Prediction Changed
8:17 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Family Coalition
Progressive Conservative
New Democratic
No Affiliation

Eglinton-Lawrence (92.1%)
Hon Mike Colle
St. Paul's (7.9%)
Hon Michael Bryant

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 12 gos
Well Colle won as easily predicted but there's been a big shift in this riding - this was the strongest Conservative result in Toronto, the narrowest margin of defeat. The riding has been on an upward trend over the last few years, getting stronger both provincially and federally.
Joe Volpe must be looking over his shoulder and seeing a strong challenger in Joe Oliver - why else would Volpe have come out in favour of PC policy and against the provincial Liberal position?
07 10 09 Andrew
This is no doubt a safe Liberal seat. There are Colle signs everywhere, except for a small area west of Bathurst Street. But the fact that Colle even has any sign presence in that small area, a very Jewish religious area, is impressive. He's everywhere - area close to Dufferin has him ahead and the area towards Yonge seems to be greater too.
07 10 03 Former Sudburian
I know the southern portion of this riding leans Tory, and I haven't been to any other parts to see what signage is like there, but it is a sea of blue in Forest Hill north of Eglinton. Unlike neighbouring St. Paul's where the Tories lead in signs, but where the Liberals have a reasonable presence, I've seen about 30 PC signs and only one Colle sign. Unless he's walking away with the race in other parts of this riding I think their could be an upset here. At the very least Forest Hill will go massively Tory.
07 10 03 Nick J Boragina
I’m reminded of the recent Quebec election. People in this riding seem to think the local candidate’s troubles mean he will lose. Well in Quebec the ADQ had to replace a candidate, last minute, with some no-name university student, because that candidate made some stupid statements. What happened? That no-namer is now a member of the Quebec legislature. Sometimes it goes beyond the local candidate. Parties matter, and in a riding like this; Urban and with no internal cohesion (the riding is just lines on a map, it is not a community) then you are going to see the party label carry weight. If Karen Stintz and Howard Moscoe were running here against Colle, then maybe, just maybe, the Local Candidate influence would he enough to make the Liberal lose, but as it stands, there’s really no chance of the Liberals losing.
07 09 16 MH
This is one of the few constituencies in Ontario where their stand on funding religious schools will help rather than hurt the Tories. Furthermore, Mike Colle was weakened by the cricketgate fiasco. But he has to lose a lot of ground for the PCs to beat him (the NDP is not in the mix, except possibly as a spoiler). He should win, though with a reduced majority. And yet: Mr. Colle is vulnerable and the seat could go PC if the Tories start running a stronger campaign than they have so far.
07 09 14 Jeff
Interestingly though, in a riding where supposedly the public money for religious schools issue is supposed to help Tanz, he has no mention that he supports it on his literature or his website.
07 09 12 mb
Tanz may come closer due to the religious school funding issue coupled with Colle's Cricketgate, but I don't see him bridging the gap that's required. Colle has such a lock on the western half of this riding that I don't see it going any other way but Liberal.
07 09 03 helpfulfixer
This seat will go to the Liberals. Despite clearly not running a tight ship in his ministry, Colle is well-liked in this riding, which has also returned paragon of ethical virtue Joe Volpe to Ottawa numerous times. The grants mini-scandal reflected much better on Colle, who at least assumed ministerial responsibility and resigned after the AG's report, than it did on McGuinty, whose accusations of racism will be a consistent and valid cause for criticism throughout the campaign. Colle will win his seat and, in the event of a Liberal win in the province, will not be re-appointed to cabinet.
07 09 02 Jeff
Actually Fraser, Colle and the Ontario government gave grants to worthy organizations that had been ignored by the Tory government for 8 years. You do your best to mislead voters but even the Auditor said partisanship had nothing to do with these needy organizations getting the government's help.
07 08 31 M.
Mike Colle is at the Centre of a big mess up - giving away money to partisans without any respect for his constituents - or for Ontario Taxpayers. HE WILL BE TARGETED by both the NDP and Tories - and quite frankly- He will lose.
07 08 31 seamus
Shy of Mike Colle getting convicted, nothing but nothing is going to prevent him from getting re-elected. Colle is popular, the Liberals are even more popular and Bernie Tanz is no Karen Stintz. Had she run for the Tories, this might have been a horse race with Colle taking the more immigrant west and Stintz taking the more Jewish and WASPy east. The NDP is traditionally a non-factor and will continue to be - although the Party is polling at 25% City-wide, so the Eglinton-Lawrence numbers will naturally rise. Colle wins with a comfortable, albeit reduced margin.
07 08 30 Pollster
Fraser Macdonald is working on the Bernie Tanz campaign so I would hope that he thinks his candidate will win. Colle is in fact beloved by the constituents in the riding, especially in the west end, and Tanz is an unknown. Have seen some very recent polling for several Toronto ridings and Colle looks good here. Also looks like Tory will be spending much more time in his riding than he planned.
07 08 29 King of Kensington
I don't know where Fraser Macdonald gets his facts. The latest figures on ethnic origin (from the 2006 census) haven't been released by StatsCan. In 2001 there were far more than 6,000 people of Italian descent in Eglinton-Lawrence (I'm pretty sure it was around double that).
I also wouldn't call Eglinton-Lawrence the next seat to go Tory after DVW and Willowdale in the 416. I would put Etobicoke and Lakeshore well ahead of Eg-Law (this seat didn't even go Tory in '99 when they still won plenty of seats in Toronto).
