Prediction Changed
09:07 11/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Duncan, Linda
Hunter, Kevan
Jaffer, Rahim
Roy, Claudette
Thrall, Jane

Rahim Jaffer

2006 Result:
Rahim Jaffer **
Linda Duncan
Andy Hladyshevsky
Cameron Wakefield
Michael Fedeyko
Dave Dowling
Kevan Hunter

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 10 RP.
I predict that if this site keeps this riding blue, it will be one of the few errors they make. :) Jack keeps going back to Edmonton, ES is an orange ripe for the picking.
08 10 09 B.A.S.
The people here comparing Edmonton Strathcona provincially to this riding are missing the point.
Jaffer has lost the U of A and Faculté St. Jean parts of the riding in all four of his previous wins and won comfortably every time.
As for the Liberal vote collapsing ... it 'collapsed' to the point where Jaffer barely won by a little less than 5,000 votes last election.
In any other province this would be a solid Conservative victory. In Alberta people get excited because they want a competitive race in one riding somewhere in the province.
08 10 09 Concordia Dipper
I think its important to note that there are a lot of lefties in Alberta, contrary to popular belief, especially in Edmonton.
>From everything I've seen progressives in the area are targeting this riding hard and liberals seem to have acknowledged that the NDP candidate is the consensus anti-Harper candidate here. and Democratic space are both telling Liberals to vote strategically for the NDP here.
Given that the threshold between Jaffer and the NDP last time around wasn't so great, and that even half the Liberal vote would hand this riding to the NDP, I'm calling this one for the NDP.
08 10 07 binriso
Im actually going to go ahead and call it for the NDP here. There arent as many left-leaning fringe parties running this time(and the Progressive Canadian party would definitely not vote CPC anyways), which will give a few more votes to the NDP, the CPC are polling in the high 50s here(they were at 65% last time) while the NDP are around 15%, with those numbers, this riding will change. The NDP are running very strongly here as well and are the clear alternative. Not to mention the lack of a Liberal campaign in Alberta, Dions only paid one short visit to Calgary, while Laytons been to Edmonton and Calgary and should probably go back to Edmonton while he is out west at least once more. This will lead to an NDP seat in every province(except PEI) since I think the NDP will probably win one seat in Saskatchewan as well and Newfoundland too.
08 10 07 Steve Smith
I think it might actually be time to put this back in TCTC, and I was one of the people scoffing at that prediction earlier (go ahead and scroll down). I still think Jaffer takes it, but it looks more and more like the Liberal vote will collapse to unimaginably low (even for Alberta) levels, which would make it competitive.
08 10 06 J.D. is currently predicting this riding will fall to the NDP. The NDP is running a crazy-high-profile campaign that's getting gobs of media coverage. They chartered a bus, canvassed thousands of households in a single day on the weekend, and got shown on local television. There's even a ‘Liberals for Linda’ campaign. There's been a story in the local media almost every day about how this is a two-way race and it's too close to call. The commenters who are saying ‘this riding always splits the vote, ho hum, same old same old’ are delusional. This is a much closer race than it's EVER been before.
Unlike some of the others here, I'm not prepared to say that the NDP will win it, but it should definitely be put into the TCTC column.
08 10 05 CG
Yes, this riding should be put into the TCTC. If anywhere there was going to be an upset in Alberta, it's here. There is a strong campaign being fought here by the NDP, and I think it's a little too soon to call this Cons.
08 10 05
Definitely a TCTC riding, and NOT a safe Conservative win. The provincial representative for Edmonton-Strathcona is one of two New Democrats in the Alberta Legislature (although the riding boundaries federally and provincially differ somewhat). A look at the 2004 and 2006 results shows that the NDP has a considerable base of support in the riding. It will be a close race, but I think the NDP will pull it off. My prediction: Edmonton-Strathcona will be the only riding in Alberta to send a non-Conservative MP to Ottawa.
