Projet D'Élection Prévision
www.electionprediction.com

élection générale (Canada) - 2011

Drummond


La prévision a changé
2011-05-02 02:18:00
 


 
Profil de circonscription

candidats:

Bernier, Normand W.

Choquette, François

Côté, Pierre

Fortin, Robin

Pomerleau, Roger

Député:
Roger Pomerleau

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • drummond (176/178 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


  •  


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 05 01 Stéphane Gaudet
    66.130.172.171
    Victoire assurée du NPD. Le Bloc n'a recueilli qu'un maigre 38% du vote en 2008 et le NPD un relativement fort 16%. Un swing de 11% suffirait à faire basculer le comté dans le camp orange. Or, toutes les enquêtes, y compris le dernier Léger avec un échantillon de 1 000 répondants au Québec, parlent d'un swing d'autour de 20%, quand ce n'est pas davantage. Comme Trois-Rivières qui n'est pas très loin, Drummond sera emporté demain par la vague orange. Victoire néo-démocrate.
    11 05 01 TCR
    74.56.253.233
    IMO, any riding where the NDP finished second last time, and near or above the provincial average, will surely go NDP this time. I'm surprised this site this shows the bloc as finishing with the most seats in Quebec, and the NDP finishing with the smallest number of seats. This is wrong on the level of epic proportions and some serious seat prediction changes need to be made to reflect the present reality in Quebec.
    Advice:
    Take the bloc vote, cut it in half, and add that to the NDP. If the NDP comes out ahead, it's an NDP pick-up.
    If it's a riding where the bloc had basically no competition, then it's also an NDP pick-up. These people were people voting bloc as a default option - look at the polls, the majority of these people have switched from the bloc to the NDP.
    I have a lot of respect for this site, but wow, the Quebec page needs some serious changes. Right now, I think at least half of the seat predictions for Quebec are currently wrong.
    11 04 30 MF
    74.15.65.209
    The NDP was able to get 17% in Drummond in 2008 with a campaign on a shoestring budget and 12% province-wide. It will almost certainly go NDP.
    11 04 28 Tory in Dixie
    97.81.164.202
    Last election the NDP vote here was only slightly behind the province-wide percentage, at 35 - 45 % this seat is in play for the N.P.D.
    11 04 27 JFBreton
    207.134.225.57
    Même si certaines projections laissent croire à une possible victoire du NPD dans Drummond, je penche plutôt vers la réélection du candidat bloquiste. Même le NPD ne cible pas actuellement ce comté. Je serais curieux de mettre la main sur une répartition régionale des appuis au NPD. Je ne crois pas qu'ils menacent sérieusement dans le Centre-du-Québec.
    11 04 26 John McDonnell
    96.232.17.11
    This seat should not be marked safe for the Bloc. With new polling suggesting that the NDP has soared into 30 percent territory, my bet is the Bloc will get a run for their money here.
    Threehundredeight has the NDP neck and neck with the Bloc here. I'm inclined to agree with that assessment.
    11 04 26 Clarence
    174.118.230.117
    Dear apes, bears, and others from the circus:
    This one is in NDP range and they're going to win it.
    Jackomania is no longer a hypothesis which means it's time to start sorting QUebec ridings into the NDP category. Jack's up. The polling is consistent. More importantly the media are reporting on an NDP surge. The media attention makes the party seem very credible, which does attract votes. Plus, the advance polls were mobbed in some places, which would also suggest that something is pulling people to the ballot box. What else is there in this campaign that could be pulling them but Orange Crush?
    11 04 23 Teddy Boragina
    174.118.61.19
    The NDP has the math to win here... BUT... This riding sticks out like a sore thumb on a map. I suspect the 2008 candidate ran a very strong campaign. This does not mean that 2011 will be the same, so despite the math, I'm going to place this one TCTC for me.
    11 04 21 Teddy Boragina
    174.118.61.19
    Philly D is right. On 30% provincewide, this would become a ‘fairly solid’ NDP riding. For now, however, that is just a single poll, and the Bloc is safe... unless of course this single poll becomes a polling trend.
    11 04 21 JC
    24.150.190.94
    It looks like there is a sufficient swing for the NDP to take this riding.
    11 04 18 Philly D.
    174.142.32.173
    This one will be much closer than most expect. Assuming the rise in the NDP vote is fairly even, this would be one of their first pickups. They need a NDP-BQ swing of exactly 11% percent -- the NDP is up by this amount. The Bloc's numbers are down less though, meaning that they would still win by 1-2000 votes at current numbers. But if Layton makes a last-minute visit, or the NDP rises any further in Québec, this one would become very dicey indeed.
    Cette circonscription devrait être remarquablement proche le 2 mai. Si l'augmentation du vote NPD est uniforme à travers la province, ce comté serait une de leurs premiers gains. Ils ont besoin d'un transfert NPD-Bloc de 11%, ce qui correspond approximativement à leur augmentation actuelle. Le Bloc est aussi en baisse, mais seulement de quelques points, ce qui leur vaudrait maintenant une victoire de l'ordre de 1 000 à 2 000 votes. Mais s'il y a visite de Layton à la dernière minute, ou si l'augmentation du vote NPD progressait même un peu plus, Drummond pourrait causer une (grosse) surprise.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    With the incumbency advantage and the fact the Bloc has won this every election since 1993, I don't see why they would lose it now.
    09 09 02 JF Breton
    24.203.249.32
    Circonscription bloquiste depuis longtemps, mais où les conservateurs ont obtenu un assez bon résultat en 2008. Malheureusement pour les partis fédéralistes, les libéraux et les néo-démocrates ont également obtenu un résultat acceptable lors de cette élection. Conséquence: division du vote. Ça ne devrait pas être très différent cette fois-ci. Victoire bloquiste.



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