Prediction Changed
8:17 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Scarborough Southwest
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Family Coalition
Progressive Conservative
New Democratic

Scarborough Southwest (91.6%)
Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough Centre (8.4%)
Brad Duguid

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 09 30 MH
A strong PC provincial campaign might well have ousted the Liberals here. That campaign has not developed, and as a result Mr. Berardinetti should be able to hold this without breaking much of a sweat. Of course, there are still ten days left, and if the PC campaign picks up steam, watch out.
07 09 29 Nick J Boragina
This riding is the most interesting part of Scarborough. The city itself developed in a flash between 1955 and 1965, but this was the first part to see the development. Whereas the remainder of Scarborough developed along main roads, this part developed because of it’s nearness to Toronto via Kingston Road. Therefore it is, in a way, the oldest part of the City (although the farms in the northeast might dispute this) This riding also has some density in it around the Victoria Park and Danforth area, though much of that density falls in the neighboring riding. Speaking politically, the riding is also a little more ‘Established’ then other parts of Scarborough, and it’s voted PC and NDP in the past as well, which gives it potential to swing. All of that said, however, it looks like the Liberals have the clear edge here.
07 09 20 Politically Active
This race is the most intriguing one in Scarborough for many reasons because you have a Conservative candidate with impressive credentials but a suspect voting record when it comes to helping out his residents. He has voted consistently with his other Conservative colleagues at the school board for closing schools, eliminating programs and reducing teachers and support staff. The Liberal incumbent has mounted an impressive campaign but dark clouds loom due to the Liberals lacklustre leader, Dalton, along with the incumbent's wife's failled attempt to win office in an area of the riding once represented by his former council collegue Gerry Altobello. The NDP seem to not be a factor but they will hold the balance of power and this will surely have an effect on the result. Many people will be watching this one very closely.
07 09 18 Andrew Cox
Liberal hold.
1) Lorenzo has been extremely low profile in the riding, but has enough machinery in place to get the voters to the polls.
2) Neither opposition candidate is anything special. Had Tory been able to get Pinball to run here, or the NDP perhaps an Avi Lewis, things would be different.
3) The riding is one that will particularly opposed to funding private religious schools with the working class population not of the demographics that send their kids to private schools of any sorts, and quite happy with the multiculturalism built in public schools.
4) One day, perhaps after Hampton is gone as leader, this riding may start back down the road of a three way fight as the NDP can get back to offering something for ordinary people. But for now, it will stay a pretty safe Liberal seat.
07 09 07 A.S.
Berardinetti has the most so-so record of McGuinty's Scarberia caucus, and one wonders whether the controversial machinations behind his wife's '06 municipal candidacy (she barely lost Ward 35 to Heaps) might leave a cloud; Crawford's a decent standard-bearer, but one wonders if now's the time for the return of provincial Tories to deepest Scarberia (even if a tough-on-crime angle *might* help around these parts); and the NDP saved their only Scarberian deposit here, but the days of Stephen Lewis are far and distant, as said sole saved deposit proves. All in all, the washed-out innermost-Scarberianness of the seat leaves a potentially interesting race looking deceptively blah--ideally, this should be as lively and talked-about as Etobicoke-Lakeshore races tend to be, even when the end result's a foregone conclusion...
07 08 31 seamus
The local school trustee, Gary Crawford, should be able to regain this seat that the Tories held previously while in government. Berardinetti has been distant and invisible since he left City Hall and does not have the roots, despite being the current MPP, in the community that Crawford has. Crawford is a past Vice-Chair of the TDSB and is seen as a moderating, fiscally minded trustee on a Board that is seen to be dysfunctional and out-of-touch. Also, the NDP up swing in Toronto (25% in the last poll) will only take votes away from Berardinetti. The local Councillors, Adrian Heaps and Brian Ashton, will be no help for Berardinetti. Particularly Heaps, who lost the Liberal nomination in 2003 to Berardinetti and has since ripped up his Liberal membership. I think you could see both Guildwood and Southwest go Tory in this election.
07 08 10 Marto
OK- I can't believe this is a Liberal Prediction. This is a classic 3 way race - and could be one of the best races to watch on election night. Dalton's broken promises - along with John Tory's new middle of the road party - will make this closer between the two main parties - And the NDP have historically (other than in 03 with Strategic voting) had a solid showing here. I actually would be leaning towards putting this riding in the NDP category.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
Scarborough is now a liberal bastion unlike in 1999 when it was more of a swing area, so the Liberals should hold this one easily.

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