08 10 04 Devon P
This riding shouldn't be called yet, or more accurately, it should be un-called and made TCTC. The NDP is running a strong national campaign, and this riding has historically been weak for the CPC (relatively speaking, of course).
08 10 02 binriso
Well Harper isnt actually doing as well in Alberta as last time most polls give him around 60% as opposed to 65 last time. With the Liberals probably not bothering much in any riding outside Edmonton Center, and the NDP polling higher here than 06 and if people actually smarten up and strategically vote for the NDP here, who are the clear alternative, theyll win.
08 10 02 Louise
The first all-candidates' meeting showed that the Liberal candidate was particularly weak in that setting, reading from prepared notes and not responding well to specific questions. As well, the intense interest and awareness in environmental issues suggested that many people here are likely to vote on that issue instead of on their historical party loyalty. Both factors mean more people voting for Linda Duncan the NDP candidate, and clearly the only viable challenge this time around for Rahim Jaffer. Other prediction models have this riding too close to call, without considering strategic-voting factors -- I think the anyone-but-Conservative and the anyone-but-Rahim crowd (they are not the same) will put Linda Duncan over the top.
08 10 02 Nick J Boragina
As I've said twice before, this riding will come down to how strong of a national campaign the NDP runs. The the party polling at 1988 election result levels I dont think it's a surprise that some are saying this riding might actually be a race. At minimum an eye should be kept on it, and if the NDP can break 21% nationally in the polls, this riding might fall.
08 09 24 Seth
Rahim Jaffer won this with 42% of the vote, the lowest in Alberta. With the Liberals tanking and the NDP gaining ground, some former Liberal or Green voters may strategically vote NDP this time. I predict Jaffer will win again, but he will have to work harder than he has in the past. In the end he will win by less than 1,000 votes. This should be marked TCTC.
08 09 23 dls
Of note, Stephen Harper is now making a unplanned stop over in Edmonton this Thursday to attend an event hosted by Rahim Jaffer. The NDP are up in the polls both national and in Alberta. If memory serves me correctly he didnt visit this riding in 2004 or 2006. Maybe things have tightened up a bit and Linda Duncan is closing the gap or maybe not. Food for thought though.
08 09 22 Go Habs Go
This is the one riding which actually seems to have some conservative opposition. With the university as part of the riding and a general feeling that Jaffer isn't anything more than a smile and a hair coiffe, Duncan could get the vote. A lot of potential Liberal votes seems to be considering an ABR (Anyone But Rahim) to be more important and their is the view that Duncan is the only one who can do it.
08 09 20 John
Calev makes a very good point. With the NDP taking aim at the tar sands and the Liberal Green Shift being viewed a bit like NEP 2, this riding will stay Conservative.
In fact, last provincial election both the provincial Grits and the provincial NDP shot themselves in the foot with their stance on oilfield royalties. The result was a massive increase in support for the Conservatives and the Liberals losing a lot of Edmonton seats to the Conservatives.
I don't think the federal parties will get off any easier taking an aim at the oil patch. While this is probably the most vulnerable Tory seat in Alberta, it will stay Tory.
08 09 20 Real Deal
The federal riding contains lots of provincial ridings - only 1 is NDP and the other few are split between the PC's and Liberals but that's pretty diverse.. for Alberta. Large demographic variety here .. all kinds of neighbourhoods that tend to lean certain ways. If there will be an Alberta riding that flips, this will be the one and not Edmonton Centre. The NDP'er that held the Alberta riding after Pannu is the daughter of a popular former Alberta NDP leader who died in a plane crash while leader... so the hold wasn't surprising
08 09 20 Pierre from Québec
If there is any change in Alberta, this is the ridding where it will take place. Apart Jack Layton, any other party leader campaigned yet in Alberta.
Provincially this ridding is NDP, and it is so even after Raj Pannu (fr. MLA for Strathcona) departure from the Alberta NDP leadership.
