Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2011

St. John's East


Prediction Changed
2009-08-22 17:22:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Allan, John

Byrne, Jerry

Harris, Jack

Miller, Robert

Incumbent:
Jack Harris

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • st-johns-east (170/224 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


  •  


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    11 04 25 DK
    134.153.145.206
    No question that Harris will walk away with this again. None.
    11 04 22 WAC
    99.230.244.3
    After riding poll which gave the NDP something like 65% of decided voter, I will to change my earlier prediction and call this a safe NDP seat.
    11 04 21 binriso
    142.167.166.13
    In riding poll shows Harris near 70 percent of decided voters, though the Conservatives have rebounded to take most of the remaining 30 percent.
    11 04 20 NDP lock
    67.193.110.55
    Latest NTV/Telelink poll
    SJE Poll: NDP 44.9; CPC 16.6; LPC 2.9; GPC 1.0; UND 27.8; REF 6.9; SAMPLE 421; MOE +/-4.8
    Good luck to the Libs getting their deposit back
    11 04 10 Teddy Boragina
    174.118.61.19
    People who are willing to vote Liberal, will not. In this riding they will vote for Harris to make sure the Conservatives stay out. Add to that Harris' personal vote (IE people who trust him, even though they might disagree with NDP policies) and you certainly have enough support for him to hold off the CPC.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    This has traditionally been a Tory stronghold but went NDP during Williams' ABC campaign. While the Tories will probably regain some of their lost ground this should stay NDP as long as Jack Harris is around considering how popular he is. Off course once he leaves then I expect this to go back to either the Tories or Liberals, but that is in a future election anyways
    11 03 29 ATGM
    115.30.172.37
    TCTC. Up until 2008, the Conservatives have never finished with less than 35% in this riding going back to the 1950's, and that is during the worst of times. I would expect to take about 40% of the vote here, meaning that for Harris to win, the Liberal vote has to tank here as badly as they did last election.
    11 03 26 WAC
    99.230.244.3
    I agree with L. O'Brien that it might be to early to call this one for the NDP. This is a traditional Tory seat and last election was such an aberration in terms of party support that its difficult to use that result to predict anything going forward. Be interesting to see if Jack Harris' personal popularity is enough to hold against what appears to be a rising blue tide in Newfoundland. TCTC.
    11 03 27 Tony Ducey
    76.11.85.66
    The CPC make this close but I really think the NDp and Jack Harris win this riding.
    11 03 22 L. O'Brien
    99.246.114.120
    A lot has changed since the last postings on the NL ridings. The NDP have dropped from 40% to 7.6% as of the last riding by riding poll for NL. (http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/02/15/john-ivison-tories-set-for-big-gains-in-newfoundland/) this has to mean Jack Harris is down considerably. Combine that with the fact that the Conservatives have a well known and very well respected candidate in St. John's East in Jerry Byrne (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2011/01/29/conservatives-nl-byrne-candidates-129.html) and you have yourself a real race. St. John's East is traditionally a conservative riding.
    09 10 27 binriso
    156.34.213.226
    Probably the only time a shift like this happened was when Jack Harris won a byelection in this riding in 86 or 87 after James McGrath took something like 80% in 1984. Although it probably wont be as big of a margin this time, probably a 55/22/22 split or something like that, still a big win.
    09 10 10 tducey
    76.11.85.66
    The NDP should hold this one easily. Jack Harris is that rare politician that everyone likes.
    09 10 03 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    74.13.73.190
    The vote margin for Harris has little to do with the ABC campaign. If his win was ABC related then we would see the Liberals with a much large vote total than what they got. No, Jack Harris won this (not the NDP) and he'll certainly retain this riding.
    09 09 05 pollwerker
    64.228.222.170
    Harris will be nearly impossible to knock off even as some of the anti-Harper vote drifts back to the Tories. Expect some votes to bleed back to the Liberals as well.
    09 09 05 MF
    70.48.67.120
    I can't think of any other riding in Canada where such a dramatic shift occurred - with the Tory collapsing by 37 points and the NDP shooting up by 57 points! Jack Harris received a whopping 75% of the vote in St. John's East - I don't know if any NDP candidate has ever received such a percentage of the vote. Needless to say Harris enjoys much personal popularity.
    09 09 05 pollwerker
    64.228.222.170
    Harris will be nearly impossible to knock off even as some of the anti-Harper vote drifts back to the Tories. Expect some votes to bleed back to the Liberals as well.
    09 09 05 MF
    70.48.67.120
    I can't think of any other riding in Canada where such a dramatic shift occurred - with the Tory collapsing by 37 points and the NDP shooting up by 57 points! Jack Harris received a whopping 75% of the vote in St. John's East - I don't know if any NDP candidate has ever received such a percentage of the vote. Needless to say Harris enjoys much personal popularity.
    09 08 20 NorthernRaven
    130.209.6.42
    Jack Harris will easily take this riding again. His personal popularity in the city and the provence will prevent him from being knocked off by any challenger, or if the NDP performs poorly.
    The rest of NL will likely stay Liberal.



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