Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2011-05-01 22:15:00

Profil de circonscription


Boutin-Sweet, Marjolaine

Breton Fontaine, Marianne

Castonguay, Audrey

Dandenault, Christine

Delgado Dihigo, Yaneisy

Paillé, Daniel

Samson Veillette, Hugo

Thibodeau, Gilbert

Daniel Paillé

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • hochelaga-maisonneuve (189/214 Polls)
  • laurier-sainte-marie (26/210 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 05 01 Stéphane Gaudet
    Comme Rosemont-Petite Patrie, une victoire néo-démocrate ici. Le NPD est premier à Montréal selon Forum Research avec 49%, loin devant les libéraux (18%), le Bloc (16%) et les conservateurs (11%). La lassitude à l'égard du Bloc et sa stratégie défensive (défendre les intérêts du Québec) contrastent mal avec la rafraîchissante campagne positive de Jack Layton. Sur l'île de Montréal, des francophones, des anglophones et des allophones s'apprêtent à délaisser le clivage fédéraliste/souverainiste, PLC/BQ qui divise Montréal d'est en ouest en votant pour le même parti, pour une fois, le NPD. Dans Hochelaga, les gens sont désormais plus progressistes plus que souverainistes, le débat constitutionnel insolvable et l'infaisabilité de la souveraineté propulsent le clivage gauche/droite avant la question nationale.
    11 04 30 MF
    Expat: I very much appreciate your analyses of the ridings in Quebec, given the very dramatic political shift that has been occurring.
    I'm going to call this one NDP. The former president of the Bloc riding association in Hochelaga has argued that the sovereignty battle should occur in Quebec not in Ottawa and that the NDP surge represents an historic opportunity to bring social democracy to Ottawa. I think a lot of voters in Hochelaga would agree with this sentiment.
    11 04 30 John McDonnell
    This would be just about the last seat on the island of Montreal to fall to the NDP. There are a lot of seats marked as BQ wins that would be more likely to fall: Drummond, I'm looking at you.
    This seat should be marked BQ unless EPP predicts at least 30 seats for the NDP, and probably more like 40-something.
    11 04 29 Paul Tremblay
    The race will be extremely close, much closer than anyone would have thought, but I expect the Bloc to keep this seat as support for separatism is just too high in Hochelaga to allow any federalist to win.
    11 04 29 expat
    Any doubt about the NDP's ability to take this riding from the Bloc should be erased with the latest round of polling out of Quebec - the NDP surge is sustained, deep and very very real.
    Adding to the narrative is the news that two former Bloc operatives close to Hochelaga's former MP Real Menard (who left in 2009 in order to be elected Mayor of the local borough) publicly called for Bloc supporters to switch to the NDP to further social democratic goals. If people around Menard, an incredibly well-liked leader in the riding, are switching, that sends a message to a great many activists and voters that it is okay to do. One of the authors of that letter told the press that ‘80%’ of his circle of friends are switching from the Bloc to the NDP. Perhaps more than anything else, that describes the phenomenon taking place in numerous Montreal area Bloc ridings.
    Don't forget that the current MP - Daniel Paille - was a corporate establishment figure forced onto the local Bloc riding association over a progressive party activist by Duceppe and the party leadership. Paille is a bad match for a working class left wing riding like Hochelaga. That lingering resentment probably impacts the willingness of party militants to work hard for Paille during a very tough election - that is if they haven't already switched to the NDP.
    11 04 29 Clarence
    Divide the Bloc vote in half. Give half to the NDP. This is practically what we can do with Quebec ridings now. The NDP wins this one.
    11 04 28 Tory in Dixie