08 09 18 Darren
NDP came within 9% of the vote in the 2006 election, and given the Conservatives' position on copyright and culture (C-61 and C-10 respectively) I can see this university district making their voice heard. The current MP, Rahim Jaffer, belies his lack of understanding when it comes to these issues - he had no idea there were major copyright reforms in the mid-90s, and believed there had been no change to the Copyright act since the 50s, according to a colleague of mine who discussed the issue with him.
08 09 16 Bugs Bunny
For two days in a row, EKOS has put the NDP over 20% in Alberta, almost double what it recieved last election. The EKOS seat projection has the NDP winning this riding. If this trend holds, Jaffer's time in parliament is up.
08 09 15 Calev
Jack Layton talk of shutting down the oil sands all but ended any talk of NDP victory here in my mind. You can just imagine how popular that would be in Alberta and luckily Duncan was standing right next to him. (before you say anything, it does not matter what YOU think it matters that the oil sands provide enormous amounts of wealth and prosperity to Alberta allowing proper funding for important things like health care, and education. Without that, Alberta would not be able to afford to fund those things the way they are.) Easy Conservative hold
08 09 14 Stevo
I stand corrected, re: Alberta NDP wins. Okay, so the NDP managed to snag an Alberta seat in 1988, the election in which the NDP recorded its best seat tally in its history. However, a win in Edmonton-Strathcona would be much more than the momentum-causing/Broadbent-popularity 1988 victory in Edmonton East. Rather, it would be a more reliable beachhead of future NDP support in the province. Of course, for now this is speculative, and Rahim Jaffer will cruise to victory once more. He will probably make Cabinet this time, as well.
08 09 11 Bugs Bunny
Too close to call. Polls show the NDP up and the Libs tanking. Duncan was close last time, and will be even closer this time. I don't know if she will do it, but if there is one Alberta riding that will fall from the Tories, this is it. The NDP is running a stronger campaign this time (both in the riding and on the airwaves), Jack has already brought Linda in front of the National media, and I expect him to be back in Alberta soon.
I'm worried that Harper is taking this for granted. It will be close, it might be an upset.
08 09 10 binriso
A correction to an earlier poster, the NDP did win Edmonton East in 1988 and elected Ross Harvey. He obviously lost in 1993, but did pretty well under the circumstances. The Liberals obviously wont be putting in any major effort in this riding and that might let the NDP squeak through. CPC will probably win nonetheless though.
08 09 10 Steve Smith
Just a correction, stevo - a win in Edmonton-Strathcona wouldn't be the federal NDP's first ever Alberta win. That honour went to Edmonton East's Ross Harvey in 1988.
08 09 10 Floydo
Once, just once, the NDP won a federal riding in Alberta, in 1988. The PCs were on a long slow decline and that, combined with classic vote splitting, gave the NDP candidate in Edmonton East victory by fewer than 800 votes. The Conservatives won by about 5000 votes in 2006 in Strathcona and Harper is a run away freight train of popularity in Alberta (currently 35 points ahead of the Liberals on the Prairies in the Globe and Mail). This province has waited a political generation to see a right wing government back in Ottawa and Edmonton Strathcona will NOT undermine Harper's return to the big chair.
08 09 09 Mark Wilson
Ross Harvey was elected in Edmonton East in 1988 for the New Dems...
08 09 08 Stevo
As long as Stephen Harper remains Prime Minister, this riding remains comfortably in the Conservative column. His popularity in his home province is too all-encompassing. Once Harper exits the political scene (and that won't happen for a good 3-4 years at the least...maybe more if he wins a strong enough majority this year and is tempted to fight another election campaign in 2012) and the party likely turns to a non-Western leader to succeed him to solidify Ontario and Quebec gains, all bets are off and the NDP will have a real chance of taking this seat - I believe that would make it the first Alberta federal NDP win ever.
