Prediction Changed
3:46 PM 07/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Kildonan-St. Paul
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Bowkett, Kevan
New Democratic
Eadie, Ross
Hiebert, Eduard
Hughes, Lesley
Christian Heritage
Loewen, Jordan
Smith, Joy

Joy Smith

2006 Result:
Joy Smith **
Terry Duguid
Evelyn Myskiw
Colleen Zobel
Eduard Hiebert

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 11 dls
I don't get all the NDP predictions here... they have WAY too much ground to make up to be competitive here... expect a rather comfortable Conservative win, but ill throw the Dippers a bone. Yes the NDP will finish a relatively distant second (5,000 votes or so).
08 10 10 Realistic observer
There are few NDP signs up. I thought they were writing off the riding. Of the NDP candidate nothing has been seen. The Liberals are out But Hughes will still get some votes. The NDP will pick some up but not enough to knock out Smith. The Green vote will probably go up due to the lack of a Liberal candidate. The riding will go Conservative.
08 10 08 Andrew
I'm forseeing this riding to be a close one but i think the New Democrats will come on top in this one, the Liberals in Kildonan-St.Paul don't vote Tory, and they'll jump ship to the NDP and Ross Eadie. Lesley Hughes will get some votes but maybe at the most 4,000...Free Press polls are incredibly inaccurate, political prof i was talking to was saying the margin of error is massive. The Free press poll is hard to believe.
08 10 06 ajm79
Look at the polls. Smith has a 2-1 lead and this riding has turned way too conservative in the last five years to elect anyone else.
08 10 04 Liberal swayed
With Senator Carstairs, Manitoba's Liberal campaign chair, telling folks to vote for the candidate who has the best chance of defeating Harper can only mean to vote NDP in this election. While Lesley Hughes' name will still be on the ballot as a liberal, I think there has been enough media attention to let educated voters know that they are not voting for a Liberal any longer. The combined NDP/Liberal votes and a decline in the CPC support, especially those who don't like Smith personally, will be enough to turn this riding NDP.
08 10 02 BJ
The comment below that the NDP represent the riding provincially is incorrect. Ron Schuler and Bonnie Mitchelson represent provincially (for the PC's) the north eastern third of the riding. I also think Lesley Hughes will still get many votes, as she was on the radio today saying she still would like to represent the area as an independent. Consequently, I don't think the NDP will get enough of the Liberal votes to come through the middle. Conservative hold.
08 10 01 R.O.
Its silly to suggest that since the liberal was forced out that the 3rd place ndp would now take this riding. Especially when considering Joy Smiths personal popularity and strength as the incumbent. There was also a similar incident in Winnipeg to what happened to Lesley Hughes a few elections back. In 2000 a then alliance candidate got removed in Winnipeg south centre over inapproiate asian comments and the riding was held by the liberals and stayed that way even after her dismissal. The other parties pc and ndp at the time did not make enough gains to over take party leading in the polls which was liberal at that time. So considering that example with conservatives doing good in Manitoba expect Joy Smith to hold this seat.
08 09 29 Kit A
While it is true there will be some floating Liberal votes to be had due to Ms. Hughes departure from the race, her name will still be on the ballot. Watch for her to receive a number of sympathy votes. It is highly doubtful that the NDP can pick up enough to take this now that the Liberals are out of the race.
08 09 29 ex- Winnipegger
Without the liberals it's completely conceivable that the NDP could win this one. I don't think that Joy Smith can go much higher than 17-18,000 votes, and a consolidated opposition might be her undoing.
08 09 27 III
With the Liberals firing their candidate their odds went from slim to none.
08 09 26 daniel
One other thing: All the provincial ridings in the federal riding are represented by the NDP. Many of these voters break liberal federally. With the liberals out of the game a huge number of those people who voted Liberal last time will migrate back to the NDP. It'll be close, but the NDP should have a very good chance at taking this riding.
08 09 26 RLB
The Liberal Party Candidate resigned today over comments she made as a columnist, regarding 9/11 (She stated Israeli intelligence knew of the attack in advance, warned American Government agencies, and caused Isreali business to not open for business that day). If there was any doubt this riding was going Tory, it has been erased.
08 09 26 daniel
With the liberal candidate out in this one, there might be a slight opening for Eadie to manage an upset. Much of this riding is not natural conservative territory, and Joy Smith will not get more than 40% of the vote.
It's funny, the conservatives clamoured for Dion to fire Hughes, he did, and now they might have trouble holding the seat.
08 09 26
With Hughes out, will Liberal voters move NDP so that this will now be an NDP pickup?
08 09 26 Will
Word is out on the major newspapers that Liberal candidate Leslie Hughes has finally been dropped by Dion after her 9/11 conspiracy theories have been jumped on by the other parties - especially her assertion that the Israelis knew about the attack and vacated the twin towers prior to the tragedy. I don't think the NDP will pick up a large majority of the grit vote, so this riding has become no contest for the CPC.
08 09 26 Rebel
The dismissal of Leslie Hughes will create an even larger floating pool of voters than previously existed with the retirement of Bill Blaikie. The Liberals ran a poor third last time and I understand that Hughes' name will remain on the ballot and may attract a couple of thousand votes. The issue will be whether the remainder will bolt en masse to another party or splinter amongst them. I do not thing it is automatic that they will just all float to the NDP and until that becomes clear, the riding should be too close to call.
08 09 26 JKY
Now that Hughes has been dropped as Liberal Candidate (though her name remains on the ballot, I guess this wraps it up for the Cons here, not that it wasn't already. Any guesses on how the Lib vote will split?
08 09 26 expat
This may have just gotten interesting... with the Liberals ditching Lesley Hughes (although she will still be on the ballot), there is now an outside chance of an NDP victory if they can unite the entire NDP/Liberal vote in the riding. (Similar to the scenario in Saanich-Gulf in BC, where the Liberals may benefit from the withdrawal of the NDP candidate.)
I suspect that the incumbent Conservative MP Joy Smith will be re-elected, but what should have been an easy romp for her now shapes up to a real race that she conceivably could lose. Still, Smith has to be considered the favourite.
08 09 24 Matt
Joy Smith keeps doing better from election to election. A recent poll I read about had her up by 30 points. And if you drive around the riding, you see a lot of Joy Smith signs even in the poorer parts of the riding.
08 09 22 Greg P
This one will be very close. The NDP have way more signs up numerically, however most houses that have one sign have 2-3 signs, which distorts the numbers a bit. If the Conservatives get into majority territory, this one will probably tilt that way. If it's a minority government, this one goes NDP. The other factor is to see if there is a push for strategic voting as we get closer to Eday - Layton can't use his ‘lend me your vote’ line again, so we'll see if he can spin the same tune another way.
08 09 08 MLB
I am not a particularly big fan of Joy Smith or the conservatives but Ms. Smith was able to ride the coat tails of Stephen Harper last time and the shift in riding demographics, and a bouyant local economy seems to favour another conservative victory
08 02 11 A.S.
If the Liberals show some kind of BC-esque contrarian upswing (and CPC a counter-contrarian downswing) in Manitoba, this'd be one to watch, especially as Joy Smith's conservatism seems anachronistic for a seat within Winnipeg city limits--and remember that she barely won in 2004. But if it's a status-quo kind of election, she's likely to stay, albeit a bit in spite of herself.
07 04 04 Nick J Boragina
The tories did very well in Manitoba last time, and although the polls show they might not win this next election with ease, or even at all, they do show a consistent strong trend towards the conservatives in Manitoba and the west as a whole. Last election this one might have been somewhat close, this election it will be even less so. Smith will go back to the commons.

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