And the Jewish community isn't some monolith that will all vote as a bloc for Tory's faith-based schools scheme. The Bathurst-Lawrence Orthodox Jewish already had one of their own running who basically was a one-issue candidate. And while Orthodox Jews are a substantial presence in the riding there are plenty of Jews who aren't Orthodox (after all only 10% of the Jews in Toronto are Orthodox and they don't all live in one riding) living in the affluent North Toronto part. It is well known that wealthy Jews are far more ?liberal? than their WASP counterparts.
Colle will hang on. It is just too safe a Liberal riding.
07 08 27 Fraser Macdonald
I don't know where you got the idea that Colle is beloved by his constituents. It is Volpe who they love. When Volpe was accused of things, they rallied around him because he is a hard-working guy.
Colle is not a hard-working guy, and quite frankly they are angry with him.
Where the Italian community stood by Volpe because they felt he was being attacked for being Italian, they think Colle gives Italians a bad name, and he will have a much more difficult time getting their vote this time around.
And this is just the Italian community.
There are only 6,000 Italian voters in Eglinton-Lawrence, down a lot from 2003. Filling in the gap are Filipinos, who love Stephen Harper, love John Tory even more, and who Bernie Tanz has been working with for 10 years in the area.
10,000 people with no attachment to the Liberal party make up the rest of the west end.
Now let's talk about the Bathurst corridor. The 2nd biggest Jewish population (on a riding basis) in Ontario. the third parties involved with inclusive education will be pumping all the resources they have both here and Thornhill. In addition, the riding has been redistributed to include a larger section of the Jewish community, and to lose the Liberal-friendly Oakwood and Vaughn Road area.
As for the east end, where I live - they are Red Tory voters. They don't love Harper, they didn't vote for Eves, but they did vote for Harris in '95 and '99. John Tory has roots in the area, and is seen as a hero for hard-working upper middle class WASPs like those who live in Lytton Park.
After Willowdale and Don Valley West - Eglinton-Lawrence is the next riding the tories will knock off.
Bernie Tanz is beloved by undecided voters, is well financed, and has been preparing for a huge effort once signs go up in September.
07 08 26 Jeff
Despite recent missteps, Colle is beloved by his constituents. The west part of the riding identify with him as a fighter for the common guy and the east side like him for his pro-environment, anti-development stances. If Tories think they're taking him down, they're living in a fool's paradise.
07 08 19 Rebel
This may be a tight riding election night, especially because of Colle's debacle on his special grants scheme (always hard to run after a resignation). The riding has three demographic components, only one each has a definitively Liberal or Tory tilt. Obviously important is Tory's ability to win urban votes...
07 08 16 A.S.
As egg-on-the-face as the Colle scandal is, it may also have set off an electoral tripwire in a seat that's never been as necessarily 'Grit-safe' as it appears--and one which faces John Tory country right across the Yonge St DMZ. I've even speculated on its potential John Tory targetability in a previous EPP--now, talk about a gift horse, unless Colle manages to rally up some kind of ?sympathy vote?. But the recently-eternal problem remains: these are the Tories, this is the 416. (With added concern over whether the ultra-orthodox ?Asper Tory? undercurrent is fatally offputting to Gentiles.) So, watch this space carefully; if there are as few as 5 PC seats in the 416, Eg-Law *could* be one of them--and if you were to suggest such a possibility 5 or 10 years ago, you would have been looked upon as daft. No longer. (NB: Colle won by a landslide in '99, when 8 Toronto seats went PC.)
07 08 16 King of Kensington
To F. Macdonald: What exactly are ?Jewish-friendly policies?? I realize there's a heavy Orthodox Jewish presence in Eglinton-Lawrence but to suggest that Jews, as a whole, unlike ?real? Canadians who vote based on a variety of issues, vote as some sort of bloc solely based on issues like religious schools provincially or Israel federally strikes me as absurd, and frankly bordering on offensive.
Most Jews in Toronto do not, and have no intention to, send their kids to parochial schools.
07 08 08 F Macdonald/Lawrence Heights
While we are still waiting on new polls after the Colle fallout, this appears to be Tory's election to lose. With this redistribution and closer numbers, Tory will carry this riding. Although Jim Balsillie is a card-carrying Liberal, this city's white collar groups (and their supporters) will appreciate a man like Tory over McGuinty who has no plan.
While Colle was a scapegoat for McGuinty's corruption, the people here are ANGRY. Lifelong Italian Liberals are tearing up their membership cards and putting up Tory signs. Bernie Tanz has run before federally and has been an advocate for the Jewish community here for some time. With Jewish-friendly policies, angry Italians in the west, and John Tory's great showing in his 2003 mayoral race, the Tories could squeak through here.
07 07 28 K.S.
Ex-Minister Mike Colle just resigned after the Auditor General blasted him over the grant scandal. Not sure how his constituents are taking in ?Colle-gate?. Luckily he's in a traditional Liberal riding.
07 05 15 King of Kensington
Easy Liberal hold. As Miles Lunn points out Mike Colle is much more respected than Joe Volpe. And it's a Liberal stronghold.
The PC's may win orthodox Jewish votes over the religious schools and John Tory at the helm can also appeal to the North Toronto WASP vote. But it won't even be close.
PS I would suggest to the moderators moving Eglinton-Lawrence to the North York heading as opposed to Old City. The Eglinton-Lawrence wards are part of the North York Community Council and overall is more inner-suburban than urban in character.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
A very safe liberal seat. Went Liberal by a sizeable margin in 1999 and considering the Liberals will likely perform better than 1999 even if they lose the election, I expect they will hold this. This is after all Joe Volpe's riding federally, and considering how corrupt he is and the fact he still gets re-elected, a more ethical Mike Colle should easily win here.

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