Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Dartmouth-Cole Harbour


Prediction Changed
2011-05-02 02:15:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Chisholm, Robert

Savage, Mike

Shreenan, Paul

Webber, Wanda

Incumbent:
Michael Savage

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • dartmouth (169/188 Polls)
  • sackville-musquodoboit-valley-eastern-shore (26/218 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


  •  


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    11 05 02 MF
    74.15.65.209
    With the NDP on the upswing and a strong candidate in Robert Chisholm, I'm putting this in the NDP column.
    11 05 02 DCH
    24.89.209.216
    This is one of two remaining ridings that are still TCTC (the other being Gilles Duceppe's riding). I think it is going to be extremely close and be one of the smallest margins of victory in the whole country. It will come down to who can get the vote out. Although I am still hoping for a Liberal win here I think the NDP surge that has captured the nation will be enough to over throw Savage. If the NDP can win south shore from the conservatives than I think they can do the same in this riding. Both Savage and Chisholm are great candidates for MP and it will be close. I hope everyone enjoys the election coverage tonight!
    11 05 01 Ron F
    206.163.251.206
    This seat is a working class urban seat. The Liberals may have trouble keeping this because the NDP surge us in Halifax big time.This will go back to the NDP.
    11 05 01 polistudent
    24.89.246.114
    The only sub regional poll of the election campaign in HRM (http://www.metronews.ca/halifax/local/article/845937--liberals-ndp-neck-and-neck-in-hrm-poll) showed that ‘there’s no evidence of a flip’ in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour. This poll showed 36% support for the Liberal in HRM, 33% for the NDP and 27% for the Conservatives. When you factor out Stoffer’s massive majorities in Sackville-Eastern Shore (1 of 4 ridings polled), Liberal support is the other three ridings is stronger than what is showed in the poll and NDP support weaker.
    Atlantic wide polls don’t reflect provincial or even sub provincial voting trends. This is the only poll that anyone should be referencing in relation to Dartmouth-Cole Harbour and it clearly states that there is no evidence of a flip.
    This riding will stay with the Liberals and Savage, the popular incumbent, will win.
    11 04 30 WAC
    204.15.39.90
    Two things to point out about DCH use of the polls. As you correctly point out its important to look at regional polls. What may be deceiving however is that Atlantic Canada polls tend to have huge MOE. You cited April 30th Nanos poll which had the Liberals at 37/the Conservative at 34 and the NDP at 23. The MOE is +/- 10 - which is **huge**. For instance, on April 28th in the Nanos poll the numbers Liberals 33/ Conservative 29/ NDP 29. And with those kind of numbers you would see Chilsholm win this seat. I think yesterday's EKOS poll had the NDP in the lead in Atlantic Canada with 32%. I disgress. Suffice to say I think with the National momentum, a high profile candidate and at polling data (today's Nanos excluded) which indicates the NDP are rising in Atlantic Canada as well. I expect this seat to go back to the NDP.
    11 04 30 KJP
    24.77.200.228
    DCH stated that the NDP needed more than 23% to elect Chisholm. What would the % have to be????? DCH was referring to a Nanos poll, which has consistently been polling lower than all the other polling organizations.He either did not know or deliberately left out the latest polls from the other major pollsters. Leger has NDP in Atlantic Canada at 31%.Ekos at 32%. Forum At 35% and the latest poll from Angus Reid at 46%. for the last four days all other pollsters are getting in the 30's or 40's for the NDP in Atlantic Canada. If these hold for one more day, then the NDP will take this riding along with 3 or 4 more in N.S.
    11 04 30 CC
    96.30.141.250
    Pointing to the lurching Nanos regional numbers is a bit specious; during the same window of time we've seen regional numbers from Leger, EKOS, Ipsos and Harris Decima and every one of them show the NDP either within the margin of victory or in some cases as high at in the low 40s regionally and #1. Nanos looks like the outlier and of these numbers are to be believed prediction models show the NDP growing from 4 to eight seats in Atlantic Canada. After South Shore SM, and perhaps Saint Johns South MP, this riding is the next most likely to flip, especially given the quality of the NDP candidate, the NDP base in Dartmouth provincially and the tanking Liberal numbers in every single part of the country I am finally feeling like this seat is going back to the NDP.
    11 04 30 DCH
    24.89.209.216
    The national polls have been showing a surge for the NDP ahead of the liberals but it is important to look more closely at the regional numbers. When you look at Atlantic Canada the polling actually has the NDP trailing down, the liberals are at 38%, Cons 34%, and NDP 23% (http://www.ctv.ca/mini/election2011/polltracker/index.html). These numbers for the NDP are not enough to unseat Savage, a popular incumbent.
