Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2011

Avalon


Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 22:42:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Andrews, Scott

Crowder, Matt

Dawe, Randy Wayne

Fuchs, Matthew Martin

Manning, Fabian

Incumbent:
Scott Andrews

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • bonavista-trinity-conception (140/290 Polls)
  • st-johns-east (38/224 Polls)
  • st-johns-west (59/226 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


  •  


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    11 05 03 Avalon Art
    174.116.112.161
    Nice pick in Avalon - missed that one. Also missed Labrador and SJSMP.
    4 for 7 = 57%. Pretty lame predictions.
    Told you so.
    11 05 01
    174.116.112.161
    NDP strength in St. John's won't translate in Avalon. This is a two horse race.
    Andrews is popular and lives in the most populated area of the riding.
    Manning brought out 100 people for the PM's visit (smallest rally of the entire campaign for Harper). People are poisoned against Harper and Manning. Translates to a Libral win.
    11 04 30 Petipas
    24.137.108.128
    Scott's toast in this one. Fabian has been relentless with his campaigning, and Scott has suffered from the national credibility loss from the Liberals. Safest bet for a Conservative in NL, Fabian by 4000+ proving Scott never would have gotten elected if it wasn't for Danny.
    11 04 30 binriso
    142.167.166.13
    This one is going to be a close one. The former NDP candidate is running as an independent and he was also an ex-Alliance candidate too, weird eh? Seems like that would hurt the Conservatives and NDP a little before the Liberals. Also Manning has lost a lot of his lustre as a maverick politician (This isnt 2005) and is now merely a Harper lackey in the Senate. And an expensive one at that since he is one of the biggest spenders on travel expenses. Have to give the nod to the Liberals here since they are holding fairly firm in the Atlantic region in spite of being way down elsewhere.
    11 04 29 Micheal
    24.137.93.214
    Liberals will win this one, Andrews has a 68% approval rating from Tele Link poll, and with NDP candidate from outside the Riding the orange wave will not have enought time to reach the shore here.
    11 04 28 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.247
    Like Siobhan Coady, Scott Andrews benefits from being the incumbent and being ahead in a recent poll with good approval ratings. The question is whether the margin he received in the recent poll will go down because of a declining Liberal vote or increasing NDP vote. Andrews could still edge it out here if voters who don't want the Cons pick him. Voters here probably know the NDP finished 3rd here last time and that they are not in contention to beat the Cons. The question is whether he can capitalize from that.
    11 04 24 odude22
    173.32.205.82
    Let us take a closer look at this one and start beginning:
    Election 2008: LIB 45%, CPC 35%, NDP 17%
    1.Scott Andrews has gained an incredible amount of respect in this riding. He has worked tirelessly for the people of Avalon, and the people appreciate it.
    LIB +5, CPC -3, NDP -2
    2.Fabian Manning is back and putting up a decent fight. Those who want NL to have a seat in a Cabinet will try to make sure NL has seats from the three major parties.
    LIB -3, CPC +4, NDP -1
    3.Though NDP Support increases across the board, with this riding up in the air, the NDP candidate virtually unknown and a chance of a right-wing victory there will be strategic voting taking place.
    LIB +4, CPC -1, NDP -3
    4.High profile conservatives such as Stephen Harper (x2 during the campaign), Peter McKay, and Loyola Sullivan have been visiting the riding all throughout the election campaign, and much before.
    LIB -3, CPC +4, NDP -1
    5.Based on just seeing signs around the district one can just notice that compared to last election the number of Liberal signs vs. Conservative signs is totally different. As well, there are more NDP signs this time around. But, Avalon is painted Liberal red.
    LIB +3, CPC -4, NDP +1
    Predicted Results: LIB 51%, CPC 35%, NDP 11%
    Conservative support remains steady and unmoved, however there will be a move from the NDP to the Liberals to make sure Manning stays OUT of Ottawa. Liberal win!
    11 04 23 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.247
    NTV/Telelink Poll: Liberals: 30.4%, Conservatives: 27.8%, NDP: 4.8%
    Very close race between Scott Andrews and Fabian Manning according to this poll, although one factor in favour of Andrews is the 68% approval rating.
