Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2011

Fredericton


Prediction Changed
2009-11-20 09:41:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Ashfield, Keith

Comeau, Louise Anna-Marie

McKeen, Randy

Ness, Adam Scott

Travis, Jesse

Incumbent:
Hon. Keith Ashfield

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • fredericton (148/148 Polls)
  • fundy-royal (20/195 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


  •  


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    11 04 26 binriso
    142.167.166.13
    Fredericton is the kind of riding where in an alternative vote scenario (ie ranking candidates and eliminating the lowest vote getter each round until someone gets 50% of the vote with 2nd/3rd choices) the Conservatives would almost certainly lose. But the vote will be split up again and enough to ensure a Conservative victory. And none of the candidates appear to be doing any door-to-door at all. Hopefully I am wrong though I havent seen any of the candidates yet.
    11 04 24
    99.252.130.67
    It is very likely that Keith Ashfield will take this riding again. However, Randy McKeen is a famous radio personality, so he has name recognition. Moreover, there has been buzz recently about Keith Ashfield not meeting with his constituents, responding to emails or answering phone calls. Many more people in town are also giving Jesse Travis serious consideration, based on the attention Jack Layton has been getting in the media. Based on a general air of people being fed-up with the prevailing two parties, I see this taking votes away from both the Conservatives and Liberals. While it may seem as though Fredericton will easily go Conservative again, if I was a gambler, I wouldn't place a bet on it.
    11 04 24 John
    142.166.4.1
    It seems to me that the Liberals are gaining momentum, and the fact that the Liberals are the only party that actually has a plan with Point Lepreau. I've seen quite a few lawn signs in the Fredericton area, concentrated on the North side of the city, which means Minto could be full Liberal. Plus Harper brought in some reinforcements to Ashfield, meaning this riding could flip to the Liberals. Didn't help matters when a respected Fredericton video blogger, Charles LeBlanc; a Conservative Party Member got the heave ho from the rally. I'm saying Liberal win here, but in essence, it should be TCTC as this race will be a tight one
    11 04 21 JaneyCanuck
    142.166.143.75
    Keithe Ashfield, a popular former cabinert Minister in the Lord govt and now in the Harper one will absolutely win this riding. Keith is hard working, very highly regarded by people on all sides and this is a traditional Conservative riding. It was held by Andy Scott for awhile for the Liberals but toward the end, that had more to do with Mr. Scott's personal popularity than it did with any Liberal ‘tradition’ here. (On occasion, Liberals are elected provincially tho and I think this reflects a demographic change with the university and a growing Francophone population).
    Keith has been a cabinet Minister who has delivered all over the province and is when it comes down to it just a really kind and very competent Minister. There is no way he will loose this riding!
    11 04 16 M.Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    I am now ready to call this for the Conservatives. This riding was always marginal at best for the Liberals and although they main win Fredericton, half of the riding is rural and last time around the Tories won by a 2:1 margin here. It also includes the military base of Gagetown which the Tories tend to do well at. Finally, with Greg Thompson not running again and it still being questionable whether Bernard Valcourt can win, there is a very good chance that Keith Ashfield will have the most senior cabinet position from New Brunswick which should also help him as well.
    11 04 09 Junkie Politico
    142.167.191.234
    I've been visiting Fredericton for a couple of days and it is amazing how little activity there appears to be going on, with no signs of lawns in view and only a scattering of Conservative billboards and NDP lawn signs at major intersections. Liberal signs only appeared late yesterday. Indeed, the state of the local Liberal campaign here seems horribly disorganized, which is surprising given that this was a Liberal seat only one election ago. I made a mid-day visit to both the Liberal and Tory campaign offices and their respective states reveal the differences in organization between the two local campaigns. The Liberal office was clearly still being set up and was staffed by one person, whereas the Tory office was fully operational and had seven people working in it. Ashfield would have been difficult to defeat even with a well-prepared Liberal campaign, given his incumbent and Cabinet Minister status, not to mention the slight rise in Conservative fortunes in Atlantic Canada since 2008. However, with the Liberals in such apparent organizational disarray, including having only nominated a candidate on April 5, I can't see them coming within 15% of the Conservatives here. Yes, Randy McKeen is more of a household name locally than the other Liberal nomination contenders, but with only three weeks of proper campaigning there is simply no way that the Liberals can hope to overcome the difficult odds they already faced in this riding. Easy Conservative hold.
    11 04 07 binriso
    142.167.166.13
