this election is where will the Liberal vote go. There is no evidence that the Conservative vote has increased from the beginning of this campaign , in fact, there is an argument to be made that Harpers Tories have flat lined or ticked down slightly since week one.
08 09 21 expat
I'm puzzled by the site's decision to switch this to a Conservative prediction at this point in the race.
In the midst of economic upheaval in Oshawa (and worldwide), an extremely low-profile Liberal candidate, and some polls showing slightly increased NDP support in Ontario, there is plenty of reason to think that an ineffective incumbent Conservative like Colin Carrie faces a potential loss for re-election.
It remains to be seen if Mike Shields turns out to be the winning candidate for the NDP - but rather than offering Sid Ryan again to narrowly lose, the NDP is presenting a candidate well-suited for the riding and should benefit from an economic and political situation very much in flux. If economic uncertainty and fear from south of the border dominate the news over the next few weeks, I think the NDP will finally retake Oshawa.
08 09 20 Marco Ricci
What will be interesting in this election is to see whether or not Sid Ryan not running for the NDP has an effect. For the last several elections both federally and provincially, the NDP has run him over and over again and each time he came fairly close to winning but never did.
The fact that Sid almost won may mean he was a strong candidate or a weak candidate depending on how you look at it -strong in that he came close, but weak in that he couldn't close the deal.
Last fall in the provincial election, many people swore it would be the time Sid finally would win and yet he lost again and the Conservatives prevailed despite the fact that the PC's were destroyed provincially - that may be a bad sign for the NDP. If the NDP couldn't win last year when the Tories were in chaos provincially, will they ever be able to win here?
Still, it's possible voters here could decide to punish the Conservatives for the economic and manufacturing downturn but they may also decide that they want their riding to remain part of what is likely to be another Conservative government.
08 09 19 Time to Pay the Piper
It seems like every election the NDP predict big things for themselves in Oshawa, yet on election night it's the same old result with the Conservatives winning both at the provincial and federal levels. I believe NDP hopes for Oshawa are still based on the days when Ed Broadbent won easily here in the 1970's. Times have changed and Oshawa has developed demographically into one of the most right wing urban centres in Ontario.
Auto workers who used to hold NDP memberships now support the Conservatives and the outer edge of the city that is still undeveloped has retained it's redneck traditions. I don't believe Conservative Carrie has done much in his time in Ottawa but he's in a riding where people vote the party, not the local candidate. People in Oshawa lean hard to the right and with the Conservatives heading to at least another minority government, it's very unlikely voters will move to the NDP who will limp back to Ottawa as the fourth place party once again.
08 09 17 Red Tory
I think we are on the cusp of a big sea change here in Oshawa. The NDP's Mike Shields has a golden opportunity to capitalise on the recent revitalization of NDP fortunes in Oshawa. Sid Ryan brought the base back from 8/9% to an average of 35% over four elections(two provincial and two federal) Oshawa is the classic 3 way split which enabled all 3 parties to at one time hold Oshawa for several election cycles at a time. Mike Starr for the Conservatives until Ed Broadbent took it in a squeaker and held it for close to 16 years. Ivan Gross held it for 3 elections cycles for the Liberals and now Colin Carrie has held it for two short election cycles for the Tories.
The common denominator has always beeen the relative strength of the 3 parties in the riding. Ryan was up against a strong Liberal candidate in Louise Parkes (long time councillor and deputy mayor)which stole a lot of centre left votes from Ryan thereby allowing Carrie to come up the middle and snatch victory.
This time around the Liberals have a fairly weak and unknown candidate and Carrie has not acquited himself very well with his constituents. He panicked when the auto plants shutdown and the CAW mounted a blockade. He literally refused to visit the CAW picket line when Stephane Dion and Jack Layton could find the time to show their support. He is embroiled in the Ethenol Plant fiasco where the most ecologically sensitive land in southern is threatened Carries support for this Plant. he has failed miserably to clean up Oshawas waterfront.
The stars have lined up for Mike Shields..a native son of Oshawa with stellar credentials. At his nomination meeting it was standing room with the crowd booing Colin Carries name being mentioned. the Tories have lost the auto worker vote. Mike Shields will sweep into office on a wave of popular support from this job ravaged community.
