Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009


Prediction Changed
11:56 PM 11/05/2009

Constituency Profile

Marsden, Dennis John
Green Party
Reid, Stephen
Stead, Doug
Thorne, Diane

(Approx. 85% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

BLOY, Harry
(Approx. 15% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 10 MBD
Last election, Thorne was up against a strong Liberal incumbent who went on to become Mayor of Coquitlam and a fairly strong Green candidate with NDP roots.
This time she faces a two nobodies who make the independent candidate look interesting.
I'm calling this NDP.
09 05 08 binriso
With the NDP catching up to the Liberals and now looking like they have a decent chance to win, close seats like this in 05 will stay with the party.
09 04 27 MBD
This district is still too close to call, but there is some good news for the NDP incumbent: the Green Party has a very weak candidate.
This is the introduction from the Green Party website apparently written by the Green candidate himself:
?My name is Stephen Reid; I am running for office in the Coquitlam-Maillardville area for the Green Party. In the last 39 years, my life has taken an interesting turn. I have been to 9 different schools in Canada, but since no 2 school systems are the same in Canada, my education is not as good as it should be.
In grade 11 I dropped out school - my education suffered because of my family's travels. The moving was a big problem in my life but it couldn?t be helped - we had to go where the jobs where.?
I was hoping to vote Green, but this is pathetic. He doesn't even know how to write.
Not to mention this is one of the worst political pitches I've ever read. Your supposed to sell yourself and your ideas, not make excuses about your life not being what it could have been.
09 04 24 Nelson Muntz
Think this riding will go to the incumbent Diane Thorne who has had good media profile on homelessness especially. The BC Liberal challenger seems to me to be one of those nice guys who will finish second. I think this seat could have swung to the BCL had they put forward a more recognizable face (lets be honest, Chamber of Commerce Presidents are only known in one segment of the population). Sign battle seems typical for the area. Largely Thorne in Maillardville, more Marsden as you head north. Good presence of Thorne signs on private property though. Compared to last election, no action on my doorstep or phone from either party. Assume this will heat up in the next 18 days. Right now, calling this one for Diane Thorne and the NDP. Will check back in a week or so with any changes noted.
09 02 10 Predictian
Diane Thorne should take this seat in what will be a somewhat competitive race. She's helped by her own personal popularity in Coquitlam, the abysmal Liberal candidate, and Mike Farnworth's star power in the neighbouring Port Coquitlam riding.
09 02 01 smart voter
This will be a close seat, but Thornes popularity and her incumbent status will carry the day. Thorne by 1400 votes
09 02 01 MBD
This was very close last time. If the NDP are slipping in the polls, as Mustel seems to show, they will lose this. A lot depends on who the Liberals run. Diane Thorne could be doing more as housing critic. Housing is a huge issue in the Lower Mainland.

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