| ||07 10 12
|Another huge win for Mr. Ruprecht, the quiet giant just shrugged off the taunts and jeers of his rivals. the ndp have been trying very hard to win something in Davenport, to no avail, save maybe a residence association or two, this i'm sure took a lot of wind out of the ndp, now their spirits are down, and they are prolly wondering if there are just wasting their own time with these residence associations. Mario Silva will not lose, so now they have to wait 3 years or so to try and win a council seat.|
| ||07 10 08
|There is a huge NDP surge here. It will be close, but I think that Tony Ruprecht was caught off guard by how strong the NDP candidate is. Tony has not had to run a real campaign in years and is out of practice when it comes to real competition.|
| ||07 10 08
||King of Kensington|
|Binriso: there is a reason why a lot more people predicted an NDP victory in '99 than in '03. In '99 it was an open race between Tony Silipo (who represented the former provincial riding of Dovercourt) and Tony Ruprecht (who had represented Parkdale). Davenport included much more of Silipo's turf than Ruprecht's turf. In '03 Ruprecht had the advantage of incumbency and did not have an opponent of the same calibre of Silipo, in addition there was a rising Liberal tide province-wide.|
This time I expect Ruprecht to hang on but by a greatly reduced margin. Davenport is right between Parkdale-High Park and York South-Weston where the NDP won in byelections. Peter Ferreira is apparently a very strong candidate and the NDP could as much as 40% - not enough to win but they will certainly be competitive and could take it in the future.
| ||07 10 06
|You know, over the past 2 elections on this site, most people have predicted an NDP win (more in 99 but still alot in 03) really it hasn’t been very close at all. Redistribution will help the NDP here, but i think they have to get over 40% to win and I don’t see it happening. Liberal win, over 45% if not 50.|
| ||07 10 06
|Anyone who thinks Tony Ruprecht will lose is dreaming in Technicolour. The man has been around longer than Moses! He knows his constit. As any politico will tell you 2 types exist -Good Ministers and Good Constit MPP's and never the twain shall meet. Tony is the consumete good Constit MPP and has likely kissed more babies and eaten more rubber chicken then any sane person would ever want to! The only way Tony loses this seat when he joins the great retirement home in the sky. At QP in the 80's we had a nickname for Tony which I will not provide as I am sure the moderators will edit it out!|
Editor Note: We know what it is and no we won’t edit it out! :)
| ||07 10 06
|Anyone who thinks Tony Ruprecht will lose is dreaming in Technicolour. The man has been around longer than Moses! He knows his constit. As any politico will tell you 2 types exist -Good Ministers and Good Constit MPP's and never the twain shall meet. Tony is the consummate good Constit MPP and has likely kissed more babies and eaten more rubber chicken then any sane person would ever want to! The only way Tony loses this seat when he joins the great retirement home in the sky|
| ||07 10 04
|If the Green party does pick up that many votes in Davenport, then Mr. Burns (i mean, Ruprecht) will win. The Greens take from all parties but the NDP is the only opposition party in Davenport that could take it from the Liberals. Strategic voting all over again.|
| ||07 10 03
|Less that I think the greens would win and more that I think the greens will make a major impact. I say that DeJong picks up a lot of votes, due to the high amount of support this election for the greens.|
| ||07 10 03
|This is probably, one of the safest Liberal seats in Toronto. Tony Ruprecht has been an MPP since 1981. Federally this seat has been Liberal since I think '35. So, it's silly to go with anyone else but the Liberals.|
| ||07 10 02
||King of Kensington|
|Ken while Davenport is the most heavily Portuguese riding in Canada the Portuguese are not anywhere close to a majority of the population and they actually make up a smaller percentage of the electorate - a pollster told me in a lot of Portuguese households the women don't vote (their husbands cast the ‘family’ vote). Still having a candidate from the Portuguese community helps the NDP. Ruprecht is akin to the Richard Daley machine in Chicago and is just about the most disliked MPP at Queen's Park but this riding has a strong Liberal tradition.|
I expect this to stay Liberal but the NDP will come close and could take it if they have a really good night.