    http://ntv.ca/video/?p=12907
    11 04 22 rabbit
    99.236.242.239
    assume Manning will win- reported poll shows he is close to Liberal - will be close assumption that difference will be that NFD voters will want at least one Tory from NFLD - shocked at how low NDP vote so low in reported poll - compared to neighbouring st John's seats - as if the NDP vote being limited deliberately here- to allow Liberal to hold seat - if this type of voting decisions being made across Canada- will be a smaller minority for Tories on may 2
    11 04 21 Brian
    72.28.80.14
    New polling in the riding shows Liberals ahead by 48 - 44 - too close to call.
    11 04 21 Gracie
    142.163.60.14
    Its a tight race, but it appears that Manning will win with a small margin. People are concerned that if they don't send Manning to Ottawa as an elected MP, the Muskrat falls project will never see light of day.
    11 04 20 Pc
    142.163.75.110
    NTV telelink poll, Andrews is leading, and satisfaction rate with Andrews at 70 percent, he'll win it again by 10 percent like last time, ABC is alive and well in BL
    11 04 17 Pmc
    142.163.66.54
    Andrews is winning the ground game, both local newscasts main political commentators commented on this past Friday's news that Manning is facing a major uphill battle to overtake Andrews. People still feel the ABC against Manning and Harper, and constituents are happy that Andrews' office works hard on their behalf and TRUST him. Andrews also attends all of the riding events, and that bodes well for him. When you factor these things in, plus the incumbency bonus points, Andrews will increase his vote and retain the seat. I predict he wins by 10-15 percent margin over Manning.
    11 04 17 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.247
    I find this riding a little more difficult to assess than Saint John's South-Mount Pearl. On the one hand, Scott Andrews won by a much larger margin here than Siobahn Coady did in SJS-MP, but on the other hand he could be more vulnerable. Andrews won by 10 points over Fabian Manning, but Manning was also popular on his initial election in 2006 and won by an even larger margin. The question is how much lingering distrust there is here of Stephen Harper, and how trusted Fabian Manning himself is. If a lot of the anger has subsided, Manning may be able to get back in. If not, Andrews may be able to get re-elected. I would be interested to see the polls Jordan refers to showing Andrews ahead. If there are such polls, they could be useful in helping us make a prediction.
    11 04 16 The Jackal
    74.12.43.2
    Both Democraticspace and threehunderdandeight.com are calling this a landslide for Fabian Manning. I'm not saying this is written in stone but with CPC polls high in Atlantic Canada I say this is accurate.
    11 04 14 Jordan
    174.116.120.203
    I think Scott Andrews will take this, I've heard that polling before the campaign and now in the middle of the campaign show that Fabian Manning has an uphill battle so I don't think he's going to turn it around.
    11 04 14 MC
    142.162.192.230
    Scott Andrews will put up more of a fight than many expect. But it will not be enough. This Senator's constant giving out of taxpayer money over the past couple years will be what most will remember, and not broken promises of the past. NL's own version of Judas is going back to the House.
    Manning by about 2,000.
    11 04 13 Kevinski
    207.34.50.60
    This one is simply TCTC at this point. I admit to frustration with the 'ABC' ranters who just keep stating how this riding and others is such and such and no way that anyone will vote for Harper. Check the stats on the last election on this site. 27 incorrect predictions and 20 of them were Tory pick ups from the call - in large part due to the plethora of 'I hate the Conservatives' submissions. Polls and on the ground info are worth a lot more and internal polling with both the Liberals and Conservatives in Avalon have this a tight horse-race.
    11 04 10 Avalon Art
    99.240.132.62
    Andrews is winning the ground game in a landslide. Lawn signs on voters property are at least 5 to 1.
    No matter how many staffers the Conservatives send down from Ottawa (Office of Jason Kenney) and no matter how much Alberta money is shipped in ($24,000 unpaid loan last election) to Newfoundland, Avalon is a traditional Liberal seat that will remain Liberal.
