Prediction Changed
12:32 PM 02/05/2007

Election Prediction Project
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KenoraŚRainy River
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
New Democratic
HAMPTON, HOWARD
Green
HOLIDAY, JOJO
Progressive Conservative
LUCAS, PENNY
Liberal
WOOD, MIKE

Incumbent:
Kenora-Rainy River (100%)
Howard Hampton

2003 Result (redistributed):
6746
25.73%
3343
12.75%
15666
59.75%




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07 10 09 N~Jam101
64.25.181.171
This one is easy to predict. Having a party leader as your MPP never hurts no matter which party he/she belongs to. Hampton is well liked by most aboriginal people and in the first nations which give him greater support than most outsiders expect him to get. Although I feel he didn't have a great campaign as compared to his past three, he will do just as well if not better at home.
07 10 03 Nick J Boragina
74.14.23.192
This is Hampton Country. Add to that a historic trend towards the NDP. Remember that this riding looks different then itĺs federal counterpart. Much of the rainy-river area has been merged into Thunder Bay federally, while these areas remain tied to the far more rural and native voters, which will only add to the NDP total.
07 09 11 nesooite
71.174.235.157
Hampton being a party leader plus the fact that Northern Ont incumbents are nearly impossible to knock off due to name recognition will leave this in the NDP column. Although, this may be closer than expected as Liberals could give NDP a run. Especially if Hampton ignores local issues with a provincial wide campaign. If NDP drops province wide, this riding could become closer.
07 08 25 A.S.
74.99.222.209
Judging solely from the astronomical '03 result, anything but a Hampsterdance is impossible--even if the NDP's still patiently awaiting a translation of provincial Howiemania into federal electability. (That's what you get for supporting Blaikie over Layton, I guess.)
07 07 13 Rural Analyst
67.68.136.101
Howard Hampton to hold by a large margin.
The safest of the three party leaders, although even if he wasn't running the NDP could easily hold the seat. The federal results don't really mean anything here as most of the federal Conservative support does not transfer over to the provincial PC's, which should become even more pronounced with John Tory as leader (they may fall into single digits). The Liberals are also not exactly popular in the far north either right now and may lose support as well. Hampton picks up support from all federal parties and should win overwhelmingly.
07 05 09 Observer
66.78.125.41
If Hampton wasn't here, this could be a race, but he seems to have a pretty strong hold on it. Given increasing NDP strength in the North, he is even stronger.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
This is Howard Hampton's riding, so he will win this massively as long as he remains leader of the party. I wouldn't say this is a safe NDP riding, since it did go Liberal federally, but it is one where incumbents rarely lose, especially if they are the leader of the party.
07 05 02 Ryan N
216.211.71.36
As party leader, there's no doubt that Hampton will win here by quite a large margin.
07 03 22 B.O.
130.63.176.226
This is the safest provincial NDP seat in the province. As leader of the party, there is positively no way that Hampton can lose. Hampton won by a landslide in 2003, and the NDP has done nothing but poll higher since then. Hampton will win for sure.



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