Prediction Changed
5:01 PM 27/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Galipeau, Royal
Godbout, Marc
Maillet, Paul
New Democratic
O'Dell, Amy

Royal Galipeau

2006 Result:
Royal Galipeau
Marc Godbout **
Mark Andrew Leahy
Sarah Samplonius
Alain Saint-Yves

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 13 bla
Indeed, the Liberals have been endorsed by PSAC (Public Service Alliance of Canada)....but so have The Bloc. This goes to show how little faith you can put in union endorsments. Also, according to a local Orleans paper, a recent poll by COMPASS shows Royal Galipeau with a solid 12 percentage point lead over Marc Godbout (48 to 36). It was 41 to 39 the last election against Godbout.
08 10 12 DSJ
Ottawa-Orleans is a true swing riding. We go the way the government falls. If Harper can hold his number of seats nationally then this should stay Conservative however; I've seen Godbout run a much more competitive campaign than he has in years past...
08 10 10 Joshua Zuckerman
Liberal candidate Marc Godbout was endorsed by PSAC (Public Service Alliance of Canada) today so this is a point in his favour, but we'll have to see if it is enough to help him take the riding.
08 10 08 Joshua Zuckerman
On Don Newman's Politics show yesterday, Sean Conway gave the Liberals a slight edge in winning this riding.
08 10 05 bob
This site has definitely pronounced too early on this riding. Adscam did the Libs in last time and Galipeau benefitted, but this is not a man loved by his constutuents. Godbout has as much name recognition, but the main thing here is that the large francophone population here who mostly work for the federal government are leery of a conservative majority. That factor, combined with Galipeau's ill-advised decision to not support moving federal jobs to Ottawa orleans will likely shift this into the Liberal column.
08 10 04 Marco Ricci
What is ironic for Liberal Marc Godbout is that one of the things he wanted to happen has occurred - he has a much weaker NDP candidate than in 2006 who is less likely to take away as many votes as happened last time. However, because the Liberal vote is lower in Ontario than it was in 2006, Godbout may not be able to win this seat even though he may attract more NDP votes than last time as he may end up losing Liberal votes to the Conservatives.
08 10 03 Rebel
A Compas poll taken for the Ottawa Citizen and released on October 3 suggests that the Conservatives are leading by 12% in the riding...mostly on the back of very strong support from the anglo majority while the Liberal candidate Marc Godbout edges out Royal Galipeau amongst francophone voters.
08 10 03 Nick Tang
It's a small poll sample, but it shows Galipeau in the lead (48%) vs Godbout at 36%.
08 09 28 J L'Hirondelle
It was a squeaker in the last election between the Tories and the Liberals with NDP trailing. This time the Tories are stronger nationally, and the Liberals even weaker. The NDP will increase their percentage but still come behind the liberals, leaving the tories with a 4% to 5% margin over the liberals - compared to a 1% margin last go-round.
08 09 27 Thomas Bell
The Conservative candidate has called us once, the canvassors have dropped off campaign literature at the home, while two mailouts (one general, one targeted to the family) has been done. I have yet to see any campaign material from the Liberals, NDP or Green Party. This will be a very close race but I'll give it to the Conservative incumbent, who's showing effort to getting the vote out.
08 09 25 gl
Changing my prediction from narrow Lib gain to Con hold. This is kinda of a bellwether riding and I heard that Godbout's campaign is very disorganized.
Narrow Tory hold, sadly.
08 09 24 The Insider
I'm sorry. First the seat when Red in 1988 not, 1993. It went Red then when Mulroney was threatening to move 10,000 federal public servants out of Ottawa.
Anyhow, the Tory's will win. Godbout running a shit campaign. No volunteers, hardly any signs and the NDP are at 22% in Eastern Ontario.
Thankfully the Liberal Party will be rid of Godbout once and for all and we can get down to electing a real Liberal.
08 09 21 Bernard Manning
Sorry. Yet another Liberal 1993 triumph with a 30,000+ winning margin that slowly eked away to the CPC. Lots of changes in the riding in those 15 years. The old Ottawa East transformed itself into the burgeoning suburb of Orleans. A 'cheaper' side of town to get a first rung on the housing ladder or simply more bang for your buck. Half-built sub-divisions, new schools, rec centres, all over the place. The nouveau riche of such areas are now fertile CPC territory. The article you refer to just highlights the Liberal faction fighting between old/new Bellemare/Godbout that gifts these type of ridings to the Torys.
08 09 20 Marco Ricci
Here is a write-up of this riding that someone has done which mentions some of what has been discussed on this page - that this riding is expected to be a close race and that Godbout has brought on board the NDP and Green candidates from the last election.
It is impressive that Godbout has been able to gain the support of two of his rivals from the last election as candidates aren't normally able to do this, but whether Godbout can win may depend on the strength of the Liberals' national numbers.
08 09 18 malcolm y
ndp have nominated Amy O'Dell but she wont take 9000 votes like last time
Godbout will just squeak it
08 09 18 Raw Clarke
Good question about the NDP. They do not appear to have a candidate yet and have zero signage. I think that it is premature, however, to suggest that the Liberals will capture most of the NDP vote. I am sure the NDP will find a candidate by election time and their die hard supporters will vote for that person no matter who it is. The X Factor is the Greens. They are running with a much stronger candidate this election. He could capture a large chuck of the previous 9000 NDP votes (plus some from the Liberal). This split on the Left should lead to Galipeau's re-election.
08 09 17 bla
