Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

Vancouver-False Creek

Prediction Changed
3:10 PM 26/04/2009

Constituency Profile

BC Refederation Party
Grecz, Otto
Halliday, Michael R.
Hutchinson, David Robert
Green Party
Kettlewell, Damian
McNeil, Mary
Parente, Jordan

HERBERT, Spencer
(Approx. 65% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

McGINN, Jenn
(Approx. 15% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

Vancouver-Point Grey
(Approx. 15% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

KWAN, Jenny
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant
(Approx. 5% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 10 Sam Zaharia
No one seems to notice that there is a Conservative candidate in this riding. Now I'm not saying this candidate will win but one has to consider that people who vote Conservative at the federal level tend to vote Liberal provincially. This split could make some real trouble for McNeil. Much like in Vernon, I would expect a very tight three or four way race.
09 05 09 Seth
Yaletown and Coal Harbour Liberals were able to outnumber all of the West End's NDP voters and send Lorne Mayencourt to Victoria. Twice. Now the West End is gone from this riding. False Creek South will have its share of NDP voters, but not nearly enough to replace those lost from the West End. And the NDP will lose more votes to the Greens than ever before. Easy Liberal pickup.
09 05 09
Mary McNeil will win this. This is the centre-right-leaning portion of urban Downtown Vancouver which is uncomfortable with the leftist economic policies of the B.C. NDP.
09 05 09
I have noticed the number of BC Liberal signs in this riding is significant. The fact that there are fewer single family residences in VFC makes the number of signs take on more importance. The presence of BC Liberal canvassers on the downtown streets is also noticeable. I think the riding is a safe seat for the BC Liberal candidate.
09 05 08 political watcher
one thing the NDP have going for them is that 52% of the residents in this riding rent according to 2006 census and a large portion spend over 30% of their income on rent. That could put this riding in the NDP if they are waking up by following the news about the changes the liberals made to the residential tenancy act.
09 05 07 binriso
I think the NDP will hold on, but it will obviously be very close. Voter turnout will be low, and frankly the NDP won by 6% in the byelection, even though it was a low turnout it was still several hundred votes difference. Id say by 500 votes this time.
09 04 28 False Creek Forecaster
Gimme a break.
Word on the doorstep is BC Lib candidate McNeil's Harper Tory ties are frightening off federal Libs. Wait till they learn about her massive support of private health care. Woohoo!
Plus, to see how this election may go just take a look at how the COPE/Vision mayoral candidate (read former NDP MLA now Mayor Gregor Robertson) fared in the civic election in the same False Creek polls last November (See http://vancouver.ca/electionresults2008/#mayorrace). He kicked Tory/NPA Peter Ladner's ass so bad it still smarts I bet.
Oh, and one last thing -- campaign momentum seems to be coming to the BCNDP. Newest Angus Reid poll out today shows a three-point gap. Even with the margin of error, this is a great leap forward by the NDP over the 17-point lead in the April 14 Mustel poll.
09 04 26 long time political watcher
It seems that those who advocated placing this riding in the just cause of facebook photos spoke too soon the next day Liberal candidates were dodged by their own problems one cabinet minister lost his license another candidate was arrested for drunk driving (as was Gordon Campbell) The NDP has their replacement and a well oiled machine can accomplish a lot in 3 weeks. Their candidate can also ride Carole James coattails if she does well in the televised leaders? debate and the central party is effective with newspaper and television ads.
09 04 23
Current Prediction: Mary McNeil wins by a healthy margin. She is high profile candidate, being the former CEO of the BC Cancer Foundation. The BC Liberals resonate well in this wealthier area of Vancouver's downtown urban core (Yaletown, etc.). Ray Lam's resignation in itself did not necessarily boost McNeil's chances per se, but it did cripple the BC NDP in that now they will have to find a new candidate and re-organize.
09 04 22 Tyler Durden
When are the ?experts? at electionprediction.org going to move this now ?slam dunk? into the BCL camp ???
09 04 20
The NDP candidate has been forced to resign after showing poor judgment in posting some photos of questionable taste on his Facebook page. This riding was already tilting heavily in favour of the Liberals, but I'd say this seals the deal.
09 04 20 Laurence Putnam
Don't make the mistake of blowing the recent ?controversy? out of proportion. Few will care about Ray Lam's facebook page - however, the candidate who will be stepping into his place will have but three weeks to raise their name recognition, starting from scratch. That alone I think sinks the NDP here, and that's without going into the riding's rapid increase in wealth over the last decade and what will be an ultimately quixotic but nevertheless impactful Green campaign that will erode NDP support.
09 04 20 ArmchairPundit
Check the polls from last time, this should be a safe Liberal seat. In 2005, Lorne Mayencourt eked out a close victory in a riding that encompassed False Creek and the West End. He got killed in the West End (now a solid NDP riding), but won on the strength of the affluent voters in Yaletown and South Downtown.