    D'accord avec M. Ours (Dr. Bear) ... si il existe une circonscription dans Montreal qui pourrait changer a l'npd, ce serait Hochelaga.
    11 04 26 Stéphane Gaudet
    Si Gilles Duceppe fait campagne dans Hochelaga aujourd'hui (mardi 26 avril), c'est que ça va très mal pour le Bloc et que celui-ci en est rendu à sauver les meubles. Incroyable mais vrai.
    11 04 25 dr Bear without Prof Ape
    I think this is one of two BQ ridings on the Island of Montreal that will possibly go NDP. This is a very working class riding and the BQ candidate is not really a good fit here (other than he is a seperatist). If Jackomania is something tangible the NDP will put in a great fight and might take it.
    11 04 21 expat
    Former NDP candidate Jean-Claude Rocheleau must be kicking himself for deciding that this was the year he would make an opportunistic switch to the Bloc. He ended up not being able to even win the nomination for an open seat further east - and missing the opportunity to ride the huge wave of NDP support that appears to be building across Quebec. If he had stuck around and run here again, he would probably be looking at a 50/50 shot of getting elected.
    It remains to be seen if the current NDP candidate Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet - a first time candidate and union leader - has the political skills to take advantage of the major surge of NDP support. If she does, this could be an upset. At the moment, I think the Bloc has to be favoured to hold the seat, but given the amazing polls in Quebec and the sense of movement on the ground, this could end up being a NDP pick-up if the Bloc can't stop the bleeding of their past support.
    11 04 20 Neal
    Bloc will hold this riding, but watch for NDP gains in this one. It is one of 5 I think the NDP has real potential with long term in Montreal.
    This election may well signal the beginning of the end for the Bloc, and with a strong all out campaign, it sets the stage for the next election for the Dippers. The other ridings they need to target are, in addition to Outremont: Rosemont Petitte Patrie, Laurier Ste Marie and Pointe de l'ile.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    East end Montreal riding which means very left wing and solidly separatist thus easy Bloc win.
    11 03 28 Tony Ducey
    For a rookie MP Paille really gained a high profile, think he wins the riding again.
    09 11 14 A.S.
    Nice try; but in reality, for the NPD to succeed in a blue-dog Bloc stronghold like Hochelaga is a little like the NDP succeeding in a blue-dog Liberal stronghold like York West. The reasoning (and the incentive to try harder) is not unjustified on ?nominal second place finish? grounds; but the odds are long. At least they put their foot in the door for said nominal second place finish, though; all that's left is for the Bloc here, as well as the Grits in York West, to choke on their 90s-heyday fumes. Because that's still overambitious wishful think, the Bloc prediction holds.
    09 11 10 Gone Fishing
    Hochelaga is another election or two away from becoming light blue or orange but that day will come. I'd be brushing up on floor crossing techniques of the rich and famous if I were the Bloc candidate though, if support finally wanes for this rump party elsewhere in Quebec it will only be a matter of time till someone gets the right candidate in there on the right issues on the right night.
    09 11 10 Nick J Boragina
    *Yawn*. The only news to come out of the by election is that the NDP's result confirms the party is still doing well in Quebec. If you apply it to the province it gives them enough votes to still be a challenger in places like Outremont and Gatineau. This riding, however, will continue to go Bloc for the time being.
    09 11 10 binriso
    Well, poop. Even though the turnout was something like 22% the BQ managed a big victory with the NDP a solid but distant 2nd and the Liberals and Conservatives even further behind. So this seat is gonna be another boring slam dunk in the election it seems.