    11 04 10 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    updating prediction to possible tory pick up , its funny how things change each election , newfoundland was a tory waste land in 08 but there now poised to gain back some seats . its very doutful they won't win back at least 1 seat and 2-3 is not entirely impossible if trends continue . Fabian Manning is a well known politician in the area and people will repsect the fact he gave up senate seat to instead get a mandate from the voters . Scott Andrews has done little for the riding during his time in opposition and has to run on record of being mp who flipped vote on long gun registry . Fabian Manning would of never lost his seat in the first place if not for abc campaign as he was a popular mp and it appears increasingly possible he gets this riding back.
    11 04 05 Jordan
    174.116.120.203
    This is too close to call I think. Party polls by the CPC showed that Fabian Manning was unpopular and couldn't win, Scott Andrews doesn't seem to be too popular either though. I think this will go down to which party is leading in the polls nationally and of course the candidates campaigning.
    11 04 03 John
    66.48.175.48
    Randy makes a good point. It is likely the Conservatives will form the next federal government. The question is really whether it is a minority or a majority. Either way, Newfoundland would benefit from having a Conservative MP in the House of Commons.
    Whether or not that will happen is anybody's guess. Most likely ridings to go Conservative would be the two too-close-to-call seats. This one and St. John's South-Mount Pearl.
    Still, I won't be the family farm on eithr riding going Conservative.
    11 04 02 J Keller
    142.177.100.229
    Manning. Six reasons:
    1. While any Liberal or NDP coalition would want to back Lower Churchill, if the Bloc is required to support them, it could be in danger. It will take a clear statement by Iggy and Layton favouring the project to blunt this as an issue. That may cost them in some circles in Quebec. This might help beat Harper as it may cause some Liberal or NDP votes to go Bloc in Quebec City where they beat Conservatives, but their corrupt selfish and blindly ultra-federalist advisers won't see it that way. So advantage here is to Harper, who has already given up on Quebec's elites.
    2. Manning would have won if Williams had not clearly targetted him. Some think the whole ABC matter was about Manning personally. Manning also has Harper's favour. So if NL wants a cabinet minister, but only one, Manning is the one they will choose.
    3. NDP is a rising force in Atlantic Canada, but there will be little vote swapping publicity in NL because in general these are two horse races. If this election is the one where NDP surges, then, Liberals get surprised.
    4. Williams' strong backing of Dion and his green agenda wasn't so popular with the oil industry, which will now put its dirty weight behind Harper. After all if everyone is paying attention to the filthy Tar Sands, dangers of a subarctic offshore oil spill from the NL industry are less visible.
    5. Corruption. Conservatives in NL are quite willing to promise favours and public funds for votes and opinion leaders public support. Sensing a Conservative government will bring the pack of thieves around to the Cons.
    6. Liberals' fused provincial-federal organization has lost some key staff lately and seems to have no momentum. They haven't for instance been able to capitalize on Dunderdale's inexperience, and the Liberal leader made a few possibly-sexist remarks regarding what Dunderdale was doing for Harper.
    Given all that, to call this one riding Conservative seems no great reach.
    I would call all the other NL ridings too close to call, but I have no specific information, and think vote swapping will reach the urban ones.
    11 04 01 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    In the last election, Manning lost due to William's ABC Campaign. With the Churchill Falls hydroelectric promise as well as the fact many provincial PC cabinet ministers are supporting the Tories is no doubt good news for them. At the same time Manning doesn't quite have the personal popularity he did in 2006 when he first ran. Until I see an actual poll of how the Tories are doing in Newfoundland, I will leave this as too close to call.
    11 03 31
    99.240.132.62
    A million dollar Senator with his billion dollar loan guarantee (provided the project meets 'certain criteria')....
    Really... just how stupid do Stephen Harper and Senator Manning think the people of Avalon are.