This is a riding where nobody really cares that much about the candidates (at least in recent history). How many votes a candidate receives will simply depend on how well the party does at election time. Here is an example... Godbout succeeded in beating the Conservative candidate Walter Robinson in the 2004 election, by a slim majority - and the liberals got a minority. Galipeau succeeded in beating the Liberal candidate Godbout in the 2006 election, by a slim majority - and the Conservatives got a minority. This time around the polls are favouring the Conservatives even more that the 2006 election. This riding is in the bag for the Conservatives unless the polls change direction.
08 09 17 Marco Ricci
The poster below is right - the main thing that did Godbout in last time was that there was a large increase in NDP support here. This time the NDP candidate from 2006 is apparently not running and has apparently actually joined the Godbout campaign. The NDP appear to be the only party with no signs up so far - the Cons, Libs and Greens all are visible, but not the NDP.
The absence of a strong NDP candidate this year could help Godbout squeak back in but he will need the national Liberal numbers to remain in decent shape.
08 09 17 malcolm y
reckon Godbout will squeak it. Galipeau cannot rely on NDP to take 9000 votes. are the NDP even running here?
08 09 07 Marco Ricci
Live in the riding. As people know, this is a former Liberal riding that the Conservatives won by a small margin last time. Former Liberal MP Marc Godbout is running again and he feels he has a chance to win if he can win back some of the NDP vote that he lost last time.
The Conservative vote here did not really go up last time - what happened was that more people than usual voted NDP and this hurt the Liberals. Marc Godbout can win back the riding if some of the people who voted NDP last time return to the Liberals - that may be the main factor that determines the outcome here next month. At this point it is too soon to know and so this riding belongs in the undecided column.
08 09 03 gl
I think the Libs will narrowly - very narrowly - squeak it out here with the Francophone vote in the end. But IIRC there's a growing number of Tory-leaning Anglophones there too.
08 05 08 R.O.
This is an interesting riding and will be a race for sure come the next election. but the reality is the conservatives put a lot of effort into winning Ottawa Orleans last election. And Royal Galipeau is a well known candidate and has even been deputy speaker for the last couple of year. Well the liberals plan to run Marc Godbout again I do not feel his candidacy alone is enough to return this seat to the liberals. He was mp for a couple of years but not really very long.
08 04 27 Bob
This will swing back to the Liberals. I know many francophones in the riding and they view Galipeau as an eccentric embarrassment who ran for every office including town dog catcher before finally winning his dream job. I personally like the guy, but when you come out against moving government offices to Orleans in a suburb like Orleans where people spend hours in traffic everyday just to get to work, you can't expect to be re-elected.
08 02 23 rebel
There is no point in comparing provincial with federal results. The provincial election also coincided with an historically typical incumbant-advantage and very poor turnout that gave McNeeley a very strong victory.
Recent polls show a swing to the federal Conservatives in Ontario (though that can change with every week).
The riding demographics and incumbent advantage favour the Conservatives. With Afghanistan taking an important profile, the large number of military personel in the riding will also help the Conservatives. A preliminary guess would give the Conservatives a doubled majority to about 3,500 votes...
07 12 07 Ogryx
I think this riding will go back to the liberals, especially after reviewing the results of the provincial election, with incumbent Phil McNeely gaining over 50% of the vote. Last time around I think the liberals thought this riding would be a shoe-in and they will work at it harder this time. Royal Galipeau hasn't been an important MP and the fact that it's clearly known that he was a liberal for so long will play against him the next time around.
07 12 03 R.O.
Willing to say Conservative hold in Ottawa Orleans , why do I predict so ? well even though this area was liberal before so were a lot of ridings in this area. But realistically with current polls this would be an unlikely pick up for liberals. Last election Royal Galipeau pulled off a surprise victory here over liberal mp Marc Godbout. But now Galipeau has been mp for almost 2 years, well guess similar situation to what Godbout found himself in last election as he wasn’t expected to beat Walter Robinson. Anyways that is my prediction for time being.
07 06 14 A.S.
What Hamilton East-Stoney Creek was to the left, Ottawa-Orleans was to the right: after a high-profile bid by Canadian Taxpayers Federation bigwig Walter Robinson fell short in '04, CPC made a much more token effort in '06--and won anyway! (And only gaining 3/4 of a percentage point from last time, too.) Naturally, given history, it's a topmost Liberal takeback target. Unfortunately, it's also akin to those surprise-Adequiste seats on Montreal's suburban fringe, so that could be easier said than done...
07 04 02 M. Lunn
This was traditionally a safe Liberal seat, but like some other Eastern Ontario ridings, this has increasingly become competitive at both the provincial level and federal level. Also many civil servants have moved elsewhere in Ottawa so the loss of them has hurt the Liberals here and the increased gain amongst Francophones has also helped the Tories. Like last time, should be really close either way. One of the few Eastern Ontario ridings though the Liberals do have a decent shot at regaining.
07 04 02 free_thinker
Last time a conservative won re-election in this riding was like 1882. I think it is to close to call with Galipeau having the upper hand.

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