Prediction Changed
6:05 PM 11/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Barsky, Rick
Block, Kelly
Bluehorn, Roy
Christian Heritage
Bourassa, Marcel Leon
Jones, Amber
Stricker, Kevin
New Democratic
Wiebe, Nettie

Hon. Carol Skelton

2006 Result:
Carol Skelton **
Nettie Wiebe
Myron Luczka
Rick Barsky
Marcel Bourassa

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 12 Waldheim supporter
I am surprised that this has moved from to close to call to being predicted as an NDP seat. I know that Nettie Wiebe has been around for a long time. The reality is that she did not win in 2004 or 2006. Kelly Block is new to federal politics but she is not new to politics. In fact, she has been involved for years both at the provincial level working behind the scenes and at the local level as Mayor of a prospering rural community. She has also served on the Saskatoon District Health board where she gained the support of a very popular NDP candidate, Carol Teichroeb in her local nomination bid. She IS experienced and she DOES have political know how. She IS what is needed in Saskatoon, Biggar, Rosetown.
08 10 11 The god father
Someone said their is No liberal signs. Yeah got one on my fence so does my neighbour. Also just go down 20th street there are signs..
08 10 11 dls
I know Election Prediction has gotten burned before by overly optimistic NDP supporters in Saskatchewan. However, there was an Angus Reid poll conducted on Oct. 8-9 that has the Conservative support at 40% province wide, and the NDP at 35%. If those numbers are correct than this would be the first riding to go NDP, so to speak.
08 10 10 B McKee
I'm going to say this is likely to go for Wiebe based on an Angus-Reid poll of Saskatchewan voters released today. While the poll didn't get down to a constituency level, it did indicate growing NDP support, particularly among younger voters (the 18-34 age group) and women. I think this will mainly have an impact in close constituencies, like Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar. Kelly Block's decision not to participate in candidate forums within the constituencies isn't exactly helping her either.
08 10 08
I have literal not seen one liberal sign on private property in this election. It is amazing. Not one. The green party seems to have more support. This will help push the ndp over the top.
08 10 08 The god father
Where is the liberal vote going in this election there is 3536 votes that
Myron Luczka had in the last election. Also there is a lot voter that may come out in this election so these is a 3 way race I am guessing.
08 10 06 R.O.
Think this one might be close or at least as close as last election but I still feel the conservatives have the advantage here as they have held this riding for a number of years. Saskatchewan is also a province where they poll very strong. Well Kelly Block might not be as high profile as Skelton she still is an ok candidate in the sense. A lot could depend on turnout in this riding as it seems low last time. But I still say the conservatives have the advantage here over the ndp in this riding. I could see the ndp winning polls in Saskatoon part but I doubt riding will come there way.
08 10 06 Billy
This seat could be an interesting and close result this time around. A very poor PC candidate running after a retiring Cabinet Minister ( Carole Skelton)- I'm not surprised if you haven't ever heard of her. The NDP rep is likely the best of the bunch in Sask. and certainly deserves this win, but when you get out of the cities in Sask. the ‘Redneck Right’ vote maybe too polarized for Mrs. Weibe to pick it up. PC Kelly Block has been getting lots of bad press as of late for refusing to debate or take part in any forums that would show her inexperience and lack of knowledge about the issues. It could cost them.
08 10 04 Burt
This is Nettie Wiebe's year. She's come close before, but Layton has become a whole lot more appealing to regions outside of Toronto this time around (he evidently learned something), which will put her over the top.
08 10 04 A
With no incumbency advantage for the Conservative candidate, Nettie Wiebe will take this riding for the NDP. Remember: ever since the NDP lost this seat to Carol Skelton, it's always been a close second place finish for the NDP. Wiebe will push into first place this time.
08 09 29 binriso
The Christian Heritage party is also running the same candidate.
Anyways i think this will be a razor thin win for the NDP, by 500 votes or so and their only gain in the province.
08 09 27 B McKee
Nettie Wiebe isn't the only returning candidate from last time. Rick Barsky, who ran for the Greens last around, is running as an independent. I frankly doubt that he'll get many votes but any votes he does get will most likely be drawn from the Left rather than the Right.
