Prediction Changed
8:21 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Progressive Conservative
Family Coalition

Oxford (100%)
Ernie Hardeman

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 03 seasaw
This used to be a bellweather riding, both federally and provincially, with the exception of '80 federal election, for years it sent members from the winning party to both Ottawa and QP. In '85, the Tory candidate won in '87 the Liberal and then Kimball Sutherland took it for NDP in'90, and Mr Hardeman's held the riding since '95. That all changed in '03, however, with Mr Hardeman winning a third term and then of course in '04 federal, Dave MacKenzie, who was the losing PC candidate in'97 and'00 took it for the Conservatives federally. Ernie Hardeman will win this riding again. He's been a solid MPP and people like him. The Liberal candidate is also a very strong and articulate candidate, but that won't be enough to take this riding from Hardeman.
07 10 01 rbgs
This is one of the wealthiest and most prosperous corners of Ontario.
The incumbent Ernie Hardeman is a master schmoozer with strong support (ie. 3 to 1) in the rural areas of the riding. In socially conservative SW Oxford, it is more like 5 to 1.
In Tillsonburg, Ingersoll and Woodstock, Hardeman and Brian Brown polled very close in 2003. If the Liberals could swing the three major municipalities to a 5% spread, they could win the seat. That is not likely to happen now, but the demographics are changing as the three communities grow very quickly.
Liberal challenger Brian Jackson is a pleasant man with strong support in Tillsonburg (where he taught at the High School for many years) and strong support from his wife's family, which is an old Liberal family of some influence in Woodstock. Jackson probably does not have the momentum to capture Oxford from Hardeman, but Ernie is worried. He has spent a fortune on large signs -- which are everywhere in the riding. Hardeman has clearly out-spent Jackson, and takes the Liberal threat seriously. He has been around long enough to know that you have to work to get reelected, even in a so-called ‘safe’ seat.
I predict a 3000 to 4000 vote spread between Jackson and Hardeman, with Hardeman winning. That would be a comfortable margin in London or KW, but it should give Hardeman food for thought.
07 09 15 Andrew Cox
PC hold.
1) The arrival of the Toyota plant here will shake things up in the years to come: thousands of industrial manufacturing jobs and explosive growth in Woodstock to support those people. The riding will get significantly less rural and more like Guelph in 2003 or Peterborough now with a fringe of farmland around a larger urban centre. But that is a decade away. For now, its the only safe PC seat in the London area.
2) Ernie Hardeman's a likable guy who works his riding pretty hard. I don't see a swing away from him on personal issues.
3) I understand the Liberal nomination left some bad blood, so I don't expect a strong machine here.
07 09 11 Nick J Boragina
I am familiar with the history of this riding, and for a time, it was the safest riding in Ontario for the PC Party, federally and provincially. While things might change in the future, we are not there jus yet. This riding will continue it?s trend of the past century and vote Tory.
07 08 31 A.S.
PC rubberstampville, though with all the 401-corridor auto plants gravitating this way, who knows how uniformly the case that'll be in the future (hasn't stopped Alliston, Cambridge, Oshawa though). Then again, in case Dalton craters, all that snowballing auto-industry clout might as well lead the *NDP* into second place. (Don't laugh. Oxford was one of only two provincial seats where the Liberals were third place in *both* Rae's year of 1990 *and* Harris's year of 1995. Now, there's a bit of truly useless trivia for you.)
07 05 05 M. Lunn
This is a very safe Tory riding. Even federally the PCs almost won this in 1997 and 2000 and Ernie Hardemann won this comfortably despite his party losing the last election, so I expect the Tories to hold this without too much trouble.

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