    Interestingly sign-wise there is very little activity, Ive actually only seen a few Keith Ashfield signs and a couple Jesse Travis signs and this is from the Fredericton part of the riding. The Liberals did just nominate which is likely why theres no signs yet and no Green party signs are to be found as well. On private property there is probably a sign on less than 2 percent of households in the area. A bit of a snoozer here, which probably mean a very low turnout. None of the leaders have been even to the province to drum up support other than Harper's quick stop in Dieppe.
    11 04 07 binriso
    142.167.166.13
    With a long-time radio personality as their candidate, the Liberals may win here, or at least they stand a better chance than any of the other people that ran for the candidacy. I still think the CPC will win here but the Liberals have an outside chance now. The Greens probably wont be nearly as strong this time, while the NDP may lose some votes as well as their candidate does not seem to be very active in most of the riding, even though he has ran in the area before on a couple of occasions federally and provincially. Might be a bit too late for the Liberals to come back here, and even though they did nominate a candidate a few months ago, she resigned and the snap election may be enough for the CPC to hold the seat as it is only 3.5 weeks till the vote.
    11 04 06 John
    142.167.94.167
    Randy McKeen is quite an individual, and his ‘Bottom Line’ segments really lit the fire on the former provincial Liberals during the whole NB Power deal. He tells it like it is, and if he concentrates his efforts in Oromocto, Minto and New Maryland, while holding on to the votes the Liberals got in Fredericton proper, he will win.
    11 04 05 Phoenix
    99.251.248.81
    Well, it looks like my last submission is moot, since Robbins was defeated in the Liberal nomination battle by local radio broadcaster Randy McKeen. McKeen is probably a better choice for the Liberals than Robbins would have been, given that he carries broader name recognition, has a more effective persona, and is more of a centrist than Robbins. He'll still be playing a game of catch-up, though, as we're a week and a half into the campaign and the Conservatives have been hitting the pavement hard from the day the writ was dropped. Ashfield won't be easy to beat, though having McKeen as their candidate probably puts the Liberals an inch or two closer than Robbins would have.
    11 04 02 J Keller
    142.177.100.229
    Note ‘the impressive performance by the Greens (who had their second-best result east of Ontario here).’ This will be even more ‘impressive’ given the Japanese nuclear disaster which will push Liberal votes to the Greens as a protest against ‘Pointless Lepreau’ (do some web searches on that term!).
    These 'useful idiots' who vote Green instead of vote-swapping to elect May will guarantee a Conservative win here. No chance of unifying the left here.
    11 04 01 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    Of the three ridings the Tories picked up in New Brunswick, this is probably the one they are least likely to lose. With the military base of Gagetown and their strong support in the rural areas while more even support in Fredericton, it is really their's to lose. Still I am reluctant to call it at the moment, but if the Liberals don't start closing the gap soon, they will have little or no chance at picking this up.
    11 03 31 JB
    142.166.86.10
    Nomination for the Liberal candidate is April 4- Wendy Robbins, Matt Hopkins, and Randy Mckeen have declared so far for the Liberal nod. They will be hard pressed to defeat Ashfield, a cabinet minister, whoever the Liberal choice may be.
    11 03 28 Tony Ducey
    76.11.85.66
    This seat stays Conservative. With Bernard Lord not running and Greg Thompson out of the picture, I think Keith Ashfield will get a higher spot in cabinet.
    11 03 21 Phoenix
    99.251.248.81
    Without a large nationwide trend toward the Liberals, this seat is probably staying with the Conservatives. With neighbouring Greg Thompson out of the picture, Ashfield is now NB's most prolific cabinet minister, and he goes to great lengths to make sure that his constituents are well-aware of that fact. Now, add to the mix that the previously-nominated Liberal candidate, Pam Campbell, has now withdrawn. Her replacement is likely to be the person whom she defeated for the nomination, university professor Wendy Robbins. Though Robbins is intelligent and articulate (and, to put it politely, the same might not be said as emphatically about Ashfield), she's markedly more left-leaning than your average New Brunswick Liberal, so it's clear that the Liberal strategy here will be to nab enough of the 10,000 voters who opted for the Greens or NDP in the last election to make up the 4,000 vote deficit they had against Ashfield, rather than trying to peel off enough soft Ashfield support to put them over the top. Whether that's a winning strategy remains to be seen - my inclination is that, no, it is not. Fredericton has historically been a fairly strong riding for right-of-centre parties - even during the Chretien era, despite the Liberals eking out wins as a result of the vote split - and without a strong push from a strong candidate in a favourable national climate, the Liberals aren't likely to take it back, least of all against someone with Ashfield's federal clout.
    11 02 26 Junkie Politico
    173.212.65.205
    At one time I said this riding could become marginal, with the Conservatives as favourites to win but not necessarily certain to win. I would now say that the Conservatives should hold Fredericton quite comfortably. The recent upward fortunes for the Tories in Atlantic Canada are what really confirms it for me (they have been polling in the mid-to-high 30s range in the region). This trend coupled with Ashfield's incumbency and cabinet minister status should keep this riding blue.
    10 03 09 binriso
    156.34.210.156
    Although Saint John and Miramichi are races to watch, Fredericton seems like it will be solidly in the CPC camp. Tough to see any Liberal winning here since the Greens and NDP are fairly strong in the city itself. Probably wont be that close but the CPC are likely not going to be much higher than 42-43%.
    10 01 31 Frederictonian (formerly Haligonian) Political Jun
    142.167.189.185
    I stated earlier that minus some notable shift in regional and national polling numbers, Fredericton should remain Conservative. It would appear that the recent declining fortunes of the Tories and the slow yet steady increase in Liberal numbers would now push Fredericton back into the ‘Too Close To Call’ camp. The outcome in this riding will depend upon whether Liberals who stayed home in 2008 will come out to vote this time, and where the Green vote goes. The NDP vote will likely hold around its current level, though a push for strategic voting could endanger it. The Green vote, however, will most certainly decline given that Mary Lou Babineau will not be the local candidate this time and that the party in the Maritimes in general is in a somewhat depressed state. Pam Campbell, the Liberal candidate, may also be more appealing to progressive-minded voters in the riding than the previous Liberal candidate, and thus pick off enough NDP votes to defeat Keith Ashfield by a slim margin. If forced to make a call now, I'd say the riding stays Conservative, though by a reduced margin. However, a lot could change during a campaign and a Conservative win is no longer guaranteed.
    10 01 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    174.89.196.23
    It seems to us that the wise-guys of election-predicting that run the site are caving in to partisan pressue to keep this (and other ridings such as Moncton) listed a win for one party or another. We think this one should be listed as TCTC (with a leaning towards the conservatives). Between '06 and '08, the Liberals lost over 6300 votes and the Conservatives gained about 1650; obviously the Liberals do have a pool in which they could build off of. Still they have a lot of catching up to do and we suspect that much of this added support was support for Andy Scott and not so much for the Liberals. This is a fairly conservative region and we think the CPC will likely keep it. Bottom line though is that with the faultering numbers in the polls they can not rely on anything and many ridings currently listed for them ont his site are very much in-play.
    Most of the current loss in Tory support has been in Ontario and the Atlantic provinces. Added evidence that some of their current holds are vulnerable out east.
    09 11 18 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Current mp Keith Ashfield maintains the advantage here over the liberals and new candidate Pam Campbell . first off it should be noted that although Andy Scott held fredericton from 93 till 06 it historically was not a liberal riding and was in fact a riding with a long progressive conservative history. and he was the only liberal to ever hold this riding in something like the last 40 or so years if not even longer. and the fact that David Innes didn't even bother to try for the nomination again is a clear sign he didn't feel the riding was winnable for the liberals at this time. Keith Ashfield is also minister of state for the atlantic canada oppurtunites agency , a position which is sure to be popular on the east coast. where mp's in government can at times have a significant advantage when there able to deliver funds to there home province and ridings. the only wildcard or thing i'm unsure about in this riding is the incredibly high green vote in 08 and if they could maintain such a level of support in future elections .
    09 10 03 Haligonian Political Junkie
    76.11.34.140
    My previous post stated that the Conservatives had a slight edge here yet the Liberals stood a chance should they select the right candidate. I now think, however, that incumbent Keith Ashfield will hold onto Fredericton regardless. Only the scale of the margin is uncertain. The Liberals just selected Pam Campbell as their candidate, who would appear to have a decent public profile as a former high school principal, a former New Brunswick Teachers' Association President and a former political volunteer. With her selection, the Liberals seem to be opting for a more centrist strategy, as nomination challenger Wendy Robbins, a retired UNB English literature professor, seemed like someone who would have more of a centre-left appeal that would win over New Democrats and Greens at the expense of winning over defecting Tories. According to The Daily Gleaner, Campbell attacked the Tories at the nomination meeting on post-secondary education, child care and the environment, so it sounds like the Liberals will sprinkle their local campaign with all the appropriate progressive messages. However, I don't think Campbell's candidacy will be enough to defeat Ashfield. First, while most of the 10% Green vote from 2008 is likely up for grabs, I cannot say the same for the NDP vote. They still won 15% with a last minute candidate in 2008, so their vote probably will hold around that level. 