Prediction Changed
1:04 PM 02/05/2007

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

York West
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Family Coalition
CARVALHO, JULIA
Independent
NARULA, RAM
Progressive Conservative
O'TOOLE, SHANE
Green
PAGNOTTA, SERGIO
Liberal
SERGIO, MARIO
New Democratic
SHELTON, ANTONI

Incumbent:
York West (92%)
Mario Sergio
York Centre (8%)
Hon Monte Kwinter

2003 Result (redistributed):
16695
68.32%
2542
10.40%
3976
16.27%




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07 10 05 Observer
69.156.98.40
I agree with DLs conditional assessment. Clearly however, none of these condidtions are present. Liberal HOLD.
07 10 05 DL
38.99.136.242
Contrary to popular belief, this part of Toronto voted NDP at the provincial level in just about every election from 1953 to 1995! I agree that it is probably out of reach for the NDP this time given that the Liberals are holding most of their vote at the province-wide level, but if Liberal support were to slide down the road and if the NDP were to get into the mid-20s - a riding like York West would be a definite NDP target. it would certainly be winnable in a byelection.
07 10 03 Nick J Boragina
74.14.23.192
The low number of predictions in this riding is indicative of how strong the Liberal campaign is here. The idea that anyone else is going to win is kind of silly. Id like to say that a 68-16-10 second place finish for the NDP is really meaningless. Thats like saying that someone with an IQ of 101 is the second smartest when comparing him to someone with an IQ of 100 and Albert Einstein. While the NDP might have this one on their list of ridings to grab in the event of a Majority government, the reality is they are going to have to fight for party status, much less official opposition status, much less government status, much less Majority government status. In other words Liberal Lock.
07 09 18 MH
76.64.185.202
If this constituency goes anything but Liberal, hell will have frozen over over just before election day. Any expenditure of time (and money) here by the PCs or the NDP or the Greens is wasted. All parties should commit their resources where the returns are likely to be greater.
07 08 20 A.S.
74.99.222.209
Though I'm hearing rumours that the NDP in York West is preparing to rev up its machine in the footheels of Paul Ferreira's nearby byelection win, so in their case, I'd ramp York West's target-list positioning rather higher than #107 or even #53. Indeed, keeping in mind the Dippers' 2nd place/saved deposit in '03 as well as Mario Sergio's temptingly undistinguished stint at Queen's Park (and a pre-Sergio history of swinging between Liberal and NDP provincially), if the NDP doubles its Toronto caucus, this might be one of those dominos to fall--if they're lucky. And thank Paul Ferreira for it if it happens.
07 04 29 Andrew Cox
74.120.86.22
Liberal hold.
1) In the 2003 election, Mario Sergio received a hair less than 70% of the vote. Its not like he only got two out of every three votes... he got almost 70%. Crazy.
2) No one serious is going to run for an opposition party here.
3) This riding is 107th on both the NDP and PC target lists. They won't put a penny or a moment of their leader's time here.



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