    11 04 29 bluenoser85
    76.11.8.188
    It is important to note the poll in the Metro was done last week, before the NDP's rise in the polls really caught on in Quebec. I wouldn't call this for the Liberals yet. I predict the NDP in a squeaker.
    11 04 29 CGH
    129.173.199.90
    HRM poll shows little change in the four ridings. Mike is a very popular incumbent and I just can't see this one changing.
    A national look at the numbers would say NDP, but logic from the local view just doesn't support that.
    11 04 28 Dartmouthian
    24.89.209.216
    I'll admit that the race between the NDP and Liberals will be close in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour but Savage is a popular incumbent who is running his best election campaign yet, over 1500 signs out across the riding which is the most ever for Savage. He will keep his riding by a hair
    11 04 27 bluenoser885
    76.11.8.188
    At the beginning I would have called this for the Liberals. However, I think the tide has turned. Layton is popular in Nova Scotia and that has never been the case. I think people in this community want change and they see Mike Savage as being passed his prime. I think Layton will carry Chisholm over the hump of the low popularity of the provincial NDP and over the ‘my last name is Savage/I'm a likeable guy, I love Dartmouth’ effect. Nonetheless, this race will be close. My guess 1000 votes split the two.
    11 04 26 MHB
    12.50.150.130
    Given the popularity of the NDP candidate (former leader). Given the surge in NDP support and collapse of the Lib vote. This one should go NDP.
    11 04 24 Sarah P.
    208.103.252.156
    Jack Layton and the NDP's messages are now resonating with voters in this election...even in stubborn, change-resistant Atlantic Canada.
    I know of many Conservatives in DCH who are eager to see Savage gone, and are putting their support behind Chisholm. He's a strong, solid candidate, no question.
    It will, no doubt, be close...but this will absolutely not be an easy win for Savage as some have predicted...especially since Michael Ignatieff is not well liked. And no wonder, with his power play in Quebec over the Shipyards contract, and the fact that all his visits were to Halifax and not Dartmouth...shows where the party's priorities are. They ain't with DCH or Mike Savage.
    And considering Chisholm didn't live in the Halifax Atlantic riding he served (very well, I might add) as an MLA in the '90's, I doubt he ever said that you have to live in a riding to understand it as someone here suggested.
    It's more important that you have the respect of your party,you show up for work, that you listen to the people you're elected to serve, you make yourself accessible, and that you get things done. All these things are among Chisholm and the NDP's greatest strengths.
    11 04 23 Teddy Boragina
    174.118.61.19
    Polls have the NDP within two margins for errors of first in the Atlantic. Even if these polls are a little off, it does speak to NDP strength in the area.
    11 04 24
    71.7.184.218
    All the people who have Liberal signs are not voting Liberal. The empty homes Savage has placed signs on will get him no votes.As for Dexter the downloader not so best friend Robert. How quickly we forget. Is not Robert the guy who said ‘if your not from the riding ,you can't understand the riding’ when Bernie Boudeau ran in Dartmouth South.
    11 04 23 Living in Dartmouth
    24.89.209.216
    This area has been going more and more liberal over the last couple of years. In the 2009 provincial election this riding was the only one in the entire province where the NDP incumbent was defeated in favour of the liberal candidate. Although the NDP have a strong candidate expect the fact that he doesn't live in the riding and lower support for the NDP provincially to increase the gap between the Liberals and NDP in this riding. Savage will win this hands down
    11 04 22 Dartmouthian
    24.89.209.216
    This is going to be a close race. I am volunteering with the Liberal campaign who has put up over 1300 signs and can't keep up with demand. There are a lot of NDP signs up as well (Webber is not even a contender). Chisholm is a stronger candidate than Pye in 2008 so I would expect him to increase the NDP vote. The latest polls are also showing the NDP making gains in Atlantic Canada and the Liberals falling. With all that said, those who have volunteered with the Savage campaign in the past have said this is the busiest they have ever been. I predict a Liberal win but just ahead of a close NDP 2nd.
    11 04 18 Social Democrat
    173.212.64.201
    M. Lunn talks about the unpopularity of the provincial NDP government. Last poll had the NS NDP tied for first place with the NS Liberals. I ask again... if the NDP are so unpopular, what's it say about the Liberals who have about the same provincial support (over 2 years before the next election however...). Do we also hear about how the provincial Tories are last in provincial polls so that means they'll be a drag on federal Tories like Peter MacKay? Never. This unpopular NDP government is pretty wishful thinking by many Liberals and Tories in NS.
