| ||New Democratic|
| ||Family Coalition|
| ||Progressive Conservative|
||Ottawa South (99.7%)|
Hon Dalton McGuinty
Hon Madeleine Meilleur
2003 Result (redistributed):
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| ||07 10 09
|Unlike Tory, McGuinty has a riding that would go liberal regardless of whether the Premier was running in it. Tory has a riding that might go Liberal even though he is running there. McGuinty might have had more trouble here should he have been headed toward a minority or a Tory minority, but he will retain it probably with considerable margins.|
| ||07 10 07
|I would like to have waited for a final SES poll, but here goes...The PCs have increased their signs in my home poll and bordering streets to 11 against 7 Liberal and none for the NDP or Greens. I predict that poll 129 will vote PC 89 votes against 80 Liberal, 10 NDP and 11 Green.|
Ottawa South had a voter turnout last time of 58.8%. I think it will decline to about 57% this time and with a modest increase in voters, the total vote will be about 49,000.
This is my best guess...a somewhat reduced Liberal winning margin of 15% or 7,400 votes...
| ||07 10 03
|No doubt, the closure of Camp Leo and the Islamic vote will have a major effect in the Hon. Dalton McGuinty's votes. I do not, however, predict that he will lose his seat. People are not angry, like they were in 1990 to throw the premier out of office, and out of his riding for that fact. I suspect Mr. McGuinty will win this by a margin closer to that of his 1999 margin, rather than 2003 margin.|
| ||07 09 30
|For an election junkie, this riding is an embarrassment of boredom leading into the last full week of campaigning. There are very few lawn signs anywhere in the riding. There is little canvassing and only some literature drops. I have received a piece of PC literature but no Liberal or NDP.|
With the (minor) effect of redistribution, the Liberals won in 2003 by about 17.5% - very healthy - of course this is the Premier's riding.
Given Ipsos Reid and a Liberal provincial lead of 10%, a reasonable guess at this stage is that the Liberals should take Ottawa South by some 15% - a convincing but not decisive result (I usually want a 20%+ win to justify that boast).
A few factors remain...the trend in the last week...the impact of this riding having the largest number of Muslims in Ontario (10%+ in 2001) and thereby a possible counterbalance to the apparent Liberal lead driven by antagonism to faith-based schools. Finally, I suspect that the riding will not have a robust turnout; nor is there any evidence to me that any party has so identified its vote that an election day organization is going to corrall voters and send them to the polls when no apparent full-riding canvass has taken place.
I'll wait till the EPP sends out its ‘post or die’ notice and estimate as detailed a voting result as I can muster.
| ||07 09 16
|Starting Week Two of the campaign, the PC candidate has 4 lawn signs in my home poll to one for McGuinty (Riverside Park). Yesterday, there was a demonstration at McGuinty's constituency office, protesting his treatment of autistic children. This may turn into a local issue as this summer Camp Leo closed, the only summer recreation for autistic children in the Ottawa-area.|
| ||07 09 16
||Nick J Boragina|
|Weather or not he keeps his job as Premier, Dalton McGunity will keep his job as MPP. The results of the last election in this riding, (nearly a 20 point gap) would be enough on it’s own. With the local candidate being the Liberal Leader and Premier, it’s all over. Liberal win.|
| ||07 09 09
|Hi Hatman...200 + is a pretty good turnout for an uncontested nomination, so your sources must have very high standards or be uninformed. As to Richard Raymond, he ran a pretty competent campaign in 2003 against very heavy odds and came out with a good third of the vote. Not too bad. |
| ||07 09 09
|My sources actually indicate that the conservative nomination was actually poorly attended, and actually had less people than the NDP nomination which occured yesterday. Anyways, McGuinty has this in the bag. I've already seen quite a few signs for him. The Conservative candidate is the same one as last time, and I remember he was a very poor candidate.|
| ||07 08 22
|Richard Raymond, a strong candidate from the 2003 election, is running again for the PCs in Ottawa South. His nomination meeting last night was well-attended and was more of an Eastern Ontario rally with John Tory speaking and virtually all of his Eastern Ontario candidates present. |
Tory's speech displayed his progressive credentials as he took the Premier to task on the autism file - noting the plight of those denied treatment in the Ontario system. This remains an issue in the Ottawa area with consistent media coverage and local advocates.
Recent polls show the PCs running well, anywhere to 3-5% behind the Liberals in the province, compared with the 2003 margin of 12%. McGuinty won last time by 17% suggesting he is probably ahead in his riding by 10% or so pre-writ.
| ||07 08 19
|The PC candidate will be chosen this coming Tuesday. Until then the Liberals and Premier McGuinty will have the obvious advantage.|
Demographically, the riding is a typical Ottawa suburban riding though somewhat less high income and with a significant Muslim population of 10% or so. Generally this means that the riding is not a Liberal stronghold.
McGuinty will eventually lose more from a thousand cuts than a single debacle. Issues like municipal tax assessment strike across every subruban riding but the Premier has by his own choosing taken as enemies the small but determined autism community one of whose whose leaders, Andrew Kavchak, lives in his riding. McGuinty's betrayal of his 2003 promise to provide support for autism therapy will strike only a few, but determined voices, however it does strike at his largely benevolent non-controversial image.
My guess is a Liberal win of 4,000 votes (reduced from 7,700 votes in 2003) but an entire campaign and a PC candidate will affect this calculation.
| ||07 08 18
|Funnily enough, Durward McKirby's own best election was in 1995, right before he became provincial party leader--even 2003's win only added a couple of points to 1999's close-call tally (though, for morale's sake, it *did* make the difference between plurality and majority). And on top of all that, brother David's undergone a subsequent pair of federal scares in a hitherto 'safe seat'--though his ability to surmount both (especially 2006) pretty much declares the coast being clear for the Premier. Maybe on previous grounds, the riding team should watch its opposition with an eagle eye; but overall, if Ottawa South swings Tory, it'll be once the Premier and anyone with his surname either retires, doesn't offer, or does a 'Tim Peterson'.|
| ||07 05 05
|This is Dalton McGuinty's riding and I expect win or lose the election, he will hold his own riding. He did face a tough challenge in 1999 when the Tories did target this riding, but I suspect this time around with their focus just on getting back into government, this will not be amongst one of their target ridings. They will probably target Ottawa West-Nepean and Ottawa-Orleans instead which they do have a shot at winning.|
| ||07 05 04
|Liberal stronghold, plus it's the Premiers riding. No way that the Liberals will lose here.|
| ||07 05 02
|Despite opposition against his Liberal government, Premier McGuinty will still win here. Maybe by a slightly smaller margin though.|
| ||07 05 02
|I could buy Dalton losing his seat if the polls were pointing towards a Tory landslide. But with all signs pointing to a close election - possibly a minority - I think Dalton will carry this seat. It may be a squeaker a la Charest in the last Quebec election, but he'll be returned to Queen's Park in October.|