08 09 07 Joseph Leeder
Oh, come on. This is ‘too close to call’ again?! It has been called this every single election on this site and Rahim Jaffer always pulls it off with a confident and significant 5,000-vote margin of victory. No contest - Rahim wins.
08 09 07 Mark Wilson
Linda grabbed 32.5% of the vote last election and Claudette Roy won't be able to split the vote. This one is going ND.
08 09 06 John
The comments I just made on recent Globe and Mail polls in Edmonton Centre apply here too. Conservatives have overwhelming support in the three prairie provinces (close to 60%). Rahim Jaffer has held this riding for several elections now, and enjoys the incumbency advantage. No uncertainty here. This riding will stay Conservative.
08 08 30 Steve Smith
Every election people latch on to this riding as the one Alberta riding that might swing away from the Conservatives (or their predecessors) and every time they're wrong. It's boring to admit that the Conservatives are basically guaranteed a sweep in Alberta, but it's also true. The bottoming out of the Liberal vote last time gave the NDP their best chance ever here, but they still fell well short. Roy will do at least as well as Hladyshevsky did (probably slightly better), which won't help Duncan any.
08 08 27 B.A.S.
The Liberals basically didn't contest this riding in 2006. Andy Hladyshevsky won less than 18% of the vote here which boosted Linda Duncan's numbers.
The Liberals are running a stronger candidate, Claudette Roy, this time around. Roy will perform strongly in the francophone parts of the riding. However, she will be stealing votes from Linda Duncan, not Rahim Jaffer.
Look for Jaffer to maintain his solid 40% of the vote, with a larger margin of victory in 2006 due to increased vote splitting between the Liberals and the NDP.
08 08 17 Pierre from Québec
The most progressive ridding in Alberta. The Dippers have a chance because they are going to invest here everything, since in all other ridings Conservatives have already won.
08 06 02 T.V.
This is the Liberals' best chance to win a seat in Alberta. Unfortunately, that's still not a very good chance. While the demographics are theoretically amenable to the Liberal party, the vote split with the NDP and the natural Alberta Liberal handicap would make a win here very difficult. They have a very strong candidate here in Claudette Roy, but she may just attract enough votes to ensure that the NDP also don't win this seat.
08 02 28 A.S.
I guess it's the formidable say-uncle fact of Harper being PM, but I find the so-far dearth of Edmonton-Strathcona NDP (or Liberal, for that matter) predictions a little odd compared to previous EPP sessions. I mean, be careful, people; despite Harper, this could still be a Joe Comartin 2000 ‘surprise! didn't think we'd do it’ situation, even now...
08 02 18 John
Every single election they mark this as too close to call and yet Rahim Jaffer consistently wins by 5,000 votes! As for the comment about Iveson, the vast majority of Ward 5 actually falls into the riding of Edmonton-Leduc.
07 11 17 tcalmack
Look for the money to flow into this riding and the anybody but Harper vote to gel into an opportunity to send a real message to the country about the more tolerant side of Alberta.
07 10 23
Just an FYI, in the municipal elections here in Edmonton in Oct. the only sitting incumbent who got turfed was Mike Nickel whos ward falls almost entirely in this riding and they elected a 28yo socialist (Iveson) in his place. Nickel wasn't really deemed unpopular or anything, but he had the image as very vocal classic fiscal/social conservative.
07 09 18 Nick J Boragina
When you hear Outremont, you don’t think Strathcona, but they two may be linked. The recent victory by Mulcair out in Quebec for the NDP might be just the poll boost the NDP was looking for. As I said in my last prediction, the NDP needs a jump in poll numbers in order to be competitive here, that victory might just be enough. For the time being, I still feel this is a CPC win, but it’s is by far the most vulnerable Tory seat in the province.
07 09 15
It would be interesting to see an NDP win in solid-blue Alberta, but I don't think it's going to happen. Rahim Jaffer is a prominent, young MP on the government side and I can't see the electorate trashing him for a fourth-party backbencher (Linda Duncan).
