Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

Kamloops-North Thompson

Prediction Changed
9:57 PM 10/05/2009
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Work Less Party
Broughton, Kesten C.
NDP
Brown, Doug
Liberal
Lake, Terry
BC Refederation Party
Russell, Wayne Allen
Green Party
Snowe, April

Incumbent:
KRUEGER, Kevin
Kamloops-North Thompson
(Approx. 55% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

RICHMOND, Claude
Kamloops
(Approx. 45% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001





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09 05 11 Comfychair Pundit
64.114.88.65
I think there is a surprise here. The Liberal candidate has been working extremely hard and getting some results.
09 05 10 BJ
207.6.146.222
I 2005, the NDP would have take this seat with ~590 votes and that was when the Lib spread province wide was 4%. The latest Mustel, Ipsos, and Innovative Research Group polls all show a ~9% Liberal spread.
Liberal hold/gain by under 1,000 votes.
09 04 20 ArmchairPundit
207.6.74.137
While redistribution did substantially improve the NDP's chances in this riding, the nomination of popular Kamloops Mayor Terry Lake as the B.C. Liberal candidate will hold back the NDP yet again in the critical bellweather of Kamloops.
As mayor and city councillor, Lake oversaw the clean-up of the Tranquille district, additional social housing in the area and the expansion of the nearby Kamloops airport.
By contrast, his opponent has widely reported to have been AWOL from community issues since his last run for office in 2005, while he has acted as an administrator for a band out in Savona.
Compounding these problems for the NDP, their party is strongest in the Tranquille and NorKam part of the riding, where Lake's personal popularity is highest. Meanwhile, the Liberal brand has carried the polls up the river in Clearwater and Barriere for the last several elections.
Finally, the traveling press corps could not help but notice the contrast between the two local campaigns when both Gordon Campbell and Carole James were in the riding last Thursday night. Vaughn Palmer in the Sun said that Campbell outdrew James by a better-than two-to-one margin, underscoring that the traditional NDP organizational advantage may not hold sway in Kamloops this election.
While surely not a landslide, expect a Liberal win by around five points.
09 02 10 TAN
76.69.86.9
Thanks to redistribution, which added NDP-friendly polls north of the Thompson in Kamloops, this is now a notional NDP seat, albeit by a razor-thin margin. With Krueger jumping to the much safer confines of Kamloops-South Thompson, the BC Liberals have turned to former Kamloops mayor Terry Lake to carry the flag, who at the very least gives them credibility. And if there's one seat that the decision to eliminate tolls on the Coquihalla will help win, this is it. Too Close to Call, and I have a hunch it will remain that way until deep into the election.
09 01 18 BJ
70.70.147.85
In 2005, the Liberals won this seat by a margin of ~1,000 votes (48% to 40%). However with the new boundary changes to the riding, the NDP would have won this seat by a margin of ~590 votes. The NDP's strength in this riding is in North Kamloops. One reason why incumbent MLA Kevin Krueger has moved to the now safe Kamloops-South Thompson riding.



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