Prediction Changed
1:03 PM 02/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Toronto Centre
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Party for People with Spe
New Democratic
Progressive Conservative

Toronto Centre-Rosedale (98.3%)
Hon George Smitherman
St. Paul's (1.3%)
Hon Michael Bryant
Toronto -Danforth (0.4%)
Peter Tabuns

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 07 michael sullivan
David MacDonald, former MP for Toronto Centre is not married to Alex McDonough as the previous writer stated. While he was involved in a relationship with her, he eventually married someone else.
George Smitherman has earned re-election and with an expected liberal majority, expect a win by a large plurality.
07 10 03 Nick J Boragina
This riding was, at one time, a bellwether. Stephen Harper was born here, and John Tory has a history here. In fact up until 1993 this riding had a PC MP. But that PC MP is currently the husband of Alexa McDonough. While you cannot really judge someone based on who they marry, it does go towards showing that any ‘Tory’ history in this riding is more related to the more moderate brand of red toryism that, while popular in the past, has been really smashed to bits by people like Chretien and McGunity. Looking at those two from modern eyes, you see them as Liberal, but go back to the 1980’s and you’d almost think they were Conservatives. Coincidently, the 1980’s as the last time the Tories did well here...
07 10 01 binriso
I think the only question here is whether or not Smitherman gets above 50%. I say probably not but nonetheless a comfortable victory at least 20% ahead of his nearest rival. NDP and PC's are probably close to each other in 2nd and 3rd but only around 25%(or less) for each.
07 09 20 Politically Active
This is a no brainer. Smitherman has done an amazing job. No one will even come close here. Smitherman is going to position himself well for a bump up in Cabinet. Perhaps Minster of Finance is fitting for a guy that no one thought would be able to handle the Health Care Ministry. Landslide.
07 09 16 MH
George Smitherman may be pugnacious and by no means everybody's favorite politician, but the chances of his meeting defeat in the next election are very close to zero. In spite of strength in TC's northern section, the Tories are out of the race. The NDP should do better south of Bloor Street than it does, but it lacks the horses to challenge the Liberals. Paint this one red.
07 09 11 mb
This has become a very safe Liberal riding. Smitherman may come across as a jerk, but he is respected by his constituents. In the last federal and provincial elections the Liberals even did pretty good in the northern parts of the riding (Rosedale, Summerhill & Moore Park). Chalk this up as an easy Liberal win.
07 09 03 A.S.
Really, the prospects for Smitherman's Toronto Centre ought to be as mundane as those for Michael Bryant's St. Paul's: NDP and PC poles in mutual cancellation, and high cabinet profile working to twist said mutual-cancellation knife a little. Except, of course, for politicking taking more of a candy-coloured psychedelic inner-city whiplash tinge here. That is, it may be a Smitherman snooze in reality, but bet on the opposition making the most of the fantasy...
07 08 26 King of Kensington
John Tory declined to run here, for good reason, as downtown Toronto is Tory-phobic territory. Smitherman will win this one by default even if he is not particularly likeable or respected the way Bill Graham was. With the NDP polling higher than before I expect them to do fairly well but not enough to win, this could only be possible with a very high-profile NDPer running.
07 08 19 Rebel
I'm not certain yet who will take this riding...but George Smitherman's reputation has suffered as he has excelled in the role of Dalton McGuinty's enforcer, if I may use a hockey analogy. The riding's north end (Yorkville/Rosedale) should vote PC and John Tory, running in DVW but living here, nicely personifies the kind of politician the riding likes. Smitherman likely leads at this point but I would be surprised if his margin doesn't shrink at both ends...north to the PCs and south to the NDP.
07 06 18 Rural Analyst
George Smitherman to hold narrowly. Unlike the neighbouring ridings, this is somewhat fiscally conservative due to Rosedale and the large business districts. However, it is the most socially liberal riding in Ontario (being home to Ryerson, a large chunk of the U of T crowd and the gay community), which makes it a perfect fit for the openly gay Smitherman. The PC's should recapture some ground with John Tory as leader and the NDP have made gains in the urban areas as a whole, but it is too much ground to make up.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
George Smithermann is quite popular here and even if Rosedale goes PC this will easily be cancelled out by other parts of the riding. The Tories federally got 40% in Rosedale last federal election, yet only 18% in the whole riding, so Rosedale doesn't have as much clout as it use to in this riding.
07 03 26 CD
No doubt about this one. George Smitherman will return with a strong support in this riding. The health minister is intensely popular and this riding rarely sways from its liberal leaning.
07 03 24 Angry Ontarian
John Tory isn't running here. Yorkville and Rosedale don't hold enough voter-weight to defeat George Smitherman. Plus, he's too high-profile. Liberal hold.

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