    Today's Angus Reid... Tories at 36%, NDP at 25%, and Liberals at 25%. They were the most accurate in 2008. If this holds or the NDP surpasses the Liberals in polling, Dartmouth-Cole Harbour will fall to the NDP no question with a candidate like Robert Chisholm.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    I am now ready to call this for the Liberals. Despite the NDP's upsurge since the debates, Michael Savage is fairly popular and has held this the last three times. Also historically the NDP has always fared poorer federally in provinces where they are in power than when out of office so the unpopularity of the provincial NDP will probably weigh them down too much.
    11 04 15 Mike Bakunin
    69.165.253.142
    I believe this should be too close to call. Savage is well established but Robert Chisholm is a skilled campaigner. While Chisholm has been out of politics, as a former leader of the NDP provincially and an MLA from the area I really doubt people have forgotten him. That being said, Savage is well known. I don't think Savage has been able to project an imagine of an MP who gets things done for his riding, there could be some malaise (this is a bit of a minor point).
    I'll tentatively put my hat in for Chisholm to win by less than 500 votes.
    11 04 14 JRFD
    70.71.171.185
    It's not right that this is in the Liberal column. Robert Chisholm is extremely popular in Nova Scotia and can lift the NDP vote up from the 32% it was stuck at the last few elections. The NDP only needs to pull 4% away from the Liberals to pull even with the NDP and they will do exactly that. Jack Harris, another former provincial leader took the NDP from third place to 74% in the polls in St. John's East last election. Chisholm can certainly take the NDP from 32% to 40%. Don't forget the NDP won all but one of the provincial constituencies in the riding last election.
    11 04 11 Social Democrat
    173.212.64.201
    I have never seen so much excitement for a federal NDP candidate than I have for Robert Chisholm. Money and volunteers are flowing in. There is great respect for Chisholm. And as I've said, Liberals underestimate him at their own peril. Mike Savage certainly doesn't.
    This will be close. But having witnessed Chisholm win his first election when he was a ‘nobody’ against a very well-known and popular councillor, I'm giving the edge to Chisholm. It will be close though.
    11 04 10 Dartmouthian
    24.89.209.216
    Driving around dartmouth lately all you see is signs supporting mike. you can't drive down a street without seeing a sign supporting the liberal party. mike recently commented that he hasn't seen so much enthusiasm, so many volunteers, and so many signs since '93. he will easily be re-elected
    11 04 09 ACH
    142.68.217.157
    It's ‘safe’ because 39% is higher than the NDP has *ever* gotten in Dartmouth. Nobody remembers, or cares, who Robert Chisholm is. Peter Mancini was a stronger candidate (he actually won more votes than Wendy Lill) and Savage beat him. The only thing that made Dartmouth winnable for the NDP was the combination of McDonough as leader with the PCs to take votes from the Liberals. Over the years the NDP's score in Dartmouth has barely moved at all; it's been whether or not the Liberals do well that determined who won. And all three of Savage's wins, even when he faced an incumbent, have been at least 1 600 votes higher than the NDP's high-water mark. Couple this with several straight days of awful polling for the New Democrats in the Atlantic. Savage is safe.
    11 04 07 Social Democrat
    173.212.64.201
    How is this a Liberal stronghold considering Savage got 39% of the vote in 2008? Any sitting MP running for re-election who got under 40% of the vote in the previous election when running for re-election... isn't safe.
    As for not living in the riding, a lot of MP's and MLA's from all parties live outside their riding. Is just minutes outside the riding too far? One street over? Give me a break! A factor to partisans trying to make political points... not voters.
    And those who underestimate Robert Chisholm do so at their own peril. Even if he wasn't the former leader of the NS NDP, he'd still be a formidable candidate. This is someone who came out of nowhere to win John Buchanan's old seat against a popular and well-known Liberal county councillor in his first foray into politics.
    11 04 06
    142.167.166.13
    Dartmouth-Cole Harbour is the core region of the provincial NDPs support and they are hoping this will translate federally. Also interesting to note that all three major parties had their total votes drop by either close to 1000 or more which could give the NDP a chance here if they aggressively get their voters out.
    11 04 05 Perplexed
    142.68.150.14
    I'm perplexed why Dartmouth - Cole Harbour would be considered TCTC.
