Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011

Brossard-La Prairie

La prévision a changé
2011-05-01 22:37:00

Profil de circonscription


Brossard, Maurice

Chouinard, Normand

Lussier, Marcel

Mai, Hoang

Mendès, Alexandra

Murphy, Kevin

Alexandra Mendès

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • brossard-la-prairie (186/188 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 05 01 Stéphane Gaudet
    Eh bien, on s'attendait à une lutte entre le Bloc et les libéraux, mais c'est Hoang Mai qui gagnera, à sa deuxième tentative. On sait que plusieurs électeurs francophones habituellement bloquistes voteront NPD cette année (La Prairie est plutôt francophone), mais on sait aussi que beaucoup d'allophones délaissent le Parti libéral qu'historiquement ils avaient toujours appuyé. Le PLC est très faible au Québec, et il finira troisième au Canada, pourquoi voter pour avoir une députée de ce parti ? Mes chiffres me donnent plutôt une victoire NPD dans ce comté, aussi surprenante soit-elle.
    11 04 29 Paul Tremblay
    As the Bloc is doing much worse than expected, the Liberals now have a good chance of keeping this riding thanks to the (in)famous Liberal ‘ballot box bonus’.
    One note here to prevent any misunderstanding, I'm not suggesting organized vote fraud from anyone (although I'm cynical enough to believe that some non-naturalized immigrants do vote, and that this helps the Liberals). The ‘ballot box bonus’ refers to the fact that Liberals tend to do better at the ballot box compared to what opinion polls suggest, Liberals in Quebec being more likely to lie about their voting intentions for whatever reasons.
    I suppose that the NDP could win thanks to vote-splitting if they do obtain the support predicted by province-wide opinion polls, however as I mentioned elsewhere I expect them to fall way short of expectations and in any case I believe there are too many allophones in the riding to allow an NDP win -- allophones being more likely to stick with the Liberals.
    11 04 28 expat
    The south shore has been one of the more NDP friendly areas of Quebec for a few years. With an already divided vote between the other parties here (the winner in 2008 got only 32%) and the NDP drawing votes from both the Bloc and the Liberals (as well as a few from the Conservatives evidently), the math is very favourable for them here. Add in a very good local candidate, and this will very likely be one of the many NDP pick-ups in Quebec on election night.
    11 04 25 DL
    With the NDP surging into the lead in Quebec - the seats have to come from somewhere and what better place than here - good four way split - the NDP candidate Mai Hoang is a star international lawyer. This is low hanging NDP fruit!
    11 04 21 Teddy Boragina
    I'm only posting here to cover my butt in case the NDP really does get 30% across Quebec on election day - If they do they'll win this seat. For now, however, the Liberals have it on Bloc weakness.
    11 04 09 joey joe joe
    Mendes will hold it for the Liberals. Iggy pledge of a new bridge to Montreal to replace the crumbling Federally owned Champlain should help. Liberals are slightly up in Leger and Nano polls vs. 2008.
    11 04 04 Marco Ricci
    Liberals are moving up in newest Quebec polls (eg. Leger), so Alexandra Mendes may have a shot at keeping this.
    11 04 02 M.Lunn
    In the past three elections, this has been a very close riding swinging back and forth between the two. You have the ethnically diverse Brossard which goes Liberal while the more heavily Francophone La Prairie which goes Bloc so there aren't a whole lot of swing votes in this riding, thus it comes down to who can bring their supporters out. At this point, it is too close to call.
    11 03 30 Paul Tremblay
    The Liberal incumbent won this seat against the Bloc in 2008 thanks to a judicial recount. Things have changed here since my previous posting from 2009 as the Liberal party is clearly in the toilet in Quebec now, while the Bloc maintains their popularity. Enough said.
    11 03 31 Marco Ricci
    The BQ do have a candidate here - it's the same MP who held the seat until he lost it in 2008. Marcel Lussier. He just isn't listed on this site yet for some reason. Obviously the BQ has a good chance of winning this seat back if the Liberals don't get good numbers in Quebec.
    11 03 30 Tony Ducey
    Would have given this riding to the Bloc as it was close last time but with their not having a candidate listed and the fact Mendes has been a vocal member of the Liberals leads me to think she gets the win here.
    09 12 11 R.O.
    Actually i don't think this riding is solid for the liberals yet as its been pretty close the last couple of recent elections. as its been a really tight bloc/ liberal race and the conservatives and ndp have started to do better recently as well . both previous conservative candidate Maurice Brossard and ndp candidate Hoang Mai plan to run here again. and one time bloc mp Marcel Lussier who barely lost last time only after the recount is likely to run again as well. so i wouldn't say Alexandre Mendes is safe here yet as liberals haven't gained much ground in quebec polls overall so its likely too close to call.
    En fait je ne pense pas que ce prendre est solide pour les liberaux pourtant comme son a ete la jolie fin le dernier couple d'elections recentes. comme son a ete un vraiment bloc de tigh/la course liberale et les conservateurs et ndp ont commence a reussir mieux recemment aussi. les deux candidat Maurice Brossard et le projet de Mai de Hoang de candidat de ndp conservateurs precedents de courir ici encore. et un temps un bloc un mp Marcel Lussier qui Le dernier temps a peine perdu seulement apres que le nouveau decompte va en toute probabilite courir encore aussi. si je ne dirais pas qu'Alexandre Mendes est sur ici pourtant comme les liberaux n'ont pas gagne le beaucoup de sol interroge a Quebec en general si son probablement trop proche pour appeler.
    09 11 21 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    The most federalist of the south shore ridings, this one was recaptured by the Liberals and will stay that way. Why are we so certain? Well the Liberals are not in any position to really honk off Quebec voters, that's the domain of the government. Voters won't go BQ out of protest, they did that in '06 and already have forgiven the Liberals to allow them to win it in '08. Now for Tory's targeting this riding...why would they? They know they can't win it now and why would they waste resources on this one when there are winnable ridings that they should focus on. Knocking off this liberal would not advance them to a majority but rather help the BQ. If the Liberals were a real threat and could form government then they would target Brossard but we all know that's not going to happen. Keeping this TCTC is not unreasonable but we just don't see it being lost by the Liberals.
    09 09 22 Paul Tremblay
    I don't expect the Liberal Party to pick up many seats in Quebec but I can't see them losing any seat that they already have.
    The Liberals would have to lose ground in Quebec for them to lose this seat and this won't happen. They won't gain nearly as many votes as some people seem to believe (or hope) but they won't lose votes and as such they are guaranteed to win this riding.
    09 09 04 JF Breton
    Circonscription qui a toujours été favorable aux Libéraux. Jacques Saada y a régné un bon bout de temps. Le creux des commandites a permis au Bloc d'enveler la circonscription, mais le résultat de 2008 me semble être un lent retour de balancier. Mendes a remporté la circonscription au recomptage, sous la chefferie de Dion. Avec Ignatieff, le portrait change pour le mieux: remontée dans les sondages, objectifs de maintien des 14 circonscriptions actuelles au Québec et objectif d'en remporter de 8 à 12 supplémentaires. Mendes devrait l'emporter dans une lutte serrée, mais beaucoup plus confortable qu'en 2008.
    09 08 27 Observer
    Alexandra Mendes lost the election day result but won in the recount. Too close to call.

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