08 09 16 LG grant
Contrary to partisan claims, Colin Carrie is not all that popular in Oshawa. He is perceived at best as ‘an absentee MP.’ Local media have called him out for his no-show support of GM Truck Plant employees, hence their nickname for him; ‘Colin No-Carrie.’ Oshawa's mayor has called Colin Carrie out on his inaction on waterfront redevelopment, despite campaigning in favour of it last election. Rank and file Conservatives have voice displeasure about his performance in this riding (through letters to the editors of local newspapers), labeling him weak, ineffective, and dominated by the Flaherty shadow.
A controversial ethanol plant is being proposed in Oshawa at the waterfront, on disputed federal lands, near a sensitive wetland sanctuary and also near hundreds of residential enclaves. The proponents of this ethanol plant publically boasts about the personal support of Colin Carrie and the financial backing of millions of federal government subsidies. This, without question, will refocus the riding away from the sways of the national campaigns and directly on local issues. All one has to do is examine the backlash Regional politicians received during debates of a proposed incinerator just three miles away from this site. Stakeholders from many sectors of the city (labour, environmental, civic, business, to name a few) are salivating at the chance to confront Colin Carrie directly at public debates. Oshawa residents are quietly adopting of Oshawa-first, Canada-Second mentality. Colin Carrie promised to be a strong voice for Oshawa in Ottawa. To the contrary, there exists a ground-swell of momentum in Oshawa that is suggesting we can do better than him.
My prediction- Carrie drops 7,000 votes from the 2006 election and places third.
08 09 16 Torontonian537
Every party has seats like this - the one they always think they can win, but they always fall short on E-Day. This is Oshawa for the NDP. In every election, both federal and provincial, since 2003, the Dippers have been extemely active on this site, submitting this reason or that why Sid Ryan will finally break through and win this time.
Two interesting things are happening in Oshawa this time. First, Sid Ryan is not running. Mike Shields is probably a stronger candidate than Ryan, due to both his lack of publicly known baggage and also his position with CAW, the biggest union in Oshawa. Second, where are the Dippers posting on Oshawa's page? This time, even more than in other elections, NDP partisans have been hitting every seat they think they can win in large numbers. This trend stretches across the country, from Vancouver-Kingsway to Beaches-East York. So why aren't they posting on Oshawa? Does this mean they've conceded the seat?
In any case, Colin Carrie will win here with an increased margin. He's locally popular, and has two terms and four years as an MP. These factors combined with the strong CPC poll numbers will send him to Ottawa yet again. The Grits will finish a distant third.
08 09 15 E. L. Smerl
This one is too close to call. Normally a riding in as much economic trouble as this one would not dare to be unrepresented in government. But the Conservatives have done absolutely nothing for Ontario's auto sector and their high-dollar Tar-Sands-bubble monetary policy will continue to do great harm to that sector. The CAW is campaigning hard against the Conservatives and wants a Liberal-NDP coalition government so they can play the two left-leaning parties off against each other.
Unions are not a monolithic vote but they do tend to vote for their own within a specific union. Mike Shields will do better than Sid Ryan. But add in a general trend towards the Conservatives and a drop in NDP support in Ontario as a whole partly but not wholly due to the Greens, and it's a TCTC for the moment.
08 09 14 Gone Fishing
My home area London had it's first federal NDP winner last election. Three others did not go NDP last time nor previously. They placed third in all others and distantly.
Auto workers are a significant portion of our electorate. Something like 2 in 7 jobs - Ford Talbotville, Magna plants in St. Thomas and hundreds of unionized parts plants.
Sid Ryan may not have been a CAW candidate but he was a HIGH PROFILE UNION leader who could not cut into this lead in fact gave up ground from the previous election.
The hidden agenda and progressive pleas have not worked when the conservatives were climbing up hill. Let's face it being in government has not been a negative and the riding stays blue.
08 09 14 G. Lobe
Many people don't seem to realize that Oshawa has changed a lot in the past 20 years. It is no longer a majority blue collar town. North Oshawa is your typical 905-belt suburban area. In my neighbourhood every other house has a conservative sign on the front lawn. I have yet to see liberal or NDP signs on the house lawns. Although this could be attributed to the fact that Liberal and NDP candidates (both new) have not fully started their campaign, but this would also hurt their chances. Collin has got a headstart and with his momentum as the incumbent will probably win this one. CPC strong showing in the polls would certainly help him too.
08 09 13 R.D.
