Prediction Changed
3:32 PM 29/03/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Ottawa-Vanier
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Liberal
Bélanger, Mauril
Conservative
Glémaud, Patrick
New Democratic
Haché, Trevor
Marxist-Leninist
Legeais, Christian
Green
Manoussi, Akbar
Canadian Action
St-Onge, Michel
Independent
Taylor-Larter, Robert

Incumbent:
Hon. Mauril Blanger

2006 Result:
Mauril Blanger **
23567
Paul Benoit
15970
Ric Dagenais
12145
Raphal Thierrin
3675
James C. Parsons
221
Alexandre Legeais
117

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 10 02 Xyzzy
64.230.21.189
Hard to say. I just moved to Gloucester and I see lots of Tory signs around Meadowbrook. I don't spend much time here though because I'm usually at Carleton, and I've not really been to Vanier because I have no real reason to go, but I know it's an area that gave 60% to the Ontario Liberals when Rae formed a majority NDP government. I suspect it'll go Liberal, but I'm not that confident yet given the ineptitude of the leader and of the campaign.
08 10 01 John
72.136.134.254
There is no way the Conservatives will ever win this riding.
With the huge student vote in this riding, the liberals will continue to win this riding, unless the NDP or Green party somehow get a high profile candidate, I think they'd be able to pull an upset.
08 09 16 Steve
99.254.7.199
With a solid Francophone, who is a new Canadian, this riding could definitely go Conservative this time around.
Patrick Glemaud is winning votes amongst the immigrant communities and the Franco communities in Vanier, his tough on crime stances are winning him votes in Lowertown, and the typical Conservative areas like Beacon Hill and Gloucester are still as strong as ever.
Patrick will surprise a lot of people this election, and will end the 70+ years of Liberal domination
08 09 14 Overseas Canadian who can't vote
203.112.56.84
The Liberals may have taken 51% provincially, but federally it is a different game. At 42% last time, and likely down about 10% this time it is too close to call. Although in the past this district has been solidly Liberal, Franco-Ontario is no longer the automatic it was in the 1970's and 80's, especially with the Conservatives winning in both Glengarry and Orleans last time
08 09 05 Goats
209.47.202.162
O-V was a resounding victory for the Liberals in the last provincial election - close to 51% of the popular vote. This is easily the safest Liberal riding in the National Capital Region. Even though Belanger's numbers were down in the last election, un jaune chien franco-ontarien could win a landslide here.
08 03 30 Stevo
76.64.64.5
This is HARDLY the Mount Royal of Ontario, Brian. Just look at the results from the 2006 election. Yes the Liberals will win here again, but they better watch their back. In the following election cycle, assuming the Tories maintain their Eastern Ontario dominance for the next few years at least, Ottawa-Vanier will be within their sights, especially if Mauril Belanger decides he's had enough of politics and retires. Flush with money, and with safe MPs all around it, Conservative will be able to direct fund and volunteers here and make a serious play for it.
08 03 08
24.81.18.126
The LPC definitely has the upper hand here - a long time MP in a riding that has been consistently Liberal since its creation. You might think that this riding would have been a landslide territory for the LPC. In 2006, however, the CPC narrowed that gap significantly. With a strong candidate in Patrick Glemaud, I wouldn't call this a Liberal riding yet.
07 10 24 OVGreen
99.240.168.15
This is solidly Liberal, the federal seat has never been won by the Conservatives, even though the results are closer every election, the gap is still too large to even make it tossup, even less Conservative or NDP.
If provincial results are ANY indication, the PC vote in 2007 was actually lower than its 2003 result! (But I doubt it would indicate support at a federal level)
07 04 09 A.S.
74.99.222.209
Any Tory prediction that makes reference to a ‘strong campus club’ ought to be taken with a grain of salt (cf. past predictions for Kingston, etc). Still, Ottawa-Vanier's been actually looking less electorally dull lately, due to the quiet slow leakage of once-ensured Liberal support; the 42% Mauril Belanger got last time must verge on some kind of historical low (and, weirdly, it was lower than what David McGuinty got in Ottawa South). Whatever Grit ultra-safety Belanger retains now owes more to O-V's electoral schizophrenia; while Rockliffe Park and Rothwell Heights might go with a suburban-Ottawa-Tory flow, Lower Town and Sandy Hill are more like overspill from NDP (and Green) Ottawa Centre, and the two forces cancel each other out. For CPC to really polevault across the finish line, the urban Franco-Ontarian (and Liberal) heartland of Vanier practically has to go Adequiste on us...
07 04 08 Brian Appel
70.48.240.240
This riding is kind of like the Mount Royal of Ontario for the Liberal Party. If they lose every seat in the province, they'll still hold Ottawa-Vanier by a decent margin. Definite Grit hold here.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
Unlike most Eastern Ontario ridings, this is a very safe Liberal riding, more like your typical Toronto one than Ottawa one. The interesting will be to see if the Tories win in Rockcliffe Park, which they did in 2006 and Gloucester where they came close. However Ottawa and Vanier sections will go massively Liberal ensuring they win this one.
07 04 02 free_thinker
137.122.73.209
This, along with Ottawa-Centre is very much in play for the Conservatives. IN this riding, the candidate is a bilingual, black doctor. This is something that sheds the image of Conservative being crazy and neo-conservative. Furthermore, the riding has a very solid ground team stemming from the strong campus club at uOttawa and the municipal campaign with Larry O'Brien and Bruce McConville. If national numbers continue to rise for the Conservatives and the team runs a strong local campaign, this seat could go blue. For the time being this should be TCTC with a slight edge to the incumbent Mr. Belanger.
07 03 30 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
74.12.178.56
It's going to be a dull, dull race here. The Liberals will come out on top due to the afore-mentioned franco-ontarian and civil servant vote. The more interesting question is how much of a gain or loss will the CPC have compared to last election.
07 03 24 RF
74.120.155.163
With the high franco-Ontario vote, and the strong civil service presence, this may be the only seat in Ottawa that the Liberals take. My, how things change.



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