Prediction Changed
11:58 AM 18/08/2007

Election Prediction Project

York Centre
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Family Coalition
New Democratic
Progressive Conservative

York Centre (87.2%)
Hon Monte Kwinter
Willowdale (12.4%)
David Zimmer
York West (0.4%)
Mario Sergio

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 07 Old Willowdaler
This seat PC? Are you kidding. I remember 1985 knocking on doors With Monte against David Rottenberg when this was Wilson Heights and the Bruce McCaffrey held the adjorning seat of Armourdale (Think back folks Rottenberg held this seat over 20 years ago) and one thing I can tell you Monte maybe getting up there (75 or 76 now) but he his a good campaigner and I can still remember a few duzzies when we knocked doors togehter with Albina ‘eastwood’ Guarnieri (Now Fed MP) and Jack Capatanio (Italian press guy) and ‘Uncle Bobby’ Kaplan in 1985 we trounced both Howard Moscoe and Rottenberg and this seat is going nowhere but Liberal. If the star thinks its going PC just because CHAT happens to sit in it then the editors need a very long vacation and likely some meds (Talk to Smitherman I hear he can get them for you wholesale):)
07 10 05 Observer
I can't imagine why the Toronto Star would predict a Conservative here. Perhaps they are just surprised to find unenergetic campaign where one would expect to find a sacrificial lamb. Whatever the reasoning, John Tory is in meltdown and will likely be replaced with a more Mike Harris like successor, so I think some Toronto voters will be more apprehensive about electing a PC MPP that they will have around long after John Tory is gone.
07 10 01 Nick J Boragina
The Star is saying this riding will go PC? They are so far out to lunch they wont be back till supper! I don’t know what’s up with all these PC Projections. Look at the margin, 27 to 57 when you round it. That’s a 30 point gap The Liberals won more then twice the votes the Tories won here. If he could lose to one of Miller’s 25 ‘deputy mayors’ in the municipal election, and finish so poorly, it spells trouble. Liberal Lock
07 09 17 MH
If ridings like York Centre go Conservative, the Liberals provincially will finish behind the NDP. Not impossible but highly unlikely. Predictions of a Tory victory here are almost certainly the result of wishful thinking. Colour this one red.
07 09 10 The Tsadik from Laurelcrest
Keep an eye on York Centre Suggests Toronto Star
The Toronto Star, Saturday Sept. 8th edition said the York Center riding is the number two riding to watch in the GTA after John Tory (and his opponents) riding.
The chart in the article graphically displays one more piece of evidence confirming the well over due retirement of the incumbent Liberal MPP. This former Liberal stronghold may go as methodically planned to local fluent Italian and Russain speaking media star, Conservative candidate Igor Toutchinski. See Saturday Sept 8th paper, chart on page A 19.
07 09 08 King of Kensington
This is one of the safest Liberal seats in Ontario and yet every election Conservative supporters claim how this time it will different. It won't. Monte Kwinter could do nothing and still cruise to victory.
The PC's won't put any resources here because their chances of winning here is practically zero. The best they can do is take a few Orthodox Jewish votes away from the Liberals which won't put them anywhere close to winning.
07 09 07 jl
Although Igor Toutchinski came in a far second on the municipal campaign, it is worth to note that Feldman was a very popular incumbent, and his plurality was reduced from 75% in the previous election to 50%.
Furthermore, the issue of commuunity safety is proving to be an important concern in the Italian areas of the riding, and the fact that Monte Kwinter, the minister of community safety, is the local MPP, is not lost on the community. The Russian community is certainly significant as well -- for the first time in this riding. I would be hesitant to write off Igor Toutchinski. It will certainly be a cliffhanger, but with sustained effort, Igor may surprise everyone, including Monte.
07 09 06 seamus
Igor ran a very poor municipal campaign in '06 against a Councillor, Mike Feldman, who has been non-existent (despite his ceremonial post as one of the City's two Junior Deputy Mayor to Joe Pantalone's actual Deputy Mayor) since his buddy Mayor Mel Lastman retired. He needed a stronger showing in that election to justify a resourced Tory campaign in York Centre. Obviously, the Tory central campaign has written off this riding. Igor and his team will learn quickly, once the writ is officially dropped, that Tory resources are going to Don Valley West, Scarborough Guildwood, Scarborough Southwest, Willowdale and Etobicoke Centre, Lakeshore and North. Furthermore, the NDP candidate, Claudia Rodriguez has made some questionable choices on her Facebook site that prove she will have little chance to get more than 10%. With no NDP slippage and a poorly resourced Tory campaign and a less than stellar Tory candidate, Monte Kwinter gets an easy pass, allowing him to spend time helping Liberal friends in trouble (read David Zimmer).
07 08 31 A.S.
The net result of Fair Funding, property tax concerns, etc might be enough to hold Monte Kwinter close to his lowest result ever (current perigee: 40% in 1985), but it shan't defeat him: there's still a 1/3-or-so ceiling to the Tory base, and the western half of the seat's more likely to swing NDP, anyway, so you have the two forces in mutual cancellation. Then again, if John Tory's got the winning wind, PC central just might place this on a ?surprise? final-target list--not as daft a notion as it might have been 10 or 20 years ago...
07 08 28 jl
The PC Candidate, Igor Toutchinski, runs various ethnic TV stations, and has great appeal among the ethnic voters of this riding. He speaks Russian and a smattering of Italian -- both groups are well represented in York Centre. Many voters are angered by the threats of increased proeprty tax due to the instability of municipal funding. Furthermore, crime rates are a concern in this riding -- and the current MPP is the minister responsible for that area, and has done nothing to address crime rates in his local riding. I predict the Conservatives by a small margin.
07 08 22 J.K.
I think that a large percent of the population of York Centre will be voting based on the Fair Funding Issue. Unfortunately Monte Kwinter?s party is against it. This may be his downfall this election.
07 08 09 Skiptea
Hard to think of a more safe Liberal seat both federally and provincially. Any Liberal with a pulse could take this riding.

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