    Although from an outside perspective I understand why this could be seen as a close riding--the NDP have won it in the past, the NDP have what could be seen as a seasoned challenger--there are a number of reasons why I believe this will not be a close riding at all.
    First, yes, the NDP have held this riding in the past. But when they did, DCH could not have been considered what you would call a safe NDP seat. The NDP had a ceiling of 36% of the popular vote in the riding. At best, they only won the riding by 5% or 2000 votes. Furthermore, they only won the riding twice, and that was (partly) on the coattails of a candidate who was well-known and respected in the community--not because of any ideological or party preference for the New Democrats. Prior to 1997 the riding, or former machinations of it, was held. And, with support for the NDP dropping nationally and regionally in the Maritimes, history does not bode well for the NDP in DCH.
    Second, Robert Chisholm may well be considered a strong contender due to his history in politics but there are a number of reasons why this is not the case. First, he has been out of politics for more than a decade and many do not know who he is. Second, he does not live in the riding. People in DCH value having someone who is truly a local representative--not necessarily someone who is from the riding but someone who lives in the riding and knows the issues of the riding intimately. Robert Chisholm does not live in the riding, he does not know the issues here intimately (as reflected on his website) and this will turn people off of him--it's interesting to see that a number of people who always have an NDP sign on their lawn in DCH do not this time around, and that could be part of the reason why. Third, the NDP have sold their last two candidate as strong candidates with a history in politics (Peter Mancini, a former NDP MP from Cape Breton, and Brad Pie, the son of a well known and well liked NDP MLA in Dartmouth, Jerry Pie) but neither of these gentlemen were able to close the gap between the NDP and Liberals substantially.
    Third, much of the arguments against the NDP presented above can only benefit the Liberal incumbent, especially when the Conservatives are running a relatively weak candidate. While the NDP seem to be faltering nationally, the Liberals seem to be gaining strength--this will only benefit a Liberal incumbent. Mike Savage is known as a hard working MP; he has deep roots in the riding and he is well-respected. DCH, I would venture to say, has never been a riding that has overwhelmingly elected candidates based on party (it elected a locally popular PC candidate in each election during Trudeau's tenure, and a popular Liberal in 1988) but more so based on the person's reputation in the riding--Mike Savage has a more than solid reputation in the riding. Furthermore, he has withstood challenges from the two so-called 'strong contenders' in previous elections at a time when it was hard to run under a Liberal banner.
    Fourth, if you take an objective look at the number of signs around the riding (yes, signs don't vote but they are at least a showing of strength), Mike Savage has more signs up than the other three candidates combined. And, many of the signs are on lawns that haven't taken them in the past.
    Fifth, the sinking NDP brand and rising Liberal brand at the provincial level in Nova Scotia could have some spillover to the federal election--though this would probably be minor.
    SAFE for Savage and the Liberals.
    11 04 03 polistudent
    71.7.234.219
    The federal NDP hit their high water mark in the last federal campaign and will not achieve the same level of support this election in Nova Scotia. This is mainly due to the unpopularity of the provincial NDP government whose popular support has waned since coming to power in 2009. The provincial NDP party has been tied (or close to tied) with the provincial Liberal party in opinion polling for several quarters in Nova Scotia, moving from 45% on Election Day in 2009 to 34% in March of 2011, 1% behind the Liberals.
    The drop in Federal NDP fortunes has been supported by the only recent poll to give a breakdown of popular support in Nova Scotia which showed NDP support down and Conservative and Liberal support up. The poll was Angus Reid (http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/2011.02.26_Politics_CAN.pdf) and the numbers were (with change from 2008 election in brackets) 21% NDP (-8%), 32% Conservative (+6%) and 41% Liberal (+11%).
    With Liberal support on the rise in Nova Scotia and NDP fortunes declining, this seat is safe for the Liberals this election.
    11 04 02 Aaron
    24.89.194.120
    Just an FYI to Election Prediction. Internal polls are showing Dartmouth - Cole Harbour is closer then last time - NDP 3.5 points down and closing.
    11 04 02 J Keller
    142.177.100.229
    Savage win. NDP dreamers can't win with someone without local contact and they probably know it. They will focus on South Shore St-Margarets where Gerald Keddy is extremely vulnerable (Gordon Earle lost by only 900 votes in 2008 and that was *before* 5/5 of the provincial ridings with SSSM went NDP).
    Every second Jack Layton spends here is a second he isn't spending further southwest where he can win. However, it's normal in the first week of the campaign for both the Liberals and NDP to go to ABC ridings and kick their rivals a bit. When it's proven to the stupid or optimistic that there is really no chance of a turnover, their attention will turn to other ridings.
