Prediction Changed
12:09 AM 08/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
New Democratic

Sarnia-Lambton (85.1%)
Hon Caroline Di Cocco
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex (14.9%)
Maria Van Bommel

2003 Result (redistributed):

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

07 10 08 Nick J Boragina
This riding is one of the more Liberal ridings of rural southwest Ontario. Even that is questionable as this riding is not really as rural as it’s neighbors. Sarnia is a large portion of the riding and it tends to vote more Liberal then the surrounding rural areas. If there’s anything to watch here it is how well the NDP will do, and if they can pull another 5% of the vote their way.
07 10 07 I'm Never Wrong
I'm still trying to figure out why this riding is still in the too close too call catagory. The only formula for a Tory victory in this riding is a huge surge by the NDP that gets them over 20 per cent and splits the left/centre vote and lets the Tories grap the riding. With the Howard Hampton ‘Road to Oblivian’ tour limping down the finish line, there's no way Barb Millit will get more than 15 per cent of the vote here. John Tory looks like he'll be riding off into the sunset on October 10 so there's no Tory wave to lift local candidate, Bob Bailey anywhere near where he's competitive with Di Cocco. Time to call this one for the Liberals as Di Cocco wins by more than she did last time. I'll say by 4200 votes.
07 10 06 Old Willowdaler
Look for a liberal hold here. As I have said ad nauseum on the site John Tory kicked this one back into grit hands. Reduced margin I think say 40-42% closer to provincial average with a tickup in both PCs to mid 30's wiht more NDP and greens (read PO'd Tories)
07 09 13 TCM
I have to say the PC Candidate in this riding is a gift to the Liberals. Baily is a bridge to 25 years ago, has no name recognition, and can barely put a sentence together. The idea of him and John Tory having anything in common or sitting together in caucus is just plain funny. The NDP is on the move and could benefit in the end from an anybody but Caroline campaign and that could make a fun 3 way race.
07 09 13 Robert
Sarnia is too much of a union town to vote anything else. Sarnia will re-elect her because her competition is poor. The NDP is dwindling away and the PC party is hopeless with John Tory as a leader.
07 09 05 swifty
Not sure if I agree with G. Peter's prediction of another Liberal victory in Sarnia-Lambton. Although name recognition and good performance ensured DiCocco a victory in 2003, there have been quite a few local issues where her perfomance seems to be lacking in the past four years. Little action on improving the dangerous sections of Highway 40, abandoning her private member's bill which would have made all public bodies like hospitals and school boards more accountable and transparent to the taxpayer, her total lack of interest in tightening up the incinerator emission standards at Clean Harbors and her slow action on resolving never ending hospital problems are a few of the issues where MPP DiCocco seemed to lose her pre-2003 commitment to act decisively on these issues.
On the plus side of the ledger, the Liberals have been throwing a lot of money into the riding for all kinds of things over the last month or so and to their credit have managed to get along with major voting blocks consisting of groups like the teachers and nurses.
I still don't think it's a slam dunk for the Liberals in Sarnia-Lambton on October 10. But the other candidates will have to run well planned, non-traditional campaigns that will clearly show DiCocco has not walked her talk on several issues.
07 09 03 G. Peter
This seat will remain Liberal.
I make this prediction for a few reasons.
1) While Sarnia-Lambton was traditionally Conservative provincially for many years, and was in the midst of a second Conservative majority in '99, the incumbent lost to Di Cocco. While the Harris gov't did lose a percentage of their seats in that second victory, this traditionally Conservative riding isn't one you would have expected them to lose at the outset. Di Cocco's name recognition was a significant factor in her victory.
2) In 2003 Di Cocco won again, though as its been said, with a smaller margin of victory. Of course it's only like 1 % smaller, but the Conservative vote basically disappeared. Di Cocco?s percentage stayed effectively the same, but the Conservative dropped like 10%. It might be attributed to Conservatives staying home on election day; and while that won't happen again in 2007, Di Cocco should have enough support to win again.
I will say that the Liberals win here but with significantly reduced margin, as the Conservative vote is likely to reappear. Couple that with the NDP's surge in urban centres and you have a closer than expected Liberal victory.
Di Cocco's reputation is as a solid constituency MPP, though, and her name recognition is going to play in her favor, as will the Conservative candidates lack of the same.
The wildcard for Di Cocco is the going to be the gov?t record that she, like all Liberal MPPs, will have to defend. As long as she can do that well she should be able to hold the seat for the Liberals.
In the end, Liberal hold, but by a margin closer to the incumbent's first victory rather than the second.
07 08 16 A.S.
Di Cocco also didn't run against an incumbent in '03 (perhaps free_thinker got '03 mixed up with '99? Or Di Cocco with Van Bommel?). Still, there is a stat worth noting: even in the face of a McGuinty landslide, Di Cocco won reelection with a smaller share than in '99--and that was *before* the redistribution which effectively handed the federal seat to Pat Davidson. So, there's definite reason for Sarnia Grits to quake a little--then again, if anything's to blame for the '03 Grit drop-off, it was a surprisingly strong NDP candidacy. And if NDP's strong again, that could even save Di Cocco in a split...
07 08 09 RyanOntario
This riding is definitely in play , especially after the liberals decision to close the lambton coal generating plant and a significant amount of local job loses will not help the liberals either.
if the federal conservatives were able to win this riding i don't see why the provincial conservatives couldn't win this seat.
the high liberal results from the last election don't mean anything , alot has changed and many voters are upset with mcguinty for all his broken promises and will vote for other parties like pc or ndp.
07 08 01 TCM
Unless the NDP has a complete colapse it is going to be very tough for the Libs to keep this seat. The NDP have a strong candidate who will push the party vote back to 20% and that means finally the ineffective liberal member will be gone. Also look for the PC to do really well in rural areas.
07 07 30 Swifty
Free Thinker needs to get his/her facts right re the 2003 election. Di Cocco kicked the PC candidate's butt and won by almost 6K votes, more than ?barely? I would say.
BUT this time around, I don't think it's a slam dunk for the incumbent as she seldom speaks out on local issues of importance and seems to have turned into more of a messenger than an advocate. Elections usually favour the incumbent but since folks elected Di Cocco twice because she 'walked her talk', not doing so many times over the last four years could spell trouble for her on October 10!
07 05 11 free_thinker
M. Lunn, your kidding right? This seat will fly to tories. There are several reasons for this. Di Cocco barely won in 2003 against an incumbent linked to a fairly ill regarded government. Now, the tables are turned. Furthermore, di Cocco will now have a government record to defend not to mention her lackluster performance as a constituency MP. This riding has also shifted and become slightly more conservative since 2003 thats very evident in the progression towards the federal tories.
Also, Pat Davidson, the federal MP has quite the team and look for them and their winning ways to be active. This seat has tory pick up written all over it. I predict a tory pickup by 2500.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
Although a bellwether federally, this did go Liberal provincially in 1999 and the Provincial PCs for whatever reason don't seem to have the same traction in the London-Windsor corridor as the federal Tories do. I am not sure why, but all five London-Windsor corridor ridings are Liberal provincially and Tory federally.

Submit Information here

Regional Index
Ontario Provincial - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster