Prediction Changed
11:32 PM 03/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Vancouver Kingsway
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Cariou, Kimball
New Democratic
Davies, Don
Kadioglu, Matt
Petersen, Donna
Rayek, Salomon
Warkentin, Doug
Yuan, Wendy

Hon. David Emerson

2006 Result:
David Emerson **
Ian Waddell
Kanman Wong
Arno Schortinghuis
Matt Kadioglu
Kimball Cariou
Connie Fogal
Donna Petersen

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 09 Aleem
I also attended the all-candidates forum for Vancouver-Kingsway on Monday (Oct 6) and agree that Wendy did a terrible job (but at least she showed up unlike the Conservative candidate who at first tried to claim to the Georgia Straight that he didn't even know about it!). I wrote about the forum yesterday but it didn't seem to get posted. I agree Wendy didn't seem to know anything about the issues (e.g. asked why Liberals weren't able to bring in accessible and affordable child care in many years in office despite promises she said it was Layton's fault for not supporting the Kelowna Accord?! - I kid you not). She also handled confrontation very badly. When confronted by Falun Gong (sp?) members about saying the previous week at a Chinese Mall that their persecution by China was an internal matter for China her response was to keep asking the questioner to repeat the obvious question. She also got caught out about her actually living in Richmond and only very recently getting an apartment in the district while still retaining her home in Richmond. I agree that Don was much more articulate and informed (while still appearing passionate about the issues), etc. We'll see how this translates at election time. I was going to vote Liberal over NDP (based on their platforms and leaders but not on the candidates in the riding) but I will have a very difficult time supporting Wendy and don't think I can do it.
08 10 08 Renee
I attended both the Oct. 6 All Candidates Forum and the Oct. 7 Candidates Debate with all candidates present (exception Salamon Rajek) I am worried for Vancouver Kingsway. Of all the questions presented to the candidates Wendy Yuan was unable to answer any of them or if at all very insufficiently! In fact she appeared unable to even grasp the questions! - For one example, when asked to explain the role of the Senate in Canada she was unable to so! My summation of Wendy's comments for both evenings is: I am Chinese, I came to Canada with $25.00 in my pocket, I knock on doors and tell people I will not cross the floor and finally (over and over again) I am so happy to be here!!! great candidate Liberals - this one is scary! The rest of the candidates gave great examples in their answers - often siting statistics. Yuan, halfway through the debate (obviosly unable to again answer a question) said she doubted the other candidates facts and would have to research them!!!!!! Don Davies on the other hand was articulate and very easy to understand. He is clear on the issues and has vast knowledge of the issues of the people. This will be a very tight race but I think the NDP have the edge.
08 10 08 Joshua Zuckerman
I think it's too soon to predict this as an NDP win as it is still close between the Liberals and the NDP. Demoratic Space shows this riding with a slight Liberal advantage.
08 10 04 Burt
A win for Don Davies. He's been working hard, speaks to the people of this riding, and isn't painted negatively by the Emerson scandal on one side or another (how can these voters trust another Liberal?)
08 10 03 gorman
It won't be a slam dunk but my prediction is that Wendy Yuan an the Liberals will take this on Oct 14Th. My logic is that a large part of the asian population that live in the riding will back MS.Yuan.The NDP will work hard but in the end the libs win by about 2000 votes.
08 10 02 Gone Fishing
Based solely on the respected opinion of Bear and Ape, and the polls that seem to say BC is a NDP / Conservative race. I think this is an NDP pickup. I can't imagine a riding association that had a liberal candidate parachuted in a few elections ago (Emerson) being that ready to launch a candidate selection committee and getting behind someone. True they have the added incentive of payback but those things don't always work so well. Look at the effort by the conservatives to get at Belinda Stronach, it didn't work too well and they had a national campaign that could give Newmarket some attention.
I think the Liberals have problems closer to home base Toronto to worry about and pour their effort to. There don't seem to be too many Liberal safe spots with incumbents in BC.