    Remember also that provincial NDP is federal NDP, it's the same membership and power structure (unlike the other parties). So anyone feeling annoyed by the provincial NDP government, and that's always more people after two years of majority government than before, may well be sitting on their hands.
    So no double-dipping here. The only chance for an NDP provincial/federal sweep is South Shore St. Margaret's and that's where the money/time will go. Unless the federal NDP are complete idiots, which is always possible.
    11 04 01 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    Considering Michael Savage's personal popularity, I would definitely give the Liberals an edge, nevertheless the NDP is quite strong here and thus a strong showing by them could be enough to put them over the top.
    11 04 01 JaneyCanuck
    142.167.182.98
    Too close to call!!! But with Robert C in the game and the party's history, I think this riding will go NDP. I like the current MP but many Liberals are not happy or can identify with Iggy and that will cause problems for Mr. Savage who is a good person. Also, the Liberals are not as well organized in NS as they need to be.
    11 03 31 nope586
    24.222.156.195
    There is no way this seat is safe for the Liberals, with the Grit vote down in Atlantic Canada and Robert Chisholm running for the NDP this will be one of the closest races in Nova Scotia.
    11 03 30 Dartmouth Boy
    142.68.13.87
    This will be another win for Savage. I’ve lived in Dartmouth all my life and the people of Dartmouth-Cole Harbour will not vote for someone who doesn’t live in the riding and hasn’t ever lived here. Mike has been a good MP over the years and is well known in our community. Dartmouth needs one of our own to represent us and the fact that the provincial NDP government’s popularity has plumited since being election will not help their federal cousins.
    11 03 30 CGH
    24.89.200.121
    Mike is probably one of the brightest stars coming from Atlantic Canada. He's passionate, articulate and a good, honest individual. He has a connection with the community in Dartmouth that other MP's envy and if anyone could withstand a challenge from Robert Chisholm, it would be him.
    I'm actually surprised they decided to run Chisholm here. I can see at least two better choices for seats in NS
    11 03 30 Mark MacDonald
    173.212.118.8
    This riding should be TCTC with a slight edge to the NDP. While I am not an NDP supporter they have a good person running and have been working very hard. My guess is NDP has it by about 1500 votes.
    11 03 29 Junkie Politico
    173.212.65.205
    I stated before on here that Robert Chisholm running for the NDP makes this riding one to watch, and circumstances could still deliver him a narrow victory, though at the moment I feel comfortable calling this one for incumbent Mike Savage. While driving around Dartmouth last weekend I noticed that Savage was winning the lawn sign and billboard war, and had signs up within hours of the writ being dropped, indicating a well-organized local machine. Indeed, his campaign seems to be the most organized Liberal one in the HRM, as I have yet to see a Geoff Regan sign in my own Halifax West riding. A total Liberal meltdown that sees the party brand so tainted that even popular incumbents are hurt could allow Chisholm to win, but as things now stand I feel comfortable calling this one for the Liberals.
    11 03 28 ASmith
    76.11.73.51
    Mike Savage keeps this riding. Mike is a hard worker and has been a very effective voice for the riding. He goes to everything.
    When the NDP candidate threw his hat into the ring, he admitted that he didn't live in the riding but that he shopped there and went to the Y there. By that reasoning, I should run there too. Kind of lame.
    The Conservative candidate is not a factor.
    11 03 27 Social Democrat
    173.212.64.201
    I'm giving the edge to the NDP. Chisolm has energized the NDP base and membership in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour. I recall when he won his first election against a popular county councillor. Today, he still has the same appeal and has widespread name recognition. Don't underestimate him.
    As for Savage, I get a laugh out of how strong and popular he is in the riding. Well liked? Sure. He's a nice guy. But he couldn't get over 40% in the last election. Any incumbent that gets under 40% isn't a sure thing especially when it's their third election... fourth if count the time he lost to the NDP.
    11 03 27 Tony Ducey
    76.11.85.66
    Easy Liberal hold. Savage should have an increased role in a potentially even-more weaker Liberal party.
    11 03 23 lawstudent
    129.173.235.184
    Savage has this, hands down. Chisholm just isn't that good of a candidate and Savage is hugely popular in the riding. Also, the fact that Halifax may be somewhat competitive means the NDP will have to divert resources that they would otherwise have put here.