15% seems to be the new base for the local NDP. Moreover, larger regional trends suggest that most Atlantic Canadian Conservative incumbents will be safe. Polls are lately putting the Conservatives at or slightly above their 2008 regional levels, while the Liberals are stagnant. Moreover, Fredericton tends to mirror party support trends in Ontario more than Atlantic Canada, and the Tories are performing better in Ontario polls lately. Ashfield's cabinet minister status can't hurt him either, and he does not come across as a scary neo-con but rather as your standard Maritime Red Tory, so he is not exactly the type of person to provoke a united front among local leftists. The Liberals may narrow the gap, but in the absence of some major national or regional shifts in both Liberal and Conservative fortunes, I think Fredericton will remain Conservative.
    09 09 20 Steve Smith
    156.34.239.158
    Ashfield won handily last time (granted, during the worst Liberal performance in memory) and is now a cabinet minister. While there are plenty of people in this riding chomping at the bit to replace Harper, these are people who didn't vote Conservative last time either.
    09 09 13 Phoenix
    99.251.230.35
    Fredericton is the center of art, academia, and activism in New Brunswick, which may be why many were surprised at the margin of the Conservative victory here in the last election - and if the riding consisted only of downtown Fredericton and College Hill, I might share in their bewilderment. In reality, Fredericton is a city of white-collar professionals and suburbanites; over 60% of Fredericton's population lives in the city's Northside suburbia - an area that, provincially, actually elected a member from anti-biligual COR party back in the 1990's. And let's not forget that this riding also includes CFB Gagetown and a large part of rural Sunbury county.
    While the Liberals may be courting a candidate who can woo the more left-leaning demographic of the city, I'm not so sure that's a great idea. Andy Scott, a relative moderate, was the only Liberal to win this riding since the 1950s (and he often did it thanks to some incredible vote-splitting on the right). If the Liberals veer too far to the left with their candidate, many of those moderate Andy Scott/David Innes supporters may bleed to Ashfield. Additionally, the NDP was in utter disarray here in the last election (they didn't even have a candidate until the campaign was well-underway), but they still managed to pull over 6,000 votes, so I'm not sure how deep the reservoir of soft NDP support is; a reservoir from which the Liberals would need to draw if they nominated a more left-leaning candidate. The Green vote is a bit of a wild card, and may be what the Liberals are counting on; but even if every last person who voted Green here in 2008 voted Liberal in this election, the Liberals would still fall short.
    All things considered, I think that Ashfield will be re-elected. New Brunswick is more fertile turf for Conservatives than other parts of Atlantic Canada, and Fredericton, despite the university-town stereotypes, is no exception. Ashfield is relatively visible, and has had a drama-free tenure as cabinet minister thus far; unless popular opinion starts moving strongly against the Conservatives, this will be a CPC hold.
    09 08 23 Haligonian Political Junkie
    142.167.174.107
    Fredericton posted some surprises in 2008, namely the margin by which the Conservatives won (I predicted a slim Liberal victory actually) and the impressive performance by the Greens (who had their second-best result east of Ontario here). Incumbent Keith Ashfield is a Cabinet Minister, which should give him assistance in holding his vote, yet his ability to hold on will also be decided by what shifts happen within the NDP/Green vote in Fredericton, which accounted for about 26% of all votes cast. The NDP in Fredericton probably have a worst-case scenario base of 10%, and their vote did sag to 15% in 2008 with the departure of John Carty as the NDP candidate and the emergence of Mary Lou Babineau as the Green candidate. Indeed, Babineau herself was likely a big reason for the gains made by the Greens here in 2008. She is not running again, and it is difficult to see the Greens holding on to their vote from 2008. How much it will decline, and where it will go, makes Fredericton tough to call. Moreover, what will happen to the NDP vote? Will it shift strategically to the Liberals, hold at 15%, or even go up due to fleeing Greens? Only one person appears to have declared an intention to run for the Liberal nomination here, this being Wendy Robbins, an English Literature professor at UNB. A scan of online news stories on this item suggests that Robbins would be a left-leaning Liberal, someone who would certainly be appealing to Green and NDP voters in the riding, much as Andy Scott was and apparently 2008 Liberal candidate David Innes wasn't. According to the CBC and The Daily Gleaner, her political CV includes involvement in Equal Voice and activism related to pay equity, anti-racism and family violence research, all ingredients that would play well in the academic-leftist circles that the local Greens and NDP rely on for core support. Were Robbins to become the Liberal candidate, she could present a challenge to Ashfield by potentially bringing 2008's Green and NDP voters on board. Too close to call now, though I would give the Conservatives a slight edge for now while waiting to see what the other three parties do.



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