Prediction Changed
4:39 PM 02/06/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Progressive Conservative
Family Coalition

Sudbury (100%)
Hon Rick Bartolucci

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 07 Former Sudburian
In the South End, the Kingsmount area and the Flour Mill Rick is easily winning the sign war over the NDP by about 5 to 1. Battaino and Bartolucci are about even in Copper Cliff. The PC is virtually no where to be seen. I've seen a single PC sign on a lawn and a few others on public property. I've never seen the Tories this absent from my area of town (and they tend to do better here than in New Sudbury). They might actually get less votes than last time as their campaign seems almost non-existent.
07 10 03 Nick J Boragina
NDP support in the Sudbury area has always been concentrated out of town in the Nickel Belt riding. That riding is very competitive this election, and with that much action, they will need all the volunteers they can get their hands on. That means many loyal NDP supporters from Sudbury will have the strong urge, if not party orders, to go out and help out in a riding they can win rather then in this riding, which has historically been a Liberal stronghold. One of the reasons for this is French which is more prominent in this riding then in its neighbour.
07 09 18 Former Sudburian
I haven't been home to check out the sign war, but I'd be very, very, very surprised if the NDP won here. I think they've got the Tories beat for second this time as Bartolucci is bound to lose some support, but I still expect him to have a huge plurality come election day. Federally this seat is a Liberal stronghold, and it looks to be increasingly safe provincially. The latest polls show the NDP is achieving levels of support similar to 2003 (and yet making gains in Toronto). To me that suggests another lop-sided win for the Grits here.
07 09 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
This is a response to Dan's comments below. Welcome to this site. One point of warning, when you listen to people in a riding, very often you are listening to a very narrow cross section of the voting public. Very often this small group shares similar views and will have similar grievences with a politician or party. Unless you are canvassing the entire riding it's hard to get a clear picture. As for the Liberal predictions, history clearly indicates that this is a Liberal riding (they took 68% las election, that is HUGE!). Huge wins like that very, very, very seldome transform into a loss over one election (they would need a steady decline over 2-3 elections to blow a winning margin like that). The protest vote goes NDP (generally) but like you said, most people here could live with either an NDP or Liberal win but most people really don't care. That being said, most will go to the ballot box and vote for the devil they know (the Liberals).
07 09 16 CoffeeShopPollster
In the 2003 election the incumbent won by a crushing majority. Since then, if anything, the liberals here have suffered from over-exposure. Every other day the incumbent's face is beaming from behind one cheque or another. This all seems very positive for the governing party... However there are a number of issues sticking to the local Liberal candidate which keep coming up - where was he when the city's economic engines INCO and Falconbridge were being tossed in an international game of hot potato? - why did he not comment on the loss of manufacturing jobs?
Of course, the New Democrats in the area (particularly the incumbent from Nickel Belt Shelly Martel) have filled in many of the gaps. This is a strong positive for the NDP. Add that to the deep unpopularity of the Liberal Leader, and if this is not a pick up for Dave Battaino and the NDP, it will certainly be close.
07 09 12 nesooite
Safest Liberal seat in Northern Ont. Bartolucci is well known and has been productive in getting Sudbury its share of provincial spending (eg: Northern Medical School). Sudbury has in fact become the defacto capital of Northern Ont. Liberal lock.
07 09 12 A.S.
Considering the scale of Bartolucci's last victory and the fact that no opponent earned back a deposit, think wishfully, opponents. NDP? Too busy trying to hang on to now-open Nickel Belt. PC? It ain't the Davis years no more. Even if, as some say, Liberal support is sagging in the North, the most that might do here is drag things down to recent federal levels...
07 09 12 Dan
I am not a politician or affiliated with a party but I support the Greens. I am picking an NDP win because it seems everyone else I talk to is voting NDP. The only two parties with no shot I would say are obviously the Greens (unfortunately) and the Conservatives. Until I visited this site and saw all the Liberal predictions I thought the NDP had it sewn up, now I'm obviously not so sure. I and most people I know can live with an NDP or Liberal win. I disagree with both the people who are saying the Liberals have this one locked up but also those saying people are ?angry? with the Liberals, I don't think people care that much. Many are reluctant to vote PC though.
07 09 07 Corey
This one is too close to call. There is a lot of anger at the Liberals and Bartolucci but at the same time will people be willing to bounce a sitting cabinet minister? As the campaign unfolds more people will make up their minds. The NDP will get a lot of support here but the Conservatives also have a good organization. If people voted right now I'd pick NDP or a close Liberal hold but it is still too cose to call.
07 05 26 Rural Analyst
Rick Bartolucci to hold by a large margin.
In general, people here don't seem to care about party lines but rather the individual MP or MPP. Since this is federally the safest Liberal seat in Ontario north of Toronto, it makes sense that the provincial candidate wins here easily as well, especially when he is now in Cabinet. The results (i.e. Highway 400 extension, new mines opening) have been seen here lately and they are not going to go to the PC or NDP candidate now. Bartolucci could run in any party, or as an independent, and win here.
07 05 13 Ryan N
Bartolucci win, Liberal hold. Sudbury has solidly supported him numerous times in the past. They're not going to turn their backs on him, especially since he's an important cabinet minister for northern Ontario.
07 05 13 J.B.
Easy Liberal HOLD. Bartolucci has won this Sudbury riding with majority results more than once in the past. With the incumbant advantage, and the fact that he's the 'Minister of Northern Development and Mines' in cabinet, he should be able to retain this territory for the Liberals.
07 05 10 free_thinker
This could be interesting. Bartolucci has a lot to answer for and if the opposing campaigns keep him on the defensive this could get interested. With that said it is important to note that he mounted a large margin last time and is a sitting cabinet minister. This would make him tough to trounce. Finally, I would add that Tory organization in this riding is one of the most prosperous in the province - they even have a riding office open during business hours. If that organization is put to the ground, Bartolucci is kept on the defensive and they run a strong provincial campaign, this seat could change. With that said, I'm not ready to predict anything, just put out some information. Rick Bartolucci is vulnerable on many issues (especially the diamond tax) and the right campaign could unseat him. This is TCTC for the time being.

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