| ||07 10 02
|Close NDP win forecast here, as people are tiring of Ruprecht and, yes, Ferreira appeals to the Portugese vote (the majority of the riding). Interesting thing about the growing Vietnamese population: they don't really vote much. Their local newspaper refused to cover all candidates' debates saying they don't like to get involved in politics. A source close to that community says there are two tiers of Vietnamese - a few really rich lawyers, doctors and such - and a lot of very very poor people. And we all know poor people do not vote? Or do they - will be interesting to see if turnout is better than 49% last time.|
| ||07 10 01
|I have to echo earlier comments that i have seen a growing NDP presence in the riding as well as conservative signs...driving down symington everyday, i think i have seen some liberal signs disappear from lawns. Also, did anybody see the goldhawk all candidates debate on tv? Ruprect didn't show and Fereria was stealing everybody's show. De jong made the most sense to me, and the tory guy seemed quite credible. All of this said...i realize the liberals have a big lead here, so i believe i will be voting NDP to ward of a liberal majority.|
| ||07 09 29
|i have vietnamese neighbours on one side, portuguese on the other. they both have ruprecht signs up, and on the portuguese house it was put up without permission (i assume the same applies to the vietnamese as nobody speaks english). There are no signs from the other candidates on our block. None of the vietnamese are eligible to vote. Only the daughter in the Portuguese house is eligible and she says she is voting NDP. It seems signs really don't matter in Davenport. the ndp has a chance here if they can hold on to their core vote and pick up enough Portuguese votes which it seems they will. On the other hand, with the confusion around the referendum question and cynicism about politicians in general, it is possible that voter turn-out will be lower, which almost always benefits the incumbent. This may become one of the races to watch...still TCTC...|
| ||07 09 29
|I think that Nick J Boragina may be on to something. There are more PC signs than the last election north of Bloor in the west. Check out streets like Symington. |
There are also streets north of St Clair & Rogers that have more Tory signs than NDP but less than the Liberal numbers. It's not all rentals either. They don't have the numbers elsewhere in the riding and signs aren't votes, I know, but still...I am not sure what this means for the race between the Liberals and NDP. Are they skimming Liberal voters or is it a case of having a second, as Now Magazine put it, ‘Portuguese son’ running in the neighbourhood? I do agree that Green votes can be bled from right wing types who don't like faith based school funding as well as those on the left.
In an aside, so far I've had 3 pieces of literature from the Liberals (with 2 stickies saying ‘sorry I missed you, Tony’), one visit from the Tory candidate and nothing from either the Greens or surprisingly the NDP. Still looks like the Liberals win to me.
| ||07 10 29
|Re: Green Party - it is not a question whether DeJong will pick up votes - he will and he may even save his deposit!|
The sad part is that the GP strategy stinks. DeJong should be running in a seat he has a chance of winning (and surprisingly there are a few of those)- but this is not one of them.
| ||07 09 29
|This will be very close but I think Peter Ferreira, who's been gaining momentum, will edge out Tony Ruprecht. Frank deJong, ran in Parkdale High Park last year and didn't have the effect everyone is predicting of peeling off NDP votes. In fact, I believe that Green voters helped DiNovo win by such a large margin. Under first past the post, Green Party supporters who are more committed to the environmental and socially progressive planks of the Green Party platform rather than the Libertarian planks, haven't much choice but to vote NDP. For example, only the Greens and the NDP are anti-nuclear energy. I think many Green supporters will vote for MMP and Peter Ferreira.|
On the subject of soft NDP vote voting Liberal to ensure a Liberal government. I think that's becoming a non-issue, as it becomes increasingly apparent that John Tory has no chance of becoming Premier. Most pundits are predicting a reduced Liberal majority. So the ‘progressive’ vote should go to the NDP.
I think this election will come down to the Portuguese vote. Will the Portuguese continue to support the Liberal Party as most have since arriving in the 60's & 70's? I see a lot of Peter Ferreira signs on the lawns of Portuguese households, but I also see a few Ruprecht signs on the lawns of Portuguese households. How will their children vote? In terms of the Portuguese vote, who are they less willing to forgive, Bob Rae or Mike Harris? If the latter, then the Portuguese vote will hardly be affected by running two Portuguese candidates, not to mention Peter Ferreira is a very high profile candidate in the Portuguese community.