07 06 10 binriso
Really i think this is the only riding that will have a margin of victory for the CPC less than 20% in Alberta. Probably not much lower either. NDP have a chance win but it?d be a long shot although i really would never have thought they?d come as close as they did last time so who knows.
07 04 22 G. Kennedy (not that one)
This is probably, even moreso than Edmonton Centre (which was really only ever in play on account of Annie), the most vulnerable riding in the province for the Conservatives. Even so, Jaffer still won by about 5,000 votes and if the election is held outside of school, he's in safely. This is not mentioning the fact that the NDP seems to be going downhill.
07 04 22 N. Grant
Edmonton Strathcona will be the race to watch in Alberta. Linda Duncan placed a very strong second here in 2006 and with more support from the central NDP campaign next time, Jaffer may get a run for his money.
Crevat: the Liberals have nominated a strong candidate in Claudette Roy which will inevitably split the centre-left vote in Jaffer's favour and cost Duncan the race.
07 04 21 Ryan N
This is Alberta we're talking about! I'd be utterly SHOCKED if ANY riding goes non-Conservative, regardless of this incumbent's past comments/actions.
07 04 19 Calev
In the last election Jaffer actually IMPROVED in the number of votes. That combined with the fact that school will most likely out at the time, and with the fact that the NDP are down nationally and the green up, I think that Jaffer will be elected easily. The Liberals are of no threat here.
07 04 16 Steve Smith
Every election, the Liberals and the NDP get all excited and assure us that this is the year that they knock off Rahim Jaffer. Every election, they fall well short. I can sort of understand why the Alberta amateur punditocracy would want to turn this riding into a race given how few uncertain results there are in the province, but the real battle is for second place (where I think the NDP will repeat).
07 04 12 Nick J Boragina
If the NDP was not down so far in the polls I might feel differently, but with the tories up, and both main opposition parties down, I don’t see any way the NDP can win here.
07 04 08 Joe
Uh KTR???
Where do you get your evidence that the Liberals have raised more than the NDP?
According to elections Canada, the Liberals in this riding spent almost $78,000 last time, only to come third. The Tories spent the same, and the NDP spent about $50K. So the Liberals can't possibly have any advantage they didn't have last time.
My NDP friends say this time they are spending the limit in Strathcona.
Edmonton Liberals are focusing on Edmonton Centre, and nothing else.
This seat is too close to call between Jaffer and Duncan. The one thing everyone agrees on here is that the Liberals are not running a serious campaign.
07 04 07 ktr
Last time everyone lent their votes to the NDP from the Liberals, and the Liberals didn?t nominate a candidate until well after the writ was dropped. This time the Liberals have a solid candidate in place and have raised more money that the NDP and have a bunch of NDP supporters onside. Linda is a good candidate but not a great one and she will be dragged down by her party's low poll supports nationally. Claudette Roy will pull it off by a narrow margin.
07 04 02 Calev
The only reason the NDP came as close as they did is because of the student vote from the university. As long as the election is held after school is over which it most likely will, it will be conservative easily.
07 04 01 CJH
Linda Duncan has been building votes up and there have been a lot of MPs coming in to support her, while the Liberals have been non-existent or just going through the motions during the pre-election period. Another advantage for her is the fact that the environment has been such a huge issue this year - it's her area of strength, and the Conservatives' worst issue. I think Ms. Duncan will unite just enough of the anti-Rahim vote to pull out in front of Jaffer, but it will be right down to the wire. I won't be surprised if this race need recounts at the end.
07 03 25 GM
Duncan vs Jaffer one more time. Unless Rahim Jaffer does something stupid (in this next year, not in the past) then I think it's still his race to lose. For the NDP to get 20,000 they'd need a lot of pull from other parties and I don't think it's presently there. Jaffer wins by 5,000 votes.

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