Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

Delta South

Prediction Changed
11:55 PM 11/05/2009
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
NDP
Athaide, Dileep Joseph Anthony
Independent
Drew, Graeme
Independent
Huntington, Vicki
Green Party
Laird, Duane
Liberal
Oppal, Wally
Independent
Shavluk, John William

Incumbent:
RODDICK, Val
Delta South
(100% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001





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09 05 10 Lawrie
207.81.55.49
This is indeed a very tight race, but the tide seems to be turning towards Oppal. People who were considering a vote for VH seemed to be having second thoughts about what an independent can really deliver in Victoria. Again a tight race, but I believe Oppal will sneak in.
09 05 11 Rover
154.20.116.227
When a riding is close success boils down to organization. While Vicki may have her constituency, she has very little organization beyond signs. They are not running a full voter identification effort (beyond some people calling from their homes), they have no office, they have done little canvass, they have no historic voter identification lists and no e-day GOTV campaign worth noting. They also suffered from less adverting due to lack of funds and don't have the benefit of the BC airwar (TV and radio for the major parties). Remember for every local angry person there is another DS voter who works downtown and focuses on less parochial issues. The BC Liberals will deliver the vote and will put it over the top. Much of this depends on how the NDP maintain most of their vote. But the 2 leaders entered this neck and neck so the results will depend much on the local campaigns - here there is no comparison. Advantage Oppal.
09 05 08 PGR
96.50.14.5
I believe Huntington will take this. The local vote has always held an immense amount of power in this riding.
The Liberals have held this riding for a long time because Val Roddick and Fred Gingell were well established members of the community who fought for their constituents (even though it cost them a huge amount of influence within their party, Roddick in particular).
Now, the Liberals have offered up Oppal, which might have been one of the worst moves possible. While being a cabinet member may sway some, the anger in South Delta towards the upper echelons of the Liberal caucus runs deep. Actions such as the Hospital Downgrade, the overriding of municipal jurisdiction in favour of the Windset Greenhouse and the destruction of large sections of the ALR and Burns Bog for the South Fraser Perimeter road are just a handful of the reasons why many are angry.
Huntington has an extremely good chance. She has an established community presence as a municipal councilor and a local volunteer and the liberals have lost their counter with Roddick's retirement. She has also capitalized on the above mentioned anger to drive her campaign.
Probably the most telling is that the Liberals, NDP and Green party all asked Huntington to run on behalf of their parties before tabling their current candidates.
09 05 04 Politics101
75.157.162.13
To Laurence - who is the parachute candidate that you are referring to - Wally Oppal has lived in the riding for a number of years so it is not him. I think Wally will win a close one but I won't put it in the win column just yet.
09 04 30 k4
96.49.142.10
I expect Oppal to take this riding, perhaps by a slightly wider margin than Roddick did in '05. Ultimately, it will come down to human nature, ie: if we elect a someone of higher stature, we will be better represented. Whether true or not, this certainly helped Oppal claim Fraserview in '05 and it will help him here. Many last minute decisions in the ballot booth will go Oppal's way, I believe. That being said, it will still be a fairly tight race.
09 04 27 Laurence Putnam
24.87.80.99
Well, I'm shocked to be saying such a thing, but...I think Vicki is going to do it. No incumbent + parachute candidate + popular, well-backed local councillor with high name recognition, all set against the backdrop of a snoozer of an election, expecting low-turnout = Huntington in a STUNNING upset.
09 04 27 binriso
156.34.210.114
How about the phenomenon of vote splitting between independents? Even though the three independents aren?t close ideologically, the none of the above sentiment that people might not want to vote for a major party, might lead to vote for either of the three independents without really caring which one it is as long as its not a major party. This will probably account for a few hundred votes at most but this would hurt the only one who actually has a chance at winning (Huntigton).
09 04 24 Tommie
24.207.25.94
This is going to be a tight three-way race.