Mike Shields is a high-profile CAW organizer and former president of Local 222. He's been at the forefront of issues affecting GM autoworkers for years and will consolidate that support behind him in a way that Sid Ryan could not. Sid was a good candidate, but his background was in the public sector, not an auto plant. Although he got the endorsement of the union leadership, he wasn't always able to count on the rank and file members.
With everything that's been going on in the auto industry, and (until very recently) a total lack of support from the Conservative government, I think Oshawa is ready for a change. Mike Shields will take this back for the NDP.
08 09 13 Stevo
I can't believe the amount of wishful thinking here. Leaving aside the preposterous Liberal predictions, I will address the somewhat more credible NDP predictions by first saying that I believe the NDP will do very well this election. But not here. The blue-collar, working class vote has mostly left the NDP and it isn't coming back, at least not as long as an uppity downtowner like Jack Layton is leader. They will turn out to vote Conservative just as they did in 2004 and 2006 and will assure another victory. Like it or not, Harper has successfully made himself the most average-joe/every-man of the three major party leaders - this kills his chances among the elitists in Rosedale, but works wonders in places like Oshawa.
08 09 12 E. L. Smerl
Sid Ryan not running brings this back into the 2004 territory of a close Liberal-Conservative race. CAW strongly endorsing Liberal minority gov't should tip it for those afraid of industry-targetting measures by NDP and Conservcatives that will necessarily hit the auto industry rather hard.
08 09 11 binriso
Just to clarify, Mike Shields is the NDP candidate, not Sid Ryan, I dont think anyone mentioned his name yet. But anyways Laytons already been here once and hell probably be back a couple more times too. Its clearly winnable if the NDP do even slightly better than last time.
08 09 09 Gone Fishing
Dilusions of grandeur here folks. There is no chance that NDP will win. Sid Ryan has lost this one twice. Being a union member does not make one an automatic leftie. It doesn’t not dictate that one will reject conservatives.
The downturn is harsh for people here but GM is working hard to re-tool and launch more smaller cars etc. and all levels of government are being praised by GM for thier assitance.
Economically scares workers are not going to vote NDP and the libs are not the answer. Conservatives steady hand message will win the day.
08 09 06 John
I have to agree with other NDP supporters here. With big three automakers like GM tightening their belts and closing plants, this is bad news for the Conservatives. Throw in a Green Shift carbon tax, the riding isn't going ot go Liberal either. Big union means NDP.
08 08 27 R.O.
Well the ndp did hold this riding in the early 90?s I do not believe that former mp is running this time or ran at all in recent years so a little confused where that one came from. Actually not sure if the ndp has a nominated candidate here yet. As for the liberals I have a hard time figuring out how the green shift carbon tax plan is going to help the manufacturing industry in places like Oshawa somehow I wonder if it might be a hard sell especially with a new not that well known candidate. Like how does a new tax on carbon encourage people to buy a new vehicle which uses gas so the plan would not be very good for oshawa?s industry. This leaves Colin Carrie mp with the advantage even after all that has gone on here.
08 03 01 Pierre from Québec
This is the former ridding of former NDP leader Ed Broadbent. It was a NDP stronghold during 1968-1993.
With Conservative MP like Collin Carrie, this is for sure a NDP win in the next federal election. If former Oshawa NDP MP Michael Breaugh is candidate again, no chance for Mr. Carrie.
08 07 08 Red Tory
Of course the rub here is that even if Syd was the MP nothing would be different with GM (perhaps they would be worse). However, given that the closure happened during the Tory's watch, they are more to blame than anybody. In addition, Jim Flaherty's arrogance and seemingly ill-concern for the Ontario economy does not help matters much. It could be the NDP's time again.
08 06 12 binriso
Im not actually for sure predicting that the NDP are going to win, but from what Im hearing something like 2500 people are employed here at the GM plant. 2500 people + their families = several thousand possible voters. And of course angry people tend to vote if something happened (even though usually in the end it doesnt matter because in this case its pretty much the corporation that is at fault for putting these people out of work). But that doesnt really clue in to the average voters mind especially angry ones. That means bad news for the Conservatives here. And probably not so great for the Liberals either.
