Prediction Changed
4:40 PM 02/06/2007

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Welland
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Progressive Conservative
BODNER, RON
Green
GRENIER, MARK
New Democratic
KORMOS, PETER
Liberal
MASTROIANNI, JOHN

Incumbent:
Niagara Centre (75%)
Peter Kormos
Erie-Lincoln (21.8%)
Tim Hudak
Niagara Falls (2.7%)
Kim Craitor
St. Catharines (0.5%)
Hon James J. Bradley

2003 Result (redistributed):
15294
32.57%
10287
21.91%
20187
42.99%




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07 10 08 Nick J Boragina
74.14.23.192
Koromos is popular. He is a known quantity, and politicos know his name across the province. While this might not look like a traditional NDP riding, provincially the party has done well here. The area is not one of booming economic success, and while this riding does contain rural elements, they are essentially rural elements that are not all that hostile to the NDP. I donít think the Greens are going to even appear on the radar, much less win. Thatís wishful thinking. People can murmur away about the NDP here, but theyíll still win.
07 09 25 Bosco
24.150.217.158
I attended the debate tonight in Port Colborne and just can't see how Kormos can lose this riding. Bodner and Mastroianni are fine, I suppose, but they provided no real reason to switch from Kormos save for the stolk: ?Vote for us because our party will form the government.?
The bottom line is that people love Kormos. He's a monster in this area. And if you want to top him, you're going to need to bring more to the table than that.
07 09 11 Red Tory
76.240.69.84
While the Brock liberals may be enthused; while the riding boundaries have been adjusted; while the one-term mayor of Port may have unmasked himself as a Tory; and while a well-known but failed mayoral candidate in Welland is mounting a campaign for the Liberals ... you'd have to be shortsighted or a believer in miracles to think that Welland -- poor, beleaguered Welland -- is going to change horses from the NDP and their most prominent MPP.
Few ridings in the Southern part of the province have suffered more economic decline than Welland in the past decade, and the past few years in particular. Sadly, Welland is undergoing the post-industrial transition to a Walmart economy, and while this election will change little, the NDP is the only party addressing this type of upheaval. Even local fears of the Conservatives won't endanger Kormos's seat. NDP Hold.
07 09 10 The Jackal
69.158.16.119
Regardless how strong the Librals are around the area this is Peter Kormos seat as long as he wants it.
07 09 07 Stacey Peters
139.57.60.29
I had a chance to meet John Mastroianni at Brock yesterday at an event hosted by the campus young Liberals, and talk with him for about 10 minutes. He is a very personable and knowledgeable candidate who wants to do good things for the riding and students. I also met the PC candidate, who didn?t talk to me, he just handed me a box of kraft dinner with his picture on it. I must say that if that is how he is campaigning to students, it is very condescending and says a lot of what the PC party has to offer for students.
Brock students could push this riding and from what I?ve seen, Brock, and this riding will go Liberal.
07 08 29 A.S.
74.99.222.209
Okay. I'm willing to allow for the hypothetical situation of Kormos wearing out his welcome after nearly two decades in office--but, a generic Liberal prediction?!? Look; this is Niagara Region. If we want to think of things in generics, Kormos seepage wouldn't just go Grit; the PCs would be guaranteed a minimum 25% or so, too, even with the Pelham-Port Colborne swap. And sure, said swap *does* notionally swing this seat t/w the Liberals--but that's because blue-collar Port Colborne wasn't in a Kormos seat before. Now that it is, it'll almost certainly go Kormos (remember re the federal seat that the PoCo polls made the biggest 04-06 NDP swing). And when it comes to defeat potential, we'd really be talking Audrey McLaughlin-scaled province-wide wipeout in microcosm here--is that really in the cards? For Peter Kormos, above all? He's a phenomenon unto himself--even *he* could've survived Audrey McLaughlin...
07 08 24 Ted Edmunds
24.150.227.229
Normally Kormos walks away with this riding, but there are a lot of murmurs in the riding of dissatisfaction with how much attention Kormos gives his constituents. And many people realize how infective Kormos has been as a MPP. With the new boundaries, a strong Liberal campaign and a weak NDP campaign could be enough to unseat Kormos.
07 05 06 Angry Ontarian
24.36.172.204
Peter Kormos is extremely popular and will win re-election in Welland. As long as he runs again, NDP will hold here.



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