I agree that a left leaning riding would never have elected Emerson as a Conservative. Unless I am missing something colour this one light green or orange or whatever colour the NDP claims.
08 09 28 Brent
Of all the Vancouver ridings, this one is most likely to fall to the NDP, especially given its history and its relative strength in the Vancouver city at this time. Much will depend on how well the Dippers can get their vote out...but I expect they will take it by a few percentage points ahead of the Libs.
08 09 27
A very interesting race in terms of signage. When the writ was dropped, Wendy Yuan had easily the most signs out. Every few houses sported her signs. Now it seems like Don Davies and even Salomon Rayek have caught up. Yes folks, I'd say Rayek Salomon has more signs up than the candidate expected to win - Wendy Yuan. Even one intersection had 3 houses sporting Rayek signs. The 2006 CPC candidate lagged far behind in comparison. Davies has signs spread out across the riding too. If you didn't know the history of the riding, you'd think it was a close three-way race.
Is this perhaps a 'sign' of a close race? We'll see on election day.
08 09 26 Vortigern
Two factors have contributed to past Liberal wins here: the fact that the provincial government happened to be NDP, or the presence of a ‘star’ candidate. Neither of these are relevant in 2008.
History suggests only the NDP or the Liberals can win here, and the declining level of Liberal support certainly isn't favourable to them. Ultimately, this riding seems likely to be won by whichever party is willing to devote resources to it, and if the Liberals find themselves in the position of sacrificing one Vancouver riding in order to focus on the other three, this is going to be it.
08 09 20 IB
The Wendy Yuan campaign has really picked up momentum. Bob Rae will be with her on Sunday to lend her some star power. The NDP has been sitting back a little too much. I think this one goes to the Liberals.
08 09 19 tim,
although wendy yuan has more yard/lawn signs, don davies, the ndp candidate has the edge in terms of his education and involvement with the community. the conservatives in this riding are really becoming a lot stronger but of course, they will never win this riding. but because of the rise of the conservatives, they will pull a lot of votes from the liberals and therfore collapsing wendy yuan's votes. don davies is going to win this one for sure.
08 09 18 Bernard
This will be an NDP pick up.
Taking account of the declining Liberal support in BC and the fact their candidate is not a star that will boost their vote, they will see a dramatic loss of their vote in this riding.
The Conservatives are in no danger of gaining any ground here.
This is not a strong Green area and their vote will not increase as much as elsewhere in BC.
The NDP almost wins be default.
NDP - 43%
Liberals - 28%
Conservatives - 21%
Greens - 8%
Historically the in the 12 elections from 1953 to 1984 this riding was won by the CCF/NDP 10 times. The riding did not exist for the 1988 and 1993 elections but parts of it contributed to keeping Svend Robinson elected.
08 09 18 E. L. Smerl
Liberals are so hopping mad and motivated I can't see them losing this to the NDP. Add in a candidate with an obviously Chinese name and it seems unlikely it'll fall to the NDP. As for a Conservative win, hahahahhahhha. Not even Emerson could have held an ABC riding with the toxic Harper banner.
08 09 16 joecdn
This riding is easily going to be won by Wendy Yuan. Emerson's defection to the Cons after the last election means that they won't be elected in this riding for some years to come. As for the NDP - I live in this riding, and I don't even know who the candidate is yet. That's a pretty big indication they haven't been very visible in the community, which is sad. Wendy Yuan was out knocking on doors a year ago, and since then she's probably done more for this riding than Emerson has. He's basically ignored his riding since becoming a Conservative cabinet minister, which just goes to show how opportunistic and self-serving he really is.
08 09 13
This will be a close race between the Liberals and the NDP. Despite Liberal fortunes sinking in BC, this will be one of the few ridings they could very well gain. Wendy Yuan signs presence is tremendous in this riding, even in the first week of the election. It will be difficult for the NDP to catch up. Yuan's ethnicity will also help her attract votes from the large Chinese population in this riding.