If you had to bet on one candidate, it would probably be Oppal. This continues to be a traditionally BC Liberal riding. It is right-wing, upper middle-class and predominantly white. Many in Vancouver refer to Tsawwassen as ?Little Rhodesia? for good reason. But despite all this, the fact is that the current government is extremely unpopular in this riding because of a number of local issues. It isn?t a lock for the BC Liberals anymore, but it may very well stay in their column.
Don?t count the NDP out of this race, either. The other two major candidates are solidly on the right of the political spectrum, which may nicely split the vote to the advantage of the New Democrats. The candidate is well-received and has run before. It?s also important to note that the NDP usually wins a solid chunk of polls in Ladner ? mostly around the less well to do areas of central Ladner and the ethnoculturally diverse east Ladner (they also came a surprising second in central Tsawwassen polls in 2005). If Athaide can scramble for every vote he can get in Ladner while Huntington and Oppal split Tsawwassen, he may pull ahead.
Huntington makes this race very interesting. She has a great local profile and the local media seems to favour her heavily. Delta South is filled with seniors and they just love this ?nice lady.? She?s been outspoken on Delta council for years and is seen as a real community person. She has a very good chance at taking this one. With that said, her support is centred primarily in Tsawwassen. She?ll need to pick up votes in Ladner if she?s going to win, because Tsawwassen seems split between Oppal and her.
This is just too close to call. It could go any way.
09 04 20 ArmchairPundit
207.6.74.137
I'm leaning to Vicki Huntington on this one.
if the race were tighter, i might say voters would flock to Oppal to keep out the NDP in this staunchly conservative riding.
but Huntington is a formidable campaigner with a formidable machine, for an independent.
this will be a very tight race and i would be very surprised if anyone eclipsed 40% of the vote, but unfortunately for the NDP, there are enough right-wing votes to go around to prevent a vote-split from handing them the seat.
09 03 27 rhudson
24.86.95.245
Vicki Huntington wins this one in a close race. What will be interesting is to see if other independents and/or Greens take enough votes from her to cause her to lose. The NDP has zero chance of taking this riding, it's up to Wally Oppal to see if his BC Liberal machine can get supporters to vote, or if Team Huntington can out do them this time around.
09 03 08 Globe and Mail
99.231.184.167
Oppal gambles on running in Delta South
GARY MASON
March 6, 2009 at 4:39 AM EST
B.C. Attorney-General Wally Oppal will soon announce he is switching ridings in the coming provincial election, The Globe and Mail has learned.
Mr. Oppal will run in Delta South, the riding in which he has lived for several years. He now represents Vancouver-Fraserview.
The move is sure to spark speculation that it paves the way for former West Vancouver police chief Kash Heed to run for the Liberals in Mr. Oppal's old riding. Mr. Heed surprised many recently when he announced he was stepping down as police chief after just 18 months on the job.
Mr. Oppal's move is considered somewhat of a gamble.
Residents are upset over a number of issues, but two in particular: an unsightly power line installed last year that cuts a swath through the centre of the town and the potential negative health effects of the wires, which residents want to be buried underground.
Residents are also angry about the construction of a new perimeter road to accommodate truck traffic, which is expected to increase with the expansion of a nearby container port.
Mr. Oppal, a star in Premier Gordon Campbell's cabinet, is well aware of the issues he'll be facing as a candidate for the governing party.
However sources indicate Mr. Oppal was convinced of the move after seeing two internal party polls that made him confident about his chances.
The former Supreme Court of British Columbia judge will face tough opposition from former Delta councillor Vicki Huntington, who will be running as an independent.
Ms. Huntington nearly won as an independent in the last provincial election, but against a much weaker Liberal candidate.
She was courted by both the Liberals and the NDP to represent them in the May election.
Mr. Oppal is expected to campaign on the promise that he is far more likely to successfully address residents' concerns as a member of the government than would an independent MLA.
09 03 03 VanToria
206.191.104.98
Now there is news of two possible school closures in the riding. It's getting quite a bit of press in local papers. I think Huntington's chances keep going up.
09 01 14 VanToria
206.191.104.98
Vicki Huntington had a great showing in 2005 and things have just gotten worse for the Libs in this riding since then. The latest moves around the Transmission lines... buy people out at a higher expense rather than put the lines underground... will only add to the frustration with the Libs.



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