When the Athlete's Village is populated by Vancouver's economic elite following the Olympics, this riding will be an even safer Liberal bastion.
If you're still not convinced, the NDP candidate Ray Lam stepped down today, so Mary McNeil will be sent to Victoria on election day.
09 04 20 binriso
The troubles surrounding the NDP in this riding are fairly well-publicized and will probably make it impossible for them to win this riding with a new candidate so quickly nominated. Liberals should take this riding(it is technically an NDP riding because most of it is represented currently by an NDP member) and will probably hold on to all of their existing seats in Vancouver.
But then again, the ADQ in Quebec won two ridings in 2007 where they replaced their candidate after a controversy so maybe theres still a slight glimmer of hope for the NDP.
09 04 19 Neal Whiteside
Now that Ray Lam has dropped out, Damian Kettlewell has a real shot at this riding. Damian is a great campaigner (as evidenced by the vote total he got in his inaugural campaign against Gordon Campbell in Point Grey. Against a past federal conservative candidate and No (or a parachute) NDP candidate; why not win?
09 04 20 bobby
The NDP candidate just resigned from this riding.
I would suggest that given the timing of his departure that this should be put securely into the BC Liberal side.
09 04 19 Jeff Paetkau
According to CTV Ray Lam (NDP) is no longer running.
09 04 18 Westerner
In 2005, Lorne Mayencourt managed to hold Vancouver-Burrard by a hair despite the NDP-leaning West End by winning Coal Harbour and Yaletown by big margins. While Coal Harbour is part of the new West End riding, Yaletown accounts for 65% of the new riding. East Kits accounts for 15% and is also strongly Liberal. The NDP won Fairview (15% of new riding) by 2.7% last time due to the strength of their candidate, who is now Mayor, and would be lucky to do as well this time. This is an easy win for the Liberals
09 04 16 Intelligence
Mike Sather ran for mayor in Maple Ridge last year and finished a distant third. He's a poor candidate that the community considers a mean and annoying constant complainer. He's out, guaranteed
09 02 25 binriso
Of course, the redistributed results would give the Liberals something like a 12% victory here, but 2 of the ridings that had by-elections that the NDP won fairly comfortably make up 80% of this riding. Last election the NDP were actually behind the Liberals in Vancouver something like 45-44 or something with both having 5 seats so a bit of movement in voters Liberal to NDP will give the NDP a few more marginal seats like Fairview, False Creek, West End and Fraserview. (heck maybe even the Premiers seat).
09 02 25 p. kelly
The demographics might suggest a tilt to the liberals, but in every riding, Gordon Campbell is on the ballot. They might like the local liberal candidate, but her Liberal party affiliation is the liability...and I'm not so certain the demographics suggest any advantage for the BC Liberals; given that the Olympic Village and other P3's the Province has mishandled might trigger tax increases (on mortgage paying homeowners) as the city has to bail them out.
09 02 23 Gabe
I've heard that Ray Lam - a Vision Vancouver-affiliated planning commissioner with an impressive nonprofit resume - will be running for the NDP. This seems like a really pragmatic pick for the NDP; Lam doesn't seem to have any history whatsoever with the party or the labour movement, but he has ample experience fundraising and dealing with the media.
Still, with Mary McNeil's BC Cancer experience, the Liberals' high poll numbers, and the riding's affluent voters - not to mention the high-profile Green candidate who is likely to siphon off a substantial quantity of progressive votes - this race is the Liberals' to lose.
09 02 11 vancouverpointgreen
An interesting new riding that has some of the greenest polls in the province. Deputy Leader Damian Kettlewell may surprise his advocates as he did last time in Vancouver Point Grey in 2005 against the Premier and Mel Lehan. Adrianne Carr ran here federally and was financed by the Green Party of Canada with substantial results. Voters are more likely to vote Green at the provincial level. The ?none of the above? category may push undecided voters to take a chance with the Greens.
09 01 18 p. kelly
The supposed advantage for the BC Liberals in the local demographics is on paper only. This area might be full of owner occupied condo owners, but imagine how furious they are likely to be with the insane cost overruns on the althletes village - and the likely tax increases to offset the losses incurred as a result.
09 01 18 BJ
Lorne Mayencourt only retained the long-time NDP stronghold of Vancouver Burrard in 2005 by a slim 11 votes, due to the massive development of owner-occupier condominiums east of Burrard St. on North False Creek and Yaletown. The other half of the riding, Vancouver Est-End, went strongly in favour of the NDP. With additional condominiums constructed during the 4-year interim in this area, this riding should be a relatively easy win for the Liberals.
09 01 16 Politics101
This riding is a Liberal gain in that it has the highest number of Fry and Mayencourt supporters in the downtown core and the Liberals are running Mary McNeil - former BC Cancer agency head and 11 year resident of the riding - she has had her campaign team in place for some time and is raring to go.
This will be the riding that I watch the closest as it is the one that I now vote in.

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