Could be either candidates' game, but as of now I'm leaning Liberal = win.
08 09 10 Warren
I take back my prediction since David Emerson's decision to withdraw does surprise me. Now I predict NDP.
Conservatives' strategy here is very simple. Like in Vancouver East or other places where liberals have strong chances of knocking off NDP candidates, they are going to have a fringe candidates running to make sure conservatives stay home and NDP candidates receiving enough votes to take out liberals.
My prediction will be similar to my previous one, that this will be very close since NDP candidate is far less prominent than Michael Byers who runs next door. But I do predict an NDP win and ?working class? liberals will not be able to defeat the Dion factor.
08 09 10
The Cons are out, much of the Lib vote last time was based on Emerson's name recognition and as keep the Cons from winning gambit. Since the Cons don't stand a chance, and there is no necessity to strategically vote for the Libs, the riding will go to the NDP this time.
08 09 06 Hanif
Wendy Yuan is a parachute candidate from Richmond and roundly seen as weak even among Libs. Davies has been steadily building connections in many areas of the constituency. If Yuan debates him, he'll mop the floor with her. This will be close but watch for an NDP surprise.
08 09 05 VanToria
With Emerson out, this could be a NDP pickup. Kingsway and Neighbouring Kensington are strong BC NDP turf and that could carry over to a riding that's mad at both other parties for Emerson's flip flopping. The NDP will see this as a potential and put the machine behind it.
08 09 05 MH
Why, oh, why, are some Conservative contributors to this forum so far out of touch with reality? How could anybody seriously think not only that Mr. Emerson would run again in Vancouver-Kingsway, but that he would win? He would have been creamed, and I'm sure he knew it. What does surprise me is that Mr. Harper did not line up a safe seat in the Interior for him. After all, Mr. Emerson has been easily the Conservatives' most competent cabinet minister. No matter: he is out of the race, leaving behind him a wide open fight between the NDP and the Liberals. It's too early to try to make a call.
08 09 03 Don't Tase Me, Bro!
Hey, Warren. I like the justifications for your prediction of a Tory win in Kingsway. However, it seems to all depend on David Emerson running for re-election! Well guess what? Emerson's called it quits, he's outta here. He's not even contemplating the Tory idea of running somewhere else.
This riding is socially progressive and tilts left. It'll be a showdown between the Liberals and the NDP, but I give the Liberals the advantage come Election Day.
08 09 03 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
Emerson isn't even running! He cited the ‘commute’ between Vancouver and Ottawa as the reason. Right! As is anyone will believe that. He knew as well as anyone who has an iota of common sense that he could not win in a riding that has voted over 70% for left-leaning parties. The Chinese community is not going to support the Harper government considering the current cool relations with China (the Chinese diaspera has close ties to the homeland). This will be a Liberal/NDP race and it still remains to be seen as to who has the edge.
08 09 03
Emerson is going to finish far behind the Liberal party here, it wont be close. The NDP candidate is certainly weaker than last time so the CPC might get a distant 2nd, but it looks like the Liberals will win here again, they havent lost this riding in a general election yet since it was re-created in 1997 and last time it was a fairly big margin.
08 09 01 Warren
Obviously it will be between David Emerson and Wendy Yuan.
Things have changed since he jumped over.
1. Conservatives now out poll Liberals and Vancouver Quadra has shown us that.
2. David Emerson is now our Foreign Affairs Minister
3. Chinese community is not de facto liberal base anymore, and conservatives are receiving their support more than any other time. Let us not forget that David Emerson went to China during Olympics.
I predict with a snap election, Wendy Yuan and the LIB machine will not be able to motivate out the typical disheartened liberal supporters who will stay home. And David Emerson will out-spend Wendy Yuan and Wendy Yuan's base will be around 12,000 - 15,000 votes, if David Emerson can get enough of liberal supporters to flip, around 5000 to 8000, it will be his to win. I predict a victory for David Emerson who I suspect have campaigned for a very long time already.