    11 03 23 dtown
    68.171.233.242
    Definitely a Liberal safe seat even with a relatively well known NDP challenger and with the NDP to surely pump all the resources they have into the riding. Savage is well-respected as a solid and hard working constituency rep. He's one against strong NDP challengers (former MP Mancini) in previous elections when the Liberals had a weaker leader and their worst electoral result in ages. Chisholm won't be as big of a challenger; Dartmouthians aren't opposed to newcomers or outsiders but they will be opposed to political opportunism and to a candidate who doesn't live in the riding. You can be new to Dartmouth-Cole Harbour and win but you can't live outside it and win.
    11 02 28 polistudent
    71.7.234.219
    With Chisholm not living in the riding, the negative effect of the Provincial NDP on their federal counterparts and the NDP’s poor polling numbers in Atlantic Canada I think this one is another win for Savage. You can add to this that Savage has won the riding three times while the NDP held every seat provincially and this time around he has a sitting Liberal MLA in Dartmouth East to help. Savage is well liked and a progressive Liberal which plays well in Dartmouth. In addition, Savage has consistently bucked national and regional voting trends to maintain his vote share over three elections even when the Liberal Party has been on the decline nationally and regionally.
    11 02 26 Junkie Politico
    173.212.65.205
    In the absence of Robert Chisholm as the NDP candidate, I would call this one for the Liberals. Michael Savage is a largely respected MP from what I hear and is the sort of Liberal who would hold appeal in social democratic Halifax-Dartmouth. The NDP's polling fortunes would reinforce such a call, as they are consistently polling below their 2008 result in Atlantic Canada. Chisholm's candidacy does turn Dartmouth into a riding to watch, as he is also held in rather high regard. A friend of mine in the riding is torn about whether to vote for Savage or Chisholm, and I would imagine a lot of Dartmouth voters will face the same dilemma. If forced to make a call now I'd say the riding stays Liberal, if for no other reason than that the NDP's Atlantic polling vis-a-vis 2008 is worse than the Liberals'. However, with the Liberals now often polling below their 2008 regional result too, this along with the candidates makes Dartmouth impossible to call.
    11 02 20 wilson
    99.192.53.189
    There are no trends favouring the NDP here. Savage is strong...acknowledged by Chisholm. And Savage won last three elections with zero national momentum from his party (especially last time). Chisholm being from Halifax is very hurtful, but it doesn’t matter. The provincial NDP are an anchor to federal candidates.
    And to suggest that Chisholm the lobbyist appeals to middle class voters is a joke. He can’t win, and certainly not against a strong incumbent. Savage is a progressive Liberal who will likely have his easiest run to date.
    11 01 25 Justin
    24.222.177.161
    I was at Chisholm's nomination meeting tonight.
    Putting aside who everyone thinks is the better candidate, who is better liked, etc etc, I can tell you that the NDP is going to be throwing itself into this riding. Taking a quick peek into the donations basket that was being passed around, I can tell you that this riding is going to have momentum.
    And don't forget that, not too long ago, this riding was orange. I have a hard time believing that Savage really resonates with average voters in the area, which is largely lower-income. Chisholm hits the bread and butter issues just right; healthcare, pensions and assisted living. I don't think he'll have much trouble.
    10 01 24 Anon
    142.68.89.198
    Contrary to popular belief, running a parachute candidate with a criminal record isn't going to win Dartmouth for the NDP. The provincial New Democrats have built a strong machine there, but if we're going to assume the provincial scene influences the federal (it typically does not), then having Trevor Zinck plus a premier with a 20% approval rating within the riding is not going to help Chisholm.
    10 09 05 even odds
    99.192.83.11
    There is almost no chance of the NDP winning here. Chisholm was mentioned last year as possible candidate, but has done nothing. Now that the prov NDP are struggling terribly,he likely has reconsidered.
    Savage is very liked here,has been strong MP...
    10 04 06 Lommy
    99.236.31.74
    Former NDP leader Robert Chisholm will be seeking the nomination here. With that, the Savage will be returned to the wilderness.
    10 03 05 Ned
    142.177.212.53
    Safe Liberal. Probably always was...but this is Dexter's home riding as well; he has gone from a modest help to a huge negative for NDP. Dexter has never been overly active federally and now he will most likely lay very low. This will be an easy Grit hold.
    10 02 26 election eye
    142.177.152.154
    This seat is as safe as can be. The plummeting fortunes of Darrell Dexter will hurt NDP'ERS even more. By any account, this seat should probably have gone NDP in each of last 3 elections, now there is no way the Liberals will lose.Savage is very popular.