Liberal Provincial Government
Conservative Federal Government
This means you cant pin anything bad on the NDP about whats happened here. Some people will probably associate the Federal and provincial Liberals together, which could drop their vote and itll probably go lower because they really have no chance here and some people will realize that and vote strategically. And of course people tend to blame the government when things go wrong, so the CPC will likely face some anger. And aside from what some people on this site think, this is a close seat and could easily be NDP already. It was only a 2500 vote win last time and still is competitive enough. Their candidate doesnt really even need to be a star, just someone who works hard enough campaigning to win the riding.
Plus there hasnt been an NDP prediction yet which is surprising enough. So its probably a good idea to add a little orange colour here.
08 06 04 Philly D.
GM is closing its plant in Oshawa. I wouldn't imagine this helps the Tories. TCTC
08 05 03
90% sure CPC win here, but the Liberals actually did decently in 2004 only losing by 1000, definitely robbing the NDP of a win. It was possible then too that Grose, the incumbent Liberal would have won the seat had he not been defeated in the nomination (his 2000 win here by about 5500 votes was higher than 1993 or 1997). Now though the CPC should be ok, although I wouldn’t expect them to get too much higher than they have now.
08 04 29 R.O.
Realistically I think its unlikely dion can win seats that avoided the mcguinty liberal sweeps twice and voted for harper last election. Anyways going to try to clear up some confusion on the board. From what I saw neither Sid Ryan nor Louise Parkes is running here again against conservative mp Colin Carrie. The liberals nominated a new candidate Sean Godfrey. Two new candidates Gord Vickers and Bob Goheen are running for the ndp nomination from what I read.
08 04 25 I'm Always Right
The worse things get for Jack Layton and the NDP, the better it gets for Colin Carrie in Oshawa. The Liberals can't manage to escape third place and will end up there again but a lot closer to Sidney Ryan than last time. The votes the Liberals take from Sidney will make the spread even wider for Carrie this spring. That's why I say Carrie wins by 3500 votes.
Ryan will keep running here federally and provincially for years to come and never win Oshawa.
08 04 22 Kjng of Kensington
A Liberal prediction for Oshawa??? They were a distant third last time and I can't see the NDP vote completely collapsing and going to the Liberals, especially given the shape of the Dion Liberals right now.
08 04 21 Stevo
Gee, what a shock, T.V. predicting ANOTHER Liberal win, and this in a riding where the Liberal candidate landed a distant third two elections in a row (not to mention provincial elections, too!). Although not so uncommon in BC, in Ontario it's rare to find a riding where former NDPers are as likely to go Conservative as they are Liberal. I feel Oshawa is one of those rarities. This will especially be the case if the Liberals run the abrasive Louise Parkes for a third time. Recall that in 2006 she attempted to scandalize Colin Carrie because he had the gall to retain a chiropractic practice half a day per week, claiming this clearly egregious and horrible decision was compromising his work as an MP! The result? Parkes was marginalized while Ryan and Carrie duked it out.
08 04 19 T.V.
This seat's a real tossup. Without the profile and energetic campaign of Sid Ryan, the NDP vote should drop significantly. Many Liberal voters likely voted strategically for Ryan as the strongest anti-Conservative candidate. Most of those should return to the fold this time around, making it a fairly normal Liberal-Tory contest with a slightly inflated NDP vote. At this point, with the polls in Ontario looking quite strong for the Liberals, I'd say it's a Liberal seat, despite the Tories' incumbency advantage.
08 04 01 A.S.
For the record, the UOIT campus happens to be in the riding of Whitby-Oshawa--Jim Flaherty's riding. (But hey, it's a sci-tech institution. Probably more inherently Tory-friendly than even the supposedly ?conservative? climes of Queens, Western, et al.)
08 03 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Oshawa a city without a university? When did they close down and/or move the University of Ontario Institute of Technology? Not that it matters, university student turnout is often low and most UOIT students live in nearby ridings and commute. Not a real factor here.
08 03 24 R.O.
Your claiming Oshawa doesn’t have a university ? then what did I see in the north end of Oshawa the last time I was driving thru this city. Does the Durham college and Ontario institute of technology complex not constitute a university in your view. Seriously making such a post indicated a lack of knowledge of this riding as it clearly does have a large post secondary institution. But I do agree that the riding leans conservative and has been a place where they have done well in recent years. But Sid Ryan does have some support here and after all these runs likely becoming more experienced if he does run again. But still Colin Carrie has the advantage as he is the mp.
