Prediction Changed
11:11 AM 03/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Sault Ste. Marie
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Family Coalition
Progressive Conservative

Sault Ste. Marie (100%)
David Orazietti

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 03 Andrew Cox
Oracle has a new local poll out today.
Liberal Orazietti 60%
NDP Arbus 25%
PC Pringle 10%
Polled 300 persons, +/- 5.6%, 19/20 conducted September 27th through September 30th.
There is no argument - sample size, Tory's flip-flop, 10 days to go - that makes me think a 35% lead is going to disappear.
Barring Dalton McGuinty's face falling off and revealing he is an evil robot, this riding is going Liberal.
07 10 03 Nick J Boragina
This riding is not going to be nearly as close as anyone thinks. First of all some people think it’s a ‘Three Way Race’ with the PC Party somehow coming back from a 50, yes 50 point gap to challenge the Liberals. Even the NDP was 20 points behind last time. If anything, I’m curious if the FCP can finish ahead of the Tories. Doubt it, but it’s representative of the fact that it’s a Liberal-NDP race. Some projections talk about newspapers and personality, but the reality is that this riding is not so far removed that political parties do not matter. This is not Nunavut. The Liberals have the edge here because they are Liberals, that will matter far more here then the Local Candidates.
07 10 03 T
The pulse of the riding seems to suggest Oriazetti will win this riding again, albeit with a slightly smaller margin than last time.
Arbus does not seem to be resonating with voters locally. The PC's are a non-factor.
Issues with import in Southern Ontario (such as religious school funding) are not really on the radar in this riding. ‘What Can you do for the Sault’ is the essential political ethos. Oraizetti has delivered a new hospital, hockey rink, wind farm and innovation to the community.
Thus, despite his reputation for being a bit aloof (personality is a major factor in this riding) Oraizetti will benefit from the numerous funding announcements in this riding over the last four years.
07 09 16 A.S.
A prime NDP target mainly because it saw the party's only defeated incumbent in '03--though it would take a mighty counter-swing to reverse things. Such a counter-swing's not undoable--but it either has to accompany big NDP gains elsewhere (doubling their seat count?), or be as freakishly isolated a phenomenon as Orazietti's '03 victory was in the first place. Which might make sense, if there's something about that tenuous Algoma Steel-centred economy that make the voters rather hairtrigger and fickle and electorally mood-swingy. It's virtually an empire unto itself within Ontario at large--even Northern Ontario; it's almost more akin to a seat within Labrador or the Territories...
07 09 16 RyanOntario
Changing my prediction here to ‘too close to call ‘
Have been reading some of the sault ste marie newspapers online and it seems this riding has turned into a 3 way race with tory Josh Pringle going after David Orazietti on the right and ndp Jeff Arbus on the left.
07 09 12 nesooite
Another toss up riding between Liberals and NDP. The NDP can run a chimpanzee in the Sault and obtain 10,000 votes. Arbus is not a known quantity but the Sault has a history of electing lacklustre NDP MP's or MPP's (Cyril Symes, Karl Morin-Strom, Tony Martin, etc.). This plus the fact Orazetti is a lightweight as well and can be somewhat polarizing may help the NDP. In the Liberals favour is that the PC's essentially grabbed a warm body off the street and any Tory votes will shift to the Liberals. The key to the Sault is a good ground game. Whoever knocks on the most doors and talks to the most people wins. The NDP do it well in the Sault but Orazetti is not bad at it as well. If the Liberals do lose in the Sault than they are going to be in trouble gaining a majority govt.
07 09 05 Northerner
This could go Liberal or NDP. There is a strong NDP tradition in the Soo. On the other hand, the federal CPC vote is much larger than the PC vote here and Red Tories from Toronto have never gone over well in the North. This means the NDP may get just as many votes in this election as they do federally but still lose because the PC vote is lower.
07 08 09 RyanOntario
See the ndp as a threat to the liberal mpp in this riding . for several reasons one this seat has a tradition of voting ndp in federal and provincial elections .
Another would easily give this to the ndp if Tony Martin was running provincially but he's now the mp.
also the liberals obviously feel this mpp need assistance cause on the news there seems to be cabinet ministers in this riding every week.
the new ndp candidate will not win it by much if he does maybe by 1000 votes but think the ndp will gains seats somewhere in northern ontario and if they do this is a likely seat.
07 06 04 Adam
I am willing to give this one to the NDP. History here says that this is a traditional NDP Northern riding that is held Federally, look to see Mr. Martin here pushing the NDP cause. The ONDP are itching to get this one back cause I don't think that MR. Orazietti's win was that impressive. The Liberals rode a wave of Anti-Tory fever in 2003 and yes this was a steal from the NDP but i think that we can chalk that up to more of an anti-tory move then an anti-NDP one. After a lack-luster, mediocre at best government the Liberals have really done nothing to help out the economy in the North, the Sault has been badly beaten, as has much of the north. Watch the North this election, I think you will see Liberal votes bleed to some degree to the NDP, a wake-up call to the Liberals for their .fiddling while Rome burnt. attitude to the North. NDP Pick-Up
07 05 10 free_thinker
The NDP could be poised for some gains here. The tories are really not a factor at all. With that said, it will be tough to unseat Orazietti who mounted an impressive win last time. It will be an interesting race but the incumbent should hang on. Liberal by 5000 votes.

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