08 08 29 PY
Why would anyone suggest that the voters of Vancouver Kingsway won't vote Liberal? Ian Waddell isn't running this time and Wendy Yuan's probably best known as the one who originally won the riding's Liberal nomination before Paul Martin named David Emerson as the candidate instead. She'll also have her share of support from the Chinese community as well and is best positioned to use anti-Emerson/CPC sentiment in the riding to her advantage. Kudos to her for throwing her hat into the ring again...she'll ultimately be rewarded for her efforts on Election Day.
08 08 29 Suaveman
Question: why on earth would the people of this riding vote anything but NDP? Soft dippers voted in Emerson in order to keep the tories out; Tories were a solid third place; and the Lib switched no problem. It's gotta be NDP this time.
08 05 07 binriso
Well first of all, the CPC are nothing here, their 19% or so result last time is probably the absolute ceiling. In 1984 the PC vote cratered here to 18% and a distant third place and that was in the Mulroney landslide where Waddell held the riding with over 50% of the votes. Alliance never got above 30% here and the CPC way below that. This is a probable Liberal win, but I wouldnt count out the NDP, They always get above 30%, except in 2000 and they held this riding since 1962 with only a close defeat in 1974 until it was redistricted into other ridings for the election in 1988. Might be pretty close, but leaning Liberal.
08 04 26 BJ
Realistically, Emerson won't run here as a CPC candidate or anywhere else for that matter.
This riding, in it various configurations, has been Liberal for around 15 years, since 1993.
In both 2004 and 2006 both primary candidates (Emerason - Liberal, and Waddell - NDP) were caucasian candidates in a highly concentrated Chinese-Canadian riding. Chinese-Canadians are centre/centre-right on economic issues and have a strong affiliation to the federal Liberal brand.
In 2004, the federal Liberals garnered 40.4% in this riding (29% provincially overall), while the federal NDP garnered 37.3% in this riding (27% provincially overall).
With the same candidates, in 2006 the Liberals increased their vote to 43.3% (+3%) in this riding, while the NDP vote decreased to 33.6% (-4%). Those results contravened the overall BC federal results in 2006, whereby the NDP vote provincially inreased a couple of points and the Liberal vote decreased a couple of points.
During the next election, the NDP has a caucasian ‘union’ candidate while the Liberals have a Chinese-Canadian candidate.
Based upon the historical anethma by most Chinese-Canadians to unions as well as their traditional support for Chinese-Canadian candidates, this riding should continue to remain in Liberal hands.
BTW, BC federal voting trends have been consistent for over the past year with the federal Liberals in BC increasing their vote over 2006 and the federal NDP losing roughly 1/3 of the BC federal vote from 2006 (29%). Eg, Ipsos - NDP (21%), Mustel - NDP (22%), and Angus-Reid - NDP 20%.
08 02 14 A.S.
2006 was truly the year of the last fading wheeze of one federal NDP leadership candidate after another: Lorne Nystrom, Svend Robinson, and here, Ian Waddell. (Interestingly, the only comebacking NDP ex-parliamentarians elected were a pair of women: Dawn Black and Irene Mathyssen.) What happens now will depend upon whether Vancouver-Kingsway considers itself more ‘Vancouver East South’ (i.e. NDP-leaning) or ‘Vancouver South North’ (i.e. Liberal-leaning). The latter may have the upper hand; but, flip a coin, really. Emerson or not, CPC is a wild card at best.
07 11 05 MH
The only certainty in this riding is that if David Emerson has the temerity to run he will get clobbered. And so will any other Conservative candidate. The Conservatives are moribund in Vancouver, something that doesn't seem likely to change in a hurry. Also, the last time that Vancouver Kingsway elected a Tory was in 1958, when John Browne won it by a mere 200 votes. The voters here resisted the Mulroney landslide in 1984. That said, both the Liberals and the NDP have a shot at the seat, but given the current weakness of the Grits, the NDP seems to have a slight edge.