    By-election Prediction
    November 9, 2009

    09 11 08 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Highly doubt that this will get posted before the byelection results are announced but we wanted to get our two cents worth. Hard core seperatist area of Montreal and is not going to vote against the BQ. This is despite the fact that the BQ candidate is right-leaning in this very working-class neighbourhood. The NDP will come second as this would be a natural NDP riding if the BQ wasn't an option. The real question who comes third? Prior to last week's long gun vote, we would have said the CPC but the outcome is not popular at all in urban Quebec. Watch for the Liberals to squeek past the CPC for third place.
    09 11 06 R.O.
    The ndp support over the years in this riding tells an interesting story if you look back they were actually somewhat competitive here before the bloc entered in 1993 as they got over 8000 votes and a strong 3rd place finish in 88. but then once the bloc came along ndp support in the riding dropped to less than 1000 votes in 93-2000 elections. only to start to return by 2004 election and now once again getting well over 6000 votes here. so they are definitely competitive here and i expect Jean Claude Rocheleau to come in second . what i find also interesting is how uncompetitive the liberals are here as this is a montreal riding yet there candidate Robert David doesn't appear to be that in the race as he possibly entered it too late and doesn't have much profile in the montreal area . but in the end i expect Daniel Paille to hold the seat for the bloc but by a much closer margin than 08 election.
    09 11 04 Acadien
    Recent Crop poll shows overall NDP suport up to 16% in Quebec, and Layton as preferred pm over all contenders. Will this translate into an NDP win in Hochelaga?
    Probably not.
    But watch for a large increase in % of popular vote for the dippers here. Likely even displacing Libs for 2nd
    09 10 30 binriso
    Of course, if there is a low turnout in this riding, the NDP could win and that will likely happen. There will be no doubt a loss of BQ support since one of their original 93ers has stepped down after 16 years. The NDP did fairly well here last time and could take it, since they have a good candidate with a more controversial candidate for the BQ. CPC and Liberals are probably non-factors here.
    09 10 18 David Y.
    In 1975, then P.M. Pierre Trudeau tried to get his friend, Pierre Juneau, into the House of Commons by creating a vacancy in a 'safe' Liberal seat, but the voters of that riding didn't agree with having a candidate forced upon them, and in the subsequent by-election, Juneau lost.
    The riding? Hochelaga!
    Are we seeing history repeating itself again?
    I wouldn't be so quick to think this is an easy win for the Bloc.
    With Rocheleau as a repeat candidate, the NDP stand a much better chance of winning than the Liberal appointed candidate.
    It's going to be close, but I think a 1975-style upset may be in the works!
    NDP gain!
    09 10 06 Top Can Inc.
    This riding is in the Bloc's East End Montreal stronghold. Easy win for them, but the real story is how the Liberals fare. Can they increase their vote from 08 and remain in a strong second place showing?
    Also, this seat's status should be shown as vacant, not Bloc.
    09 10 05 expat
    The Bloc has to be considered the favourite here - the political history and strong sovereignist leanings make it hard to argue anything else.
    Yet this by-election has potential to be something different than the usual easy Bloc win seen here.
    If Daniel Paill? wins the BQ nomination over the more progressive Jean Baribeau, it will seriously test the riding's commitment to the Bloc. The question is whether the reaction of left-leaning activists would translate to actual votes for the NDP from average, less-committed voters. (Although perhaps one indication is that Qu?bec solidaire hasn't performed all that well in the Hochlega polling stations, doing better in more ?yuppified? National Assembly ridings closer to the centre of Montr?al than in the more working class areas further east.
    It is truly difficult to understand why the BQ party leadership wants to install Daniel Paill? as the candidate here - he is from the conservative/corporatist wing of the Bloc, and truly ill-suited for a left-wing riding like this.
    Is a NDP win possible here? Going from 3rd place and 15% of the vote to a win is a very difficult task. It is a remote possibility, but one that could play out.
    Certainly Rochleau is a very good NDP candidate for Hochlega, a labour union leader is this largely working class area. As the only nominated candidate so far, he has a leg up on campaign preparedness. If the Bloc contest is divisive and lasts much longer into the few weeks before the election, it will be difficult to unify the party and get the base excited for this short campaign.
    Turnout will be lower than in a general election, so the NDP has the opportunity to concentrate resources here and engage in a heavy ground campaign. The prospect of a second seat in Qu?bec, and especially breaking through in Francophone east Montr?al, must be extremely appealing to Layton/Mulcair et al, and if there is any chance of an upset here, they'll pour campaign resources in.
    If Baribeau wins the BQ nomination, count this as a safe BQ seat. But if Paill? runs for the Bloc, this will be a race to watch. Still likely to be held by the Bloc, but an upset wouldn't be entirely out of the question.
    09 10 05 Paul Tremblay