Peter Ferreira by a hair, since Tony Ruprecht's got none to play with :). Seriously, Peter Ferreira by 1000 votes.
| ||07 09 28
|i agree with boragina, the pc's will likely pick up votes here. i disagree with almost everyone else that the greens will only take votes from the ndp. the greens will take votes from every party, not equally, but not exclusively from the left either, especially with the neo-conservative platform i just read. Some anti-faith-based schools-tories may go green as a alternative. the green vote will increase at the expense of everyone and they may even bring people out to the ballot that have never voted before. i do see a bit of a collapse in the liberal vote, with many traditional liberals choosing to stay home rather than vote for anyone else. the NDP is definitely going to increase its vote-count as well. TCTC...which in davenport is refreshing. having a backbench government MPP hasn't helped the riding at all, perhaps if this riding goes to the opposition it will finally get the funds and attention it needs (if only because the liberals will want it back and pour money into it). Davenport has been taken for granted for too long. That said, the libs may win again, but by much less than usual.|
| ||07 09 27
|Kind of surprised that no Greens came on here and predicted a win for Frank. I think that he'll be in 4th this time with around 10%. Peeling off enough NDPers to make the Liberal victory kind of comfortable i guess.|
| ||07 09 27
|There's an interesting article about the Davenport campaign in today's copy of Now about the NDP candidate Peter Ferreira. What makes it interesting is the claim that he has support in the poorer northern sections of the riding where the NDP vote is weak. I don't have enough feel for the community-level dynamics to know if the trends are truly shifting, but everyone I talk to says that Ruprecht is vulnerable|
| ||07 09 27
||Nick J Boragina|
|Okay, I’m not predicting a PC win here, but I would like to submit some very important information. The PC candidate here is running seriously, but the last PC candidate ‘gave up’ halfway though the last election. As we saw with Mr. Blackburn on the federal stage, the actions of losing candidates can sometimes matter quite a bit. Keep an eye on PC numbers here, they might scrape the top off the Liberal vote.|
| ||07 09 22
|I am seeing the start of a healthy NDP surge here. Lots of NDP signs, many Lib signs removed by households that used to blindly support Ruprecht. About the comment: ?i don't buy that Adam Giambrone has alienated the community to the extent some say he has.? Ummm yes he has angered voters a LOT (just ask any residents around Lansdowne Avenue). Plus he has been invisible on the NDP campaign for the past week. Biggest issues? Crime, Drugs, Prostitution + Taxes + poverty in its many forms. NDP getting stronger, Libs getting weaker. PC and Greens are nowhere (and will stay there).|
| ||07 09 21
|Tony Ruprecht should have no difficulty in winning this. The Greens, by running their leader here, have destroyed whatever slim chance the NDP had of beating the Liberals. And, as in most of the old city of Toronto, the PCs are too feeble for words. Antonio Garcia will very probably lose his deposit and may even finish behind Frank de Jong.|
| ||07 09 21
|I think the ndp has the best shot in years. last provincial election, Berger made major organizing in-roads, and also -- for the first time in many, many elections -- wasn't afraid to take on Ruprecht's pathetic and dirty record. I worked a different campaign but we got GREAT feedback about some of the innovating organizing that campaign was doing. The team working for Ferreira is young and skilled and excited and were part of several of those recent NDP by-election wins. |
In the last provincial election, the ndp was screwed by strategic voting and the conservative threat...this time, things have changed. in a riding where there is a strong left voting population, John Tory's 'less than terrifying', Red Tory stripes are going to mean those folks feel less inclined to swing LIberal. Probably the biggest problem for the NDP in this riding has more to do with the fact that candidates like Bravo have NOT come through for the NDP here. that campaign in particular functions quite independently and Bravo has actually avoided references to her NDP roots. Many believe she is actually distancing herself and her political aspirations are such that she is moving closer to the Liberals. She has also really pissed of the unions and Miller. not sure she would have a lot of support in running for the ndp nomination. also i don't buy that Adam Giambrone has alienated the community to the extent some say he has. seems pretty darn popular to me. and he seems to be much tighter with the current provincial campaign. Ferreira is a great candidate...Ruprecht's days may be over. fingers crossed.
| ||07 09 14
|The Liberals will keep this one and if anyone is dreaming of an NDP surge, they are sadly mistaken, but that is not the main reason why I am writing.|
For a while I have looked at the Green Party with sympathy, but for the life of me I can not understand who is (mis)advising them on strategy. This must be the worst possible riding for de Jong to run in - socially conservative and fiscally left wing, with a Liberal voting tradition - even in Trinity Spadina or Willowdale he would stand a better chance!
