Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

Kamloops-South Thompson

Prediction Changed
10:05 PM 18/01/2009

Constituency Profile

Dobi, Maria
Friedman, Tom
Krueger, Kevin
Green Party
Markle, Bev

(Approx. 55% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

Kamloops-North Thompson
(Approx. 45% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 04 05 JJD
Every poll I've seen in the last month has suggested a strong lead for the BCL. The redistribution only helps them in this riding, IMHO. Krueger should be back in Victoria for another term when all is said and done here.
09 02 13 p. kelly
Internal polling from the BC Liberals suggests the NDP has a 9 point lead province wide, including leads in previously thought Liberal-safe seats...this is one of them. Kevin Kruger is in trouble here. You all know the significance of this seat - the party that wins Kamloops, wins Victoria.
09 02 10 TAN
I'm basically in agreement with the earlier comments. The Boundary Commission's decision to stick by their guns and run the boundary down the river (despite protestations from the incumbent MLAs) kills the Kamloops riding of old, which is possibly the longest-running bellwether seat in the country. Krueger (fun fact that could come in handy playing Trivial Pursuit: BC Politics Edition--unlike pretty much every other member of the BC Liberal Interior Caucus, he hails from the fed-Lib side of the family tree) has followed the probably-not-federal-Liberal votes he relies on to get elected into the new seat of Kamloops-South Thompson. Given broader trends, at this point I can't foresee them not coming through for him.
09 01 19 VanToria
BJ is spot on. Kreuger moved out for a reason. He wanted the safe riding. There will be no incumbent advantage for the BC Liberals here.
09 01 18 BJ
In 2005, the Liberals held this seat by a margin of 1,375 votes over the NDP (48% to 42%). With riding boundary changes, that margin of victory would have been ~3,375 votes turning this riding into a relatively safe Liberal seat. That's one reason why Kamloops North Thompson MLA Kevin Krueger has moved here to contest the 2009 election.

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