08 09 25 bam
Given that the incumbent is not running and wiebe finished second last time and is the only returning candidate i see this as the only ndp pick up in saskatchewan
08 09 13 SJ
Liberal support may be softening, but NDP support is the lowest it has been in decades. Conservative candidate Kelly Block doesn't have the incumbency advantage, nor the name recognition of Nettie Wiebe, but Wiebe's name recognition may not help her, since it ties her closely to the old-school provincial NDP who got taken out in the last election. What is more, the rural portion of the riding has little sympathy for the new federal NDP, which under Jack Layton is really a very urban-left party. It's hard to see how Nettie Wiebe fits in to a party that hasn't had a meaningful agricultural policy in two elections. Tory hold, but it will be closer than last time.
08 09 13 Giant Political Mouse
I think there is a pretty good chance the CPC will hold this seat even without their incumbent. Although if anyone can do it, it would be Wiebe. I know she has a good local team that are working very hard. What this will come down to is if this was really a Seklton seat (like lots of people seem to believe) or if it was an actual CPC seat. I am afraid there is just to much rural and not enough urban for the NDP to pull a win here. I hope I am wrong as Nettie would make a great MP.
08 09 13 John
I think the NDP supporters have a point here.
New Conservative name so no incumbancy advantage. Softening Liberal support, and Dion having a hard sell with the Green Shift in rural Canada, so some of that Liberal support could go to the NDP.
It was close last time, so it could push the NDP over the top.
08 09 12 B McKee
While I am an NDP supporter I'm not entirely convinced that this riding will switch. The New Democrats have a strong urban base in the Saskatoon part of the riding, but consistently this seems to be offset by the rural portion of the riding, which stretches halfway to the Alberta border. All in the name of ‘healing’ the Rural-Urban split.
08 09 10
I live in this riding. Carol Skelton was very well respected and hard working. People voted for HER not the Conservatives. With her gone this riding will likely go back to the NDP.
08 09 09 Adrena Lynn
Now that Carol Skelton has decided to retire, this riding could become NDP again if the Liberal vote collapses.
08 08 23 Pierre from Québec
It is not realistic to think that the NDP will not win any seat again in Sask. for the third consecutive election. I am sure they will pick up some seats in this province, with so a long NDP tradition and former stronghold for the Dippers, and Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar is one of the them.
08 08 17 R.O.
Well a few things a have taken place here since many of the comments here were sent in. those being Saskatchewan elected a new provincial government last fall and ended years of ndp rule and conservatives found a new candidate to replace mp Carol Skelton here. Kelly Block won the conservative nomination over Shane Parker. That being said this is one of the weaker cpc ridings in Saskatchewan and one with a lot of ndp history. But fact the conservatives do so good out west and economy doing good out there I would be surprised if this one did not stay conservative. The ndp really needed to win or at least come second in the Churchill river by-election to show they were still a force here but they did not. Although it will still be a close race here whenever the election does take place. Liberals not much of a factor here and carbon tax plan not likely to increase there fortunes here.
08 02 26
Still too close to call, but two events since last I posted work to the NDP's advantage.
- Carol Skelton isn't running again. No incumbency advantage for the Conservatives and, depending who they nominate, the name recognition advantage is likely to be to Nettie.
- The provincial NDP government was defeated. Historically, the NDP do better federally in Saskatchewan when they are out of power provincially.
Finally, Daniel's comparison between Jack Layton and Tommy Douglas is a load of tripe. Tommy led the NDP through four federal elections. In the first three, the NDP were shut out in Saskatchewan. So far, Layton hasn't yet matched Tommy's failure rate.
08 02 14 A.S.
2006's top Sask NDP prospect is even further on top now as an open seat and w/Nettie Wiebe reoffering--but boy, is it polarized; the provincial-leadership heart of NDP Saskatoon, plus joints like Rosetown and Biggar which vote defiantly like they have no business whatsoever belonging to an NDP riding. And it's hard to say how much the Dippers' resilience is more like residual momentum from the Chris Axworthy years; like Wiebe (who, unlike Axworthy, is on the left of the party) had no business doing as well as she did last time. Which doesn't mean she can't win now; but remember: Axworthy first scored in a surprise upset of none other than PC cabinet minister and future G-G Ray Hnatyshyn. If one predicted *then* that the successor seat would one be the best NDP seat in Sask, that would've been an eye-roller, indeed...