If the Green Party is serious about doing something and influencing policy (as opposed to being a protest movement), they HAVE to win some seats. The German Green Party was only effective once they made the government. GP has a perfect pole position since the environment is a big concern with a large cross section of the voters, including those from all three major parties and they could capitalize on that. In theory they are advocating the best public school model (although implementing it may not be as easy) and give a nice balance between fiscal conservatism and social responsibility that should bring red tories, mainstream liberals and affluent NDP voters their way.
And yet time after time they are unfocused and lacking drive to actually win one or two seats and make their voices heard in the legislature. I am writing this with the best possible intentions of making them sit up and rethink their strategy. They should look hard at some environmental NGOs in the province (such as the Summerhill Group and Greensaver) who are effectively pushing their programs through existing channels, without compromising their core values!
| ||07 09 13
||J. Kenneth Yurchuk|
|I think the NDP will make major inroads here. Maybe not enough to win, though stranger things have happened. Ruprecht must be tiring even the most dedicated of Liberal voters by now. If the Dippers can bring their profile up a few notches, this is a riding where they have a chance.|
| ||07 09 11
|Ruprecht will win again. He's an old school ward heeler with a good organization. He's always holding community meetings to keep himself in peoples minds and makes them believe (erroneously IMHO) that he's doing something for them.|
Running Peter Ferreira, even though is from out of neighbourhood, means that the NDP will do better than they did federally, but I don't see him having name recognition. The Peel Board means nothing here. The NDP should have put up Bravo. She came very close again to beating Palacio in her 2nd time running. She's active in the community and has name recognition in the northern half of the riding. That's in the half of the riding where the provincial Liberals are stronger. Hell, I voted for her and I had never voted for an NDPer in my life. I also think a well-spoken intelligent foreign-born female candidate would appeal to the new younger boho residents in the south of the riding.
Conservatives have no hope and as others have said Frank de Jong's decision to run on an anti-Catholic school funding in this riding is just plain batty.
| ||07 09 10
|I'd like to see the conservatives take it, but they will not even crack 3,000 votes. I didn't even know Frank de Jong was the Green Party leader until now and I follow religiously, meaning others are unlikely to know, so he doesn't stand a chance. NDP may make a push and with an infamous Portuguese last name like Ferreira (which is mine too) he may get the votes of the portuguese community. Now, the liberals will still take this no problem and I mean this with no offense to anyone but its because many immigrants like my parents do not know any better. They simply vote for the name they recognize which is always the liberal candidate. My mom tells me she only votes for the name she recognizes and I can imagine many other portuguese, italian and chinese elders for example, doing the same thing. Since liberal signs are the ones that stand out the most in this riding, its likely Ruprecht will win on the same basis. Personally for the most part of this riding, I've noticed that the leaders and what each party has to offer has little influence on the voters decisions, it is simply based on who they recognize, which is unfortunate but will keep Ruprechts job alive. The only hope is if the Ferreira name on the NDP signs gets more attention. I predict a liberal victory but a better than usual result for the NDP|
| ||07 09 08
|I wish the NDP would take this riding--really, I do. But the stars just haven't aligned--yet.|
The provincial NDP is (finally) starting to recover from the Rae days. The riding is continuously becoming more and more open to the NDP and resistant to the ethnocentric Liberal tactics that have held the riding, mostly due to the old core of Portuguese and Italian voters slowly dying off or moving to the suburbs. The riding is continuing to acquire chunks of Marchese's Trinity-Spadina, and recent byelection victories for the NDP bode well for their future.
But not 2007. Not quite yet. These are long-term processes, and they simply haven't reached fruition: the city has to grow a bit more (meaning the riding moves further Southeast), the provincial NDP has to fully recover from Rae, and--at the risk of sounding incredibly crass--a few more retirees have to die before this riding becomes viable for the NDP.