    10 02 26 maddie
    142.68.223.18
    Everything points to the grits. Savage is strong, hugely regarded and well organized. For the NDP to have a chance, Savage would have to quit. The 'alleged' advantage of having an NDP provincial government has turned into a distinct disadvantage as Dexter's government is knee deep in problems. With the Libs bouncing back a bit under Ignatieff, the margin will likely skyrocket.
    10 01 23 sandy
    142.68.216.83
    This is a seat that the NDP should have won in 2004,2006 and 2008. Now it is solid Liberal as long as Savage is the MP, and Layton is NDP leader.
    When i hear that the NDP are looking at people like Deveaux or Robert Chisholm, it reinforces the fact that although the NDP are strong provincially....they have no local candidates of Savage's calibre. Both of those guys are good, but live outside the riding and have no recent involvement....like Brad Pye last year. If ever the ndp should have swept this riding,it was 2008.
    Savage will likely increase his majority....as a provincial NDP supporter..it is simply the way it is.
    09 12 06 David Y.
    96.30.162.103
    Word is going around that former provincial NDP M.L.A. Kevin Deveaux is eyeing the federal nomination in D.C.H. now that he has returned from his job in Vietnam.
    Given the falling Liberal poll numbers, and the provincial NDP honeymoon that is apparently still going on with the voters, a credible candidate like Deveaux could win this riding back for the NDP.
    09 10 26 R.D.
    74.13.218.2
    The NDP has been polling very strong in Nova Scotia, due to the popular new provincial government. This is the home riding of the premier. While Savage has performed well since taking the riding from the NDP in 2004, his vote share slipped under 40% last time. If the federal NDP continues to enjoy a bounce in support from their association with their provincial cousins, I think this riding is the most likely NDP pick-up after South Shore - St. Margaret's.
    09 09 30 Anon
    129.173.238.84
    The NDP have won this riding twice, ever. Both were during Alexa McDonough's tenure as leader, when the NDP was generally much stronger in the Atlantic. Furthermore, both victories were by tiny margins-smaller than any of Savage's three. The NDP's provincial sweep is irrelevant; the NDP have had far more votes than the Liberals provincially for ten years without it making a bit of difference federally. This is an easy hold for Savage, without a doubt.
    09 09 25 Robotory
    24.138.10.19
    The NDP won with Windy Lill before. With a high profile candidate I think they will give Savage a run for the prize. NDP support provincially is grown it will continue the momentum and unseat Savage.
    09 09 24 TokenModerate
    24.222.136.98
    Mike Savage win by 7500 votes? I don't think this is representative of how things stand in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour at all. Yes, Mr Savage is the incumbent and this means he's got a good chance of being re-elected. However, there are no other nominated candidates yet. Depending on who the NDP and Conservative nominated, I for one am not ready to call this a runaway for Mr Savage.
    09 09 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    204.187.16.113
    Though it seems that Savage will win here for sure, the NDP should not be discounted at all. With Premier Dexter and a strong push from a good candidate this could turn orange again. Don't see it as of now though.
    09 09 16 watchman
    24.235.126.250
    savage wins. Most popular MP in years. Highly visible, well liked and bright. Margin...7500. No-one beats him.
    09 09 14 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    ?Most visible member of the Nova Scotia Liberal caucus?? What's Scott Brison--chopped liver? Even that other premier's son--Geoff Regan--has had more profile in actual and shadow cabinet. Whatever his merits as an MP, Mike Savage actually has the *weakest* electoral history of NS's present federal Grit representation; and given the Premier Dexter factor, unless Jack Layton's campaign wheels sputter I can foresee, at most, another single-digit margin for Savage...
    09 09 14 Brian A
    71.7.141.10
    If I could just comment on what Nick said, it's true that this is an 'NDP Riding' by demographic, but except in the case of a complete collapse of a party's vote, it's unlikely an incumbent will lose unless they have a reason to lose. Mike is probably the most visible member of the Nova Scotia Liberal caucus, and defintiely one of the most visible Atlantic Canada MP's from the Liberal caucus. He's smart, progressive, very well-liked and he's a shoo-in for a Cabinet spot in the next Liberal government.
    Even if a 'star candidate' like Kevin Deveaux ran for the NDP here, it would take a Herculean effort to unseat Mike.
    09 09 13 Haligonian Political Junkie
    76.11.33.18
    A piece of political gossip in the September 13, 2009 issue of The Chronicle-Herald (The Howe Room column to be exact) is worth noting. It stated that former NDP MLA Kevin Deveaux is rumoured to be seeking the NDP nomination in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour. No source for the rumour was mentioned in the article, however, and Deveaux himself did not indiciate that he was actively seeking the nomination when asked about it. However, if he were to run for the NDP here, it would become a real race. Otherwise, Dartmouth-Cole Harbour will remain Liberal.