08 03 22 Curley, Larry and Moe
Getting back to Oshawa, this is a town without a university and as a result is clearly in the Conservative column in each election. It also helps the Conservative cause that Colin Carrie is well thought of in Ottawa and always gets the resources he needs to run a strong campaign. Oshawa stays Conservative.
08 03 15 Stevo
Doug the Slug says: ?It's one of the few urban ridings in Canada that elects a Conservative MP?
I must have missed the memo whereby the settlements of Edmonton, Calgary, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Burlington, Whitby, Ottawa, Quebec City, and St. John's were disbanded and are no longer urban!
No doubt the Conservatives have a problem gaining ground in the ?Big Three? (TO, MTL, Van), but elsewhere they hold their own, at least giving the Liberals are run for their money. The fact that Oshawa is situated right between Jim Flaherty's Whitby and the Tory blue-belt in Eastern Ontario, certainly helps solidify Conservative support here.
08 03 13 Doug The Slug
Oshawa is a very interesting riding. It's one of the few urban ridings in Canada that elects a Conservative MP. If Harper could clone this riding he would. Fact is Oshawa is now ground zero for the Conservatives in urban Ontario. The NDP are not going to be able to crush the Liberals enough to make this a two way race. Carrie will win his riding big time in the next election.
08 02 26 Peg Leg Pete
The only question in Oshawa is whether wild-eyed Syd Ryan is going to line up for another horrible beating in this riding. Oshawa is now Conservative country. I predict Colin Carrie wins by 8,000 votes.
08 02 09 Qick Draw
Once again the King of Kensington doesn't get Oshawa. He claims that the NDP get big support from blue collar ridings. The problem is that auto workers in Oshawa making $80,000 a year may have blue collar jobs but they make too much money and pay too much income tax to ever vote for the NDP.
That takes away the base King of Kensington is counting on in his never ending search for ridings the NDP could win. The truth is that the NDP is only competitive in ridings that are down and out so their filled with angry poor people looking to cast a protest vote. That isn't Oshawa where the CPC will win big again as pathetic Syd takes another terrible beating this spring.
08 01 06 R.O.
Well going to have to say undecided until we see who the other parties are running here. currently its Colin Carrie conservative mp against … ??? liberal candidate and ….??? Ndp candidate. And I’m not even sure who has said they are planning to run for either of these nominations. But I do think current mp has a good chance of holding on to this seat and agree riding has changed and not the same one that elected Ed Broadbent but I’ll wait to see who else is running first as this riding has been close at times.
07 12 23 I'm Always Right
Oulette is a clown and he held on to his provincial seat again sagging Sid this fall. Carrie is actually a very accomplished politician with a strong campaign team. Sorry Sid but Carrie wins big again in Oshawa. I stand by my prediction.
07 12 16 King of Kensington
I think people are missing a key point. It's not so much that autoworkers have all of a sudden decided they don't like the NDP anymore. There's no hard evidence to suggest a shift away from the NDP by union members, the NDP gets tons of support in very blue collar ridings. But Oshawa is also becoming increasingly a GTA bedroom community and it's far out enough and ethnically homogeneous enough to make it competitive for the Tories. Oshawa is in fact very much the kind of place Tory strategists are targeting. And compared to the very patrician John Tory, Stephen Harper is much more of a populist and more appealing in a place like Oshawa.
07 12 13 Colin B
Okay, enough of this silliness. This is not the same Oshawa of 30 years ago, or even 20 years ago. Sid Ryan can keep trying, but it ain't happenin' for him. It may seem logical to say this one is too close to call, but Ouellette has held this riding for the Conservatives provincially through two Liberal majority wins now and Carrie's margin increased fairly significantly last time around. Somehow, Oshawa seems to have taken a liking to the Conservatives, so unless the Conservatives nose dive in the polls, they can count on this one. It will never be a huge win, but a win it will be.
07 12 08 I'm Always Right
I can't wait for January when desperate NDPers fill this site with reasons why Sid Ryan is going to win. Time for the NDP to wake up and realize that this isn't the same Oshawa that sent Ed Broadbent to Parliament Hill in the 70's. Auto workers who use to support Ed became hard line Reformers in the 90's. These guys make a lot of money and pay a lot of taxes. They like the tax cutting ideas of right wing parties and don't want to share the wealth like the NDP do. Sid will make a lot of noise, the NDP will predict a victory and the Conservatives will hold this seat. I'll say by 3500 votes this time.