    Some posters seem to be extremely misinformed about this riding and federal politics in Quebec generally.
    The NDP only gets significant support among francophones in Quebec when separatists believe that voting NDP is the only way to avoid a Liberal win. Hochelaga is one of the most separatist ridings in Quebec and everyone in the riding understands that a Liberal win is not in the cards.
    Even if the NDP manages to get some support from Bloc voters who are unhappy about the Bloc candidate, it won't be enough to make this race close. Experience suggests that the vast majority of Bloc supporters do not switch to another party even if they are unhappy about the candidate (see for instance the 2000 results in Chicoutimi).
    The Bloc will keep this riding; the real race here is for second place.
    09 10 05 Smok Wawelski
    Up until now, probably one of the more boring ridings for armchair pundits such as ourselves, but by-elections have a way of not turning out quite as planned.
    I would still consider the Bloc overwhelming favourites here, perhaps to the tune of 75%-25% chance of winning, but that 25% chnce goes to the NDP, the only other party the voters in this very left wing riding might consider.
    If the party-and it is in the best interest of Tom Mulcair to do so- places all its militants and resources at the disposal of Jean paul Rocheleau, this one is within reach. Much also depends on how hungry the Bloc is to retain it, since they would have an organizational advantage.
    Nevertheless the NDP should be highly motivated to win this, as it would add credibility to Mulcair as more than a one hit wonder as he prepares to defend against Martin Cauchon.
    The Tories and Liberals are simply also rans in Hochelaga.
    09 10 03 Gone Fishing
    I agree with David Y, this could be much like Outremont. The fact is a lot of Quebeckers would embrace the NDP if they didn't believe the Bloc was so effective an alternative to the Libs and Conservatives. My question is whether or not the Bloc can actually fail when they are riding so high in the polls?
    Somehow somewhere the people of Quebec will turn their backs on the separatist experiment but I have a tough time seeing that happening too soon.
    09 09 28 Nick J Boragina
    This is info submitted regarding a possible by-election in the riding, should the Federal election not take place...
    This riding was held by R?al M?nard from the Bloc for 16 years. He is resigning to run for Borough Mayor of Hochelaga. This would appear to be a significant step down for M?nard, who may be planning to remove himself from federal politics in order to make a move elsewhere, either hoping that his municipal party's candidate for Mayor (The interim PQ leader before Boisclair) loses so he can run next time. He might be taking this step back in order to free himself to run for the leadership of the Bloc Queebcois (a very puzzling move if this is his plan) or as a way to transfer to the Parti Quebecois (again, would not make much sense) Regardless of why, he is no longer the MP of this riding. This riding is one of the more left-wing on the island of Montreal. It is one of the 4 ridings that has been solid for the Bloc since 93. M?nard and the Bloc won the riding in 2008 with 49.7% of the vote. The Liberals were next with 20.7% and the NDP with 14.4%. 2006 saw the Bloc get 55.6% with the Liberals at 17.2%, and the Tories in third with 12.2%. 2004 and 2000 saw the Bloc get near or above 50%. 1997 was when the riding came closest to flipping, with the Bloc still taking near 50%, and over 7,000 more votes than the second placed Liberals. While I would not be surprised to see the NDP creep into second place on a weak bloc showing, I would be surprised if anyone except the Bloc Quebecois wins this riding.
    09 09 21 David Y.
    Given the apparent in-fighting in the Bloc ranks about the candidate being forced upon them, should a by-election be called here, an Outremont-type result is looking more and more possible, since Jack Layton was named in a recent poll as the most popular federal party leader in Montreal, Rocheleau will be a repeat candidate, and NDP support has nearly tripled since the 2004 election.
    09 09 04 DL
    This riding just got very very interesting. Real Menard is stepping down after 15 years and he had a large personal following. The NDP candidate is Jean-Claude Rocheleau who is head of the union representing all the refinery workers in the east end of Montreal. He ran last time on a shoestring campaign and more than double the NDP vote. Now not only is Menard out of the picture, but there is now fratricidal civil war in the local BQ camp. Duceppe has hand picked Daniel Paille a rightwing business leader who was a flop as PQ cabinet minister in the mid-90s to be the new BQ candidate in Hochelaga (its hard to imagine a BQ riding more UNsuited to Paille's brand of politics than Hochelaga. For the NDP this would equivalent to Libby Davies retiring and Jack Layton the chief economist of CIBC as the new NDP candidate and not letting the local members have any say). Apparently the locals are in revolt and many BQ supporters will back Rocheleau. This could produce an Outremont style surpise - especially if there is no fall election and we have a byelection instead.
    09 08 26 JF Breton
    Circonscription électorale francophone et fortement indépendantiste. Malgré le départ de Ménard (BQ) pour la politique municipale, je vois mal comment les Libéraux - le principal opposant - pourrait renverser une majorité de 12000 voix en 2008. Château-fort bloquiste.

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