    09 09 11 Left is Right
    142.177.58.44
    The only way the NDP can win this seat is if Mike Savage quits. He is the same type of politician as the new Premier. He is progressively moderate, well liked and too bright to be making any mistakes. Dion cost him 3000 votes last year. He picks them back up and wins by 6000.
    09 09 11 erin
    192.197.82.155
    This is a 'GROWING NDP area' ? The NDP vote has grown from 13,500 IN 2000, to 13,500 in 2004, to 14,600 in 2006 and to 12,800 in 2008.
    Last years NDP vote in this riding was the lowest vote in the last 5 federal elections. Now for the first time in more than a decade, the Libs won a provincial seat.....Andrew Younger who will no doubt repay Savage for the help he received in the Provincial campaign. The Savage-Younger duo is great news for Liberals in Dartmouth.
    Neither Dion or Layton (or Harper even more)helped their parties in this riding last year, but Dion is gone. This will be strongly Liberal. Savage is popular with just about everyone .
    09 09 10 Nick J Boragina
    198.96.35.219
    The NDP could win here. Not because of provincial strength, remember provincial =/= federal. If it did, we'd have had a string of federal PC governments in the 70's and 90's.
    The reason the NDP could win here is due to past federal strength. This is a growing ?NDP area?. The NDP win provincially will not translate directly, but rather indirectly; motivated volunteers will make that extra push to win federal seats. The NDP can take this on a strong campaign, its truly a toss up at this point.
    09 09 09 Keen Eye
    24.222.12.42
    I agree with Erin, Provincial support does not translate into Federal support. If that were the case the NDP would currently hold the Dartmouth-Cole Harbour riding. However, if you want to take a look at the numbers just for fun... In the Provincial ridings contained within the Dartmouth-Cole Harbour riding, NDP support increased 4.9% in 2009 over 2006 while Provincial Liberal support increased 13.7%. If you want to make any claim about Provincial support helping a Federal Candidate, it?s clear that Mike Savage would be the beneficiary of that support, not the NDP. Savage will hold the riding.
    09 09 03 Brian A
    142.177.77.26
    My own riding. This riding is staying Liberal without a doubt. Nevermind the fact that Mike has a very strong personal popularity; he has taken strong NDP candidates and turned them away. Brad Pye had the full support of the Trevor Zinck/Jerry Pye machine behind him and he lost. Hold for Mike.
    09 09 04 erin
    192.197.82.155
    the NDP STRENGTH PROVINCIALLY does not translate to federal politics . In fact, the provincial election results in this riding showed that the Liberal vote increased by almost 15 PERCENT and they won a seat for the first time since 1999. the ndp vote increased by less than 5.
    If Savage held this seat under Dion,losing less than 2 percent of his margin.....the next federal will be his biggest margin yet. Savage is stronger than ever.
    09 09 01 MF
    70.52.182.217
    It's true that Mike Savage enjoys some personal popularity, and that he was able to win this under Dion. However he didn't win by all that much - around 3,000 votes - and apparently the NDP ran a very weak candidate. Darrell Dexter's coattails should help the NDP - Dexter himself represents one of the provincial ridings here and the NDP won a smashing victory in Dartmouth in the last provincial election. Should be interesting.
    09 08 31 Scotialist
    96.30.128.43
    It all depends on the NDP candidate. Brad Pye ran a weak campaign in 2008- did little canvassing outside of north Dartmouth, signs arriving late and spending part of the campaign in Palestine! Yet he still had a decent showing. If the NDP riding association can get their act together they can take the seat. If not, Savage will remain.
    09 08 25 Keen Eye
    24.222.12.42
    Mike Savage will hold his seat. If under the circumstances of the last election he held off against the NDP, rising Liberal fortunes this time will carry him to victory again. The NDP will place a strong second.
    11 04 28 madcaper
    99.192.31.177
    The latest poll on threehundredeight.com has Mike Savage a mere 0.5% ahead of Challenger Robert Chisholm of the New Democrats. hen you consider that less than a week ago the Liberals were slightly more than 9% ahead of Chisholm this gives credibility to a momentum shift in favor of Chisholm and could be what is needed to provide a win of about 1000 votes. This one will probably go down to the last 10 polls before a winner is evident. One to watch on Election night



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