07 10 15 King of Kensington
Given the weakness of the Dion Liberals, this riding is a top target for the NDP. Don Davies seems like a decent candidate while the woman running for the Liberals is by most accounts very weak. Still Kerry Jang, a Chinese Canadian professor at UBC, may have been a better choice in this heavily Chinese riding.
I really doubt Emerson wants to humiliate himself by running again. He can go back to the corporate world and maybe Harper will appoint him to the Senate someday. The Conservatives are of course would never take this riding unless hell freezes over.
07 09 22 Pat Gibbons
There are three good reasons some Liberal supporters might swing NDP here. First, the Liberal national office parachuted Emerson in as part of the BC ‘dream team’ with Dosanjh--only to have Emerson defect. Second, after several electoral campaigns where vote splitting was emphasized, NDP candidates have won many seats--so much for a NDP vote=voting 4 Satan. Finally, the last time I looked out my window Kingsway was still in Vancouver and BC: people out here often vote based on snark and resentment. What better way to thumb off both the Liberals (parachuted candidate) and Tories (floor-crossing betrayor)?
07 06 27 J.Mc.
While I agree that this riding will likely not go conservative, and that the bulk of the Emerson voters will continue to vote Liberal, an NDP victory is conceivable. The last few elections have been fairly close, so it is possible that the combination of the few votes Emerson will take with him to the Tories on the basis of personal loyalty plus the few Liberals who may vote NDP on the floor-crossing issue (there will be a few - not all voters think as rationally as the Poli-Sci types who frequent this website) may be enough to put the NDP over the top to a narrow victory. Definitely too close to call right now, though.
07 06 06 British Columbian
The idea that people who voted for Emerson last time will vote NDP next time because they are upset with the switch is absolutely ridiculous. Instead of looking at the situation and coming up with a prediction, its as if Dippers see that they came close in 2004 (not so much in 2006), get excited, make an NDP prediction, and fill in a bunch of illogical dribble justify the prediction. The unlikely thought processes cited that would lead former Emerson voters to vote NDP are obvious partisan fabrications.
I fail to understand why voters who are upset at Emerson would punish the Liberals. Liberal-Emerson voters won't vote NDP because they are angry about the switch; they aren?t mad at the Liberals, they're mad at Emerson. No former Emerson voter will vote NDP because they believe an NDP MP is less likely to cross the floor; Yuan will be running a campaign slamming Emerson for the switch, so there is no danger of her crossing the floor. The switches of Dave Haggard, Ujjal Dosanjh and Shirley Chan, not to mention the high profile Bob Rae in Ontario, are far from forgotten in BC. Given these relatively recent NDP defections, I doubt voters will make the distinction between party switchers and floor crossers and conclude that an NDP MP is less likely to cross the floor than Liberals. That is obviously just a weak NDP sales pitch that nobody is going to consider seriously. Angry former Emerson supporters are more likely to vote Liberal in an attempt to punish and humiliate Emerson by showing continued support for the party, and not the man.
In order to win, the NDP needs to pick up votes from somewhere. They are behind in the polls BC, both provincially and federally. Only one poll from the last 2 months places the Federal NDP even within 7% of the Federal Liberals (See:, and this lone poll shows a 1% improvement for both parties over the 2006 result, meaning no net gain for either party. Unless the polls turn around, the NDP is not going to win more votes in Kingsway net of increased support for the party province-wide.
Can anyone honestly believe that people who voted for a big business executive will now vote NDP? People who voted for Emerson were either solid Liberal voters or Liberal-Conservative swing voters who were impressed with his business credentials. People don?t vote for the former CEO of a major forestry corporation and then vote for a socialist. If anything, left-leaning or green Liberals who voted NDP instead of for the former forestry executive will vote Liberal next time.