07 12 09 CM
It is very odd how low voter turnout was last election. After all, much more than 29 275 live in this riding. This may come down to who has the most volunteers on e-day to get supporters out to vote.
07 11 24 Daniel
The pragmatist in me says ‘too close to call,’ but my gut says ‘probable Conservative hold.’ With Lorne Calvert's NDP being turfed from office provincially, I don't think that the equalization issue will be a deal breaker for the Conservatives in Saskatchewan(as some earlier commentators had predicted)- Calvert won't have the profile to make it an issue, and Brad Wall certainly won't be campaigning against Harper on it. Also noteworthy is that, ever since Jack Layton became NDP leader, the party hasn't won a single federal seat in Saskatchewan - the province in which it was born. The ‘Ontario urbanite’ flavour of socialism espoused by Layton's NDP is a poor match for the Tommy Douglas/Ed Broadbent ‘populist everyman’ variety that allowed the NDP to do so well here in the past. Additionally, Saskatchewan's economy is at the beginning of a boom, so I don't see this seat flipping to the NDP based on general malcontent/protest vote, either. Maybe if Nettie Wiebe runs a vigorous campaign, and the Conservative candidate runs a lacklustre one, this will go NDP, but the notion that Wiebe will waltz to vitory based on name recognition alone is a stretch.
07 11 17 Stevo
Carol Skelton's departure certainly opens the door for the NDP, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. Saskatchewan is not a very socialist-friendly place these days and Jack Layton is finding it near-impossible to connect with voters outside the largest cities. As Saskatchewan's economy booms and entrenches its Have-Province status, NDP fortunes will diminish even further. Given traditional Liberal weakness in the province, the Tories will more of less have the field to themselves. At this point, too close to call in Sask-Rosetown-Biggar, but the edge remains with the Conservatives.
07 09 25 Christopher
With Carol Skelton announcing her departure from politics this riding is prime for a Nettie Wiebe/NDP pick up. Nettie has been out canvassing in the rural and urban parts of the riding while the Conservatives are yet to pick a replacement for Ms Skelton.
Carol's personal popularity was one of the reason's the Conservatives were able to hold on to this seat. We'll have to wait and see who the Conservatives decide to run, until then I'd say Too Close to Call with an NDP advantage especially if Saskatoon City Councilor Maurice Neault ends up with the Conservative Nomination.
07 08 08 SaskPhoenix
Things have just got even more interesting with the recent announcement made by Conservative MP Carol Skelton. Skelton announced that she will not be seeking re-election in the next election, and that means it suddenly opens the door for the NDP to reclaim the seat they lost to Skelton two elections ago.
The NDP's chances of winning this riding have just skyrocketed due to Skelton's departure *and* the Conservatives' growing unpopularity in Saskatchewan over the broken equalizement payments promises. Harper will be very hard-pressed to find a non-polarizing representative from Saskatchewan to sit at the cabinet table - that shows how big of shoes Skelton has left for the next Saskatchewan cabinet rep to fill.
Time to call this NDP for Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar.
07 08 08 R.D.
With Carol Skelton announcing she will not run again, I think the path is clear for Nettie Wiebe to be elected to parliament and restore some federal NDP representation to Saskatchewan.
07 08 04 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Skelton will not be seeking re-election. Great news for the NDP as it was her hard work and popularity that largely keep them out of this riding for sometime. Saskatchewan premier Calvert had wondered, ‘ part of Carol's decision related to the recent polling that shows the Conservative party in Saskatchewan taking the steepest decline anywhere in the country?’ We wonder that too. Moot point, she's not running. We think that the NDP, if they can keep their polling numbers up, can take this riding now. A lot depends on when the election is called and if the CPC has rebounded at all by that time. Still plenty of ‘Ifs’ to make a definitive call, but now we say the slight advantage is to the NDP.
07 06 26 SaskPhoenix
I am not going to make a prediction as of now, but with the way things are looking for the Saskatchewan Conservative MPs over the broken equalization promises, their re-election chances have become weaker. If Premier Calvert and public opinion continue against the Tories, the urban Tory MPS could be turfed out by angry voters on election day.
