Prediction Changed
12:23 PM 02/09/2007

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Essex
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Liberal
CROZIER, BRUCE
Green
FRACASSI, JESSICA
New Democratic
GRIMA, JOHN
Progressive Conservative
KNIAZIEW, RICHARD
Libertarian
PARENT, AARON

Incumbent:
Essex (100%)
Bruce Crozier

2003 Result (redistributed):
17767
44.89%
9549
24.13%
11136
28.14%




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07 10 08 King of Kensington
76.67.8.227
This will certainly stay Liberal. This is a good example of a mismatch between federal and provincial results. The Conservatives hold this seat federally but came in third last time. My guess is that this may be partly due to the legacy of Bob Nixon but more to do that in this working class riding the more populist style of Harper goes over much better than the upper class/noblesse oblige appeal of John Tory. The only question is who will come in second - my feeling is the NDP will.
07 10 03 seasaw
72.140.204.233
Bruce Crozier is a very good MPP. He's held the seat for some 13 or 14 years. Prior to Crozier, this riding was held by Liberal Remo Mancini and he was the MPP for I believe over 20 years. The Tories did not win here in the Bill Davis years, nor did they in the Mike Harris years, They're certainly not going to win this year.
07 10 01 Nick J Boragina
74.14.23.192
Bear and Ape are right Ė both in the local and provincial sense. The PC momentum has grind to a halt. While I donít doubt the Tories will gain votes in ridings like this, they just donít have the machine in place to capitalize on that vote weakening. They need some serious new momentum in order to take this riding from the Liberals, and I donít see that fermenting.
07 09 28 Dave
69.156.94.120
The PC signs that came out just prior to the election in this riding seem to have stalled and (i know you shouldn't judge an election by the signs) NDP have a strong presence on main roads, the Liberal signs simply seem to continue to come out in waves. I spend a lot of time on the roads and am seeing more and more Lib signs. Many that I speak to are going Lib and one issue seems to come up is the faith based schooling topic. This is still a very rural riding and many old timers don't like the idea of messing with the separate school boards.
07 09 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
204.187.16.106
Our initial posting was back when the PC seemed to have the momentum. Now that momentum has fizzled and three out of four of the most recent polls put the PC at or BELOW their 2003 reults. This means that they are NOT going to get 10% off the Liberals, especially against a 15 year incumbent. Both opposition parties will be takign votes from the Liberals but (unless things change) not enough for it to matter. The numbers are saying that a bold PC prediction is not common sense at all. We're wondering if the federal conservative gang from Windsor-Tecumseh 2006 are up to their old tricks again...
07 09 24 Colin B
72.38.227.236
It is nice to see that people are showing some common sense now. This riding is NOT cut and dry Liberal. I would agree that the NDP show in 2003, considering how poorly the NDP performed overall, was more due to the candidate than the party and was indeed a ?fluke?. That isn't to say that the NDP won't do well. I expect they will. This IS still Essex county. However, the scenario that I believe we are facing is one in which the NDP are taking votes from the Liberals as well as the Conservatives taking votes from the Liberals. I think the Conservatives are taking the larger portion though. So what is the result? Well, take 10% from the Liberals and give it to the Conservatives and take 5% from the Liberals and give it to the NDP. You have a very close three way race with the Conservatives coming out on top. It bears repeating: people WILL be surprised with the results on election night.
07 09 21 A.S.
74.99.222.209
Anomalously, Bruce Crozier lost more ground than any other Liberal in '03--from 57% to 45%!--but that wasn't because of the ballyhooed swing to the right that claimed Essex federally the next year; rather, it was because the NDP candidate was Lakeshore mayor and former MPP Pat Hayes, who jumped over the Tories for second place! Thus, one has to be very guarded about using the outperforming 2003 figure as a 2007 NDP guideline--on the other hand, it also hints that Essex's so-called Conservative revolution might in fact have been more of a populist revolution that, a la BC and Northern Ontario, could just as well have swung the other way. So, if there's already an strong NDP sign presence, it proves that 2003 wasn't necessarily such a star-candidate fluke. As for Crozier himself, never mind that last result, he's seemed oddly unmoored since losing his former mayoral stronghold of Leamington--but, unmoored enough to lose? Maybe, as last time, the NDP/PC split's the saviour. But it remains an odd thing if we've actually *duped* the '03 scenario of Essex being a more likely NDP gain than either of the Windsors...
07 09 18 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
204.187.16.106
Just adding something to our previous post. We took the winery tour this weekend with a bunch of buddies, which brought us through most of the towns in this riding. Based only on signs (and yes we know sign counts mean didilly in the long run) it appears the NDP have a very strong presence in LaSalle and Amherstburg while the PC and Liberals are hitting the south and east of the county. Be interesting to see a poll on this riding, we think there could be a three-way race starting to brew.
07 09 09 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
76.64.127.251
We have to agree that putting this in the Liberal column is a little premature. The thing is, we are not certain who would be the greater challenger, the PC or the NDP. People may be tempted to say PC due to the CPC holding this rinding federally, however if the provincial NDP could hold their own and suck just 7-8% away from the Liberals, they'd be in a statistical deadheat (that's without the PCs gaining anything, which we all know won't happen). We're going to keep an eye on this one (after all, it is Prof Ape's home riding).
07 09 05 RyanOntario
66.186.79.115
was surprised to see this one added so early to the liberals.
so i did some research and visited the candidates election websites well only found the pc site others didn't seem to have one yet. The site for Richard Kniaziew seemed very good and it looks like his campaign team is well organized and motivated.
as for the previous results wouldn't read much into them Sue Whelan former liberal mp won by large margins in 97 and 2000 but lost this same riding in 2004 and again in 2006. and mostly that was because voters were annoyed at the provincial budget which created health premiums and broke election promises.
so i'm doubtful that Bruce Crozier can actually get re-elected here not because he isn't well known or anything just because the liberal brand isn't as strong here as it used to be. but don't expect the pc's to be major factors in the other 2 windsor ridings as there more urban/traditionally liberal/ndp.
07 05 26 Rural Analyst
70.50.174.7
Bruce Crozier to hold.
This is a fairly unique riding that has a fair share of both union leftism with social conservatism. While such a recipe makes it a Conservative seat federally, it is only marginally so and it is primarily due to a split on the left with the old Reform/Alliance vote making up the balance (the old federal PC's were virtually invisible here). That does not bode well for the Ontario PC's, who might very well finish 3rd again as many of the Jeff Watson supporters might vote Liberal or stay home. The NDP does have some strength here as you get close to Windsor, but that does not make up enough of the riding. All things considered, it should stay the way it is.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
I expect Bruce Cozier to hold this one. This is not a traditional Tory seat and it has only swung over to the Tories federally as voting patters there are primarily along rural/urban lines as opposed to conservative vs. liberal. Provincially that dynamic exists, but to a much lesser extent than federally.
07 05 03 C B
24.57.0.254
I think that people are severely underestimating the changes in the political climate in Essex county in the last five years or so. This riding has become more and more conservative in nature, and continues to. People are not that thrilled about the Liberal government down here right now, and Crozier is not a cabinet minister. With the Conservatives now having two victories under their belts federally, with increasing margins, do not be surprised if this swings PC.
07 04 10 Nathanael S Hope
74.210.39.243
This riding is hard to predict so early in the year Bruce Crozier hasn't said if he will run again for the Liberals. If he does run he will probably win again but it will be interesting to see how people react to him not living in the riding for all his terms after the federal Liberals made it such an issue for the federal Conservatives in the region. If he doesn't run I think it will be a close race between the NDP and Liberals.



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