The Greens only won 1,300 votes in 2006, so the NDP can?t expect to steal many of those. People who voted for Kanman Wong will certainly not be voting NDP; if anything, Chinese voters who wanted to support a fellow Chinese Canadian voted Conservative in 2006 and will vote for Yuan next time. The NDP provincial election machine that won back the Kingsway and Kensington provincial ridings in 2005 were not even able to even maintain Waddell?s support in 2006, while the Liberals picked up 2,800 more votes. Besides, Don Davies is nowhere near as popular as Ian Waddell, nor does he have the experience or profile that was so often cited in 2004 and 2006 NDP, which of course turned out to be incorrect.
The NDP have a 4,500-vote deficit and Dippers are simply spinning reality to justify their NDP predictions. They won?t be winning former Emerson votes, Conservative votes, or Green votes. The Liberals can capitalize on the anti-Emerson sentiment, benefit from the Green alliance, and win ethnic Chinese voters in a riding with such a significant Chinese population. And I think that everyone agrees that Emerson is toast; this is not a Conservative riding, and former Emerson voters are furious. Not only is Yuan an attractive candidate, but she is also running for the strongest federal party in the riding. The Liberals will take this one back.
07 05 24 Chris L
The NDP have always had a close race with the Liberals in this riding. The NDP has strong BCNDP support here and with the famous Emerson doing what he did and getting major negative publicity for it, this riding is going straight to NDP no matter how good the Liberal candidate is and conservatives will not be making $1.50 from this riding.
07 05 08 British Columbian
Wendy Yuan, a well- educated candidate with a successful international business career, is exactly what the Liberals need to hold the riding. She is not only the perfect candidate to attract the same fiscally-conservative voters that elected Emerson in the past, but also a role model for the Chinese-Canadians, who compose a significant proportion of the population.
Steve L. contradicts himself when he claims ‘Emerson will be lucky to get 10,000 votes’ and then that Liberal-Conservative vote splitting will leave the NDP ‘unharmed,’ concluding that they will therefore win the riding.
Assuming Emerson is ‘lucky’ and wins 10,000 votes, he only wins 1,300 more votes than the previous Tory candidate. If the ‘Liberal-Conservative’ vote split gives the Tories that 1,300, then the Liberals would still win 2,200 more votes than the ‘unharmed’ NDP. The NDP needs to do more than hold it’s current vote share to win this riding; they lost by over 4,500 last time, and they aren’t going to win many former Emerson votes. David Emerson, former CEO of Canfor, is a business executive, and the people who voted for him were either die-hard Liberals or fiscal conservative swing voters who would never vote NDP. The NDP could only win the riding if Emerson wins significantly MORE than 10,000 votes. If, as he says, the conservatives still win less than 10,000, then there actually will not have been any significant vote splitting at all. Clearly Steve’s conclusion has been influenced by faulty logic.
The NDP will not steal votes from the Liberals either. As Harry pointed out, the NDP are way down in BC. In the 2006 election, the Liberals won 27.6% of the vote in BC, and the NDP won 28.6%. A May 3rd Ipsos-Reid poll of BC places the Liberals at 32 (+ 4%, but virtually unchanged within MoE) and the NDP at 15 (-14%, YIKES!).
Emerson will lose virtually all of the personal support he had in the past two elections. Previous supporters will not follow him to the Conservatives: those that for the candidate were all betrayed, and the rest just voted for the party. If he runs here, he will place a distant third and will indeed be lucky to win 10,000 votes.
The Liberals will hold the riding in the next election, and this time, may even hold it after the election.
07 04 16 any way
Kevin Potvin had won the Green Party nomination for Vancouver-Kingsway, but last weekend there was a move to discredit Potvin as being ‘Pro 911’, and May announced Potvin's candidacy at the SAME press conference that she and Dion announced a non-aggression pact between Liberals and Greens.