    And Manning has hauled out election signs with ‘re-elect’ on them. Not only is the candidate recycled, so are his signs. Has to be a first for someone who LOST the last election.
    11 03 30 Randy
    173.210.164.184
    Last night on the news when they were talking to Danny Williams It sounded like he did not want to talk about the ‘abc’ that he started last election nor did Kathy Dunderdale. In fact she said without hesitation that she needs the support of the federal goverment to help with NL's power project. So if she throws her support behind the conservative party the whole province will surely change their votes and move closer to the conservatives as they will be the next government. What is still not clear is if it will be a majority or another minority.
    11 03 29 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    198.96.35.248
    Time has healed all the wounds of the ABC campaign, and Manning will win back his old riding in a landslide.
    11 03 28 odude22
    173.32.205.82
    Fabian Manning has just announced his intention to run for the Conservatives in this riding. This should be interesting...
    11 03 29 ATGM
    115.30.172.37
    The Conservatives are up by at least 25% in N&L while the Liberals are down at least 10-15% points. Given that Andrews only won by 10%, and the fact that he has been largely a non-entity in the house I can't see him winning.
    11 03 27 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    174.89.196.209
    Manning is running again? Yeah it's TCTC at the moment. Looks like the senate has become a repository for failed MPs and first-time hopefuls. Very sad really, so much for the chamber of sober second thought.
    11 03 27 Christopher
    216.198.139.38
    The people have already voted against Fabian Manning once. Scott Andrews has worked hard. He will be re-elected.
    11 03 27 Tony Ducey
    76.11.85.66
    Apparently Fabian Manning will announce next week he is going to be running in this election. With the ABC campaign not going this election, expect a win here for Fabian.
    11 03 26 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.247
    Reports late tonight are coming out that Fabian Manning is expected to quit the Senate and run in Avalon. Will he be able to win his seat back despite being rejected by voters in 2008? Will the incumbent advantage be enough to help Scott Andrews fend him off? We'll need to see the Newfoundland polls once the election gets going.
    11 03 25 Avalon Art
    209.226.201.250
    Some may say that this riding will be close, but many of those are the same people who thought it would be close the last time. Andrews thumped Fabian Manning and with 2 years under his belt and a record of success in Ottawa and in the riding, there seems no real reason to believe that the voters would elect anyone but Scott Andrews once again.
    And really, what has changed? The official ABC is over, but do Newfoundlanders really like Stephen Harper more now than they did 2 years ago?
    11 03 02 Junkie Politico
    173.212.65.205
    Recent polls suggest that calling so many ridings in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) Liberal is far too premature. A Telelink poll conducted for NTV put the Tories at 51% (granted the federal vote question was asked after a provincial vote question, which may have slightly inflated the federal Conservative numbers as the provincial Tories are extremely popular here). However, a poll released last week by Angus-Reid put the federal Tories at 42% in NL, ahead of the Liberals at 36%. It would be impossible for the Conservatives to increase from 17% of the vote in 2008 to over 40% and not win at least one seat, Avalon being the most likely candidate. However, Random-Burin-St. George's and Bonavista-Exploits are also strong contenders for returning to the Tory fold, and perhaps the St. John's seats as well, where only the presence of popular incumbents makes a Tory resurgence in the capital uncertain. Simply put, polls confirm that a major shift is underway in NL and it would be wise to consider most NL seats as too early to call.
    11 02 18 pmc
    208.97.95.154
    Scott Andrews is a strong constituency person/representative, he is very well organized, and is a campaigning machine.........that's hard to be beat. And he has not missed a riding event since elected....people will remember that. He has also spent a lot of time engaging the youth in his district, most of whom never voted, look for them to support Andrews and push his numbers higher in the next vote. The PC candidate is rumoured to be former provincial cabinet minister John Ottenheimer (ST. JOHN’S EAST) was his provincial riding, the people of Avalon will not appreciate Harper sending in a parachute candidate to try and represent them. Harper has thawed the ice in NL, but not enough to knock off Andrews. This riding will stay with Liberal, as it has historically.