07 12 03 seasaw
CPC Hold, unless there's a Campbell type meltdown, which isn't very likely. NDP hopes evaporated here when Broadbent left and Rae became premier. In the three consecutive elections that Ivan Grose took for the Liberals, the combined PC/Reform vote was higher than the Libs and as soon as the parties were united this riding went in the win column for CPC. Even with a strong candidate like Syd Ryan NDP couldn't win. Also, the city of Oshawa was voted, by the UN as one of the most liveable cities in the world. That reflects well on Dr. Carrie.
07 11 02 John
Unfortunately, I don't think the NDP has any chance to win this riding. Sid Ryan has already lost 3 elections in this area. The Conservatives are poised to hold Oshawa unless the NDP focus much attention here in the next federal election.
07 10 28 binriso
Well Sid Ryan always does really well here, over 30% each time and within a few hundred votes in 2004. I dont think either of these three attempts he was 'soundly' rejected since the most he lost by was about 2700 votes in 2006. Carrie will probably win here again, but it will definitely be another close race. If the Liberal vote declines here and it polarizes into a 2-way race, that could help the NDP nicely but CPC advantage for now.
07 10 27 Stevo
I wonder if Sid Ryan will seek political office here for the fourth time in 4 years. I suspect his two federal losses and one provincial loss have tired him and he won't bother. Even if he does try for another kick at the can, he will be soundly rejected once more. The Conservatives are simply far too popular in Ontario outside the city of Toronto, and to boot this riding is right nextdoor to Jim Flaherty's. Oshawa is comprised of just the type of ‘Tim Hortons’ voters that Harper targeted last time and will consolidate this time. Sid would be better off running in downtown Toronto where his socialism and left-wing activism would go over well with voters.
07 10 07 andrew knows best
If Sid Ryan wins the provincial election, Carrie's chances diminish considerably. Ryan is the only name New Democrat in the Region of Durham and his absence from the ballot will drop the NDP vote considerably. The candidates rumoured to replace him, Bob Goheen and Gord Vickers, are flaky lightweights who are barely recognized by their own families. The Liberals have two announced candidates but the party wants no part of either of them. Rumour has it that considerable feelers are being put our to three Oshawa Councillors to consider running for the Liberals (Tito-Dante Marimpietri, April Cullen and Brian Nicholson). If they secure any of these, Liberal chances will be improved measurably.
Each has some baggage but are far better than NDP unknowns. Cullen and Marimpietri are second term councillors with Cullen being more of a threat in the northeast and Marimpietri among ethnic voters. Nicholson, currently Oshawa's Deputy Mayor, is the wild card. He is a former NDP federal candidate and a long time City and Regional Councillor. He would be a real threat to NDP chances in the south of the City and as a Liberal, would not be seen as too left wing in the north. He is a love him or hate him politician but his name recognition and political skills would make him a hard candidate to beat.
Carrie has been able to ride in on two split votes. If the NDP collapses after a Ryan win provincially, he could be in trouble if the Tories falter or the Libs pick up NDP vote. It is still his to lose but far too early to call this for anyone.
07 07 17
I think the Conservative pundits on this site are engaged in wishful thinking. Harper is dropping like a stone in the polls and Carrie has not impressed with his lacklustre performance. Autoworkers blaming the Tories for loss of jobs and protesting outside his office.
Trouble for Carrie on the horizon with his ex stalwart worker up on Election violation charges with Election Canada and Sid Ryan suing for a personal damages.
Ryan will be on the ballot in the provincial election..if he wins he will build a powerful machine for NDP to take this seat federally.
If I were a Conservative I would stay tuned.
Jerry Quellette won the riding with 13,400 votes in last election 4 years ago.
Ryan pulled 18,400 votes in his last election 12 months ago.
The Liberals have not won Oshawa provincially in over 40 years.
Advantage to Ryan and look out for the NDP federally.
