Prediction Changed
12:02 PM 28/07/2007

Election Prediction Project

Don Valley East
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Progressive Conservative
Family Coalition

Don Valley East (100%)
Hon David Caplan

2003 Result (redistributed):

Authorized by the CFO of David Caplan campaign.

07 10 01 BPetrie
‘Spillover’ from Don Valley West? Tory is losing Don Valley West! He is being out signed and out campaigned on the ground. If anything, Tories would be pulling workers from Don Valley East, where the chances of sinking Caplan are nil, and putting them into the real battle. Don Valley West is not spilling over into Don Valley East. If anything, Don Valley East is spilling over to Don Valley West.
07 09 27 Nick J Boragina
Why should Don Valley West have spill over here? And not in Eglinton-Lawrence, Willowdale, or St.Pauls? Other ridings that border Don Valley West. Is it because this riding also happens to have ‘Don Valley’ in it’s name? If so that’s one ridiculous reason to predict a PC victory here. The Tories might do well here based on demographics and history, but they wont win, and even if they do, it will have nothing to do with the Don Valley.
07 09 17 Pete B.
Even though I am predicting a Tory win in DVW, there will be little spillover and Caplan is going to be reelected. Put another way, if Liberals lose ridings like DVE, then they may not even finish as the official opposition.
07 09 13 Japhtastic
sometimes i wonder who actually posts messages in here. at times it feels like there are just political staff expounding their wisdom or taking their shots. case in point? anyone who thinks that a tory spillover or the word lottogate is going to hurt david caplan. that ain't expounding political wisdom. that's trite. i'll give everyone who suggested a tory victory here a nickel for every door they knock on in don valley east where unprompted anyone uses the word lottogate. but i'll take it back if at the same time the resident says ‘but we know it was the conservatives fault’. heck, i'll even go with you and look like an additional volunteer or something. why? just to smirk when you realize you have no idea what you're talking about. david caplan is going to win this riding. you're crazy if you pretend otherwise.
07 09 13 MH
PC supporters are counting on a blue spillover from Don Valley West. Don't count on it. The religious-funding issue means that John Tory will have his hands full trying to win in DVW, so that PC resources will have to be concentrated there. This suggests that Angela Kennedy and her team will have to win this on their own, and in that case the smart money has to be on David Caplan.
07 09 09 Tory DVEer
Lottogate Caplin is going to lose this riding.
07 09 05 A.S.
Funny how Team Tory's banking on school trustees in this part of town (Kennedy, Crawford, Del Grande)--I wouldn't rule Angela Kennedy out (she'll *definitely* do better than against Prue), yet David Caplan appears strangely unbudgable despite Lottogate--perhaps he's thankful that Mike Colle stole the Liberal-corruption spotlight? And while DVE may *appear* to be stronger-Tory than Colle's Eg-Law turf, it hasn't the same latent WASP/orthodox-Jewish present-day PC advantage. It would take the right wind in the Tory sails and/or a candidate of Denzil Minnan-Wong calibre to place this firmly in the PC column. Angie K. is no Denzil, and ?the right wind? would mean PC equalling Harris-era seat totals in the 416. Hey, even if Caplan may be branded a corrupt political hack, he's DVE's own beloved corrupt political hack...
07 08 16 jks
Don't bet on Caplan... Spill over from Don Valley West, a strong central and local campaign, and Kennedy is a strong candidate = Don Valley East goes blue.
07 08 14 Forbes
This is one of the strongest liberal ridings in Ontario and the conservatives know this or else they wouldn't have put such a lightweight up against Caplan.
07 08 09 Skiptea
Should be too close to call. John Tory effect in DVW will be in play here. A good province wide campaign by the Tories could tip this one in their favour.
07 07 26 R.B
This is an interesting riding... it was once conservative but since David Caplan was nominated it has been a liberal stronghold ever since. Mr.Caplan has done an exceptional job in this riding and deserves to be re-elected.
07 07 26 The Jackal
I will call this too close. If it was a year ago I would have said Caplan by a mile. But with the recent lottery scandal which hit Caplan directly and John Tory running next door it will be tough for him to hold. I won't say defeat yet but he will have to fight a lot to retain this seat.
07 07 20 Old NorthYork
This is one riding that is definitely staying RED. David Caplan trounced Dave Johnson and Paul Sutherland in back to back election shutouts. Sutherland and Johnson were supposed to be the strongest conservatives and they took a severe beating from Caplan and the liberals.
The Conservatives have finally realized this riding is a lot cause for them - and once again are rolling out their 'go-to candidate for lost causes': Angela Kennedy
Kennedy ran against Michael Prue in Beaches East York in the last provincial and placed a distant third. I predict that she won't do much better in Don Valley East.
Sorry Angela = Don Valley East will remain Liberal.
07 07 12 Blue Ontarian
Spill over from Don Valley West will enhance the turning of this riding blue. Mr. Lottogate is under pressure.

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