The only surer thing than a Liberal victory is that the PC candidate will be lucky to win back his deposit.
| ||07 09 08
|Hate to admit it but odious MPP Ruprecht again. He keeps a presence by giving plaques wherever he can and seeming to be supportive of every side of every issue, as long as it gets votes. Conservatives have zero chance. The NDP will be hurt by its past party president and now city councillor Adam Giambrone, whose non-consultative, dictatorial style has alienated a large block of local residents. The Green Party's de Jong hasn't a prayer of getting elected in this large majority immigrant riding, who are loathe to challenge any sytatus quo. Voter apathy will be even worse than the 50% turnout last election. Sad, but likely.|
| ||07 09 04
|The leader of the so-called Green Party must be nuts. He is trying to create a profile for himself as the only party leader wanting to abolish Catholics schools and he decides to run in Davenport of all places - a HEAVILY Portuguese, Italian and Latin American riding that may have one of the highest proportions of kids in Catholic schools in the whole province. Why doesn't he just run in Thornhill on a pro-Hamas platform???|
Let's face it Ruprecht is a joke and an embarrassment. More than a few Liberals would like to see...(expletive deleted). The NDP in the meantime has Peter Ferreira who was a bigwig with the separate school board and has a very high profile in the Portuguese community.
| ||07 09 03
|More predicting the green party will be a major factor in this riding ,as its not ever actually been close to electing a green mp or mpp before. |
When looking at some other green leaders election runs , the strong showing by federal green leader Elizabeth May in the london north centre by-election . shows that the greens can win over urban voters at the expense of the ndp.
It will be interesting to see if Ontario green leader Frank de Jong can win over local voters . its a little early to say and he might of not picked the best riding to run in .
| ||07 08 31
|Too close to call. The victory by the NDP in York South-Weston is a harbinger of what could happen in Davenport. Both ridings are working class, immigrant ridings that see others benefit, while their families continue to struggle. Ruprecht is a smart campaigner though, far better than Laura Albanese in YSW. Ruprecht is a survivor and Peter Ferreira needs to match his tenacity. By the 2-week mark, we should know if the NDP west-end resurgence will creep into Davenport.|
| ||07 08 16
|Perks was too yuppie-hifalutin for a seat like this--that's why he fell a little short of his '04 predecessor candidate Rui Pires. As Ruprecht has known and used to his advantage, ethno-cultural machine politics matters, no matter how dubious, odious, etc. The NDP's *starting* to learn--though perhaps not hard (or dirty) enough, judging by the double-barrelled municipal losses of Alejandra Bravo. Then again, with the Cuban-vacation antics and all, together with the McGuinty regime's tendency to hold him at crinkled-nose arm's length, maybe the inexplicably unsinkable Ruprecht *has* hit his Waterloo-point at last--and remember that he fought his last provincial election before the Pires/Perks federal NDP breakthrough. The climate's changed, and following byelection gains this is the next logical non-incumbent Toronto seat on the NDP hit list--and this time, it really *could* be Ruprecht defeating himself. Yeah, yeah, I know they said that before, but...|
| ||07 08 01
|As much as I hate to say it, Liberals in a walk. I thought Gord Perks had a shot federally last time for the NDP and he got buried even with the Liberals imploding elsewhere. While I want them gone, the Liberals will hold this one.|
| ||07 06 25
|I appreciate the correction King, I was under the impression she was Portuguese. Sorry about the flub!|
My prediction is based much more on optimistism, If Davenport becomes a targeted riding for the NDP (give strong resources, both money and manpower) the NDP can improve results from last election, if they run a well put together campaign and the liberal vote in the old city of Toronto breaks apart or collapse's. Davenport looks like a good victory.
The Liberals are worried about losing those Urban core ridings in Ontario's marjor cities (all you have to do is look at the policy announcements that were made, urban transit and the environment). growing.
| ||07 06 24
|The NDP apparently has lined up the perfect candidate to run in Davenport. He is Peter Ferreira (no relation to Paul). He is a Portuguese former separate school trustee who has deep roots in the Portuguese community and also speaks fluent Spanish. Given the NDP wins in nearby Parkdale-High Park and in York South-Weston, this is clearly the lowest hanging fruit for the NDP in all of Toronto. Ruprecht's core support (Eastern Europeans with suspicious personal histories between 1939 and 1945) are dying off at a very rapid rate and the fact that Ruprecht spends most of his time in Cuba and not doing anything for the riding doesn't help him either. I suspect that a lot of Liberals would be privately relieved if he lost so that they no longer have to endure the embarrassment of having him in their ranks.|
| ||07 06 18
|Too close to call. This is a fairly left-wing riding although not as much so as the ridings on the other side of the CPR tracks. Nonetheless, the NDP pickup in York South-Weston has shown that the Liberals are especially vulnerable in the inner-city ridings. Frank de Jong is no factor as this isn't a real environmentalist riding anyway, and the PC's may make slight gains with a Red Tory at the helm (possibly helping the NDP) although they will still finish 3rd. It will be a race between the Liberals and NDP and Tony Ruprecht has a fight ahead, although he cannot be ruled out.|
| ||07 06 08
||King of Kensington|
|Adam - Alejandra Bravo is Chilean not Portuguese. There is also a large Latino community in the riding. But anyway she did extremely well in the part of Toronto where Liberal Party Richard Daley-style machine politics is most powerful in the last municipal race. |
Anyway the Liberal Party has strong brand appeal in Davenport but it appears that the NDP is gaining ground in Davenport. It should be competitive in the fall.