07 06 16 binriso
Probably a CPC win but the NDP could easily win this with any sort of swing. Any chance they could convince Jim Pankiw to run here and split up the right wing vote? That would be interesting. Guess there is a lot of pent up racism to vote for Pankiw in some areas of the province.
07 06 01 MDF+
This is really the only seat in Saskatchewan where the NDP have a realistic shot this go round. The two Regina seats where they should have had a chance (Regina - Lumsden - Lake Centre and Regina - Qu'Appelle) they've essentially surrendered to weak Tory incumbents by nominating even weaker candidates.
Anyway - Nettie is a strong candidate, and was the closest New Democrat to a win last time. However, I don't see enough NDP grwoth for her to pick it up.
The ONLY thing working to Nettie's advantage is the Carol Skelton has damaged her own credibility by being the invisible Minister. They showed her picture to the journalist panel on Mike Duffy Live and no one knew who she was.
The best hope for the NDP is if the federal election is off until sometime in 2008, so that Saskatchewan voters will have had the opportunity to vent their spleen on the provincial NDP. Nettie could pull it off if she didn't have to contend with the provincial NDP's baggage.
That said, while Carol Skelton is the most vulnerable Tory in Saskatchewan, she'll probably survive.
07 05 19 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Latest poll has the Conservatives down 8% with the NDP up 8% in western Canada. Same poll has Greens down 3% and Liberals up 3%. With numbers like that, a riding this close last time very easily has the potential to flip NDP. Skelton definitly has a following and people may vote for her as opposed to the party, but an equally well known NDP candidate can negate that. Especially if the Sask government is still crying foul over the budget when an election is called.
07 04 17 DMD
Granted, Ms Skelton has been less than a Cabinet superstar. She is nonetheless a very likable and well-liked, sincere Parliamentarian, and an actual bona fide Saskatoon-area Cabinet minister (and when was the last time there was one of those?). I know her margins have been tight, but I frankly expect her to hold the seat with a wider spread next time out, on the basis of her Cabinet status and its ability to sway more LPC votes in Saskatoon who like the idea of a seat at the table.
07 04 10 M. Lunn
Of the four Saskatoon ridings, this is the most vulnerable and could potentially go NDP. It was the only one of the four Saskatoon ridings where the Tories lost the Saskatoon portions of the riding, but still won due to massive wins in the rural sections. While I expect the rural area to go solidly conservative again, the Wheat Board changes could cost them up to 10% of the vote in the rural sections, which would be enough to put the riding in jeopardy if the Tories fall out of favour in Saskatoon.
07 04 08 free_thinker
This is one of the closer ridings in the province but there is still little chance for Carol Skelton to loose. She is one of Stephen Harper's favourite MPs and she is consistently seen as one of the hardest working Members of Parliament. Skelton will hold this riding regardless of who the challenger is.
07 04 04 Stevo
Commentators on this site wrote Carol Skelton's political obituary in both the 2004 and 2006 elections, and she won comfortably both times against a well-respected NDP challenger. There is no evidence to suggest that she will not do likewise in the next election whenever it is called. Although she lacks much of a profile, she is one of the hardest-working MPs in the House of Commons and is a personal favourite of Harper. Jack Layton's NDP has very little of the appeal in Saskatchewan that Ed Broadbent's NDP did. Victory to Ms. Skelton.
07 03 31 Rey D.R.
Definte edge to Skelton here as she is a sitting cabinet minister (National Revenue). However she has been quite invisible in the cabinet, for instance when Gerry Ritz got promoted to a Jr. Cabinet post in January, Leon Benoit MP for Vegreville-Wainwright said that ‘Saskatchewan needed a minister and Gerry was the obvious choice’, of course they already had one in Skelton.
The NDP always are a factor here, and they always seem to target this riding, but it is unlikely they will win. However, depending on who the NDP nominate and the national campaign, under the right set of cirumstances they may be able to take the riding. I'll say its TCTC with a clear edge to Skelton.
07 03 28 Angry Ontarian
Carol Skelton's only threat is the NDP. However, socialist fortunes have sunk since the last election. And being Harper's Cabinet Minister for Saskatchewan, voters here will want to keep her regardless of how the province votes.

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