Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011

Laval-Les Îles

La prévision a changé
2011-05-01 09:44:00

Profil de circonscription


Bakhos, Stéphane

Ghavitian, Zaki

Jetha, Mohamedali

Joizil, Karine

Neil, Brent

Pilon, François

Tsakanikas, Polyvios

Raymonde Folco

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • laval-ouest (189/240 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 05 02 AR
    The NDP are bound to pick up seats from the conservatives and the liberals. I'm not sure what data people have been looking at but liberal support in Quebec has dropped from 23% (from the last election) to only 15% (in the lastest polls). Conservative support has also dropped from 21% to 15% so the NDP are receiving support from federalists too, not just 'soft nationalists'. If this is the case, the NDP should win this seat.
    11 05 01 expat
    The Liberals should manage to barely hang on to Laval-les Iles, but they will be hard pressed by the NDP here.
    In 2008, retiring MP Folco won with 40%, easily besting the Bloc's 24%, Conservative 21%, and NDP 12%.
    The 36% allophone population here is the highest of the Laval ridings, and probably means the Liberal vote isn't going to erode to the NDP at the same rate as it is in other parts of great Montreal. It should provide the new Liberal candidate with just enough votes to eke out a victory over the NDP - although I would not be terribly surprised to see a close election go the other way either.
    11 04 26 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Those last comments were meant for ‘Laval’ not ‘Laval les Iles’. This riding will stay with the Liberals as Liberal numbers have been static in Quebec, while BQ numbers (their main competetor in this riding) are being devoured by the NDP.
    11 04 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    So Duceppe has dragged out former premier parizeau and stepped up the seperatists rhetoric in light of Jackomania in Quebec. This might not be a good move as doing so will turn off soft nationalists and get the non-francophone communities to turning out in droves to vote against the BQ. This riding has not grown as much as other near-by ridings but it still has a large number of voters who'd be galvanized to vote against the BQ with the old school us-or-them mentality of the separatists. can easily see NDP taking soft francophone votes while non francophones going Liberal. This could be a three way or even four way race now.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    Raymonde Folco may not be seeking re-election but this riding has always had a strong federalist tilt. The BQ may have pockets of support but not enough to win here.
    11 04 11 Paul Tremblay
    The Bloc is just strong enough historically in this riding to be seen as a threat by federalist voters, and the fact that the Bloc candidate also ran here in 2008 certainly contributes to this perception.
    This riding has been Liberal since 1993 and for that reason (and also the high number of allophones in the riding) it is obvious to everyone that the Liberal Party is the one clear federalist alternative to the Bloc even though the incumbent Liberal MP is not running again.
    Karine Joizil will win by at least 6,000 votes.
    11 04 10
    The LIberal base is holding..the New Liberal candidate, a lawyer with Haitian roots will hold on for the Liberal against the same Bloc candidate who lost in 08..
    11 04 05 Marco Ricci
    The Liberals have now selected their new candidate for this riding. It will be lawyer Karine Joizil. She is new to politics and does not have the experience of running a campaign, whereas BQ candidate Mohamedali Jetha ran in the riding last time and is more familiar with running a campaign in the riding.
    Luckily for Joizel, the riding has voted Liberal for quite a few elections and so she starts with a base of support built in. She will have to hope that the Liberal base in the riding will outweigh her inexperience and late start to the campaign.
    11 03 30 Pierre Poirier
    Anyone who believes that this riding will elect anyone but whatever candidate is chosen by Michael Ignatieff is mistaken. This is solid Liberal territory. If the Liberals were to lose here, they would lose all their seats in Quebec. It won't happen
    11 03 29 Jack Monteith
    Raymonde Folco is 71 years old. That may be all there is to her resignation.
    11 03 28 Marco Ricci
    Raymonde Folco has suddenly retired as the Liberal MP for this riding.
    This leaves her party in the lurch at the start of an election. Is she leaving because of the declining Liberal poll numbers in Quebec? If so, this is not a good sign for the Liberals, and they could lose this riding to the Bloc if they don't find a good candidate.
    09 09 05 Marco Ricci
    Another Liberal riding where there was a close race between the Liberals and the BQ in 2006. However, in 2008, the Liberals managed to increase their vote here slightly while the BQ dropped by 10 percentage points. This riding looks out of reach for the BQ.
    09 08 29 JF Breton
    Au fil du temps, Folco est devenue indélogeable dans sa circonscription, tous les candidats se sont cassés les dents contre elle. Les commentateurs l'ont régulièrement décrite comme en danger, ce qui ne fut jamais réellement le cas. Victoire libérale.

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