| ||07 06 04
|I Agree with the king, If a recognizable and strong Portuguese candidate like Alejandra decides to run, I think Tony will be in for a very tough race. She is known now for running twice in the more Liberal friendly northern part of the riding so there is name recognition. Lets also take into consideration that the Councillor in ward 18 is Adam Giambrone, former federal NDP party president and young star in mayor David Millers team. Look for the NDP to be pushing for him to put his name out there in support of whomever is nominated. Liberal support is down across the Province, A more centrist Tory (in the lead according to environics), The NDP targeting Urban ridings (TO, Ottawa Centre, London-Fanshawe, Windsor) the liberals need to be scared. Minority Government predicted. This riding will be TCTC if the NDP thinks and nominates someone like Ms Bravo.|
| ||07 06 02
||King of Kensington|
|The NDP has long underestimated Tony Ruprecht, as they painfully learned when Ruprecht trounced Tony Silipo in '99. Still this isn't a guaranteed Liberal victory and there is a good possibility that the NDP can pick this up, given that the NDP has gone up in the polls and the byelection victories in Parkdale-High Park and York South-Weston. I have heard that Alejandra Bravo may run, who would be a fantastic candidate, especially since her political roots are in the more big-L Liberal Ward 17 part of the riding. For now, it's TCTC.|
BTW Frank DeJong has no profile and will have no impact on the race. Besides, DeJong is on the rightwing of the Green Party and isn't necessarily going to be taking mosty NDP votes.
| ||07 05 04
|Liberal hold. |
1) Tony Ruprecht has held this seat without interuption since 1981. At the time he was elected, he was actually the only Liberal MPP from Toronto. How times have changed... Now Toronto is a Liberal bastion federally and provincially. While Ruprecht is certainly an odd duck, he's an odd duck who works his riding hard and who held his seat in NDP and Tory sweeps of the province.
2) In the last election, Ruprecht received almost 60% of the vote, more than double that of the NDP candidate.
3) More tellingly, in the 1999 ?Battle of the Tonys?, Ruprecht defeated NDP incumbent Tony Silipo soundly, taking 50% of the vote to Silipo's 31%. This was a serious test of Ruprecht's machinery and showed just how powerful and entrenched an organization he possesses.
4) The NDP made major victories in both the Parkdale-High Park by-election and the York South-Weston by-elections that neighbour Davenport. Certainly that gives me pause in my claim that the Liberal will win hands down. But upon reflection, both election victories seem very different than this general election campaign. In the by-elections, popular Liberal incumbents stepped down and were replaced by lower-profile candidates. The NDP was able to focus all of their organization into a single point, rather than the diffusion that comes with the general election. And, as by-elections, they are about local issues and candidates, not questions of government formation and platform. On the balance of probabilities, I think the Liberals actually stand a better chance of winning back those two seats in a general election, than the NDP stands of picking up Davenport.
6) Green Party leader Frank De Jong will be running here in the general election. This helps Ruprecht considerably. In 2003, De Jong ran against Ernie Eves and stole enough votes from the NDP to finish in third. De Jong's higher profile as a party leader should assisting him in drawing anti-government protest votes away from the NDP again. However, the Ontario Green Party is not the federal party of Elizabeth May. Its not taken seriously by the media or the political establishment, and will require at least one more election cycle before it has the potential to win a seat.
| ||07 05 03
|In light of the NDP's recent string of nearby byelection victories, Davenport is probably one of their likeliest pickups in 2007. Still, Ruprecht will have the advantage of incumbency if he re-offers. TCTC.|