07 05 02 Prof Ape without Dr Bear
I recently had a job interview in Oshawa and as I may be moving here in the not to distant future, I've been looking into this city a little more. Having lived all my life in the Windsor area, I can say that from what I've seen, Oshawa is no Windsor and is no longer dominated by the auto sector as Windsor continues to be. I saw two faces of Oshawa, the left-leaning auto sector workers (which reminded me of Windsorites) and commuters who have moved to Oshawa (due to relatively cheaper rents/properties) and commute to surrounding communities. These people were more like the residents of other Durham communities (more right-leaning). So to contradict Stevo's argument about auto sector workers, I don't think they are shifting to the right as he claims, but rather the right has shifted into Oshawa from other areas. What does that say about the outcome of the forthcoming election? It says that things are too close to call right now. The earlier post Dr. Bear and I made was when the CPC was riding high and it appeared an election was imminent. Now with CPC at about 30% in the polls this riding is once again vulnerable, provided NDP support does not drop further. Liberal support is static from last election, so they're not much of a threat. The edge goes to Carrie for sure, simply because of incumbancy, but he will have to fight once again.
07 04 28 Stevo
The 2006 election confirmed beyond doubt to any nay-sayers that auto workers no longer default to left-of-centre parties. They are now a middle-class constituency unimpressed with Jack Layton's downtown Toronto champagne socialism, and they are going Tory in droves. If Jack isn't careful, he may find his Windsor base eroding before long in a similar trend. Colin Carrie is a mild-mannered chiropractor (presumably this is the kind of ‘conservative-minded buffoonery’ alluded to by commentator A.S.?) and can easily appeal both to the Conservative base as well as crossover votes from Ed Broadbent/Bill Blaikie type New Democrats in this riding. The Liberal candidate last time was utterly ineffective, and her crass behaviour and her attempt to make an issue of the fact that Carrie spends half a day doing chiropractic work in addition to his work as an MP lost her many votes. If she runs again, coupled with a lower-profile NDP candidate, Carrie can cruise to victory. If either left-wing party nominates a competent candidate that isn't hard-left, Carrie may have to work harder but he'll still win quite handily.
07 04 08 A.S.
As Wayne Marston will tell you, don't underestimate grumpy old union hacks running for the NDP--then again, the main opposition here is not a Grit party on the skids, but a CPC party by all indications still going relatively strong. And if Stephen Colbert's good enough for this town, so is any conservative-minded buffoonery out there. Still, as it stands, Oshawa might as well be a litmus for Jack Layton's hitherto-suppressed strategy for cutting to the chase and tearing electoral chunks out of Stephen Harper's own hide--you can't rely on lent Liberal votes forever.
07 04 05 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Not this time! CPC have it. New candidates for liberals and NDP, up against the incumbent conservative...we don't think so. Maybe if the CPC was not doing so well in the 905. Things could change, but not as of now.
07 04 03 905 Pundit
With 2 new candidates this time around Carrie will be hard to beat.
A popular constituency MP with a high local profile, the Liberals and NDP will run complete unknowns this time. Louise Parkes and Sid Ryan have bowed out.
That leaves 2 unknowns going for the Liberal nomination. Parkes has convinced her girlfriend downtown screamer Laurie Vaillancourt to take the fall for the Liberals while Louise bides her time to run for the mayor`s job in 2010. Courtice resident Dennis Urbansky will also run for the nomination.
The NDP will nominate either failed municipal candidate and bus driver retiree Gord Vickers or teacher Bob Goheen. Both are grumpy old union hacks and are little rough around the edges.
Neither the Liberals or NDP have the talent organization or money to dent Conservative fortunes there.
07 04 03 Calev
I think the big thing here....and in many NDP ridings or where they came in a close second is the surge of the green party. In the last election many of the seats the NDP won where by small margins and with the surge of the green party I can see the NDP losing many seats in Canada especially in the 905 and in BC. Conservative hold because of Green party surge.
07 04 03
I wouldn't agree that this riding is too close to call. If you'd done your homework you'd conclude that Oshawa is most likely a lock for the Tories barring any disasters. They consolidated and expanded their vote in 2006 cracking 38% in this previously very marginal riding. If Carrie's fortunes continue and the Tories hold up well in another tough campaign, Oshawa will be returning a Tory to Ottawa with well over 45% support. With the interminable loser Sid Ryan not running again, both the Liberals and NDP will be in tough to dislodge the Tory. Next election is Carrie's to lose.
07 03 22 905er
As usual to close to call. The Liberals haven't found a candidate which makes the NDP dangerous here. Colin Carrie can't seem to muster more than about 35% of the vote so if the NDP can consolidate support on the basis of the Liberals focusing elsewhere it could get very interesting.

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