May didn't consult with the members of her party, she just let Potvin drop from her roster in a wave of dubious media attention. Potvin is immersed in East Vancouver's Indie Media scene, owns a small magazine shop, teaches courses part-time, writes for The Courier, and is very active in our local community. Potvin would have been the best candidate for the job, but he was sold off in a back room deal last weekend.
07 04 15 Steve L.
David Emerson will be lucky if he can get more than 10000 votes here. but i think most of the vote-splitting will occur within the Liberal-Conservative divide, leaving the NDP unharmed.
07 04 12 Brian Appel
I think the person who predicted a Green victory must be smoking some of BC's finest. The only Green candidate who could potentially win here might be David Suzuki, but other than that the fight here is between the Liberals and the NDP. I just don't see the Greens picking up the thousands of votes that would be needed to win here. In this largely-Asian riding, Vancouver Kingsway may actually be a good fit for Yuan's slightly right-of-centre views. Easy Liberal win for Wendy.
07 04 12 rodney
The Liberal's are weak enough that this should be an NDP lock. The Conservatives have never done well here, but might siphon off enough Liberal votes that it'll make it really easy NDP territory. The Green's might have some influence, and will do better than last time but I can't see them getting very far.
07 04 10
There is the highest levels of protest voting here, with so many open wounds with what Emerson did. Liberals are unhappy with unknown candidate who in 2004 stepped aside for Emerson. Conservatives will get fewer votes because of flip flop, and without Emerson to vote for. NDP selected a Teamsters Union lawyer when NDP voters are cool to union bosses.
Most importantly, the Green candidate, a long-time community paper columnist, prominent small business person, known civic campaigner who got 11,000 votes, has a bigger public profile than any other candidate in the riding, maybe the only riding in Canada where this is the case.
07 04 07 Harry
Isn't even going to be close. Riding is predominantly Chinese, and Sophia Leung, former no-name Liberal MP did better than star David Emerson. Wendy Yuan is a more energetic, hardworking version of Sophia Leung. The Tories are hated here. Absolutely despised. And the NDP is weaker than it has been in a long, long time.
07 04 06 J.F. Breton
Manifestement, les Conservateurs n'ont pas de chance ici, encore moins avec Emerson le transfuge. Ceci étant dit, il y aura tout de même un certain transfert de vote entre le PCC et le PLC. Je compte donc sur une victoire du NPD se faufilant entre le PCC et le PLC.
07 04 01
I think this one will go NDP, depending on how well they do nationally. The Conservatives do not have much of a chance here, Emerson or not. The Liberals don't have a lousy candidate. I think she probably chose the wrong riding to run in as she is pro-lifer in the midst of liberal Vancouver!
07 03 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
A riding that will feature a lot of saber rattling but there is no clear front runner yet. Emerson & the Conservatives will claim they can keep this riding, but they haven't a prayer. This is a left-leaning riding and the Liberals and NDP will be fighting over the mess left after the floor crossing. We say it will probably go (stay) Liberal but honestly it's too early for an accurate prediction.
07 03 21 M. Lunn
David Emerson is toast if he runs here and will get clobbered coming in third. The question is whether this goes Liberal or NDP. Going Liberal would get someone who might possibly be in government, but considering the amount of floor crossing between the two parties, voting NDP would at ensure the MP elected doesn't cross the floor (NDP almost never has floor crossers).
07 03 21 Jack Cox
Not even close here, Emerson is going to be thrown out on his butt by everyone here. I don't think people are ever going to forget what Emerson did to them. He will most certainly lose.
07 03 20 Brian Appel
This is going to be a really interesting race. The Liberals have been waiting since Emerson crossed the floor to run against him in an election. And the NDP have come so close twice before to winning the seat. Wendy Yuan is running for the Liberals and I think she'll take the seat, whether or not Emerson decides to run under the Conservative banner.

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