Prediction Changed
5:02 PM 27/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Fleetwood-Port Kells
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Fernando, Nao
Grewal, Nina
Locke, Brenda
Newbold, Brian

Nina Grewal

2006 Result:
Nina Grewal **
Brenda Locke
Barry Bell
Jack Cook
Duncan McDonald

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 13 Linda
If you take a look at the riding around various neighbourhoods, the people who are loud and proud about their parties are the conservatives and ndp. Where are the hardcore liberal supporters? For some people, Nine Grewal's husband will be remembered and deter them from re-electing her. She never really won by big margins in the past anyways. Nao will have the support of the major unions, and it seems like they have been slowly gaining support if you look at the last few elections. Its a close race, really, but the ndp might be able to pull win.
08 09 16 layman
Despite the general prediction of this being a Conservative-Liberal toss up, there is growing evidence at ground level that this will be a closer three way contest. NDP candidate has a wider reach than most Conservatives and Liberals think and he certainly seems to leverage on his contacts. The manner in which NDP put themselves ahead in the game right after election was called is an example of their momentum. Certainly NDP has huge momentum and NDP candiate seems to be the only one who will be able unseat Nina Grewal.
08 09 15 no
I think this could go down to the wire but if Brenda Locke tries to strategically go after the old Barry Bell NDP voters she can be successful - the NDP does not have as strong a candidate this time to split the vote as much and there are not the big issues of gay marriage to galvanize the right wing voters for Nina.
08 09 14
I used to live in this riding and I never met anyone who personally supported Nina Grewal - I disagree with previous posts saying she has a high profile. If Brenda Locke gets some signs out and pulls out a good campaign, I think she has a real shot of unseating the Tories. The only reason Nina got in before is because people voted for the party. Since the NDP candidate is pretty low-profile, I think the non-Conservative vote won't be split much.
08 09 04 binriso
So the independent candidate was a Liberal? And that helped the Liberals almost win? 3200 votes for the independent candidate probably robbed the Liberals from winning here last time, Im still thinking theres a good chance for them to win this time.
08 09 03 A. T.
The only reason this was even close in 2006 was in addition to their own candidate, the Liberals ran a former Liberal Campaign Manager as an independent The independents only campaigning was a DVD attacking the Grewal family sent to every home in the riding. In the last 2 elections Nina Grewal has beaten two former BC Liberal Cabinet ministers and will once again beat Brenda Locke in her second attempt. Has anyone noticed the amount of funding that Surrey has been receiving since Nina was elected and the Conservatives became government. More money in the past 24 months than in the previous 13 years.
08 08 13
after Talking to surrey liberals supporters, this is going to be the riding where they throw all their support to. nina isn't very well liked here, even in cpc circles. this should turn out to be a liberal win.
08 02 19 BJ
Since this federal riding comprises the entire provincial riding of Surrey-Tynehead (safe Lib), the northern portion of the provincial riding of Surrey Cloverdale (safe Lib), and the eastern portion of Surrey Newton (safe NDP), this is more of a battle between the Tories and the Liberals.
With numerous polls over the past few months, the Tories in BC have been trending higher than their overall 2006 BC result. Likely Tory hold.
08 02 17 A.S.
In part because it's a ‘new’ seat, Fleetwood-Port Kells is a hard one to read--the natural dynamic is presently 3-way and Nina Grewal's never won by much, though she's done well considering her husband's humiliation and the relative profile of Brenda Locke. (And provincially, it's here and nearby in Surrey where the NDP scored many of their sweetest comeback victories in 2005.) At the very least, Nina's persistence practically invites jokes about her being the Hillaryesque political ‘brains’ within the Grewal household...
07 10 11
Actually, no I would not predict a Liberal win here. In-between election polls do not show very much, and British Columbians are known for their erratic voting behaviour. The CPC or NDP could very well come out 1st in BC in terms of vote percentage on election day.
It will be a fight for Grewal to keep it. She has been an active and visible MP, but Locke's former provincial cabinet minister portfolio gives Locke the advantage.
07 07 24 binriso
Latest poll for BC gives the Liberals 32%, NDP 28% and CPC trailing in 3rd with only 27%. They could be in deep trouble in the city Vancouver and Vancouver Island, which is where the Liberals and NDP are strongest. The Liberals only have 800 votes to make up here and that will be no problem if polls continually show the CPC down out in BC. I think the Liberals will pick this one up although it will be very close.
07 05 08 Dave
I think there is room for a Liberal win. They came very close last time around and with more development in the riding and a new wave of families and with Surrey becoming more urbanized i see a strong chance of a Liberal win.
07 05 09
07 04 17 Steve L.
Conservatives have been losing seats in BC ever since the euphoric showings in federal BC in election 2000. and if they're to lose any more, this will likely be the first. it's Nina Grewal - it's obvious. but the rest aren't much better. the average quality of the candidates here are about as inspiring as that of Burnaby-Douglas - and that's not saying much.
that said, the national fallout of the Liberal farce / Conservative triumph of January 2006 more or less ensured Nina's survival, and with no significant indications of Conservative fortunes going anywhere else right now, i'm not inclined to call Nina's demise.
i will just say that this is currently an uphill battle for any non-Nina candidate.
07 04 01
Polls right now indicate the Conservatives are surging in BC, with over a 10 point lead over the Liberals. I don't think you have evidence Nina Grewal is unpopular in this riding. She has been very active in this community, from holding town halls, meeting with constituents, meeting with ethnic communities, serving on various committees. I think right now is too close to call. It will all depend on who the Liberals choose to run, and how well each party runs their campaign.
In terms of Liberal campaign ‘tanking,’ according to one poll, Dion has an approval rating of 12%, others indicating slightly higher. That is not a very flattering number. Contrasting, the Conservative support is increasingly growing on urban and ethnic voters, so the influx of ethnic/urban populations is not necessarily a bad thing. We will have to see how the campaign go.
07 03 28 M. Lunn
Considering how rapidly this riding is growing and where much of the growth is coming from, I think this riding may be one more suburban riding to fall to the Liberals. The Liberals almost won this last time around, so as long as their national campaign doesn't tank, I think they can take it this time. Nina Grewal is not exactly a popular MP to begin with.

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