    10 12 21 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Now that Danny Williams has retired its expected that the federal conservatives will become competitive again in at least a few of Newfoundlands ridings. that doesn't mean there going to necessary win all of them but they'll certaintly do better than during ABC election. i'm not sure if Fabian Manning will ever run here again or if he's comfortable with senate post. but there might also be a few other potential conservative candidates who could make a strong run in the riding. but it is a riding that has historically favoured the liberals with a few conservative victories from time to time but those mp's never got re-elected . the conservatives face a long road to full recovery here but if they do begin to recover it most likely be in avalon peninsula / st johns area.
    10 04 24 ridingbyriding
    198.96.35.219
    (I am Nick J Boragina from below)
    As I said a year ago, time heals all wounds. Now that we are looking at a likely fall 2010 election, and now that Williams is no longer angry at Harper, there are some very good chances the Tories can re-take this riding.
    10 03 26 Micheal
    142.68.24.185
    Liberal win here! Andrews is a good constituency person, and the votes will show there support for his efforts.Look for the NDP to move into second spot and remain there til at least Harper moves on.
    09 10 03 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    74.13.73.190
    The was close last time because of Manning running for the CPC. None the less, the Liberals had no real growth in vote and they won because the NDP stole some of the CPC vote but more so because conservative voters stayed home (unlike elsewhere where it was Liberal voters). We think that the stay at home voters would return to the CPC but other ?Manning voters? will go to other parties. Could the NDP actually creep up to second place and maybe be a challenger in a subsequent electionprediction-go-round?
    09 09 12
    99.232.162.133
    Re a ?best shot?--yes, Avalon's as critical a starting point as any if CPC want to re-establish a Newfie foothold (and I'll withhold a prediction for that very reason); but let's be honest: relative to what was happening across the province, Fabian Manning running again skewed the '08 result. (Otherwise, it would have been quite plausible for the *NDP*--with an ex-Conservative candidate in Randy Dawe, interestingly enough--to assume second place, instead.) And remember that pre-Manning, John Efford held it solidly for the Liberals--jury's out whether Scott Andrews has, or even needs, an Efford-esque pull to hold...
    09 09 01 binriso
    156.34.209.15
    Without Manning the CPC probably lose alot of votes, which will likely offset any gains they make letting the Liberals win, although the election after next theyll have a better chance.
    09 09 01 Nick J Boragina
    74.14.107.105
    Time heals all wounds. The Tories have their best shot right here in Avalon (in the province) but Newfoundlanders are still irked at the federal government. The only way the Tories will win this seat is if there is a spring election, with a much better chance if we wait to the fall of 2010. With a fall 2009 election (as it looks at the moment) the Liberals will retake this seat.
    09 08 30 Stevo
    99.251.76.167
    Danny Williams called a truce after the 2008 election. His ABC campaign is over and he won't rekindle it, there's no reason to do so. I expect that he'll keep as low a profile in the next federal election as provincial premiers normally do.
    That said, the reputation of the Harper-led Tories has been tarnished in Newfoundland, probably beyond repair (unfairly, in my opinion, but there's no denying it). I don't see much hope of the party regaining any seats in NF while Harper is leader.
    09 08 27 wyatt
    24.235.142.160
    If the Tory plea for a majority gains momentum, Newfoundland won't want to be shut out. 3,300 votes isn't safe by any means, and you can bet that the rock will want it's piece of the pie.
    09 08 25 NorthernRaven
    130.209.74.226
    Now that Manning is in the Senate, unless an exceptional Conservative candidate runs, expect Scott Andrews to hold, especially if Premier Danny Williams runs the ABC campaign again.



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